SWC75
Bored Historian
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- It never seems to matter who has the better team in this series: Pitt is 18-3 against SU since 2002. In fact their 24-48 win over us, (which was 3-48 at one point), was the red flag that the good times were over for the SU program, which had had 15 winning seasons in a row but have had only five since.
- Over that time, we’ve had a lot of ‘losing funks’, where we just seemed to be losing because we were losing: a 1-6 start in2002, (with the only win over Rhode island); 9 losses in a row to end G-Rob’s first season in 2005; 5 in a row in 2006 after a 3-2 start; 4 in a row to close out 2007; we clobbered 11th ranked West Virginia 49-23 to go to 5-2 in 2011 and finished 5-7; We had a 4 game losing streak and then a 5 game losing streak in 2014 and an 8 game losing streak after a 3-0 start in 2016. Exit Scott Shafer. Dino ended his first year, 2016 with a 4 game losing streak, 2017 with a 5 game losing streak, (after beating Clemson) and 2020 with an 8 game losing streak. Then came last year’s 5 game streak and now we have this year’s 5 game losing streak. We’re gonna lose because we’re playing Pitt and because we’re losing ‘cus we’re losing.
- Carlos Del Rio Wilson had an historically bad passing day last week vs. BC: 37 yards and 4 interceptions. He ran the ball well but the Eagles adjusted to that, knowing he was no threat passing at all and beat him up pretty badly. (It wouldn’t shock me if he was unable to play and Dino has been fooling everybody by talking about him all week). Last week he got run out of Pitt’s stadium by their pass rush, (6 sacks and plenty of “hurries”: Carlos was 8 for 23 in that game). Pitt has more sacks than any team in the country in this decade. This won’t be pretty.
Stats that favor Pittsburgh:
OFFENSIVE PASSING YARDS SU- 199.89 PT – 212.33
OFFENSIVE PASSING YARDS PER COMPLETION SU- 11.99 PT – 13.65
OFFENSIVE RED ZONE POINTS (extra points assumed) SU- 147/31= 4.7 PT – 100/17 = 5.9
SACKS ALLOWED SU- 26 PT - 19
TACKLES FOR A LOSS ALLOWED SU- 55 PT - 49
TOTAL DEFENSIVE YARDS SU- 393.7 PT – 366.3
DEFENSIVE RUSHING YARDS SU- 153.1 PT – 131.9
DEFENSIVE PASSING YARDS SU- 240.56 PT – 234.44
DEFENSIVE 3RD AND 4TH FOURTH DOWN PERCENTAGE SU- 41.81 PT – 37.31
SACKS SU- 22 PT - 25
TACKLES FOR A LOSS SU- 63 PT – 68
BLOCKED KICKS SU -2 PT - 3 (all punts)
KICKOFF RETURNS SU- 18.10 PT – 20.63
OPPONENT PUNT RETURNS SU- 15.67 PT – 13.88
EXTRA POINTS MISSED SU- 2 PT - 0
STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE SU- #65 PT - #34
(Everybody has their own system for this: I used this page as a source: NCAA College Football Strength of Schedule Rankings & Ratings )
COMMON OPPONENTS: The common opponents were the three most horrible games for us: We lost to UNC 7-40; they lost to them 24-41. We lost to Florida State 3-41; they lost to them 7-24. We lost to Virginia Tech 10-38; they lost to them 21-38. We were minus 99 points in the three games; they were -51. First downs: 32-83 = -51 vs. 43-69 = -26. Rushing yards: 216-711 = -495 vs. 300-414 = -114. Passing yards: 403-996 = -593 vs. 473-837 = -364. Total yards: 619-1,707 = -1,088 vs. 773-1,251 = -478. We did have an advent age with turnovers: 4-1 (-3) vs. 7-2 (-5) and penalties 16/103 to 16/165 vs. 31/243 to 19/98 = -12. They were terrible in these games and we were beyond terrible.
Comments: Pittsburgh passes deeper for more yards. They don’t get to the red zone as often, (at least to run a play there), but they score more points when they do. They give up fewer sacks and TFLs and get more of them on defense. They give up fewer rushing and passing yards, (by a small margin), and thus total yards. Their defense gets off the field slightly better. Watch out for a blocked punt. They get more on kickoff returns – when they can get them - and give up less on punt returns. We’ve missed a couple extra points. That could be a problem. But the biggest thing that favors the Panthers is that they’ve had the more difficult schedule and did a better job of competing with the best teams on it. Maybe it will be to our advantage that we aren’t one of them.
- Over that time, we’ve had a lot of ‘losing funks’, where we just seemed to be losing because we were losing: a 1-6 start in2002, (with the only win over Rhode island); 9 losses in a row to end G-Rob’s first season in 2005; 5 in a row in 2006 after a 3-2 start; 4 in a row to close out 2007; we clobbered 11th ranked West Virginia 49-23 to go to 5-2 in 2011 and finished 5-7; We had a 4 game losing streak and then a 5 game losing streak in 2014 and an 8 game losing streak after a 3-0 start in 2016. Exit Scott Shafer. Dino ended his first year, 2016 with a 4 game losing streak, 2017 with a 5 game losing streak, (after beating Clemson) and 2020 with an 8 game losing streak. Then came last year’s 5 game streak and now we have this year’s 5 game losing streak. We’re gonna lose because we’re playing Pitt and because we’re losing ‘cus we’re losing.
- Carlos Del Rio Wilson had an historically bad passing day last week vs. BC: 37 yards and 4 interceptions. He ran the ball well but the Eagles adjusted to that, knowing he was no threat passing at all and beat him up pretty badly. (It wouldn’t shock me if he was unable to play and Dino has been fooling everybody by talking about him all week). Last week he got run out of Pitt’s stadium by their pass rush, (6 sacks and plenty of “hurries”: Carlos was 8 for 23 in that game). Pitt has more sacks than any team in the country in this decade. This won’t be pretty.
Stats that favor Pittsburgh:
OFFENSIVE PASSING YARDS SU- 199.89 PT – 212.33
OFFENSIVE PASSING YARDS PER COMPLETION SU- 11.99 PT – 13.65
OFFENSIVE RED ZONE POINTS (extra points assumed) SU- 147/31= 4.7 PT – 100/17 = 5.9
SACKS ALLOWED SU- 26 PT - 19
TACKLES FOR A LOSS ALLOWED SU- 55 PT - 49
TOTAL DEFENSIVE YARDS SU- 393.7 PT – 366.3
DEFENSIVE RUSHING YARDS SU- 153.1 PT – 131.9
DEFENSIVE PASSING YARDS SU- 240.56 PT – 234.44
DEFENSIVE 3RD AND 4TH FOURTH DOWN PERCENTAGE SU- 41.81 PT – 37.31
SACKS SU- 22 PT - 25
TACKLES FOR A LOSS SU- 63 PT – 68
BLOCKED KICKS SU -2 PT - 3 (all punts)
KICKOFF RETURNS SU- 18.10 PT – 20.63
OPPONENT PUNT RETURNS SU- 15.67 PT – 13.88
EXTRA POINTS MISSED SU- 2 PT - 0
STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE SU- #65 PT - #34
(Everybody has their own system for this: I used this page as a source: NCAA College Football Strength of Schedule Rankings & Ratings )
COMMON OPPONENTS: The common opponents were the three most horrible games for us: We lost to UNC 7-40; they lost to them 24-41. We lost to Florida State 3-41; they lost to them 7-24. We lost to Virginia Tech 10-38; they lost to them 21-38. We were minus 99 points in the three games; they were -51. First downs: 32-83 = -51 vs. 43-69 = -26. Rushing yards: 216-711 = -495 vs. 300-414 = -114. Passing yards: 403-996 = -593 vs. 473-837 = -364. Total yards: 619-1,707 = -1,088 vs. 773-1,251 = -478. We did have an advent age with turnovers: 4-1 (-3) vs. 7-2 (-5) and penalties 16/103 to 16/165 vs. 31/243 to 19/98 = -12. They were terrible in these games and we were beyond terrible.
Comments: Pittsburgh passes deeper for more yards. They don’t get to the red zone as often, (at least to run a play there), but they score more points when they do. They give up fewer sacks and TFLs and get more of them on defense. They give up fewer rushing and passing yards, (by a small margin), and thus total yards. Their defense gets off the field slightly better. Watch out for a blocked punt. They get more on kickoff returns – when they can get them - and give up less on punt returns. We’ve missed a couple extra points. That could be a problem. But the biggest thing that favors the Panthers is that they’ve had the more difficult schedule and did a better job of competing with the best teams on it. Maybe it will be to our advantage that we aren’t one of them.
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