SWC75
Bored Historian
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- Aug 26, 2011
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- We are a 4th and 9 and a 4th and 1 away from being 10-1 just like Miami, with the same stakes, having faced three teams that were ranked when we played them to none for the Canes.
- Like I always say, we need fannies in the seats and those fannies need to make noise! We may not have quite 32,000 fans, especially with the students away for Thanksgiving but this is the Dome and you don’t have a capacity crowd for it to be the ‘loud house’. The thing is, we’ve got to keep the noise coming the while game, when things are going well or when they aren’t. The team actually needs us more when they aren’t.
- Strange that Miami wins virtually all the statistical comparisons over when they have played the supposedly tougher schedule and yet the three comparative scores all favor SU. Let’s take a deep dive into those games to see what happened:
GEORGIA TECH: We scored first but Tech Matched us at 7-7. We had a great second quarter and took a 21-7 lead before Haynes King rand for a score just before halftime. A third quarter field goal and 4th quarter pass to Gadsden, (he and Pena both scored twice), gave us a commanding 31-14 lead. Tech scored with 5:08 left and captured an on-sides kick, then scored with 2:51 left. This time they kicked it into the end zone and we ran the clock out.
Surprisingly, we out-rushed Tech 134-112 after a bad game against Ohio U.’s rushing game. We also out-passed them 381-266 for a total yardage advantage of 515-378 and a first down advantage of 27-19, which gave us a 36:52-23:08 advantage in time of possession. We didn’t turn the ball over and neither did they. We were 12/19 on 3rd/4th down, Tech 8/16. Kyle McCord attempted 46 passes and was sacked once. It was not about aggressive defense: we had no sacks and 3 TFLs while Tech and 1 and 3. We only punted twice but one was blocked. Penalties were minimal: 5 for us, 3 for them.
Against Miami, Tech scored first, fell behind -10 but took at 14-10 halftime lead, extending that to 21-10 in the third. They traded touchdowns after that, with Miami failing on a two point conversion trying to make it 21-18. The final was 28-23.
Tech ran for 271 yards in that game to just 88 for the Canes, who reversed that in the passing game: 348-99, giving them the advantage in total yardage with 436-370 and first downs 23-18. But Tech controlled the clock 34:49-25:11. Miami had the only turnover. They were 4 for 14 on 3rd and 4th down. Tech was 9 for 14. Tech had 3 sacks and 4TFLs, Miami, against a mobile QB like Haynes King, had no sacks but 6 TFLs. Penalties were again minimal, 3-3.
VIRGINIA TECH: Tech jumped out to a 0-14 first quarter lead and things looked really bad. We stopped the bleeding in the second but could only respond with a field goal. In the third we fell further behind 3-12. The great thing about having an outstanding pass attack is that you can overcome a deficit like that -fi your defense stops the other team. We scored three straight touchdown, two by Justis Ross-Simmons to take a 24-21 lead in an increasingly loud Dome. But VPI responded with 10 points of their own before LeQuint Allen went over from the 1 with 29 seconds left to send the game into overtime. LeQuint, (the King of OT) scored from the 9 and then we recovered a fumble to end it, 37-31, after scoring 3 points in the first 28 minutes.
Tech out-ran us 130-249 but we out-passed them 280-206, (strangely, this was the only game in which McCord didn’t throw for 300 yards) for a total output of 410-455. Both teams had two turnovers but we had the big one. First downs were 23-24. We were 8/15 on 3rd/4th, they were 5/11. Tech won the time of possession, 34:18-25:42, (the clock doesn’t run in OT). We overcame 11 penalties, in part because Tech and 9. We had 3 sacks and 5.5 TFLs, (can a team have half a TFL?) to 1 and 2 for the Hokies. The big concern here is that we can’t afford to take the first half off against Miami. We aren’t coming back from 3-21 vs. the Canes.
Tech scored first against Miami, too but the Canes had a 14-7 lead by the end of the first quarter. Tech scored 2 TDs and a field goal, which Maimi matched for a 24-17 halftime lead. The Hokies traded a field goal for a Miami touchdown in the third, making it 27-24 going into the fourth. Tech scored with 12:05 left to make it 34-24 but Miami rallied with scores at 8:40 and 1:57 to win it. Despite that, this is the sort of game in which we’d have a better chance against the Canes: back and forth from the opening kick-off to the final gun. No big deficits.
Tech out-ran Miami 206-165 but the Canes out-passed them 343-188 for a 508-394 lead in total offense. Miami had one more first down 24-23. They were 11 for 16 on 3rd/4th down to 9 for 15. The Canes overcame 3 turnovers, (to 1), including two Cam Ward interceptions, to control the ball 33:42-26:18. Penalties were even at 6. The Hokies had 3 sacks and 5 TFLs to 2/6 for Miami.
CALIFORNIA: We were a buzz saw in the first half, scoring on every possession to take a 27-7 lead. Cal’s only score was on a 71 run that was more than half their offense in that half. Duce Chestnut hit the wrong gap. If we hadn’t had to settle for field goals on the first two possessions, this one would have been a total route. We were in command until late in the second half. We kicked two field goals while Cal scored two TDs and then scored another with 1:01 left, going for two to make it 33-25. We had to recover an onsides kick to clinch it. It never should have come to that. This one was a lot like the Georgia Tech, and NC State, games in that respect. We missed chances to really impress people and to play a lot of players by letting games we dominated become close games. Obviously, we can do that vs. Miami.
Cal out-rushed us 148-166 thanks to that one play in the first half. We outpassed them 323-255 for a 471-391 advantage. We had 26 first downs to 19 and controlled the ball for 38:41-21:19. Cal had the only two turnovers, both interceptions. We were 11 for 21 on 3rd/4th. They were 8 for 13. Penalties were 8-5 Again, McCord threw 46 passes and was sacked just once. Cal had 3TFLs. We had 4 sacks and 8.5 TFLs, (I think it means three guys were in on one play but they can’t divide it into thirds). At least we’d found our placekicker.
Against Miami, it was Cal that got off to a great start. After a 7-7 first quarter they steamed to a 21-10 first half lead. Two of their touchdowns were on 57 and 66 yard pass plays. A 40 yard pick six and a 5 play 80 yard drive featuring a 56 yard pass made it 35-10. Gave over. Game not over. Miami scored touchdowns on their next four possessions. Ward threw three of them, ran 24 yards for the other and threw for a two point conversation to win the game 39-38. Lesson: Don’t fall behind 3-21 but don’t think it's over at 35-10, either. Teams with guys like McCord and Ward are never out of it. To win you’ve got to answer the other team’s scores and keep doing it until dinnertime.
Miami out-rushed the Bears 138-73 and out-passed them 437-297 for a commanding lead in yards, 575-370. They had 30 to 12 first downs, having gone 10 for 20 on 3rd/4th to 3/12. Turnovers were even: 1-1. Miami had 9 penalties to 6. The Canes had the ball for 37:35 to 22:25. And we though our game with Cal was masquerading as a close game. Miami had 2 sacks and 7TFLs to 3 and 7.
What does it all add up to?
Points: SU 102-84 +18 Miami 100-100 Even
Rushing: SU 412-527 -115 Miami 391-550 -159
Passing: SU 984-727 +257 Miami 1,128-584 +544
Total: SU 1,396-1,254 +142 Miami 1,519-1,134 +385
1st Downs: SU 76-62 +14 Miami 77-53 +24
3rd/4th: SU 31/55 .564 vs 21/40 .525 +39 Miami 25/50 .500 vs 21/41 .512 -12
Turnovers: SU 2-4 +2 Miami 5-2 -3
Penalties: SU 22-17 -5 Miami 18-15 -3
Time of possession: SU 1:41:15 vs 1:18:45 +22:30 Miami 1:36:28 vs 1:23:32 +12:56
Sacks: SU 7-3 +4 Miami 4-9 -5
TFLs: SU 17-8 +9 Miami 23-16 +7
Both teams lost the battle on the ground but won it in the air. Miami won it by a lot more due to better defense. The edge in yardage meant an edge in first downs, even through we’ve done better on 3rd and 4th down. A key is that Miami, +5 over the season in turnovers, was -3 in these games while SU, -1 for the season, was +2. SU also has a time of possession edge. Here’s a biggie: Kyle McCord was sacked 3 times in 3 games, (once in each) while Cam Ward was sacked 9 times. That’s 9 of the 22 sacks the Canes have allowed this season.
So I think what we need to do is play at a high level for 60 minutes, not 40 or 30. We need to jump out on top and answer scores. We need to get after Ward. We need to get picks. A kick return would be nice, too. And we need to do what we’ve done all year: convert 3rd and 4th downs to sustain drives and keep the ball. Score touchdowns, not field goals.
- One more item. Here is a chart from my “Winning Plays” post about the number of plays where we got the minimum we would have wanted from a play vs. the number of plays the opposition got the minimum they would have wanted:
Syracuse 80 Ohio University 93 = -13
Syracuse 90 Georgia Tech 87 = +3
Syracuse 77 Stanford 91 = -14
Syracuse 112 Holy Cross 71 = +41
Syracuse 94 Nevada-Las Vegas 95 = -1
Syracuse 79 North Carolina State 75 = +4
Syracuse 68 Pittsburgh 112 = -44
Syracuse 92 Virginia Tech 91 = +1
Syracuse 85 Boston College 95 = -10
Syracuse 105 California 72 = +33
Syracuse 103 Connecticut 62 = +23
Our last two performances have been our best, (save for our FCS opponent). It suggests that our team is improving and that our best performance maybe in the last regular season game.
8-3 and 1+ to go!
LET’S GO ORANGE!
Stats that favor Syracuse (6):
DEFENSIVE PASSING YARDS PER COMPLETION SU- 10.63 UM – 11.13
OPPONENT KICKOFF RETURNS SU- 19.09 UM – 24.96
KICKOFFS THAT WERE RETURNED SU- 11/66 = 16.67% UM - 25/88 = 28.41%
PUNT RETURNS SU- 8.80 UM – 7.25
TIME OF POSSESSION SU- 34.08 UM – 32.54
COMMON OPPONENTS:
Syracuse 31 Georgia Tech 28 U of Miami 23 Georgia Tech 28 = +11 for Syracuse
Syracuse 38 Virginia Tech 31 U of Miami 38 Virginia Tech 34 = +3 for Syracuse
Syracuse 33 California 25 U of Miami 39 California 38 = +7 for Syracuse
Syracuse 102-84 U of Miami 100-100 = +18 for Syracuse
Well what’ll know? We win every comparative score. How did that happen. Here’s something to keep in the back of your mind: Miami has given up two touchdowns on kickoff returns. Let’s put Malachi James back there, not Yasin Willis, please.
Stats that were (relatively) even (5):
OFFENSIVE PASSING YARDS SU- 361.55 UM – 360.18
SACKS ALLOWED SU- 24 UM – 22
DEFENSIVE 3RD AND 4TH DOWN PERCENTAGE SU- 37.68 UM – 36.59
PUNTS RETURNED SU- 13/32 = 40.625% UM - 9/22 = 40.91%
OPPONENT PUNTS RETURNED SU- 15/48 = 31.25% UM – 16/52 = 30.77%
NET PUNTING SU- 39.16 UM – 40.00
Kyle McCord has averaged 15 more passing yards per game than Cam Ward. But Kyle has thrown 522 of our 526 passes. Michael Johnson Jr. is 2 for 3 and Trebor Pena 0 for 1. Cam Ward has thrown 399 of Miami’s 420 passes. His back-up, Emory Williams, is 11 for 12 and the third string guy, Reese Poffensbarger, 6 for 7. (they beat teams by enough to give their back-ups some real playing time), A tight end and a wide-out is 1 for 2. It all adds up to virtually the same output, which means that the one thing we do well is not an advantage in this game. How can we win it in other ways?
- Like I always say, we need fannies in the seats and those fannies need to make noise! We may not have quite 32,000 fans, especially with the students away for Thanksgiving but this is the Dome and you don’t have a capacity crowd for it to be the ‘loud house’. The thing is, we’ve got to keep the noise coming the while game, when things are going well or when they aren’t. The team actually needs us more when they aren’t.
- Strange that Miami wins virtually all the statistical comparisons over when they have played the supposedly tougher schedule and yet the three comparative scores all favor SU. Let’s take a deep dive into those games to see what happened:
GEORGIA TECH: We scored first but Tech Matched us at 7-7. We had a great second quarter and took a 21-7 lead before Haynes King rand for a score just before halftime. A third quarter field goal and 4th quarter pass to Gadsden, (he and Pena both scored twice), gave us a commanding 31-14 lead. Tech scored with 5:08 left and captured an on-sides kick, then scored with 2:51 left. This time they kicked it into the end zone and we ran the clock out.
Surprisingly, we out-rushed Tech 134-112 after a bad game against Ohio U.’s rushing game. We also out-passed them 381-266 for a total yardage advantage of 515-378 and a first down advantage of 27-19, which gave us a 36:52-23:08 advantage in time of possession. We didn’t turn the ball over and neither did they. We were 12/19 on 3rd/4th down, Tech 8/16. Kyle McCord attempted 46 passes and was sacked once. It was not about aggressive defense: we had no sacks and 3 TFLs while Tech and 1 and 3. We only punted twice but one was blocked. Penalties were minimal: 5 for us, 3 for them.
Against Miami, Tech scored first, fell behind -10 but took at 14-10 halftime lead, extending that to 21-10 in the third. They traded touchdowns after that, with Miami failing on a two point conversion trying to make it 21-18. The final was 28-23.
Tech ran for 271 yards in that game to just 88 for the Canes, who reversed that in the passing game: 348-99, giving them the advantage in total yardage with 436-370 and first downs 23-18. But Tech controlled the clock 34:49-25:11. Miami had the only turnover. They were 4 for 14 on 3rd and 4th down. Tech was 9 for 14. Tech had 3 sacks and 4TFLs, Miami, against a mobile QB like Haynes King, had no sacks but 6 TFLs. Penalties were again minimal, 3-3.
VIRGINIA TECH: Tech jumped out to a 0-14 first quarter lead and things looked really bad. We stopped the bleeding in the second but could only respond with a field goal. In the third we fell further behind 3-12. The great thing about having an outstanding pass attack is that you can overcome a deficit like that -fi your defense stops the other team. We scored three straight touchdown, two by Justis Ross-Simmons to take a 24-21 lead in an increasingly loud Dome. But VPI responded with 10 points of their own before LeQuint Allen went over from the 1 with 29 seconds left to send the game into overtime. LeQuint, (the King of OT) scored from the 9 and then we recovered a fumble to end it, 37-31, after scoring 3 points in the first 28 minutes.
Tech out-ran us 130-249 but we out-passed them 280-206, (strangely, this was the only game in which McCord didn’t throw for 300 yards) for a total output of 410-455. Both teams had two turnovers but we had the big one. First downs were 23-24. We were 8/15 on 3rd/4th, they were 5/11. Tech won the time of possession, 34:18-25:42, (the clock doesn’t run in OT). We overcame 11 penalties, in part because Tech and 9. We had 3 sacks and 5.5 TFLs, (can a team have half a TFL?) to 1 and 2 for the Hokies. The big concern here is that we can’t afford to take the first half off against Miami. We aren’t coming back from 3-21 vs. the Canes.
Tech scored first against Miami, too but the Canes had a 14-7 lead by the end of the first quarter. Tech scored 2 TDs and a field goal, which Maimi matched for a 24-17 halftime lead. The Hokies traded a field goal for a Miami touchdown in the third, making it 27-24 going into the fourth. Tech scored with 12:05 left to make it 34-24 but Miami rallied with scores at 8:40 and 1:57 to win it. Despite that, this is the sort of game in which we’d have a better chance against the Canes: back and forth from the opening kick-off to the final gun. No big deficits.
Tech out-ran Miami 206-165 but the Canes out-passed them 343-188 for a 508-394 lead in total offense. Miami had one more first down 24-23. They were 11 for 16 on 3rd/4th down to 9 for 15. The Canes overcame 3 turnovers, (to 1), including two Cam Ward interceptions, to control the ball 33:42-26:18. Penalties were even at 6. The Hokies had 3 sacks and 5 TFLs to 2/6 for Miami.
CALIFORNIA: We were a buzz saw in the first half, scoring on every possession to take a 27-7 lead. Cal’s only score was on a 71 run that was more than half their offense in that half. Duce Chestnut hit the wrong gap. If we hadn’t had to settle for field goals on the first two possessions, this one would have been a total route. We were in command until late in the second half. We kicked two field goals while Cal scored two TDs and then scored another with 1:01 left, going for two to make it 33-25. We had to recover an onsides kick to clinch it. It never should have come to that. This one was a lot like the Georgia Tech, and NC State, games in that respect. We missed chances to really impress people and to play a lot of players by letting games we dominated become close games. Obviously, we can do that vs. Miami.
Cal out-rushed us 148-166 thanks to that one play in the first half. We outpassed them 323-255 for a 471-391 advantage. We had 26 first downs to 19 and controlled the ball for 38:41-21:19. Cal had the only two turnovers, both interceptions. We were 11 for 21 on 3rd/4th. They were 8 for 13. Penalties were 8-5 Again, McCord threw 46 passes and was sacked just once. Cal had 3TFLs. We had 4 sacks and 8.5 TFLs, (I think it means three guys were in on one play but they can’t divide it into thirds). At least we’d found our placekicker.
Against Miami, it was Cal that got off to a great start. After a 7-7 first quarter they steamed to a 21-10 first half lead. Two of their touchdowns were on 57 and 66 yard pass plays. A 40 yard pick six and a 5 play 80 yard drive featuring a 56 yard pass made it 35-10. Gave over. Game not over. Miami scored touchdowns on their next four possessions. Ward threw three of them, ran 24 yards for the other and threw for a two point conversation to win the game 39-38. Lesson: Don’t fall behind 3-21 but don’t think it's over at 35-10, either. Teams with guys like McCord and Ward are never out of it. To win you’ve got to answer the other team’s scores and keep doing it until dinnertime.
Miami out-rushed the Bears 138-73 and out-passed them 437-297 for a commanding lead in yards, 575-370. They had 30 to 12 first downs, having gone 10 for 20 on 3rd/4th to 3/12. Turnovers were even: 1-1. Miami had 9 penalties to 6. The Canes had the ball for 37:35 to 22:25. And we though our game with Cal was masquerading as a close game. Miami had 2 sacks and 7TFLs to 3 and 7.
What does it all add up to?
Points: SU 102-84 +18 Miami 100-100 Even
Rushing: SU 412-527 -115 Miami 391-550 -159
Passing: SU 984-727 +257 Miami 1,128-584 +544
Total: SU 1,396-1,254 +142 Miami 1,519-1,134 +385
1st Downs: SU 76-62 +14 Miami 77-53 +24
3rd/4th: SU 31/55 .564 vs 21/40 .525 +39 Miami 25/50 .500 vs 21/41 .512 -12
Turnovers: SU 2-4 +2 Miami 5-2 -3
Penalties: SU 22-17 -5 Miami 18-15 -3
Time of possession: SU 1:41:15 vs 1:18:45 +22:30 Miami 1:36:28 vs 1:23:32 +12:56
Sacks: SU 7-3 +4 Miami 4-9 -5
TFLs: SU 17-8 +9 Miami 23-16 +7
Both teams lost the battle on the ground but won it in the air. Miami won it by a lot more due to better defense. The edge in yardage meant an edge in first downs, even through we’ve done better on 3rd and 4th down. A key is that Miami, +5 over the season in turnovers, was -3 in these games while SU, -1 for the season, was +2. SU also has a time of possession edge. Here’s a biggie: Kyle McCord was sacked 3 times in 3 games, (once in each) while Cam Ward was sacked 9 times. That’s 9 of the 22 sacks the Canes have allowed this season.
So I think what we need to do is play at a high level for 60 minutes, not 40 or 30. We need to jump out on top and answer scores. We need to get after Ward. We need to get picks. A kick return would be nice, too. And we need to do what we’ve done all year: convert 3rd and 4th downs to sustain drives and keep the ball. Score touchdowns, not field goals.
- One more item. Here is a chart from my “Winning Plays” post about the number of plays where we got the minimum we would have wanted from a play vs. the number of plays the opposition got the minimum they would have wanted:
Syracuse 80 Ohio University 93 = -13
Syracuse 90 Georgia Tech 87 = +3
Syracuse 77 Stanford 91 = -14
Syracuse 112 Holy Cross 71 = +41
Syracuse 94 Nevada-Las Vegas 95 = -1
Syracuse 79 North Carolina State 75 = +4
Syracuse 68 Pittsburgh 112 = -44
Syracuse 92 Virginia Tech 91 = +1
Syracuse 85 Boston College 95 = -10
Syracuse 105 California 72 = +33
Syracuse 103 Connecticut 62 = +23
Our last two performances have been our best, (save for our FCS opponent). It suggests that our team is improving and that our best performance maybe in the last regular season game.
8-3 and 1+ to go!
LET’S GO ORANGE!
Stats that favor Syracuse (6):
DEFENSIVE PASSING YARDS PER COMPLETION SU- 10.63 UM – 11.13
OPPONENT KICKOFF RETURNS SU- 19.09 UM – 24.96
KICKOFFS THAT WERE RETURNED SU- 11/66 = 16.67% UM - 25/88 = 28.41%
PUNT RETURNS SU- 8.80 UM – 7.25
TIME OF POSSESSION SU- 34.08 UM – 32.54
COMMON OPPONENTS:
Syracuse 31 Georgia Tech 28 U of Miami 23 Georgia Tech 28 = +11 for Syracuse
Syracuse 38 Virginia Tech 31 U of Miami 38 Virginia Tech 34 = +3 for Syracuse
Syracuse 33 California 25 U of Miami 39 California 38 = +7 for Syracuse
Syracuse 102-84 U of Miami 100-100 = +18 for Syracuse
Well what’ll know? We win every comparative score. How did that happen. Here’s something to keep in the back of your mind: Miami has given up two touchdowns on kickoff returns. Let’s put Malachi James back there, not Yasin Willis, please.
Stats that were (relatively) even (5):
OFFENSIVE PASSING YARDS SU- 361.55 UM – 360.18
SACKS ALLOWED SU- 24 UM – 22
DEFENSIVE 3RD AND 4TH DOWN PERCENTAGE SU- 37.68 UM – 36.59
PUNTS RETURNED SU- 13/32 = 40.625% UM - 9/22 = 40.91%
OPPONENT PUNTS RETURNED SU- 15/48 = 31.25% UM – 16/52 = 30.77%
NET PUNTING SU- 39.16 UM – 40.00
Kyle McCord has averaged 15 more passing yards per game than Cam Ward. But Kyle has thrown 522 of our 526 passes. Michael Johnson Jr. is 2 for 3 and Trebor Pena 0 for 1. Cam Ward has thrown 399 of Miami’s 420 passes. His back-up, Emory Williams, is 11 for 12 and the third string guy, Reese Poffensbarger, 6 for 7. (they beat teams by enough to give their back-ups some real playing time), A tight end and a wide-out is 1 for 2. It all adds up to virtually the same output, which means that the one thing we do well is not an advantage in this game. How can we win it in other ways?
