Wide Open Season or Not?

[jncuse]

Seeing #10, #11, and #23 losing to lower ranked teams at home tonight, I am starting to wonder whether this is really a wide open season. (let's hope I didn't jinx it for TT). Let me explain.

There are two logical viewpoints and I am not sure where I lean. It will certainly be more clear by end of January.

View #1 - All these results indicate that the season is wide open and that everybody is vulnerable. Anybody in a 1-4 seed line has a decent chance for the title.

View #2 - This season is actually not wide open. There are only 3 or 4 really good teams, and the results this season just indicate that there is too much mediocrity after them. Most of the top 25 teams are quite mediocre including most of the current top 10 (Arizona St, Xavier, West Virginia, Oklahoma, Virginia, Wichita St, Kansas). By mid February there will be an even clearer divide between Duke, Villanova, Michigan St (and maybe add or delete one team) as compared to the rest of the country.

Your thoughts? I am starting to think Duke, Villanova, and Michigan St are way better than the rest. But if the season trends like it has I will be proved wrong within a month.

 

[Orangezoo]

Seeing #10, #11, and #23 losing to lower ranked teams at home tonight, I am starting to wonder whether this is really a wide open season. (let's hope I didn't jinx it for TT). Let me explain.

There are two logical viewpoints and I am not sure where I lean. It will certainly be more clear by end of January.

View #1 - All these results indicate that the season is wide open and that everybody is vulnerable. Anybody in a 1-4 seed line has a decent chance for the title.

View #2 - This season is actually not wide open. There are only 3 or 4 really good teams, and the results this season just indicate that there is too much mediocrity after them. Most of the top 25 teams are quite mediocre including most of the current top 10 (Arizona St, Xavier, West Virginia, Oklahoma, Virginia, Wichita St, Kansas). By mid February there will be an even clearer divide between Duke, Villanova, Michigan St (and maybe add or delete one team) as compared to the rest of the country.

Your thoughts? I am starting to think Duke, Villanova, and Michigan St are way better than the rest. But if the season trends like it has I will be proved wrong within a month.

I definitely agree they are a cut above but even then all 3 have holes as well. Overall the ACC also looks much more wide open than I expected. Outside of Duke, there are a good 7-8 teams who could finish in the top 3 including SU. Not saying I forecast we finish there, but given the building consistency of our D and wild volatility of the rest of the leagues expected top teams, we can beat any of them and generally matchup well.

 

[SoBeCuse]

I think a healthy and full cast of characters at Arizona puts them right with Duke/Villanova/MSU. Outside of those I generally agree. There are IMO at least 100 mediocre teams who could beat each other up and possibly, if they get lucky, get a big W in the Tourney setting against one of those big boys. Syracuse is right there. But, yeah, it is wide open.

At this point, barring a real collapse in the ACC, it looks like we should get in pretty comfortably as long as we stay 9-9. A collapse could happen if we get one more injury or if the team starts to get worn down which would not surprise. Potential foul trouble is an issue as well, obviously. Hats off to the coaches and players to this point. It’s a real treat to watch them dive on the floor, play gritty, and make plays for each other. It can override the anemic offense at times as long as the D stays constant which it has been.

Still, mediocre or not, there are teams SU I think would really struggle with in the Tourney if it comes to that. Captain Obvious of course but WVU, Xavier, Seton Hall come to mind. But the Tourney to me sounds probable so I’m being optimistic.

 

[GonzoInMD]

There was an article in the Washington Post this past weekend saying that the B1G is down this year and they are currently only expected to receive 4 bids to the tourney, as opposed to 7 last year.

 

[Newhouser]

There are fewer elite teams than I can ever remember and frankly they are only elite because the rest of the teams have settled to a level that is not great. The quality of play in college basketball is getting worse and worse for me anyways.

 

[Trueblue25]

Jb has college basketball and the South right where he wants it. The march starts in Winston Salem.

 

[SU94]

I definitely agree they are a cut above but even then all 3 have holes as well. Overall the ACC also looks much more wide open than I expected. Outside of Duke, there are a good 7-8 teams who could finish in the top 3 including SU. Not saying I forecast we finish there, but given the building consistency of our D and wild volatility of the rest of the leagues expected top teams, we can beat any of them and generally matchup well.

I see Michigan State and Nova as above the fray right now. Duke has that potential too and is not far off.
I think that when they are aligned, Florida is a viable top 5 team. They lost their way after losing their 15-point lead to Duke, but I believe they'll get it back. They had a big (and easy) win last night at TAMU.
And don't sleep on Xavier or Oklahoma. If Napier can lead UConn to a title, I would not count out the combo of Trae Young and Kruger.

 

[Cusefan0307]

Everyone has lost so and has warts so I agree it’s wide open. Even the most talented teams struggle at times especially defensively.

 

[Jeremy L.]

As the OP stated, right now it is Villanova, Michigan State, Duke and then everyone else. Excited to see how the next couple of months play out.

 

[cuse10]

It's an open year in the sense that no one is as good as their record appears. The bulk of the top 25 has teams that you could argue shouldn't be ranked; college basketball is that bad this year.

 

[Townie72]

Seeing #10, #11, and #23 losing to lower ranked teams at home tonight, I am starting to wonder whether this is really a wide open season. (let's hope I didn't jinx it for TT). Let me explain.

There are two logical viewpoints and I am not sure where I lean. It will certainly be more clear by end of January.

View #1 - All these results indicate that the season is wide open and that everybody is vulnerable. Anybody in a 1-4 seed line has a decent chance for the title.

View #2 - This season is actually not wide open. There are only 3 or 4 really good teams, and the results this season just indicate that there is too much mediocrity after them. Most of the top 25 teams are quite mediocre including most of the current top 10 (Arizona St, Xavier, West Virginia, Oklahoma, Virginia, Wichita St, Kansas). By mid February there will be an even clearer divide between Duke, Villanova, Michigan St (and maybe add or delete one team) as compared to the rest of the country.

Your thoughts? I am starting to think Duke, Villanova, and Michigan St are way better than the rest. But if the season trends like it has I will be proved wrong within a month.

Or the third logical reason —- The Pre-season polls were wrong and these ranked teams really were not that good. And other teams should have been ranked higher because they were better.

Bestowing rankings on these teams without ever having seen them play and the having them lose gives the appearance of great parity. But when your base data is wrong, it can lead to all kinds of observations.

The unreliability of pre-season polls is yet another casualty of the flux in many rosters.

 

[cuse10]

There was an article in the Washington Post this past weekend saying that the B1G is down this year and they are currently only expected to receive 4 bids to the tourney, as opposed to 7 last year.

If you watched them earlier in the season, it was apparent early they were going to be a bad league.

 

[SU94]

If you watched them earlier in the season, it was apparent early they were going to be a bad league.

Correct. The B1G is pretty bad this year. Got blitzed in the ACC-B1G Challenge (and I think the Big 12 can stake a claim for the best conference this year. Point is, the B1G is way way down the list.
Not a good year to play their Tourney at MSG.

 

[Cusefan0307]

Before anyone goes making declarations of best conference, let’s not forget outside of UNC the ACC got it handed to them in the tournament last year.

 

[jncuse]

With the metrics that are used to select teams (quality wins based on RPI rankings) which are largely dictated by out of conference play, the Big Ten has created too big a hole for themselves. When you only have 4 projected top 50 teams, it us hard to build up quality win profile.

4teams seems about right. Even if some of the lower teams move up, it will be taking wins away from teams like Maryland, Michigan, and Ohio St., who can't afford to lose any games they should win.

 

[cuse10]

Before anyone goes making declarations of best conference, let’s not forget outside of UNC the ACC got it handed to them in the tournament last year.

As did the Big East when they got a record number of teams in, but that year, it was pound for pound the best conference in the country and the reason why Coach K and Roy were hellbent on adding Syracuse and Pitt to the ACC.

 

[Alsacs]

Seeing #10, #11, and #23 losing to lower ranked teams at home tonight, I am starting to wonder whether this is really a wide open season. (let's hope I didn't jinx it for TT). Let me explain.

There are two logical viewpoints and I am not sure where I lean. It will certainly be more clear by end of January.

View #1 - All these results indicate that the season is wide open and that everybody is vulnerable. Anybody in a 1-4 seed line has a decent chance for the title.

View #2 - This season is actually not wide open. There are only 3 or 4 really good teams, and the results this season just indicate that there is too much mediocrity after them. Most of the top 25 teams are quite mediocre including most of the current top 10 (Arizona St, Xavier, West Virginia, Oklahoma, Virginia, Wichita St, Kansas). By mid February there will be an even clearer divide between Duke, Villanova, Michigan St (and maybe add or delete one team) as compared to the rest of the country.

Your thoughts? I am starting to think Duke, Villanova, and Michigan St are way better than the rest. But if the season trends like it has I will be proved wrong within a month.

Duke, Michigan State, Arizona are better than everyone else.
Villanova is good but they will get tripped up in March.

 

[jncuse]

So much for my thought that perhaps a clear dividing line would be forming between the top 3 or 4, and the rest as the season progressed. Everybody is really vulnerable.

Ohio St up 23 against Michigan St
NC St beats Duke last night