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Message: [QUOTE="HtownOrange, post: 297857, member: 622"] Facts: - Four Big 12 schools left the Big 12 - All of the remaining schools have attempted to leave the Big 12, several within the past years - UT dominates the Big 12 politics - OU lacks academics to garner and invite by the prestigious conferences on its own record as evidenced by their failure to secure an invite - The remaining schools are not primary targets of expansion as seen by the latest actions in expansion - Kansas, Kansas St. Iowa State, Baylor, TCU, TTech and Oklahoma State are NOT major draws - FSU's chances of being placed in the same division with UT and OU are slim - FSU travel expenses in the big12 will go up, estimated at 40%, or $2.4MM - FSU already has a 3rd tier deal in place at $6.5MM - FSU faces an ACC buyout of $20-$25MM - FSU will have to buy in to the Big 12 (WVU and TCU are receiving (50% payout 1st year, estimated 67%, 2nd year and estimated 84% 3rd year, full payout 4th year - this amounts to about a $20MM buy in) - Using the buy in and buy outs, FSU is already down $40-$45 MM, assuming a $5MM/year increase, it will take 8-9 years to break even. If FSU gets the same assistance WVU gets, that break even point is reduced by 1-2 years, but this does not factor in the cost of travel which will extend that break even point. - FSU is NOT selling out current games but the idea is that the Big 12 teams (KSU, Kansas, ISU, TTech, Baylor, OSU, TCU) will pack the house. UT and OU should pack the house and WVU with their traveling fans is a safe bet to pack the house. - All TV contracts are back end loaded. Thus, comparing the alleged $20MM Big 12 deal with the current low base estimate of the ACC at $14MM is disingenuous by bloggers and pundits. The reality is the ACC just paid more out than the low ball estimate and the Big 12 is still under the old contract and not the extension that pays the average $20MM. Additionally, the the Big 12 payout was inflated this season by splitting the deal 8 ways, collecting buyouts and splitting the championship game money (which fox has continued though it is not played). I agree with you that we are not hearing official word that FSU and the Big 12 have talked, and we likely will not. I'm sure the Big 12 has been scrambling for many months to secure whatever they could. They took TCU and WVU with little effort, but they were Big East teams and Syracuse and Pitt had already left. Going to the Big 12 was a good move for them. FSU is in a good, stable conference which has a good payday (albeit, it was negotiated at a bad time without competing bidders). I'm confident they are performing their due diligence. However, when you factor in the above information which has been released by official sources you can reasonably estimate what will happen. Can they do something different? Yes. Can they have other information that makes it an offer they cannot refuse? Yes. But neither usually happens. [/QUOTE]

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