Why Pittsburgh will win | Syracusefan.com

Why Pittsburgh will win

SWC75

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- Because they are Pittsburgh and the game is in Pittsburgh, where we haven’t won in 23 years. They’ve won there 10 times in a row by a combined 202-348. Overall we are 4-18 against the Panthers since 2002. Even our 2018 team lost to them in overtime.

- We are proud of our offense but it’s the Panthers that are scoring 40 points a game. They can pass and they can run. We are too one-dimensional.

- They are famous for their defensive pressure under Pat Narduzzi. Before last year they had sacked the quarterback more times in this decade than any other team. Last year, their pass rush was deficient, but it is coming back: they have 5 more sacks and 15 more TFLs than we do. Kyle McCord may find he has less time to check his receivers and they have less time to get open.

- Then there’s that ugly statistic: we’ve been blocked 6 times and they’ve blocked 2 kicks. We haven’t blocked a kick all year.

- And that other ugly statistic: we are 5 for 10 on field goals with a long of 33. Theya re 10 for 10 with a long of 58. If it comes down to this, forget it. It’s disgusting to see other teams have such an advantage over us in this area. We play in a Dome. We are “Kicker U!” Instead we are getting our butts kicked in this area.

- Yeah, we’re 5-1 but we’ve had so many lapses: missed tackles, blown coverages, blocked kicks, missed field goals it’s hard to see them not costing us down the stretch. The fact that we had 17 point fourth quarter leads over both Georgia Tech and NC State and would have beaten UNLV by two touchdowns if we could get a punt off doesn’t mean we are better than our record seems: it all counts.

Stats that favor Pittsburgh (26):
SCORING OFFENSE SU- 33.83 Pitt – 40.83
TOTAL OFFENSIVE YARDS SU- 469.50 Pitt – 481.33
OFFENSIVE RUSHING YARDS SU- 104.30 Pitt – 175.50
OFFENSIVE AVERAGE ON RUNNING PLAYS (- sacks) SU- 3.11 Pitt – 5.09
OFFENSIVE PASSING YARDS PER COMPLETION SU- 11.72 Pitt – 13.20
OFFENSIVE PASSING YARDS PER ATTEMPT SU- 7.63 Pitt – 8.38
OFFENSIVE PASSING EFFICIENCY SU- 146.95 Pitt - 154.90
BLOCKED KICKS ALLOWED SU- 6 Pitt – 0
SCORING DEFENSE SU- 24.67 Pitt – 23.50
DEFENSIVE RUSHING YARDS SU- 127.5 Pitt – 108.50
DEFENSIVE AVERAGE ON RUNNING PLAYS (- SACKS) SU – 4.52 Pitt – 2.50
DEFFENSIVE PASSING YARDS PER ATTEMPT SU- 7.43 Pitt – 7.02
DEFENSIVE PASSING EFFICIENCY SU- 138.49 Pitt – 130.44
DEFENSIVE COMPLETION PERCENTAGE SU- 66.49 Pitt – 59.13
DEFENSIVE RED ZONE POINTS SU- 90/20 = 4.50 Pitt – 71/17 = 4.18
SACKS SU- 13 Pitt - 18
TACKLES FOR A LOSS SU- 34 Pitt – 48
BLOCKED KICKS SU - 0 Pitt - 2
OPPONENT KICKOFFS THAT WERE RETURNED SU- 8/29 = 27.59% Pitt – 5/31 = 16.13%
PUNT RETURNS SU- 10.00 Pitt – 15.17
OPPONENT PUNT RETURNS SU- 16.40 Pitt – 3.00
NET PUNTING SU- 37.44 Pitt – 44.00
FIELD GOAL PERCENTAGE SU- 5/10 = 50.00% Pitt – 10/10 = 100%
LONGEST FG SU- 33 Pitt - 58
40 YARDS + SU- 0/4 = 00.00% Pitt – 5/5 = 100%
STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE SU- 71 Pitt - #64

OMG! Pittsburgh led in 26 stats to our 10! And their schedule has been tougher than ours! (per this, anyway: NCAA College Football Strength of Schedule Rankings & Ratings )But has it been? They’ve beaten 0-7 Kent State 55-24, 5-2 Cincinnati 28-27, 3-4 West Virginia 38-34, 2-6 Youngstown State 73-17, 3-4 North Carolina 34-24 and 3-4 California 17-15. None of them were ranked at the point Pitt played them. We’ve beaten 4-3 Ohio 38-22, 5-3 and then #23 Georgia Tech 31-28, lost to 2-5 Stanford 24-26, 3-5 Holy Cross 42-14, 6-1 and then #25 UNLV 44-41 and 4-4 NC State 24-17. I think we’ve played the better schedule, by enough to skew the numbers, at least slightly.

Still, Pitt clearly has a better rushing attack than we do, which allows them to have better passing efficiency. They also have a better rushing defense but they’d look good anyway against our rushing attack. Pitt blocks more kicks, gets more sacks, (although not as much as in past years), and more TFLs. But their biggest, (and most embarrassing) advantage is their place kicking: We are 5 for 10 on field goals, (when we get them away). With a longest one of 33 yards. They are 10 for 10 with three over 50 yards, including one of 58! If it comes down to field goals, OMG!
 
Last edited:
Have we really allowed six blocked kicks?

The NCAA stats say we've had four blocked (place) kicks:


And two blocked punts:


I don't remember all of them. They may be including the Stonehouse run vs. UNLV, but I doubt that would meet the definition of a blocked punt. For a placekick, some of the misses might have been deflected.

SU has two blocked punts and two blocked field goals, which is closer to what I remember:


(Go to "Individual" and "Special Teams")
 
For the past 20+ years, when we've had a game to turn public perception, to "turn the corner" as they say, we always seem to lay an egg. For that reason alone, I am tempering expectations. I'm not even considering everything posted in the OP lol.

Go Orange!
 
For the past 20+ years, when we've had a game to turn public perception, to "turn the corner" as they say, we always seem to lay an egg. For that reason alone, I am tempering expectations. I'm not even considering everything posted in the OP lol.

Go Orange!
Speaking of 20+ years, that's how long it's been since we beat them on the road so yeah, I don't expect a win but I'm fired up!
 
The NCAA stats say we've had four blocked (place) kicks:


And two blocked punts:


I don't remember all of them. They may be including the Stonehouse run vs. UNLV, but I doubt that would meet the definition of a blocked punt. For a placekick, some of the misses might have been deflected.

SU has two blocked punts and two blocked field goals, which is closer to what I remember:


(Go to "Individual" and "Special Teams")
Four total blocks (2 each of fg and punt) is more than I recall in any season. I’ll check that after the win tonight ;-)
 

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