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Message: [QUOTE="OrangeXtreme, post: 2779912, member: 41"] [MEDIA=twitter]1063121569134886912[/MEDIA] Easier to do, I think, in the nfl because college kids do weird things. In 2018, defense doesn’t win championships, quarterbacks do. NFL, college. All the same, the best teams have great quarterbacks. In college football, the top-5 passers in terms of efficiency have a starting record of 42-3. They all lead top-10 football teams. The rest of the top-10 in the stat all have their teams at or near the top of its conference. Between ND & Syracuse, the quarterback position is much more efficient for the fighting Irish. Cuse hasn’t played well vs pass efficient defenses all year & its best games are against NC State and UCONN, State currently ranked 96th in the stat, UCONN last in the country at 129. ND’s pass defense is ranked 6th in the country and doesn’t give up many big plays. Insert explosiveness. ND’s yards per play averages aren’t much higher than Syracuse’s. 6.0 vs. 5.8. This leads me to believe that if Syracuse wants to win, its ground game will need to help. RPO action, play action whatever can slightly effect pass defense. Neal, Strickland need to have an effect this week. On special teams, love Szymt but kicking field goals is losing football. If you average less than 3.5 points on trips inside the 40, a study in 2013 shows you have a little over a 60% chance of losing. On the other hand, hofrichter is winning Syracuse games. Syracuse has won the field position battle most of the season. Finally turnover margin, Cuse is 8-2 because they win the FP battle & take the ball away. Best measure of a defense, imo. That and redzone D. Anyway, they’ll need to take the ball away if they want to keep it close. +1 in the turnover margin gives you a 65% of winning. +2, 79% So we have those, now, considering other variables, if I’m looking for a way Syracuse wins—I’m thinking a pass rush could effect ND’s passer effiecency and contribute to some turnovers. I’d also think a ground game would open Syracuse passing offense & help them become explosive. Hoffy hasn’t had a bad game yet, and special teams will be key too. Less field goals, more touchdowns though. If you’re looking for Cuse to win, I think it’s best to watch those four major categories and the small variables contributing to each. [/QUOTE]

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