Winning Plays 2020 - North Carolina

[SWC75]

This season I will once again be charting Syracuse’s games in terms of “winning plays”. I look at the results of each play and decide which team got the minimum they wanted out of the play. Rather than making instinctive judgments, I use a formula:

- On first down, the offensive team wants to get at least a third of the way to a new first down: they will have two more plays before they might have to surrender the ball and if they gain that same amount of yards on each of those two plays, they’ll get the first down. If they don’t make it a third of the way to a new first down, the defense won the play.
- On second down, the offense wants to get at least halfway to a new first down by the same logic.
- On third and fourth down, they want to get the first down.
- Penalties, if added onto a play by the referees, are added on to the results above. If the offense gains 5 yards on first down but there was holding and they lost yardage instead, the defense won the play. If a running back made a 20 yard run on first and ten and the holding was 15 yards downfield, turning it into a 5 yard gain, that’s still a win for the offense. If the defense is penalized and it’s tacked on, again the net result is what is evaluated. The penalties I’ve listed negated the play entirely and are a “loss” for the penalized team and thus a win for their opponent. .
- If a penalty was not tacked onto a play, it’s a lost play for the team being penalized. I'll count them separate from the other plays from scrimmage because I don't know if the intended play before the penalty would have been a run or a pass - so i wouldn't know where to put it in the chart below.
- A turnover is, obviously, a win for the team that wound up with the ball.
- On a kick-off a touchback brings the ball out to the 25 yard line. Teams still seem to be trying to kick the ball into the end zone and avoid a runback if they can, so any kick-off that results in the receiving team starting between their goal line and their 25 is a win for the kicking team. Beyond that, the receiving team wins.
- On a punt, a touchback takes the ball out of the 20. So any punt that results in the other team taking over from their goal line to their 20 is a win for the punting team. If the next change in field position is at least 40 yards, the punting tam has also won the play.
- A successful place kick is, obviously, a win for the kicking team.
- Any play that results in a touchdown is, obviously, a win for that team that scores it.
- A “victory play” where a team accepts a loss just to let the clock run out, is a win for the offensive team.

I will indicate in parenthesis how many yards there were to go to get a new first down, (if other than 10), unless it was for no gain or negative yardage. If it was a touchdown, (“TD)” a scramble/sack (“S”) a victory play (“V”) or involved a penalty (P). I’ll treat a scramble or a sack as a passing play as the Cuse.com play by play now tells you when it’s either of those two. 1R means first down running plays. 1P means first down passing plays, etc.


The North Carolina game

When SYRACUSE had the ball:

KO: NC 35, NC 21
Total: Syracuse: 1 North Carolina: 1
P: 43 to NC 24, 50 to NC 25, 44 to NC 21 (Fumble), 39 to NC 22, 37 to NC 36, 49 to NC 23, 40 to NC 32, 15 to SU 44, 35 to NC 33
Total: Syracuse: 5 North Carolina: 4
FG: Good from 37, No Good from 29, Good from 24
Total: Syracuse: 2 North Carolina: 1
XP: none
Total: Syracuse: 0 North Carolina: 0
Kicking plays total: Syracuse: 8 North Carolina: 6

1r: 0, 0, 2, 3, 4, 14, 3, 3, -1, 15, -1, 3, 6, 2
Total: Syracuse: 4 North Carolina: 10
1p: I, I, -3, 15(15), 7, 14, 8, I, I, 22, I, I, I, 5, I, I
Total: Syracuse: 6 North Carolina: 10
First Down Total: Syracuse: 10 North Carolina: 20
2r: 6(8), 6(6), 1(3), 2, 6, 1, 1(4), 3
Total: Syracuse: 3 North Carolina: 5
2p: 5, -3, I, 8(7), I, I, 13(2), I, I, 16(7), I, I, -10s, I, 7(5), I
Total: Syracuse: 5 North Carolina:11
Second Down Total: Syracuse: 8 North Carolina:16
3r: 9, 8(8), 11(11), 13(20), 0
Total: Syracuse: 2 North Carolina: 3
3p: 6(5), I, -6s, -9s, I, -6s, -3s, -1s, -2s, I, 4, 10(7), Interception
Total: Syracuse: 2 North Carolina: 11
Third Down Total: Syracuse: 4 North Carolina: 14
4r: -1
Total: Syracuse: 0 North Carolina: 1
4p: none
Total: Syracuse: 0 North Carolina: 0
Fourth Down Total: Syracuse: 0 North Carolina: 1

Total on running plays: Syracuse: 15 North Carolina: 19
Total on passing plays: Syracuse: 13 North Carolina: 32
Total on plays from scrimmage: Syracuse: 28 North Carolina: 51

Penalties not tacked on to plays: -5, -5, -5 +15, +15 Syracuse: 2 North Carolina: 3

Game total when Syracuse had the ball: Syracuse:38 North Carolina: 60

When NORTH CAROLINA had the ball:

KO: SU 25, SU 25, SU 25, SU 25, SU 25
Total: Syracuse: 0 North Carolina:5
P: 46 to SU 28, 46 to SU 21, 30 to SU 10, 42 to SU 20
Total: Syracuse: 0 North Carolina: 4
FG: No Good from 50, Good from 31
Total: Syracuse: 1 North Carolina: 1
XP: Good, Good, Good, Good
Total: Syracuse: 0 North Carolina: 4
Kicking plays total: Syracuse: 1 North Carolina: 14

1r: 4, -2, 17, 11, 3, 1, -1, 20, -1V, 3, 4, 8, 2, 12, 6TD, 6TD, 2, 8, 1
Total: Syracuse: 8 North Carolina: 11
1p: 7, I, 11TD, 5, 4, 6, 7, 8, 3, 10, I, 15, I, 13, 12(5), 23, 38
Total: Syracuse: 4 North Carolina: 13
First Down Total: Syracuse: 12 North Carolina: 24
2r: 2(6), 3(12), 0, 1(3), 3, 4, 45, 1TD, -5, -1, 7(11)
Total: Syracuse: 8 North Carolina:3
2p: -7s, I, I, I, 3(7), 18(9), I, 7(4), Interception, 16(7), I
Total: Syracuse: 8 North Carolina: 3
Second Down Total: Syracuse: 16 North Carolina: 6
3r: 9(11), -3, 4(3)
Total: Syracuse: 2 North Carolina: 1
3p: 22, 13, Interception, 2(9), 7(6), 12(19), 22(6), -5s, 8(13)
Total: Syracuse: 5 North Carolina: 4
Third Down Total: Syracuse: 7 North Carolina: 5
4r: none
Total: Syracuse: 0 North Carolina: 0
4p: 18
Total: Syracuse: 0 North Carolina: 1
Fourth Down Total: Syracuse:0 North Carolina: 1

Total on running plays: Syracuse: 18 North Carolina: 15
Total on passing plays: Syracuse: 17 North Carolina: 21
Total on plays from scrimmage: Syracuse: 35 North Carolina: 36

Penalties not tacked on to plays: Syracuse: 2 North Carolina: 4

Game total when North Carolina had the ball: Syracuse: 37 North Carolina: 54

Overall game total: Syracuse: 75 North Carolina: 114

Comments: We were poor on first down runs, (4-10) but not much better on first down passes (6-10). We had 8 first down incompletions. That’s the easiest down to pass on because the defense is expecting a run. (At leas tit was for NC, who won 13 of 17 of their first down passes.) Still, that’s not as bad as going 2 for 11 on third down pass plays, including 6 of the 7 sacks TD suffered.

While our offense was 28-51 on plays from scrimmage our defense was a much more competitive 35-36. The thing is, we were 12-24 on first down and 23-12 after that. We were 10-20 on our first down plays. They were 24-12 on their first down plays. Ball game.

Nolan Cooney did a great job getting the ball downfield as a punter (47.8 yards per punt), but as a team, (including Cooney who might have lacked some hang time – hard to tell on TV), we gained 39.1 yards in field positon. UNC got 93 yards on 6 returned punts, an average of 15.5 yards per return. Last year we were 3rd in the country in net punting with 43.0. Yesterday’s effort would have been 46th based on last year’s stats.

Despite that, we had an advantage in field position, largely due to the turnovers. Our average starting positon was the SU33 vs. the NC28 for them. In 14 possessions, we had 938 yards to go to score. In 15 possessions, they had 1,076 yards to go. Eliminate the final possession, (which began on the NC 47), and that’s still 1,023. That’s 85 yards of hidden offense for SU. Unfortunately we were -261 in visible offense.

Last year we won 163 of the 193 plays when we kicked the ball. We need more than 8-6 to have a shot at winning and ACC game this year, especially if the other team wins 14 of 15 of their kicks.

Overall, we were 75-114 = -39, meaning that NC got what they wanted out of a play 39 more times than we did. We lost 6-31. These are the most comparable games in the Dino Babers Era:
2016 Syracuse 99 Louisville 132 = -33 and we lost 28-62
2017 Syracuse 86 Miami 119 = -33 and we lost 19-27
2019 Syracuse 77 Clemson 113 = -36 and we lost 6-41
2019 Syracuse 76 Boston College 119 = -43 and we lost 27-58
The Clemson game, which was 6-17 until midway through the third quarter, is probably the best match.

 

[SWC75]

HISTORICAL WINNING PLAYS (Babers Era – game totals only)

2016
Syracuse 101 Colgate 74 = +27
Syracuse 99 Louisville 132 = -33
Syracuse 95 South Florida 116 = -21
Syracuse 91 Connecticut 99 = -8
Syracuse 98 Notre Dame 111 = -13
Syracuse 72 Wake Forest 101 = -29
Syracuse 103 Virginia Tech 104 = -1
Syracuse 93 Boston College 84 = +9
Syracuse 74 Clemson 120 = -46
Syracuse 71 North Carolina State 103 = -32
Syracuse 71 Florida State 120 = -49
Syracuse 107 Pittsburgh 118 = -11
TOTAL: Syracuse 1075 Opponent 1282 = -207 We 'won' 2 of 12 games.

2017
Syracuse 132 Central Connecticut 65 = +67
Syracuse 104 Middle Tennessee 98 = +6
Syracuse 107 Central Michigan 100 = +7
Syracuse 80 Louisiana State 103 = -23
Syracuse 93 North Carolina State 112 = -19
Syracuse 97 Pittsburgh 96 = +1
Syracuse 95 Clemson 97= -2
Syracuse 86 Miami 119 = -33
Syracuse 90 Florida State 108 = -18
Syracuse 120 Wake Forest 125 = -5
Syracuse 96 Louisville 100 = -4
Syracuse 77 Boston College 87 = -10
TOTAL: Syracuse 1177 Opponents 1210 = -33 We ‘won’ 4 of12 games

2018
Syracuse 109 Western Michigan 96 = +13
Syracuse 139 Wagner 65 = +74
Syracuse 113 Florida State 77 = +36
Syracuse 109 Connecticut 83 = +26
Syracuse 86 Clemson 102= -16
Syracuse 99 Pittsburgh 97 = +2
Syracuse 113 North Carolina 115 = -2
Syracuse 113 North Carolina State 96 = +17
Syracuse 117 Wake Forest 107 = +10
Syracuse 124 Louisville 83 = +41
Syracuse 86 Notre Dame 99 = -13
Syracuse 110 Boston College 96 = +14
Syracuse 116 West Virginia 79 +37
TOTAL: Syracuse 1434 Opponents 1195 = +239 We ‘won’ 10 of 13 games

2019
Syracuse 104 Liberty 84 = +20
Syracuse 82 Maryland 112 = -30
Syracuse 77 Clemson 113 = -36
Syracuse 113 Western Michigan 99 =+14
Syracuse 110 Holy Cross 67 = +43
Syracuse 78 North Carolina State 100 = -22
Syracuse 92 Pittsburgh 114 = -22
Syracuse 96 Florida State 115 = -19
Syracuse 76 Boston College 119 = -43
Syracuse 107 Duke 78 = +29
Syracuse 85 Louisville 104 = -19
Syracuse 118 Wake Forest 111 = +7
TOTAL: Syracuse 1138 Opponents 1216 = -78 We ‘won’ 5 of 12 games

2020
Syracuse 75 North Carolina 114 = -39
TOTAL: Syracuse 75 Opponents 114 = -39 We’ve won 0 of 1 games

Totals since 2016: Syracuse has won 4,899 plays, (49.4%) and 21 games, (42.0%). The opposition has won 5,017 plays and 29 games. They’ve obtained their goals on 118 more plays than we have in 50 games, an average of 2.4 plays a game.