Why does everyone think there will be 16-team superconferences?

[SU2NASA]

There's not enough teams to go around. I think 14 becomes the new 16.

SEC at 14: Who else do they take? Their only real option would be to raid the ACC and go after schools already in their footprint to get to 16.

Pac 12 at 12: I don't see anyone that they'd take now with Texas and Oklahoma not going anywhere.

Big Ten at 12: The only free agents are Rutgers and UConn. Kansas and Iowa State aren't walking through that door. Even if they take those two, that's only 14.

ACC at 14: So there's UConn and Rutgers as the only real free agents. Why would they go to 16 when no one else is?

I don't see anyone going to 16 now that the Big 12 is going to stay in business. And if this is where it ends, ND has no motivation to give up independence and the carousel is done spinning.

I think the numbers game more than anything is what should panic Rutgers and UConn.

 

[44PRIDE]

With the B12' survival, the 4x16 model isn't acheivable...much less a 5x16 model.

 

[orangenirvana]

With the B12' survival, the 4x16 model isn't acheivable...much less a 5x16 model.

The Big 12's "survival" is very temporary.

I don't think there's any question that Texas, Oklahoma, OSU and TT still have their bags packed and ready for the inevitable Pac-16 invite.

I give it 10 years - tops.

Then the sh#t hits the fan...again.

 

[longislandcuse]

The Big 12's "survival" is very temporary.

I don't think there's any question that Texas, Oklahoma, OSU and TT still have their bags packed and ready for the inevitable Pac-16 invite.

I give it 10 years - tops.

Then the sh#t hits the fan...again.

Whatever it takes to keep Rutgers and UCONN in Big East purgatory for as long as possible.

 

[SU2NASA]

The Big 12's "survival" is very temporary.

I don't think there's any question that Texas, Oklahoma, OSU and TT still have their bags packed and ready for the inevitable Pac-16 invite.

I give it 10 years - tops.

Then the sh#t hits the fan...again.

If it takes 10 years, Rutgers and UConn will be mid-major schools in Conference USA II.

 

[kyleslamb]

The Big 12's "survival" is very temporary.

I don't think there's any question that Texas, Oklahoma, OSU and TT still have their bags packed and ready for the inevitable Pac-16 invite.

I give it 10 years - tops.

Then the sh#t hits the fan...again.

I'll go you one better... I give it 5 years tops.

I don't even think Texas is planning on staying very long. I still believe they'll wind up in the Big Ten by 2015.

 

[Orangemen]

It'll never happen.

4x16 is a nice round number, so it picked up steam, but as you pointed out, there is very little reason for any conference to expand beyond 14.

The only reasons out there are Texas and ND. So, at most, 2 conferences could expand beyond 14 at some point. But Texas is locked up for 6 years now, and ND will probably never join a conference for football.

 

[arbitragegls]

...and Notre Dame is coming to the ACC regardless...sans full football immediately; probably 4-5 conference games until contract with NBC runs out in 2015 then all in. All there other sports teams belong in the ACC...no lax, not much soccer in Big 12...etc

 

[kyleslamb]

It'll never happen.

4x16 is a nice round number, so it picked up steam, but as you pointed out, there is very little reason for any conference to expand beyond 14.

The only reasons out there are Texas and ND. So, at most, 2 conferences could expand beyond 14 at some point. But Texas is locked up for 6 years now, and ND will probably never join a conference for football.

Texas isn't locked up. That whole "commitment" thing was floated but never actually done. Nothing was ever signed (nor do I surmise it will be).

 

[orangenirvana]

It'll never happen.

4x16 is a nice round number, so it picked up steam, but as you pointed out, there is very little reason for any conference to expand beyond 14.

The only reasons out there are Texas and ND. So, at most, 2 conferences could expand beyond 14 at some point. But Texas is locked up for 6 years now, and ND will probably never join a conference for football.

Never is a very long time.

And 6 years is basically next week.

 

[omniorange]

Texas isn't locked up. That whole "commitment" thing was floated but never actually done. Nothing was ever signed (nor do I surmise it will be).

Are you sure about this? I could have sworn I read it was an 8-0 formal vote by the Big 12 Board of Directors that was actually placed into the constitutional by-laws like all other exit clauses - since that basically is what it is - an exit clause out of the conference. TCU had to agree to it in writing when they joined as well.

Missouri was the only one who did not vote on it by advise of legal counsel.

Cheers,
Neil

 

[Scooch]

I've been saying all along that there most likely won't be some monolithic 4X16 or 5X14 model for the short or mid-term future. The dollars don't work for everyone to expand that much.

 

[omniorange]

The Big 12's "survival" is very temporary.

I don't think there's any question that Texas, Oklahoma, OSU and TT still have their bags packed and ready for the inevitable Pac-16 invite.

I give it 10 years - tops.

Then the sh#t hits the fan...again.

I think there will be a Big 12 for a long time, but whether or not the Texahoma schools remain in said league beyond the 6 years grant of TV rights period is the key question.

They've avoided the Pac twice now. Will the third time be the charm? Stay tuned. We should know in about 5 years time.

Cheers,
Neil

 

[omniorange]

I've been saying all along that there most likely won't be some monolithic 4X16 or 5X14 model for the short or mid-term future. The dollars don't work for everyone to expand that much.

Agree about 4X16, but more because there just aren't enough quality programs to make it work academically, economically and (I say this laughingly with what is going on now) somewhat geographically.

Sure the Pac would willingly take the Texahoma schools if they played nice to get them to 16. And the SEC could take WVU and possibly Louisville to get to 16. Granted the Cards duplicate a market, but they also provide the second best bb match-up after Duke-UNC and the SEC needs help in basketball moreso than football anyway.

But what do the ACC and BiG do?

There's ND and Rutgers for the BiG or ND and UConn for the ACC, but no other combos would meet either leagues academic and geographic desires to make sense economically to expand with any other candidates at this moment in time and for the foreseeable future.

Cheers,
Neil

 

[kingottoiii]

I've been saying all along that there most likely won't be some monolithic 4X16 or 5X14 model for the short or mid-term future. The dollars don't work for everyone to expand that much.

If the 4 networks went all in, it would work easily.

The CBS conference. The NBC/Vs/Comcast conference. The FOX/FSN conference. The ABC/ESPN conference. FOX and NBC already have the infrastructure and seem interested.

 

[storange]

sucks

 

[kyleslamb]

Are you sure about this? I could have sworn I read it was an 8-0 formal vote by the Big 12 Board of Directors that was actually placed into the constitutional by-laws like all other exit clauses - since that basically is what it is - an exit clause out of the conference. TCU had to agree to it in writing when they joined as well.

Missouri was the only one who did not vote on it by advise of legal counsel.

Cheers,
Neil

I apologize... I actually missed that news. I just did a search and it appears you're correct about that.

One thing I found interesting... it only secures a 6-year commitment for ESPN & Fox telecasts. Why I find that interesting? I've been hearing for a few months that one of the plans being discussed with Texas and Notre Dame would involve the Big Ten joining Comcast for tier 1/2 games to be on NBC & NBC Sports.

This means that Texas could go off to the Big Ten and be broadcast on NBC with no contractual obligations interfering.

 

[omniorange]

I apologize... I actually missed that news. I just did a search and it appears you're correct about that.

One thing I found interesting... it only secures a 6-year commitment for ESPN & Fox telecasts. Why I find that interesting? I've been hearing for a few months that one of the plans being discussed with Texas and Notre Dame would involve the Big Ten joining Comcast for tier 1/2 games to be on NBC & NBC Sports.

This means that Texas could go off to the Big Ten and be broadcast on NBC with no contractual obligations interfering.

Other than their Tier 3 rights which will leave ESPN and go to the BTN, since the BiG will not accept anyone who isn't an equal partner.

Still think the UT and ND to the BiG is as big a pipe dream for BiG fans as PSU and ND to the ACC is for ACC fans.

Cheers,
Neil

 

[kyleslamb]

Other than their Tier 3 rights which will leave ESPN and go to the BTN, since the BiG will not accept anyone who isn't an equal partner.

Still think the UT and ND to the BiG is as big a pipe dream for BiG fans as PSU and ND to the ACC is for ACC fans.

Cheers,
Neil

I think the Big Ten is willing to work around the tier-3 issue. They've discussed the idea of regional BTN2 channels as well as simply letting Texas keep the LHN but not partake in BTN dividends. Texas could have rights to all non-conference home games not scooped up by the tier 1/2 rights. I actually kind of think it's ironic because it was the Big Ten's firm commitment to equal partnership that strengthened the resolve of other conferences standing up to inequality, yet I believe the Big Ten would make such a concession in the right circumstances.

 

[Stern]

With the B12' survival, the 4x16 model isn't acheivable...much less a 5x16 model.

isn't achievable within the next 5 years or so. Once Texas upsets the apple cart in the Big 12 (which they will in time, give them enough rope and they will hang themselves they always do)... the 4 Super Conferences of 16 will happen.

And why is 4 conferences of 16 a big deal. Because at 4 super-conferences they can split away from the NCAA for football and do their own thing and keep every penny. And if the NCAA plays hardball and says well then we won't share the NCAA Basketball money with you, the 4 super-conference can do their own thing for March Madness (4X16=64), make more money and turn the tournament into the NIT. It's about leverage. At 4 super conferences they keep all the money for Football. And stay in the NCAA for b'ball and get that huge payday. If the NCAA gets upset, they break away and do their own b'ball thing. They make the NCAA powerless and can call every shot and keep all the money.

 

[omniorange]

I think the Big Ten is willing to work around the tier-3 issue. They've discussed the idea of regional BTN2 channels as well as simply letting Texas keep the LHN but not partake in BTN dividends. Texas could have rights to all non-conference home games not scooped up by the tier 1/2 rights. I actually kind of think it's ironic because it was the Big Ten's firm commitment to equal partnership that strengthened the resolve of other conferences standing up to inequality, yet I believe the Big Ten would make such a concession in the right circumstances.

I don't for the reason you just cited. There isn't a more anal conference out there than the BiG when it comes to nipping in the bud anything that even has the "appearance" of granting one of its members special privileges. They go overboard in terms of equal sharing as is evidenced by their ticket revenue sharing plan.

But its fun for BiG fans to speculate on such things. I find it similar to us ACC fans who imagine that conference will form an academic consortium on a par with the CIC to lure PSU away.

Cheers,
Neil

 

[kyleslamb]

I don't for the reason you just cited. There isn't a more anal conference out there than the BiG when it comes to nipping in the bud anything that even has the "appearance" of granting one of its members special privileges. They go overboard in terms of equal sharing as is evidenced by their ticket revenue sharing plan.

But its fun for BiG fans to speculate on such things. I find it similar to us ACC fans who imagine that conference will form an academic consortium on a par with the CIC to lure PSU away.

Cheers,
Neil

Well, if it weren't for knowing the Big Ten and Texas have already had pretty specific conversations on the topic, I'd be inclined to agree. But it's hard to pass it off as B1G fans speculating when there's tangible reasons why the speculation is occurring... because the Big Ten has indeed discussed such proposals with Texas. We'll see if anything comes to fruition, but rest assured they most definitely haven't dismissed such a possibility out of hand.

 

[omniorange]

Well, if it weren't for knowing the Big Ten and Texas have already had pretty specific conversations on the topic, I'd be inclined to agree. But it's hard to pass it off as B1G fans speculating when there's tangible reasons why the speculation is occurring... because the Big Ten has indeed discussed such proposals with Texas. We'll see if anything comes to fruition, but rest assured they most definitely haven't dismissed such a possibility out of hand.

I've seen "claims" the BiG and UT have had these discussions, but still the only public affirmation of the BiG and UT in talks I have ever seen was last summer when the UT president when asked point blank about going to the BiG literally laughed at the notion that Texas would leave the warm climate to go play in a cold-weather conference.

We do have public confirmation of UT's talks with the Pac-12, however.

Cheers,
Neil

 

[kyleslamb]

I've seen "claims" the BiG and UT have had these discussions, but still the only public affirmation of the BiG and UT in talks I have ever seen was last summer when the UT president when asked point blank about going to the BiG literally laughed at the notion that Texas would leave the warm climate to go play in a cold-weather conference.

We do have public confirmation of UT's talks with the Pac-12, however.

Cheers,
Neil

Surely you agree that public confirmation is often an unreliable determination in reading the landscape. After all, there was absolutely no public confirmation of Syracuse/Pittsburgh going to the ACC until 36-48 hours before it happened.

I believe the comments you're referring to last summer came from DeLoss Dodds, but nonetheless what they say publicly and what they're saying privately are so very different. They have been very forward about talking to the Pac-12 and ACC in the past few months. No question about that. To me... that should tell you something right there. That's straight out of the negotiation playbook--throw out a bunch of false leads and misdirection while keeping your true intentions quiet.

As a matter of fact... there was a small contingent of folks from Ohio State that visited Texas a couple of months ago. From everything I was told by someone within the inner circle there, they weren't in town to discuss the southern climate

(BTW, the people that were tracking all sorts of planes from Big 12 to SEC country also confirmed an OSU plane landing in Austin, though amazingly it didn't get much attention at the time as it got lost in the shuffle of all the Texas A&M stuff)

 

[omniorange]

Surely you agree that public confirmation is often an unreliable determination in reading the landscape. After all, there was absolutely no public confirmation of Syracuse/Pittsburgh going to the ACC until 36-48 hours before it happened.

I believe the comments you're referring to last summer came from DeLoss Dodds, but nonetheless what they say publicly and what they're saying privately are so very different. They have been very forward about talking to the Pac-12 and ACC in the past few months. No question about that. To me... that should tell you something right there. That's straight out of the negotiation playbook--throw out a bunch of false leads and misdirection while keeping your true intentions quiet.

As a matter of fact... there was a small contingent of folks from Ohio State that visited Texas a couple of months ago. From everything I was told by someone within the inner circle there, they weren't in town to discuss the southern climate

(BTW, the people that were tracking all sorts of planes from Big 12 to SEC country also confirmed an OSU plane landing in Austin, though amazingly it didn't get much attention at the time as it got lost in the shuffle of all the Texas A&M stuff)

I have no doubt that the BiG has a continued interest in Texas. I just don't see much evidence of that interest being reciprocated. When they start charting Texas planes going to OSU, let me know.

Cheers,
Neil