Winning Plays 2019 - Holy Cross | Syracusefan.com

Winning Plays 2019 - Holy Cross

SWC75

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This season I will once again be charting Syracuse’s games in terms of “winning plays”. I look at the results of each play and decide which team got the minimum they wanted out of the play. Rather than making instinctive judgments, I use a formula:

- On first down, the offensive team wants to get at least a third of the way to a new first down: they will have two more plays before they might have to surrender the ball and if they gain that same amount of yards on each of those two plays, they’ll get the first down. If they don’t make it a third of the way to a new first down, the defense won the play.
- On second down, the offense wants to get at least halfway to a new first down by the same logic.
- On third and fourth down, they want to get the first down.
- Penalties, if added onto a play by the referees, are added on to the results above. If the offense gains 5 yards on first down but there was holding and they lost yardage instead, the defense won the play. If a running back made a 20 yard run on first and ten and the holding was 15 yards downfield, turning it into a 5 yard gain, that’s still a win for the offense. If the defense is penalized and it’s tacked on, again the net result is what is evaluated. The penalties I’ve listed negated the play entirely and are a “loss” for the penalized team and thus a win for their opponent. .
- If a penalty was not tacked onto a play, it’s a lost play for the team being penalized. I'll count them separate from the other plays from scrimmage because I don't know if the intended play before the penalty would have been a run or a pass - so i wouldn't know where to put it in the chart below.
- A turnover is, obviously, a win for the team that wound up with the ball.
- On a kick-off a touchback brings the ball out to the 25 yard line. Teams still seem to be trying to kick the ball into the end zone and avoid a runback if they can, so any kick-off that results in the receiving team starting between their goal line and their 25 is a win for the kicking team. Beyond that, the receiving team wins.
- On a punt, a touchback takes the ball out of the 20. So any punt that results in the other team taking over from their goal line to their 20 is a win for the punting team. If the next change in field position is at least 40 yards, the punting tam has also won the play.
- A successful place kick is, obviously, a win for the kicking team.
- Any play that results in a touchdown is, obviously, a win for that team that scores it.
- A “victory play” where a team accepts a loss just to let the clock run out, is a win for the offensive team.

I will indicate in parenthesis how many yards there were to go to get a new first down, (if other than 10), unless it was for no gain or negative yardage. If it was a touchdown, (“TD)” a scramble/sack (“S”) a victory play (“V”) or involved a penalty (P). I’ll treat a scramble or a sack as a passing play as the Cuse.com play by play now tells you when it’s either of those two. 1R means first down running plays. 1P means first down passing plays, etc.

When SYRACUSE had the ball:

KO: HC 25, HC 25, HC 36, HC 25, HC 25
Total: Syracuse 4 Holy Cross 1
P: Recovered Fumble, 51 to HC 14, 41 to HC 32, 39 to HC 11
Total: Syracuse 5 Holy Cross 0
FG: Good from 52, Good from 26
Total: Syracuse 2 Holy Cross 0
XP: Good, Good, Good, Good, Good
Total: Syracuse 5 Holy Cross 0
Kicking plays total: Syracuse 16 Holy Cross 1

1r: 4, 5, 5, 11(15), 5, 2, 4, 2, 3, 0, 4, -2, 4
Total: Syracuse 8 Holy Cross 5
1p: I, I, 14, 17TD, 12, I, 23, I, 7, -6(s), 3, I, 6, 70TD, 2, 3
Total: Syracuse 7 Holy Cross 9
First Down Total: Syracuse 15 Holy Cross 14
2r: I, I, 14, 17TD, 12, I, 23, I, 7, -6(S), 3, I, 6, 70TD, 2, 3
Total: Syracuse 7 Holy Cross 5
2p: 12, 19, 14TD, 7(5), 3, 5, -2, I, 12(8), I, 13(6), 6(Scr)
Total: Syracuse 8 Holy Cross 4
Second Down Total: Syracuse 15 Holy Cross 9
3r: 0, 1(1), 1(5), -1, 3(2)
Total: Syracuse 2 Holy Cross 3
3p: I, I, -2(S), I, I, 8(6), 47TD, Interception, 9(5), I, 3(7)
Total: Syracuse 3 Holy Cross 8
Third Down Total: Syracuse 5 Holy Cross 11
4r: 19TD, Fumble, 3(4)
Total: Syracuse 1 Holy Cross 2
4p: none
Total: Syracuse 0 Holy Cross 0
Fourth Down Total: Syracuse 1 Holy Cross 2

Total on running plays: Syracuse 18 Holy Cross 15
Total on passing plays: Syracuse 18 Holy Cross 21
Total on plays from scrimmage: Syracuse 36 Holy Cross 36

Penalties not tacked on to plays: -5, -5, +5, -5 Syracuse 1 Holy Cross 3

Game total when SYRACUSE had the ball: Syracuse 53 Holy Cross 40


When HOLY CROSS had the ball:

KO: SU 42
Total: Syracuse 1 Holy Cross 0
P: 40 to SU 37, 37 to SU 32, 38 to SU 32, 31 to SU 22, 50 to SU 39, 12 to HC 27, 49 to SU 36, 39 to SU 30, 51 to SU 29, Recovered Fumble
Total: Syracuse 5 Holy Cross 5
FG: Good from 48
Total: Syracuse 0 Holy Cross 1
XP: none
Total: Syracuse 0 Holy Cross 0
Kicking plays total: Syracuse 6 Holy Cross 6

1r: 2, 6, 5, 4, 0, 0, -2, -4, -2, 5, 1, 5, 6, 8
Total: Syracuse 7 Holy Cross 7
1p: 19, 1, I, I, 18(P), 6, I, I, -5(s), 6
Total: Syracuse 6 Holy Cross 4
First Down Total: Syracuse 13 Holy Cross 11
2r: 0, 0, 4, 2, 2(19), 1(4), -1, 2, 10(5), 0, 1(2)
Total: Syracuse 8 Holy Cross 3
2p: I, I, 8(5), 27, I, 12(15), I, 5(17), 1(Scr), I, I, I
Total: Syracuse 9 Holy Cross 3
Second Down Total: Syracuse 17 Holy Cross 6
3r: 0, -2, 0
Total: Syracuse 3 Holy Cross 0
3p: -4, I, 14(9), -8(S), I, 6(3), I, 2, -8(S), I, I, -10(S), I, 10(4)
Total: Syracuse 11 Holy Cross 3
Third Down Total: Syracuse 14 Holy Cross 3
4r: none
Total: Syracuse 0 Holy Cross 0
4p: I, I, I
Total: Syracuse 3 Holy Cross 0
Fourth Down Total: Syracuse 3 Holy Cross 0

Total on running plays: Syracuse 18 Holy Cross 10
Total on passing plays: Syracuse 29 Holy Cross 10
Total on plays from scrimmage: Syracuse 47 Holy Cross 20

Penalties not tacked on to plays: -5, -5, +15, -5, -5, -15 Syracuse 4 Holy Cross 1

Game total when HOLY CROSS had the ball: Syracuse 57 Holy Cross 27

Overall Game Total: Syracuse 110 Holy Cross 67

Comments: The stat that jumps into your lap is 36-36: Half of Syracuse scrimmage plays got the Orange what they wanted and half of them got Holy Cross what they wanted. Contrast that to our defensive numbers when 47 of Holy Crosses play favored us and only 20 favored them. That should be the ratio on both sides of the ball against a mediocre FCS team. We got some explosive plays that gave us a comfortable margin but we should have dominated this team on a play-by-play basis.

The game highlighted what a weapon Sterling Hofrichter is. There couldn’t be more of a contrast between his booming kicks, as a high as thye were far, (and his line drive field goal that was good from 52 and would have bene good form 62 or more), and the end-over-end bloopers of the Holy cross kicker. Our average starting positon was on our 40 yards line. Theirs was their 27. We have 967 yards to go when we got the ball. They had 1,234, a hidden advent age of 267 yards for us.



GAME BY GAME and TOTALS FOR THE YEAR

When SYRACUSE had the ball:

KO: 4-0 + 4-0 + 3-0 + 7-1 + 4-1 = 22-2
P: 6-0 + 3-2 + 9-0 + 5-0 + 5-0 = 28-2
FG: 1-0 + 0-0 + 2-0 + 1-0 + 2-0 = 6-0
XP: 3-0 + 2-1 + 0-0 + 7-0 + 5-0 = 17-1
Kicking plays total: 14-0 + 9-3 + 14-0 + 20-1 + 16-1 = 73-5

1r: 5-13 + 8-3 + 4-7 + 9-16 + 8-5 = 34-44
1p: 3-8 + 10-10 + 6-9 + 6-5 + 7-9 = 32-41
First Down Total: 8-21 + 18-13 + 10-16 +15-21 + 15-14 = 66-85
2r: 10-1 + 3-4 + 5-8 + 5-7+ 7-5 = 30-25
2p: 6-10 + 6-8 + 2-8 + 11-6 + 8-4 = 33-36
Second Down Total: 16-11 + 9-12 + 7-16 + 16-13 + 15-9 = 63-61
3r: 5-5 + 3-4 + 2-5 + 3-3 + 2-3 = 15-20
3p: 4-5 + 2-5 + 2-10 + 5-5 + 3-8 = 16-33
Third Down Total: 9-10 + 5-9 + 4-15 + 8-8 + 5-11 = 31-53
4r: 2-1 + 0-0 + 0-1 + 1-0 + 1-2 = 4-4
4p: 0-1 + 0-3 + 0-2 + 0-0 + 0-0 = 0-6
Fourth Down Total: 2-2 + 0-3 + 0-3 + 1-0 + 1-2 = 4-10

Total on running plays: 22-20 + 15-11 + 11-21 +18-26 + 18-15 = 84-93
Total on passing plays: 13-24 + 18-26 + 10-29 + 22-16 + 18-21 = 81-116
Total on plays from scrimmage: 35-44 + 33-37 + 21-50 + 40-42 + 36-36 = 165-209

Penalties not tacked on to plays: 0-4 + 2-4 + 3-4 + 2-6 + 1-3 = 8-21

Game total when SYRACUSE had the ball: 49-48 + 44-44 + 38-54 + 62-49 + 53-40 = 246-235


When OPPONENT had the ball:

KO: 0-1 + 4-6 + 0-7 + 2-3 + 1-0 = 7-17
P: 2-6 + 2-1 + 3-3 + 1-3 + 5-5 = 13-18
FG: 0-1 + 0-0 + 1-2 + 0-0 + 0-1 = 1-4
XP: 0-0 + 0-9 + 0-5 + 1-4 + 0-0 = 1-18
Kicking plays total: 2-8 + 6-16 + 4-17 + 4-10 + 6-6 = 22-57

1r: 10-5 + 9-17 + 6-13 + 10-8 + 7-7 = 42-50
1p: 11-8 + 9-7 + 7-8 + 10-7 + 6-4 = 43-34
First Down Total: 21-13 + 18-24 + 13-21 + 20-15 + 13-11 = 85-84
2r: 5-2 + 5-7 + 1-6 + 2-6 + 8-3 = 21-24
2p: 12-6 + 6-7 + 9-7 + 9-7 + 9-3 = 45-30
Second Down Total: 17-8 + 11-14 + 10-13 + 11-13 + 17-6 = 66-54
3r: 5-1 + 0-4 + 1-2 + 2-2 + 3-0 = 11-9
3p: 8-2 + 4-7 + 8-3 + 7-5 + 11-3 = 38-20
Third Down Total: 13-3 + 4-11 + 9-5 + 9-7= 14-3 = 49-29
4r: 0-0 + 0-0 + 0-0 + 2-0 + 0-0 = 2-0
4p: 1-0 + 0-0 + 0-0 + 2-1 + 3-0 = 6-1
Fourth Down Total: 1-0 + 0-0 + 0-0 + 4-1 + 3-0 = 8-1

Total on running plays: 20-8 + 14-28 + 8-21 + 16-16 + 18-10 = 76-83
Total on passing plays: 32-16 + 19-21 + 24-18 + 28-20 + 29-10 = 132-85
Total on plays from scrimmage: 52-24 + 33-49 + 32-39 + 44-36 + 47-20 = 208-168

Penalties not tacked on to plays: 1-4 + 0-3 + 3-3 + 3-4 + 4-1 = 11-15

Game total when OPPONENT had the ball: 55-36 + 39-68 + 39-59 + 51-50 + 57-27 = 241-240

Overall game total: 104-84 + 82-112 + 77-113 + 113-99 + 110-67 = 487-475

Comments: Overall, we are 165-209 on offensive plays from scrimmage, which reflects the problems we’ve had in our offensive line. That’s got to be turned around if we are to make something of this season. It may not seem like it but we are actually 161-148 on defensive plays from scrimmage. It’s the big plays that have mattered. But we are once again very good at getting off the field on third or fourth down, (57-30). But we’ve lost that knack on offense, (35-63).


HISTORICAL WINNING PLAYS (Babers Era – game totals only)

2016
Syracuse 101 Colgate 74 = +27
Syracuse 99 Louisville 132 = -33
Syracuse 95 South Florida 116 = -21
Syracuse 91 Connecticut 99 = -8
Syracuse 98 Notre Dame 111 = -13
Syracuse 72 Wake Forest 101 = -29
Syracuse 103 Virginia Tech 104 = -1
Syracuse 93 Boston College 84 = +9
Syracuse 74 Clemson 120 = -46
Syracuse 71 North Carolina State 103 = -32
Syracuse 71 Florida State 120 = -49
Syracuse 107 Pittsburgh 118 = -11
TOTAL: Syracuse 1075 Opponent 1282 = -207 We 'won' 2 of 12 games.

2017
Syracuse 132 Central Connecticut 65 = +67
Syracuse 104 Middle Tennessee 98 = +6
Syracuse 107 Central Michigan 100 = +7
Syracuse 80 Louisiana State 103 = -23
Syracuse 93 North Carolina State 112 = -19
Syracuse 97 Pittsburgh 96 = +1
Syracuse 95 Clemson 97= -2
Syracuse 86 Miami 119 = -33
Syracuse 90 Florida State 108 = -18
Syracuse 120 Wake Forest 125 = -5
Syracuse 96 Louisville 100 = -4
Syracuse 77 Boston College 87 = -10
TOTAL: Syracuse 1177 Opponents 1210 = -33 We’ve ‘won’ 4 of12 games

2018
Syracuse 109 Western Michigan 96 = +13
Syracuse 139 Wagner 65 = +74
Syracuse 113 Florida State 77 = +36
Syracuse 109 Connecticut 83 = +26
Syracuse 86 Clemson 102= -16
Syracuse 99 Pittsburgh 97 = +2
Syracuse 113 North Carolina 115 = -2
Syracuse 113 North Carolina State 96 = +17
Syracuse 117 Wake Forest 107 = +10
Syracuse 124 Louisville 83 = +41
Syracuse 86 Notre Dame 99 = -13
Syracuse 110 Boston College 96 = +14
Syracuse 116 West Virginia 79 +37
TOTAL: Syracuse 1434 Opponents 1195 = +239 We ‘won’ 10 of 13 games

2019
Syracuse 104 Liberty 84 = +20
Syracuse 82 Maryland 112 = -30
Syracuse 77 Clemson 113 = -36
Syracuse 113 Western Michigan 99 = +14
Syracuse 110 Holy Cross 67 = +43

Totals since 2016: Syracuse has won 4,172 plays, (50.1%) and 19 games, (45.2%). The opposition has won 4,162 plays and 23 games. We’ve obtained their goals on 10 more plays than we have in 42 games, an average of 0.2 plays a game.
 

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