Winning Plays 2019 - Pittsburgh

[SWC75]

This season I will once again be charting Syracuse’s games in terms of “winning plays”. I look at the results of each play and decide which team got the minimum they wanted out of the play. Rather than making instinctive judgments, I use a formula:

- On first down, the offensive team wants to get at least a third of the way to a new first down: they will have two more plays before they might have to surrender the ball and if they gain that same amount of yards on each of those two plays, they’ll get the first down. If they don’t make it a third of the way to a new first down, the defense won the play.
- On second down, the offense wants to get at least halfway to a new first down by the same logic.
- On third and fourth down, they want to get the first down.
- Penalties, if added onto a play by the referees, are added on to the results above. If the offense gains 5 yards on first down but there was holding and they lost yardage instead, the defense won the play. If a running back made a 20 yard run on first and ten and the holding was 15 yards downfield, turning it into a 5 yard gain, that’s still a win for the offense. If the defense is penalized and it’s tacked on, again the net result is what is evaluated. The penalties I’ve listed negated the play entirely and are a “loss” for the penalized team and thus a win for their opponent. .
- If a penalty was not tacked onto a play, it’s a lost play for the team being penalized. I'll count them separate from the other plays from scrimmage because I don't know if the intended play before the penalty would have been a run or a pass - so i wouldn't know where to put it in the chart below.
- A turnover is, obviously, a win for the team that wound up with the ball.
- On a kick-off a touchback brings the ball out to the 25 yard line. Teams still seem to be trying to kick the ball into the end zone and avoid a runback if they can, so any kick-off that results in the receiving team starting between their goal line and their 25 is a win for the kicking team. Beyond that, the receiving team wins.
- On a punt, a touchback takes the ball out of the 20. So any punt that results in the other team taking over from their goal line to their 20 is a win for the punting team. If the next change in field position is at least 40 yards, the punting tam has also won the play.
- A successful place kick is, obviously, a win for the kicking team.
- Any play that results in a touchdown is, obviously, a win for that team that scores it.
- A “victory play” where a team accepts a loss just to let the clock run out, is a win for the offensive team.

I will indicate in parenthesis how many yards there were to go to get a new first down, (if other than 10), unless it was for no gain or negative yardage. If it was a touchdown, (“TD)” a scramble/sack (“S”) a victory play (“V”) or involved a penalty (P). I’ll treat a scramble or a sack as a passing play as the Cuse.com play by play now tells you when it’s either of those two. 1R means first down running plays. 1P means first down passing plays, etc.

When Syracuse had the ball:

KO: Pitt 13, Pitt 25, Pitt 25, Pitt 25, Pitt 25
Total: Syracuse 5 Pittsburgh 0
P: 46 to Pitt 25, 33 to Pitt 18, recovered Fumble, 36 to SU 39, 44 to Pitt 15, 48 to Pitt 4, 35 to Pitt 20
Total: Syracuse 6 Pittsburgh 1
FG: Good from 28, Good from 20, No Good from 49
Total: Syracuse 2 Pittsburgh 1
XP: Good, Good
Total: Syracuse 2 Pittsburgh 0
Kicking plays total: Syracuse 15 Pittsburgh 2

1r: 1, 7, 3, 23, 19, -3, -2v, 0, 3, 8, -3, 0, 1
Total: Syracuse 5 Pittsburgh 8
1p: I, I, 13, I, I, -7(s), 2, 3, I, I, I, 7, 1(s), I, I, I, I, 40, I, I
Total: Syracuse 3 Pittsburgh 17
First Down Total: Syracuse 8 Pittsburgh 25
2r: 1(7), 1(4)
Total: Syracuse 0 Pittsburgh 2
2p: 13, I, I, I, 29(15), 7(3), I, 11(80, 9(70, -1(s), 6, -8(s), I, 1(s), 2(s), 9(s), 5(70, -3, I, I, I, 10, 8, 7TD
Total: Syracuse 11 Pittsburgh 13
Second Down Total: Syracuse 11 Pittsburgh 15
3r: 1(3), 8(7)
Total: Syracuse 1 Pittsburgh 1
3p: -7(s), -5(s), I, 5, -3(s), 18(4), I, -12(s), 94TD, I, 12(13), -6(s), 11(10), -12(s), I
Total: Syracuse 5 Pittsburgh 10
Third Down Total: Syracuse 6 Pittsburgh 11
4r: 1(1), 3(2)
Total: Syracuse 2 Pittsburgh 0
4p: none
Total: Syracuse 0 Pittsburgh 0
Fourth Down Total: Syracuse 2 Pittsburgh 0

Total on running plays: Syracuse 8 Pittsburgh 11
Total on passing plays: Syracuse 19 Pittsburgh 40
Total on plays from scrimmage: Syracuse 27 Pittsburgh 51

Penalties not tacked on to plays: -5, -5, -5, +15, -5, +15, +15, -5, -10 Syracuse 3 Pittsburgh 5

Game total when Syracuse had the ball: Syracuse 45 Pittsburgh 58


When Pittsburgh had the ball:

KO: SU 25, SU 25, SU 16, SU 25
Total: Syracuse 0 Pittsburgh 5
P: 41 to SU 23, 30 to SU 40, 33 to SU 9, 44 to SU 15, 57 to SU 5(p), 37 to SU 30, 47 to SU 14
Total: Syracuse 2 Pittsburgh 5
FG: Good from 47, Good from 34
Total: Syracuse 0 Pittsburgh 2
XP: Good, Good, Good
Total: Syracuse 0 Pittsburgh 3
Kicking plays total: Syracuse 2 Pittsburgh 15

1r: 3, 10, 0, 5, 19, 3, 21, -2, 7, 3(15), 8, 4, 2, 6, -4, 0, 2, -5, 4, 2, 10, 2, -2v
Total: Syracuse 12 Pittsburgh 11
1p: 10, 21, 43TD, I, 2, I, I, 6, I, I, 14TD, 7
Total: Syracuse 6 Pittsburgh 6
First Down Total: Syracuse 18 Pittsburgh 17
2r: 4(5), -5, 4, 5TD, 17, 1(3), 1(4), 2(6), -1, 6(8), -2v
Total: Syracuse 5 Pittsburgh 6
2p: -1(s), I, I, 13(12), I, 2(8), 6, -8,(s), I, I, I, I, 6, 19(15), 9(15)
Total: Syracuse 10 Pittsburgh 5
Second Down Total: Syracuse 15 Pittsburgh 11
3r: -4, 20 (4p), 3(2), -2v
Total: Syracuse 1 Pittsburgh 3
3p: 11(8), I, I, 15(8), 14(60, I, 22(6), 18(4), I, 15(4), 16(6), -5(s), I, 5(4), -5(s), 6, I
Total: Syracuse 9 Pittsburgh 8
Third Down Total: Syracuse 10 Pittsburgh 11
4r: none
Total: Syracuse 0 Pittsburgh 0
4p: none
Total: Syracuse 0 Pittsburgh 0
Fourth Down Total: Syracuse 0 Pittsburgh 0

Total on running plays: Syracuse 18 Pittsburgh 20
Total on passing plays: Syracuse 25 Pittsburgh 19
Total on plays from scrimmage: Syracuse 43 Pittsburgh 39

Penalties not tacked on to plays: -5, +13, +10, -5 Syracuse 2 Pittsburgh 2

Game total when Pittsburgh had the ball: Syracuse 47 Pittsburgh 56

Overall Game Total: Syracuse 92 Pittsburgh 114

Comments: What jumps right out at me is our dismal performance on first down passes: we won 3 of 20 plays. Seven of those 20 passes were incomplete. First down is the easiest down to complete passes on because the other teams can’t assume that you are going to pass. But we made no attempt to establish a running game, even to just keep the defense honest, and we had 13 first down incompletions. That’s 13 times it was 2nd and 10: actually 15 since we twice ran for no gain: we also lost three on another run for 2nd and 13 and had two 1 yard runs for 2nd and 9. We also had three 5 yard penalties so we just kept digging holes for ourselves when Pitt knew we had to throw the ball and that led to the 9 sacks and numerous scrambles, hurries, etc.

Our kickers were imperfect, (a missed 49 yard field goal and one punt that netted only 37 yards), but still good. The thing is, against Pittsburgh we didn’t have an advantage because they were equally good, 9they made all their placekicks but has a net 33 and 30 yard punts). We are used to having an advent age there and when we don’t, it matters. Each team had 13 possessions and our average starting point was our own 24 with a total of 984 yards to get to the other goal line. Theirs was their own 28 with 932 yards to go. That’s an advantage of 52 yard to Pitt. Last year we had a big advent age in this stat in almost every game.

If the Pitt game seemed like the NC State game, you aren’t worn about that. In both games we fell behind in the first half, (3-13 and 6-24), and looked to be on the way to a one-sided defeat but our defense rallied to hold the opposition to a single second half field goal so the sputtering offense could have a chance to win it at the end, (but we didn’t). We had 78 successful plays against NC State vs. 100 for them, which is -22. In this game we had 92 successful plays and Pitt 114, also -22. On the nose.

 

[SWC75]

GAME BY GAME and TOTALS FOR THE YEAR

When SYRACUSE had the ball:

KO: 4-0 + 4-0 + 3-0 + 7-1 + 4-1 + 1-2 + 5-0 = 28-4
P: 6-0 + 3-2 + 9-0 + 5-0 + 5-0 + 4-3 + 6-1 = 38-6
FG: 1-0 + 0-0 + 2-0 + 1-0 + 2-0 + 1-1 + 2-1 = 9-2
XP: 3-0 + 2-1 + 0-0 + 7-0 + 5-0 + 1-0 + 2-0 = 20-1
Kicking plays total: 14-0 + 9-3 + 14-0 + 20-1 + 16-1 + 7-6 + 15-2 = 95-13

1r: 5-13 + 8-3 + 4-7 + 9-16 + 8-5 + 2-11 + 5-8 = 41-63
1p: 3-8 + 10-10 + 6-9 + 6-5 + 7-9 + 11-8 + 3-17 = 46-66
First Down Total: 8-21 + 18-13 + 10-16 +15-21 + 15-14 + 13-19 + 8-25 = 87-129
2r: 10-1 + 3-4 + 5-8 + 5-7+ 7-5 + 4-7 + 0-2 = 34-34
2p: 6-10 + 6-8 + 2-8 + 11-6 + 8-4 + 8-6 + 11-13 = 52-55
Second Down Total: 16-11 + 9-12 + 7-16 + 16-13 + 15-9 + 12-13 + 11-15 = 86-89
3r: 5-5 + 3-4 + 2-5 + 3-3 + 2-3 + 2-2 + 1-1 = 18-23
3p: 4-5 + 2-5 + 2-10 + 5-5 + 3-8 + 3-9 + 5-10 = 24-52
Third Down Total: 9-10 + 5-9 + 4-15 + 8-8 + 5-11 + 5-11 + 6-11 = 42-75
4r: 2-1 + 0-0 + 0-1 + 1-0 + 1-2 + 1-0 + 2-0 = 7-4
4p: 0-1 + 0-3 + 0-2 + 0-0 + 0-0 + 0-1 + 0-0 = 0-7
Fourth Down Total: 2-2 + 0-3 + 0-3 + 1-0 + 1-2 + 1-1 + 2-0 = 7-11

Total on running plays: 22-20 + 14-11 + 11-21 +18-26 + 18-15 + 9-20 + 8-11= 100-124
Total on passing plays: 13-24 + 18-26 + 10-29 + 22-16 + 18-21 + 22-24 + 19-40 = 122-180
Total on plays from scrimmage: 35-44 + 32-37 + 21-50 + 40-42 + 36-36 + 31-44 + 27-51= 222-304

Penalties not tacked on to plays: 0-4 + 2-4 + 3-4 + 2-6 + 1-3 + 2-7 + 3-5 = 13-33

Game total when SYRACUSE had the ball: 49-48 + 43-44 + 38-54 + 62-49 + 53-40 + 40-57 + 45-58 = 330-350


When OPPONENT had the ball:

KO: 0-1 + 4-6 + 0-7 + 2-3 + 1-0 + 0-5 + 0-5 = 7-27
P: 2-6 + 2-1 + 3-3 + 1-3 + 5-5 + 1-4 + 2-5 = 16-27
FG: 0-1 + 0-0 + 1-2 + 0-0 + 0-1 + 0-3 + 0-2 = 1-9
XP: 0-0 + 0-9 + 0-5 + 1-4 + 0-0 + 0-1 + 0-3 = 1-22
Kicking plays total: 2-8 + 6-16 + 4-17 + 4-10 + 6-6 + 1-13 + 2-15 = 25-85

1r: 10-5 + 9-17 + 6-13 + 10-8 + 7-7 + 9-5 + 12-11 = 63-66
1p: 11-8 + 9-7 + 7-8 + 10-7 + 6-4 + 3-12 + 6-6 = 52-52
First Down Total: 21-13 + 18-24 + 13-21 + 20-15 + 13-11 + 12-17 + 18-17 = 115-118
2r: 5-2 + 5-7 + 1-6 + 2-6 + 8-3 + 6-7 + 5-6 = 32-37
2p: 12-6 + 6-7 + 9-7 + 9-7 + 9-3 + 6-1 + 10-5 = 61-36
Second Down Total: 17-8 + 11-14 + 10-13 + 11-13 + 17-6 + 12-8 + 15-11 = 93-73
3r: 5-1 + 0-4 + 1-2 + 2-2 + 3-0 + 1-2 + 1-3 = 13-14
3p: 8-2 + 4-7 + 8-3 + 7-5 + 11-3 + 10-2 + 9-8 = 57-30
Third Down Total: 13-3 + 4-11 + 9-5 + 9-7= 14-3 + 11-4 + 10-11= 70-44
4r: 0-0 + 0-0 + 0-0 + 2-0 + 0-0 + 0-0 + 0-0 = 2-0
4p: 1-0 + 0-0 + 0-0 + 2-1 + 3-0 + 0-0 + 0-0 = 6-1
Fourth Down Total: 1-0 + 0-0 + 0-0 + 4-1 + 3-0 + 0-0 + 0-0 = 8-1

Total on running plays: 20-8 + 14-28 + 8-21 + 16-16 + 18-10 +16-14 + 18-20 = 110-117
Total on passing plays: 32-16 + 19-21 + 24-18 + 28-20 + 29-10 + 19-15 + 25-19 = 176-119
Total on plays from scrimmage: 52-24 + 33-49 + 32-39 + 44-36 + 47-20 + 35-29 + 43-39 = 286-236

Penalties not tacked on to plays: 1-4 + 0-3 + 3-3 + 3-4 + 4-1 + 2-1 + 2 -2 = 15-18

Game total when OPPONENT had the ball: 55-36 + 39-68 + 39-59 + 51-50 + 57-27 + 38-43 + 47-56 = 326-339

Overall game total: 104-84 + 82-112 + 77-113 + 113-99 + 110-67 + 78-100 + 92-114 = 656-689

Comments: Overall, we are 222-304 on offensive plays from scrimmage, which reflects the problems we’ve had in our offensive line. That’s got to be turned around if we are to make something of this season. It may not seem like it but we are actually 286-236 on defensive plays from scrimmageWe are still strong on third and fourth down defense, (78-45) but have lost the knack we had of picking up first downs on such plays on offense, (49-86)

HISTORICAL WINNING PLAYS (Babers Era – game totals only)

2016
Syracuse 101 Colgate 74 = +27
Syracuse 99 Louisville 132 = -33
Syracuse 95 South Florida 116 = -21
Syracuse 91 Connecticut 99 = -8
Syracuse 98 Notre Dame 111 = -13
Syracuse 72 Wake Forest 101 = -29
Syracuse 103 Virginia Tech 104 = -1
Syracuse 93 Boston College 84 = +9
Syracuse 74 Clemson 120 = -46
Syracuse 71 North Carolina State 103 = -32
Syracuse 71 Florida State 120 = -49
Syracuse 107 Pittsburgh 118 = -11
TOTAL: Syracuse 1075 Opponent 1282 = -207 We 'won' 2 of 12 games.

2017
Syracuse 132 Central Connecticut 65 = +67
Syracuse 104 Middle Tennessee 98 = +6
Syracuse 107 Central Michigan 100 = +7
Syracuse 80 Louisiana State 103 = -23
Syracuse 93 North Carolina State 112 = -19
Syracuse 97 Pittsburgh 96 = +1
Syracuse 95 Clemson 97= -2
Syracuse 86 Miami 119 = -33
Syracuse 90 Florida State 108 = -18
Syracuse 120 Wake Forest 125 = -5
Syracuse 96 Louisville 100 = -4
Syracuse 77 Boston College 87 = -10
TOTAL: Syracuse 1177 Opponents 1210 = -33 We’ve ‘won’ 4 of12 games

2018
Syracuse 109 Western Michigan 96 = +13
Syracuse 139 Wagner 65 = +74
Syracuse 113 Florida State 77 = +36
Syracuse 109 Connecticut 83 = +26
Syracuse 86 Clemson 102= -16
Syracuse 99 Pittsburgh 97 = +2
Syracuse 113 North Carolina 115 = -2
Syracuse 113 North Carolina State 96 = +17
Syracuse 117 Wake Forest 107 = +10
Syracuse 124 Louisville 83 = +41
Syracuse 86 Notre Dame 99 = -13
Syracuse 110 Boston College 96 = +14
Syracuse 116 West Virginia 79 +37
TOTAL: Syracuse 1434 Opponents 1195 = +239 We ‘won’ 10 of 13 games

2019
Syracuse 104 Liberty 84 = +20
Syracuse 82 Maryland 112 = -30
Syracuse 77 Clemson 113 = -36
Syracuse 113 Western Michigan 99 =+14
Syracuse 110 Holy Cross 67 = +43
Syracuse 78 North Carolina State 100 = -22
Syracuse 92 Pittsburgh 114 = -22
Totals since 2016: Syracuse has won 4,342 plays, (49.8%) and 19 games, (44.2%). The opposition has won 4,376 plays and 25 games. They’ve obtained their goals on 34 more plays than we have in 44 games, an average of 0.8 plays a game.