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[QUOTE="Millhouse, post: 1139516, member: 78"]
it's not that complicated.  the work has already been done.  it only gets complicated when you start concocting phony psychology to justify that irrational learned fear in your gut

it's easy to come up with crude rules of thumb in favor of going for it that are better for you than crude rules of thumb in favor of kicking.

don't punt past midfield unless it's 4th and 5 or more

if you're starting to worry about running out of time, go for it on 4th and 3 or less once you hit your 40

if you're starting to crap your pants about running out of time, go for it anywhere.

unless a FG wins you the game at the buzzer, go for it on 4th and goal from the 3 or less

IGNORE that it might seal the victory for the other team.  the objective is not to maximize the time where you have a tiny chance.  the objective is to maximize the chance you win.  if that means the game might effectively end at 3:45 instead of 3:50 pm, so be it.

you could do much better than this with a chart, but as crude as this is, it'd be an improvement
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