Why Liberty Will Win | Syracusefan.com

Why Liberty Will Win

SWC75

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- Because they are better than we are. They’ve won 15 of their last 16 games, including a victory over us in the Dome last year, 38-21. We’ve lost 18 of our last 25. They wound up ranked #17 last year, their only loss in a 10-1 season by one point at NC State. We had the opposite record last season and lost to NC State in the Dome by a touchdown. They have 19 of their 22 starters from last year back, including Malik Willis, who could be the highest quarterback drafted by the NFL and even be a Heisman candidate. We don’t know who our quarterback is yet and Coach Hugh Freeze doesn’t care. Liberty is coming here expecting to win no matter who we start.

- And Willis wasn’t even the main reason they beat us last year. That game was even uglier than the 21-38 score indicated. Willis was 16 for 20 for 182 yards, 1TD and no interceptions. He’s normally their leading rusher but last year he had 12 carries for 58 yards and a score. We could have beaten that. And their top running back, Joshua Mack, was out. So Shedro Lewis ran for 170 yards on just 10 carries, including these embarrassingly easy 75 and 57 yard waltzes for scores:


Peyton Pickett did the hard work with 23 carries for 115 yards and another score. They ran for a total of 338 yards in that game. Our own Sean Tucker had a fine game with 21 carries for 111 yards but he didn’t score. But, due to sacks SU wound up with only 97 yards rushing. We couldn’t overcome the difference and The Flames’ heat came against the same Tony White 3-3-5 defense we’re so proud of now.

- Willis takes care of the ball: Liberty has played three games and have yet to turn the ball over. They are +2 on turnovers. We are -3.

- White’s defense has some great numbers right now: 12th in the country against the run, 24th against the pass, 4th in total defense and 29th in scoring defense, (that low only because of a pick six and a botched kick-off return). But that’s against a dreadful Ohio U. team, a Rutgers team with a limited offense and a mediocre FCS team. In 2016, Dino’s first year, we had similar defensive numbers after beating Colgate 33-7. The next week we lost 28-62 to Louisville. It was the same the next year when we opened beat Central Connecticut 50-7. We lost 23-30 to Middle Tennessee State the next week. Two years ago we shut out Liberty in their place, 24-0 – and lost to Maryland the next week 20-63. This is our first game against a genuinely good offensive team and the numbers we accumulated against bad offensive teams don’t matter.

- Does it matter that the SU team that struggled to score even one touchdown against a good Rutgers defense scored 62 points on an FCS team? Probably not. Liberty, by the way is 10th in the country against the run, 28th against the pass, 8th over all and 13th in preventing scores.

- Their defense is based on attacking the other team’s backfield. They have 10 sacks and 21 tackles for a loss so far. Tackle Kendy Charles has four of those sacks. End Durrell Johnson has only one TFL but last year had 11.5, including 8.5 sacks. Tommy DeVito, Dino Babers’ likely choice as his quarterback starter, famously doesn’t do well under pressure and doesn’t throw well on the run. He tends to just give up on a play and throw it out of bounds. Against Rutgers he did that on the first play of the game and got called for grounding the ball. Garrett Schrader, still learning the office also tends to give up on plays early but his answer is to tuck the ball under his shoulder and take on the defense himself, 1 on 11. We may have a lot of ugly plays tonight.

- Dino’s cryptic comment that we’re going to see that some SU players aren’t going to play tonight and say ‘Wow!” is unnerving for SU fans, particularly after what happened last year.

- Liberty “hasn’t played anybody”, (Campbell, Troy and Old Dominion) but neither have we and last year they’d beaten Western Kentucky, Florida international North Alabama and Louisiana-Monroe. It didn’t matter. It just meant that we didn’t realize how good they were. (They went on to beat not only us but Virginia Tech and lost on a botched field goal to NC State by a point- all three games on the road.) Our reaction as that it was huge embarrassment to lose to a team that, like their opposition, probably belongs in FCS, where they came from. We now know who good they are and losing to them would not be embarrassing. It would just be expected.
 
If we have 200 yards passing it is because Devito will have played.

If Devito plays it means we likely lose and fall behind early.

I think if we win tomorrow it’s a 21-17 type score.
 
I'm going to venture a quick guess that you posted this in the wrong thread.

Yup! This is what I get for having too many tabs open.
 

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