SWC75
Bored Historian
- Joined
- Aug 26, 2011
- Messages
- 34,506
- Like
- 67,169
- Stats that favor Notre Dame: Their rush defense is rated #41, giving up 139 yards per game. We are 69th (169). They are 29th in pass defense (191). We are a G-Rob-like #108th (261) and have a lot of injuries in the D-backfield. They are #24 in total defense (330). We are 97th (430). They are 23rd at converting third downs (45.2%) and 16th at converting 4th downs (68.4%). We are 61st (39.9%) and 53rd (56.3%). Red zone defense: 32nd (16TD 6FG in 28 trips = 78.6% 114 points in 28 trips = 4.07) vs. 44th (29TDs 8FG in 36 trips = 80.6% 150 points in 36 trips = 4.17). Completion percentage: 14th (67.1%) vs. 74th (59.3%). They have committed fewer penalties: 24th (50 for 243 yards) vs. 88th (70 for 543 yards). They are 49th in average kick-off returns (13 for 276 = 21.2) vs. 95th (19 for 356 = 18.7), although you could say we are ahead because we’ve returned more kicks. But we are the higher scoring team and have kicked off more. They are better at punt return defense: 60th (13 for 98 =7.54) vs. 83rd (12 for 116 = 9.67). They allow fewer sacks: 28th (14 for 100 yards) vs. 79th (24 for 156) – this despite the statement I heard on the radio this week from a Notre Dame journalist who was concerned about how their offensive tackles match up against our defensive ends. They are well ahead in scoring defense: 15th (18.7) vs. 71st (27.6). Overall, our offense vs. their defense will be competitive but our defense vs. their offense will not be.
- This extremely good article, (if you look past the jokey stuff): Notre Dame Football: Syracuse Orange Preview “Syracuse has largely beaten up on bad defenses in 2018, and a closer look at the stats reflects that. The Orange have faced just two top-50 S&P+ defenses on the season (Clemson and Florida State), scoring roughly 18 points per game below their season average in those games (26.5 ppg). Hell, even if you look at games against top-80 defenses (add in Pittsburgh and NC State), the Orange still scored roughly 9 points below their season average of 44.4, averaging 35.3 ppg against those 4 opponents….Meanwhile, on the ND side of things, Clark Lea’s defense has faced four top-50 offenses so far this year (Syracuse is #39 and will thus be the 5th such offense Notre Dame hopes to shut down), and his squad has actually tightened the screws in these toughest of contests, holding those opponents to 17.8 points per game despite a total season average of 18.7. When you include top-80 offenses (7 of ND’s 10 opponents to-date), the Irish are still only allowing 19.6 points per game. Clearly, one unit’s gaudy numbers are a little more battle-tested than the other.” It’s true: We’ve been beating up on bad programs or good programs having bad years. Notre Dame is a different deal.
- A radio commentator said that Ian Book is leading the country in completion percentage (75.4%) because he throws short all the time. Book averages 12.0 yards per completion, the same as Dungey. But because of that completion percentage, he averages 8.9 yards per attempt, compared to Dungey’s 7.2. Dungey has attempted 303 passes and has 14TD passes. Book hs throw 204 passes and has 15TD passes. Book is the real deal.
- I wouldn’t count on Tommy DeVito coming into the game to save us. This is Notre Dame, not North Carolina. And Tommy was far from perfect in the UNC game. He had a couple of over-throws. The TD pass to Custis was thrown short and too low and Custis has to reach over the defender and wrestle it away. And that interception would have lost us the game. Dino hasn’t been grooming him to take over, putting him in way too late vs. Louisville and just having him hand off while we ran out the clock. Wait ‘till next year.
- Book’s wide receivers both go 6-4 and the tight ends, (which they throw to) are 6-5 and 6-6. Dino may have to ask Jim Boeheim if he can borrow some of his players to cover these guys.
- And while we are struggling to cover those guys, Dexter Williams can slip through the middle of the line and take it the distance. I saw a tweet that said that. We’ve given up 8 plays of 60+ yards to 0 for the Irish. 50 yards: 13-2. 40 yards: 19-5, 30 yards: 24-10. We give up just too many big plays to stay in a game against that doesn’t hardly give them up at all.
- Andre Szmyt is having an historical year kicking field goals: 27 of 29. Project that to three more games, (including the bowl) and he’ll be 35 of 38. The 35 would be a record but the 38 is concerning: we settle for field goals far too much. Notre Dame’s kicker is a pedestrian 12 of 16 on field goals. But that means that Notre Dame isn’t settling for field goals nearly as much. Never bring a gun to a knife fight. Szmyt is a sharp knife but he’s still just a knife.
- We’ve snuck up on some teams in the recent past but we are right in Notre Dame’s crosshairs: they are going for the national championship.
- Was Dino down-playing the importance of this game because he doesn’t expect to win it?
- This extremely good article, (if you look past the jokey stuff): Notre Dame Football: Syracuse Orange Preview “Syracuse has largely beaten up on bad defenses in 2018, and a closer look at the stats reflects that. The Orange have faced just two top-50 S&P+ defenses on the season (Clemson and Florida State), scoring roughly 18 points per game below their season average in those games (26.5 ppg). Hell, even if you look at games against top-80 defenses (add in Pittsburgh and NC State), the Orange still scored roughly 9 points below their season average of 44.4, averaging 35.3 ppg against those 4 opponents….Meanwhile, on the ND side of things, Clark Lea’s defense has faced four top-50 offenses so far this year (Syracuse is #39 and will thus be the 5th such offense Notre Dame hopes to shut down), and his squad has actually tightened the screws in these toughest of contests, holding those opponents to 17.8 points per game despite a total season average of 18.7. When you include top-80 offenses (7 of ND’s 10 opponents to-date), the Irish are still only allowing 19.6 points per game. Clearly, one unit’s gaudy numbers are a little more battle-tested than the other.” It’s true: We’ve been beating up on bad programs or good programs having bad years. Notre Dame is a different deal.
- A radio commentator said that Ian Book is leading the country in completion percentage (75.4%) because he throws short all the time. Book averages 12.0 yards per completion, the same as Dungey. But because of that completion percentage, he averages 8.9 yards per attempt, compared to Dungey’s 7.2. Dungey has attempted 303 passes and has 14TD passes. Book hs throw 204 passes and has 15TD passes. Book is the real deal.
- I wouldn’t count on Tommy DeVito coming into the game to save us. This is Notre Dame, not North Carolina. And Tommy was far from perfect in the UNC game. He had a couple of over-throws. The TD pass to Custis was thrown short and too low and Custis has to reach over the defender and wrestle it away. And that interception would have lost us the game. Dino hasn’t been grooming him to take over, putting him in way too late vs. Louisville and just having him hand off while we ran out the clock. Wait ‘till next year.
- Book’s wide receivers both go 6-4 and the tight ends, (which they throw to) are 6-5 and 6-6. Dino may have to ask Jim Boeheim if he can borrow some of his players to cover these guys.
- And while we are struggling to cover those guys, Dexter Williams can slip through the middle of the line and take it the distance. I saw a tweet that said that. We’ve given up 8 plays of 60+ yards to 0 for the Irish. 50 yards: 13-2. 40 yards: 19-5, 30 yards: 24-10. We give up just too many big plays to stay in a game against that doesn’t hardly give them up at all.
- Andre Szmyt is having an historical year kicking field goals: 27 of 29. Project that to three more games, (including the bowl) and he’ll be 35 of 38. The 35 would be a record but the 38 is concerning: we settle for field goals far too much. Notre Dame’s kicker is a pedestrian 12 of 16 on field goals. But that means that Notre Dame isn’t settling for field goals nearly as much. Never bring a gun to a knife fight. Szmyt is a sharp knife but he’s still just a knife.
- We’ve snuck up on some teams in the recent past but we are right in Notre Dame’s crosshairs: they are going for the national championship.
- Was Dino down-playing the importance of this game because he doesn’t expect to win it?
