Why Wake Forest Will Win | Syracusefan.com

Why Wake Forest Will Win

SWC75

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- “Syracuse will play at such a pace and produce so many yards and points that “meathead” teams like Connecticut, Wake Forest and Boston College won’t be able to keep up.” Unless we play them in the remnants of a hurricane. There could be 20MPH winds and wet balls to deal with, things that ‘meathead’ teams are better prepared to deal with than high-powered passing teams. Eric Dungey said Dino Babers told him to “grip it and rip it”. You can’t rip it if you can’t grip it. And Dungey isn’t a ‘rip it’ type of thrower. His passes are fairly accurate and very catchable but they aren’t fastballs. In this wind they could be knuckleballs.

- Dave Clawson is in the third year of his rebuilding program than began when he arrived from Bowling Green. Dino Babers is wondering what a third year would be like. Baber described Clawson’s strategy as redshirting his first two classes and basically sacrificing those years so he can have plenty of depth and get a winning season his third year. This is that year. What wake was his first two years is irrelevant to this game.

- They are 4-1, (and at home) against a 2-3 team. “But they haven’t played anybody.” They have played Duke, who beat Notre Dame, and beaten them by 10 in their own place. Have played Indiana, a hurry-up spread team who beat Michigan State , and beaten them in a 33-28 shoot-out, also in their own place. This team is for real.

- Remember when we were going to beat South Florida last year because Willie Taggart was only 7-21 so their team must stink. Taggart’s team is 11-3 since then, averaging 40 points a game. This is a similar situation: we are playing a rebuilding team at precisely the point where they are getting good. We are just beginning our rebuilding, (don’t tell me about 15 years), and aren’t nearly as far along in our process as the opponent.

- Here’s an example of their improvement: two years ago they ran the ball at a ridiculous rate of 40 yards a game. Last year they were a poor 105 yards a game, (122nd in the country). This year they are gaining 174 yards a game on the ground, 65th (in the country). We are presently running the ball for 125 yards a game, 111th in the country.

- The defensive comparison is embarrassing: We are giving up 504 yards a game (#122). They are giving up 376 (#51st). We are giving up 211 yards per game on the ground (#101). They are giving up 111 (#20). We are giving up 300 yards passing a game (#117) to 265 for them (94th). On a dry field on a clam day, both teams might be able to pass one each other but we would probably be more productive. But this won’t be a dry field or a clam day so those rushing numbers are likely to tell the tail. And will our best running back continues to be on the sidelines.

- Wake Forest has been compared to Connecticut, a plodding team that fell behind 0-14 early but then dominated the second and third quarters before a big turnover turned the game back in our favor. For a long time, we couldn’t seem to stop them and made very little headway ourselves. They got off 91 plays to 66 for us, reversing our normal advantage. Oh, and Wake hasn’t been turning the ball over much. They are +5 in turnover margin while we are -1.

- The kicking game is going to be important in a game like this and we are a mess in that area. Cole Murphy either has an injured body or an injured ego. Sterling Hofrichter is still learning on the job. We don’t’ seem to be able to block anybody. The Salt Badger is growling on those punts but every kickoff return, as Matt Park said during last week’s game, seems to end on the same exact spot, just past the 20 yard line.
 
Numbers are indisputable, but they can be manipulated.

For example, Wake is giving up 367 yards per game.

If you limit the sample to FBS, it's 446 yards per game.

If you limit it to their last 2 opponents, its 570 yards per game.

I'd say our offense qualifies to be included with the last 2 opponents, although neither were home games for Wake. And of course, the stupid weather.

(please don't do that exercise with us, we know our demons all too well).
 


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