Whither expansion?

[longtimefan]

With the decision by the Pac-12 to stand pat (not bow to Texas?), the landscape has changed.

The ACC, SEC (with MO?) and Big 10 can stand pat, as the Pac -12 has.

But the Big 12 and Big East continue to be unstable.

I think the key is UT vs OU in the Big 12. Can they continue to co-exist? OU has announced that they are willing to remain in the Big 12, with some major modifications, the chief of which seems to be reining in the LHN. But Texas has shown that they aren't willing to give much ground on that issue. So what can OU do if the Longhorns aren't willing be more of an equal partner? The west is shut off. Despite the Sooners'
major brand, I don't think the Big 10 would be interested, especially with OKSt being part of a package deal. But how about the SEC? As the most powerful football conference, they certainly don't need another big time program, and they have already secured entry into the Texas market. So what choice does OU have but to continue to be UT's lapdog?

Now, if Missouri does, in fact, leave: is the Big 12 willing to continue as an 8-team conference? If not, who are the replacement candidates? This where the Big East may get involved. If the Longhorns want to add a couple of teams, everything might be blown up again. And the BE will look like a pile of rubble.

 

[BonevilleJacket]

As things stand right now, you have a 14-team ACC, and 12-team Pac12 and B1G. The problem is the 13-member SEC and 9-member Big IX. I don't see that working at all at odd numbers. The Big IX isn't in a position of power whatsoever, but I think they *may* be able to lure a team like BYU or TCU. On the other hand, Mizzou to the SEC would even things out for a while.

 

[BlackKnight76]

9 should be fine for the BXII since there aren't any divisions, but the SEC probably needs to poach one.

 

[OrangeMuskyFish]

Now, if Missouri does, in fact, leave: is the Big 12 willing to continue as an 8-team conference? If not, who are the replacement candidates? This where the Big East may get involved. If the Longhorns want to add a couple of teams, everything might be blown up again. And the BE will look like a pile of rubble.[/quote]

How bout adding TCU, West Virginia, and Houston.

 

[texascpa]

Adding teams to the Big 9 doesn't solve the underlying problem: OU does not like the LHN. This is what led A&M to flee. OU doesn't have many choices it would seem.

 

[All4SU]

Have to think the SEC will move forward to add 1 -- probably Missouri as has been rumored. Mizzou is in a difficult spot now, if they are waiting on the B10, they may have to wait a long time with no guarantees. At least the SEC gives them something -- namely the strongest FB conference in the country, even if it isn't Mizzou's first choice. (See B10)

No one in the B12 (Big9) besides Missouri is going to do anything right now. They are all going to wait on Texas. Ok and OkSt would jump at an offer from the P12 if it came right now. But that looks like a non-starter for the time being.

TCU has to be thinking long and hard about the choice they made. They might be better off aligning with the B12(9), and I have to think that that Conference would take them right now to bolster FB, and simply increase their numbers. While the BE may offer TCU a more direct path to the BCS, it doesn't position them any better for a subsequent move to the SEC or something else better. There may yet be a 5th superconference, and if there is, middle-America is the place to be.

The Big East is in a bind. Without the strong possibility of grabbing up teams from the B12(9) now, they are left to consider teams currently out of the BCS mix: UCF, ECU, Memphis, (and other assorted ConfUSA teams) plus Army, Navy, Airforce. At the same time, they don't want to increase their numbers to the extent that they hinder a possible merger with the B12(9) leftovers down the road. They really don't want to get larger than 9 or 10 FB playing teams.

My guess is that they convince TCU to stay on board (bad move for TCU), and swallow hard and take UCF into the BE to get to 9.

 

[Scooch]

9 should be fine for the BXII since there aren't any divisions, but the SEC probably needs to poach one.

The Big XII signed a TV contract for 10 teams, and the "inventory" that number of teams brings. I suspect they need to stay at 10 or that contract may be either voided or downgraded.

 

[Faegan]

The Big XII signed a TV contract for 10 teams, and the "inventory" that number of teams brings. I suspect they need to stay at 10 or that contract may be either voided or downgraded.

If the Big 12 can get their infighting under control, it makes so much sense to add at least one team. I'd be looking to add Louisville or Cincy.

 

[BlazeOrange]

The B1G 10 and Pac-12 (two traditionally conservative conferences) have made major moves going to 12 teams this year. Their recent focus has been on revamping schedules to accomodate the additions (in all sports) and they haven't even played their first conference championship game yet. With all of those moving parts, while they will of course look at further expansion, I think they would be reluctant to get bigger right now unless UT or ND are involved and it can be accomplished smoothly.

The only conferences to go beyond 12 teams are those that have already been at this point for several years, so 12 to 14 isn't such a seismic shift. They stay ahead of the curve while retaining room for one (or two) of the big boys who are being courted by everyone. Once they get to 16, it is over for them, so I don't see them jumping the gun just to fill the space until they're sure that the Irish, Longhorns, maybe Sooners are no longer an option.

The rest are feeder conferences and there is only one opening for sure in the short term, unless the Missou rumours are true for the first time in all of this. Once the SEC evens out, I'd expect the Big 4 to take a breather for a while (like a year or so) and the only movement will be the minor conferences shoring up their losses. All of these teams are on the Wait List until the next big shift, where we might actually see the 4x16 form.

If I'm right, it puts us in a sweet position of having a recruiting season or more jump on our local competition who will be left twisting for a bit until they are ultimately picked up.

 

[44PRIDE]

I really think Missouri is gone to the SEC with aTm. Cinci, LVille, WVU, BYU, and TCU will be used to fill the holes in the B12. ACC stays put at 14 teams...

...Honestly, WHO THE HELL KNOWS WHAT'S GOING TO HAPPEN!

 

[SouthernCuse]

If you are in the BE, do you jump to the Big 12? 4 weeks ago I would have said sure, but the way things are running the Big XII could be toast by the time you paid your exit fee and your time commitment, you could be in a league with Iowa state, Kansas(x2), and Baylor. If you are WVU and you are sure the SEC said no, then perhaps you do, but if you really want to be 15 or 16 in the ACC you don't.

I am not sure the previous pecking order rules apply, when the Big XII could blow sky high at any time.

 

[orangepassion]

I thought Texas didn't want TCU in the Big 12

 

[BlackKnight76]

The Big XII signed a TV contract for 10 teams, and the "inventory" that number of teams brings. I suspect they need to stay at 10 or that contract may be either voided or downgraded.

Ah, didn't realize that.

 

[Scooch]

If you are in the BE, do you jump to the Big 12? 4 weeks ago I would have said sure, but the way things are running the Big XII could be toast by the time you paid your exit fee and your time commitment, you could be in a league with Iowa state, Kansas(x2), and Baylor. If you are WVU and you are sure the SEC said no, then perhaps you do, but if you really want to be 15 or 16 in the ACC you don't.

I am not sure the previous pecking order rules apply, when the Big XII could blow sky high at any time.

I would jump. Look at it this way... if somehow the Big XII stays intact for the long-term you put yourself in a conference with Texas, Oklahoma, OK State and Kansas, and get a huge raise over your Big East TV money. If you jump and it falls apart, well, you'll just end up back in a Big XII/Big East merged conference anyway.

And we're talking about this potentially being an option for probably only WVU and Lousiville (maybe Cincy I guess). None of them is getting into the ACC, Big Ten, or SEC anyway.

So might as well cash in and hope for the best.

 

[Cuseology]

As long as there is uneven revenue sharing in the Big 12 theyvare as unstable as the BE. Not sure why anyone would switch from one to the other under the current scenario. I can more imagine KU, KSU moving to the BE before movement in the other direction.

 

[Scooch]

As long as there is uneven revenue sharing in the Big 12 theyvare as unstable as the BE. Not sure why anyone would switch from one to the other under the current scenario. I can more imagine KU, KSU moving to the BE before movement in the other direction.

Because you're going to make 2-3X the money even with that uneven revenue distribution. And if the thing blows up you'll just go back to the Big East anyway.

 

[longtimefan]

Because you're going to make 2-3X the money even with that uneven revenue distribution. And if the thing blows up you'll just go back to the Big East anyway.

How about exit fees, and entry fees? Not to mention 27-month waiting periods.

 

[Cuseology]

Because you're going to make 2-3X the money even with that uneven revenue distribution. And if the thing blows up you'll just go back to the Big East anyway.

I am skeptical that B12 teams not names UT are making that much money. If so, i agree with you but i think that conference is more at risk than some form of the BE.