Winning Plays 2023 - Purdue

[SWC75]

This season I will once again be charting Syracuse’s games in terms of “winning plays”. I look at the results of each play and decide which team got the minimum they wanted out of the play. Rather than making instinctive judgments, I use a formula:

- On first down, the offensive team wants to get at least a third of the way to a new first down: they will have two more plays before they might have to surrender the ball and if they gain that same amount of yards on each of those two plays, they’ll get the first down. If they don’t make it a third of the way to a new first down, the defense won the play.
- On second down, the offense wants to get at least halfway to a new first down by the same logic.
- On third and fourth down, they want to get the first down.
- Penalties, if added onto a play by the referees, are added on to the results above. If the offense gains 5 yards on first down but there was holding and they lost yardage instead, the defense won the play. If a running back made a 25 yard run on first and ten and the holding was 20 yards downfield, turning it into a 5 yard gain, that’s still a win for the offense. If the defense is penalized and it’s tacked on, again the net result is what is evaluated. The penalties I’ve listed negated the play entirely and are a “loss” for the penalized team and thus a win for their opponent.
- If a penalty was not tacked onto a play, it’s a lost play for the team being penalized. I'll count them separate from the other plays from scrimmage because I don't know if the intended play before the penalty would have been a run or a pass - so I wouldn't know where to put it in the chart below.
- A turnover is, obviously, a win for the team that wound up with the ball.
- On a kick-off a touchback brings the ball out to the 25 yard line. Teams still seem to be trying to kick the ball into the end zone and avoid a runback if they can, so any kick-off that results in the receiving team starting between their goal line and their 25 is a win for the kicking team. Beyond that, the receiving team wins.
- On a punt, a touchback takes the ball out of the 20. So any punt that results in the other team taking over from their goal line to their 20 is a win for the punting team. If the next change in field position is at least 40 yards, the punting team has also won the play.
- A successful place kick is, obviously, a win for the kicking team.
- Any play that results in a touchdown is, obviously, a win for that team that scores it.
- A “victory play” where a team accepts a loss just to let the clock run out, is a win for the offensive team.

I will indicate in parenthesis how many yards there were to go to get a new first down, (if other than 10), unless it was for no gain or negative yardage. If it was a touchdown, (“TD)” a scramble/sack (“S”) a victory play (“V”) or involved a penalty (P). I’ll treat a scramble or a sack as a passing play as the Cuse.com play by play now tells you when it’s either of those two. 1R means first down running plays. 1P means first down passing plays, etc.

I have decided to list the “Big Plays” at the bottom of each team’s summary. A big play is a play from scrimmage of over 20 yards, (or 20+ yards lost), kickoff returns of +25 yards, punt returns of +20, blocked kicks, missed kicks, and turnovers on fumbles, interceptions and downs.

When Syracuse had the ball:

Drive Starts: Syr20, Syr6, Syr25, Syr36, Syr24, Syr19, Pur40, Syr19, Syr25, Syr13, Pur39, Syr18 = 326/12 = Syr27 with 874 yards to go.

KO: Pur25, Pur25, Pur25, Pur25, Pur25, Pur25
Total: Syracuse 6 Purdue 0
P: 20 to Pur43, 27 to Pur42(p), 40 to Pur30
Total: Syracuse 1 Purdue 2
FG: No Good from 44
Total: Syracuse 0 Purdue 1
XP: Good, Good, Good, Good, Good
Total: Syracuse 5 Purdue 0
Kicking plays total: Syracuse 12 Purdue 3

1r: 1, -1, 1, 20, 3TD, 1, 0, 14(p), 0, 2TD, 2, 8, 8, 2, 0, 1TD, 3, 2, 6, 28TD, 6, 21, -1(v)
Total: Syracuse 12 Purdue 9
1p: 8, 6, I, 9, I, 0, I, I, 34, I, -1(s), INTERCEPTION, I
Total: Syracuse 4 Purdue 9
First Down Total: Syracuse 16 Purdue 18
2r: 1(5), 13(9), 13, 4(8), -1, 0, 3(8), 5(4), 39(4)
Total: Syracuse 5 Purdue 4
2p: 13(9), I, 9, 5(2), 27(4), I, I, 26, 6, 2, I, 7(11), I
Total: Syracuse 7 Purdue 6
Second Down Total: Syracuse 12 Purdue 10
3r: 15, 35TD, 10(8), 4(4), 4(2)
Total: Syracuse 5 Purdue 0
3p: 9(16), I, -11(s), -1(s), 10(4), 26(11), I
Total: Syracuse 7 Purdue 5
Third Down Total: Syracuse 7 Purdue 5
4r: none
Total: Syracuse 0 Purdue 0
4p: -5(s)
Total: Syracuse 0 Purdue 1
Fourth Down Total: Syracuse 0 Purdue 1

Total on running plays: Syracuse 22 Purdue 13
Total on passing plays: Syracuse 13 Purdue 21
Total on plays from scrimmage: Syracuse 35 Purdue 34


Penalties not tacked on to plays: -5, -4, +15, +15, +12, +15 Syracuse Purdue

Game total when Syracuse had the ball: Syracuse 53 Purdue 38

Big Plays: (13) Pur FUMBLE, 27yd pass, Pur FUMBLE, 35 yard TD run, 26yd pass, Pur FUMBLE, 20yd run, 34 yd pass, Pur INTERCEPTION, 26yd pass, 28 yd pass, 39yd run, 21yd run


When Purdue had the ball:

Drive Starts: Pur43, Pur25, Pur42, Pur25, Pur26, Pur25, Pur25, Pur34, Pur25, Pur30, Pur25 = 325/11 = Pur30 with 775 yards to go.

KO: Syr20, Syr24, Syr25, Syr13
Total: Syracuse 0 Purdue 4
P: 45 to Syr25, 43 to Syr43
Total: Syracuse 0 Purdue 2
FG: none
Total: Syracuse 0 Purdue 0
XP: Good, Good, Good
Total: Syracuse 0 Purdue 3
Kicking plays total: Syracuse 0 Purdue 9

1r: 3, 1, 9, 10, 5, 3, 9, FUMBLE, 2, 0, 2, -3, 2, 6, 7(15), 4(5), 1TD, 5
Total: Syracuse 9 Purdue 9
1p: 17, -1, 39(p), 2TD, 5, I, 27(p), 7, INTERCEPTION, I, I, I, 21, I, I, 18, 10, 14, 9, I
Total: Syracuse 9 Purdue 11
First Down Total: Syracuse 18 Purdue 20
2r: 0, 0, 2(1), 1(8), 5TD, 0, 10(8)
Total: Syracuse 3 Purdue 4
2p: 1(7), 5(9), 6(11), FUMBLE(s), I, I, 23(15), 17(8), 5(3), 11, -9(s), 2, ((7), 15(8), 7, 4(5), I, I
Total: Syracuse 8 Purdue 9
Second Down Total: Syracuse 11 Purdue 13
3r: 9(8), 1(3), 3(4), 0
Total: Syracuse 3 Purdue 1
3p: 11(6), 5(4), I, 20(7), 11(5), 11(19), 6(20)
Total: Syracuse 4 Purdue 3
Third Down Total: Syracuse 7 Purdue 4
4r: FUMBLE
Total: Syracuse 1 Purdue 0
4p: 6(2), I, I
Total: Syracuse 2 Purdue 1
Fourth Down Total: Syracuse 3 Purdue 1

Total on running plays: Syracuse 16 Purdue 14
Total on passing plays: Syracuse 23 Purdue 24
Total on plays from scrimmage: Syracuse 39 Purdue 38

Penalties not tacked on to plays: +15, -5, +15, -10, +15, +14, -10 Syracuse 4 Purdue 3

Game total when Purdue had the ball: Syracuse 96 Purdue 88

Big Plays: (7) 20yd pass, 39yd pass, Syr missed field goal, 23yd pass, Syr INTERCEPTION, 21yd pass, 28yd run(p)

Comments: It was quite a battle between the Purdue offense and the Syracuse defense: first down runs were 9-9, passes 9-11, second down runs 3-4, passes 8-9, third down runs 3-1, passes 4-3, fourth down runs 1-0, passes 2-1. But put a combined 10-5 on third and fourth down plays with 4 turnovers, (plus a couple more that should have been ours), and I think we have a winner. Our offense was 7-6 on third and fourth down with one, (disputed), turnover and we had 13 big plays to 7, (9 to 5 offensive plays).

Of the penalties NOT tacked on to plays, there were just three that were 5 yarders, (one was 4 due to proximity to the goal) and 11 were 10 or 15 yarders. It was a physical game, (at least according to the refs).

I encountered this sequence in multiple play-by-pays, right after the play where Purdue got to keep the ball because a guy with his foot out of bounds touched the ball:
1st & 10 at SYR 26
(11:52 - 4th) Devin Mockobee run for 6 yds to the SYR 20 Devin Mockobee fumbled, recovered by PUR Deion Burks
2nd & 4 at SYR 20
(11:52 - 4th) Devin Mockobee run for no gain to the SYR 20
3rd & 4 at SYR 20
(11:52 - 4th) Hudson Card run for 3 yds to the SYR 17
1st & 10 at SYR 17
(11:52 - 4th) Purdue Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the SYR 22
How did Hudson Card run for 3 yards on 3rd and 4 and wind up with a first down? Purdue got their last touchdown off of that. (I just credited him with the 3 yards and left it at that.)

This was a +8 game, (96 plays won by Syracuse – 88 by Purdue). Here are the five most similar games in the Babers Era:

2016 Boston College 93-84 = +9
2017 Central Michigan 107-100 = +7
2019 Wake Forest 118-111 = +7
2021 Boston College 86-79 = +7
2022 Purdue 99-92 = +7
SU and Purdue seem to be a good match for each other.

 

[SWC75]

TOTALS FOR THE YEAR

When SYRACUSE had the ball:

Drive Starts:
564/14 = SU 40 with 836 yards to go
301/12 = SU 25 with 899 yards to go
326/12 = SU 27 with 874 yards to go
1,191/38 = SU 31 with 2,609 yards to go

KO: 11-0 + 6-1 + 6-0 = 23-1
P: 1-0 + 4-0 + 1-2 = 6-2
FG: 1-0 + 2-0 + 0-1 = 3-1
XP: 8-1 + 6-0 + 5-0 = 19-1
Kicking plays total: 21-1 + 18-1 + 12-3 = 51-5

1r: 14-14 + 7-11 + 12-9 = 33-34
1p: 11-3 + 7-9 + 4-9 = 22-21
First Down Total: 25-17 + 14-20 + 16-18 = 55-55
2r: 12-5 + 8-3 + 5-4 = 25-12
2p: 7-5 + 5-9 + 7-6 = 19-20
Second Down Total: 19-10 + 13-12 + 12-10 = 44-32
3r: 4-2 + 2-1 + 5-0 = 11-3
3p: 7-4 + 5-5 + 2-5 = 14-14
Third Down Total: 11-6 + 7-6 + 7-5 = 25-17
4r: 0-1 + 0-0 + 0-0 = 0-1
4p: 0-0 + 0-0 + 0-1 = 0-1
Fourth Down Total: 0-1 + 0-0 + 0-1 = 0-2

Total on running plays: 30-22 + 17-15 + 22-13 = 69-50
Total on passing plays: 25-12 + 17-23 + 13-21 = 55-56
Total on plays from scrimmage: 55-34 + 34-38 + 35-34 = 124-106

Penalties not tacked on to plays: 0-2 + 4-4 + 6-1 = 10-7

Game total when SYRACUSE had the ball: 76-37 + 56-43 + 53-38 = 185-118

Big Plays: 12 + 8 +13 = 33

When OPPONENT had the ball:

Drive Starts:
399/16 = C25 with 1,201 yards to go
316/12 = WM26 with 884 yards to go
325/11 = Pur30 with 775 yards to go
1,040/39 = Opp27 with 2,860 yards to go

KO: 0-1 + 2-0 + 0-4 = 2-5
P: 3-6 + 1-5 + 0-2 = 4-13
FG: 0-0 + 0-0 + 0-0 = 0-0
XP: 0-0 + 0-1 + 0-3 = 0-4
Kicking plays total: 3-7 + 3-6 + 0-9 = 6-22

1r: 14-6 + 13-1 + 9-9 = 36-16
1p: 1-1 + 6-5 + 9-11 = 16-17
First Down Total: 15-7 + 19-6 + 18-20 = 52-33
2r: 3-3 + 2-4 + 3-4 = 8-11
2p: 9-3 + 9-10 + 8-9 = 26-22
Second Down Total: 12-6 + 11-14 + 11-13 = 34-33
3r: 4-2 + 2-1 + 3-1 = 9-4
3p: 9-1 + 11-5 + 4-3= 24-9
Third Down Total: 13-3 + 13-6 + 7-4 = 33-13
4r: 0-0 + 0-0 + 1-0 = 1-0
4p: 1-0 + 4-1 + 2-1 = 7-2
Fourth Down Total: 1-0 + 4-1 + 3-1 = 8-2

Total on running plays: 21-11 + 17-6 + 16-14 = 54-31
Total on passing plays: 20-5 + 30-21 + 23-24 = 73-50
Total on plays from scrimmage: 41-16 + 47-27 + 39-38 = 127-81

Penalties not tacked on to plays: 6-2 + 3-0 + 4-3 = 13-5

Game total when OPPONENT had the ball: 51-25 + 53-33 + 43-50 = 147-108

Big Plays: 4 + 3 + 7 = 14

Overall Game Total: 127-62 + 109-76 + 96-88 = 332-226

Comments: My perception and I think that of many others is that our defense, (147-108) is better than our offense, (185-118). I’m glad it’s an open question. I think the offense can get much better. I’m not sure the defense can. But they may not need to.

We’ve kicked the ball 56 times and got what we wanted out of it 51 times. Our opposition was just 13-6 when they kicked the ball until Purdue went 9-0.

We’ve 3-0 but are 33-34 in first down runs. That isn’t dominating. But 38-15 is. That was our rate of winning second and third down runs. I guess the greater threat of a pass after first down loosened up the defense. Where we are really dominating is on defense: 36-16 on first down runs. We’re also pretty good at third down passes, 24-9. Those are two very good downs to dominate.

If we keep up a ratio of 33 big plays to 14, nobody is beating us.

 

[SWC75]

HISTORICAL WINNING PLAYS (Babers Era – game totals only)

2016
Syracuse 101 Colgate 74 = +27
Syracuse 99 Louisville 132 = -33
Syracuse 95 South Florida 116 = -21
Syracuse 91 Connecticut 99 = -8
Syracuse 98 Notre Dame 111 = -13
Syracuse 72 Wake Forest 101 = -29
Syracuse 103 Virginia Tech 104 = -1
Syracuse 93 Boston College 84 = +9
Syracuse 74 Clemson 120 = -46
Syracuse 71 North Carolina State 103 = -32
Syracuse 71 Florida State 120 = -49
Syracuse 107 Pittsburgh 118 = -11
TOTAL: Syracuse 1075 Opponent 1282 = -207 We 'won' 2 of 12 games.

2017
Syracuse 132 Central Connecticut 65 = +67
Syracuse 104 Middle Tennessee 98 = +6
Syracuse 107 Central Michigan 100 = +7
Syracuse 80 Louisiana State 103 = -23
Syracuse 93 North Carolina State 112 = -19
Syracuse 97 Pittsburgh 96 = +1
Syracuse 95 Clemson 97= -2
Syracuse 86 Miami 119 = -33
Syracuse 90 Florida State 108 = -18
Syracuse 120 Wake Forest 125 = -5
Syracuse 96 Louisville 100 = -4
Syracuse 77 Boston College 87 = -10
TOTAL: Syracuse 1177 Opponents 1210 = -33 We ‘won’ 4 of12 games

2018
Syracuse 109 Western Michigan 96 = +13
Syracuse 139 Wagner 65 = +74
Syracuse 113 Florida State 77 = +36
Syracuse 109 Connecticut 83 = +26
Syracuse 86 Clemson 102= -16
Syracuse 99 Pittsburgh 97 = +2
Syracuse 113 North Carolina 115 = -2
Syracuse 113 North Carolina State 96 = +17
Syracuse 117 Wake Forest 107 = +10
Syracuse 124 Louisville 83 = +41
Syracuse 86 Notre Dame 99 = -13
Syracuse 110 Boston College 96 = +14
Syracuse 116 West Virginia 79 +37
TOTAL: Syracuse 1434 Opponents 1195 = +239 We ‘won’ 10 of 13 games

2019
Syracuse 104 Liberty 84 = +20
Syracuse 82 Maryland 112 = -30
Syracuse 77 Clemson 113 = -36
Syracuse 113 Western Michigan 99 =+14
Syracuse 110 Holy Cross 67 = +43
Syracuse 78 North Carolina State 100 = -22
Syracuse 92 Pittsburgh 114 = -22
Syracuse 96 Florida State 115 = -19
Syracuse 76 Boston College 119 = -43
Syracuse 107 Duke 78 = +29
Syracuse 85 Louisville 104 = -19
Syracuse 118 Wake Forest 111 = +7
TOTAL: Syracuse 1138 Opponents 1216 = -78 We ‘won’ 5 of 12 games

2020
Syracuse 70 North Carolina 114 = -44
Syracuse 78 Pittsburgh 89 = -11
Syracuse 108 Georgia Tech 102 = +6
Syracuse 79 Duke 114 = -35
Syracuse 77 Liberty 93 = -16
Syracuse 72 Clemson 112 = -40
Syracuse 76 Wake Forest 99 = -23
Syracuse 68 Boston College 96 = -28
Syracuse 76 Louisville 81 = -5
Syracuse 76 North Carolina State 108 = -32
Syracuse 82 Notre Dame 100 = -18
TOTAL: Syracuse 862 Opponents 1108 = -248 We ‘won’ 1 of 11 games

2021
Syracuse 86 Ohio U. 63 = +23
Syracuse 64 Rutgers 101 = -37
Syracuse 103 Albany 69 = +34
Syracuse 79 Liberty 83 = -4
Syracuse 79 Florida State 90 = -11
Syracuse 102 Wake Forest 92 = +10
Syracuse 79 Clemson 99 = -20
Syracuse 90 Virginia Tech 94 = -4
Syracuse 86 Boston College 79 = +7
Syracuse 56 Louisville 91 = -35
Syracuse 65 North Carolina State 88 = -23
Syracuse 67 Pittsburgh 95 = -28
TOTAL: Syracuse 956 opponents 1044 = -88 We ‘won’ 4 of 12 games

2022
Syracuse 92 Louisville 73 = +19
Syracuse 96 Connecticut 59 = +37
Syracuse 99 Purdue 92 = +7
Syracuse 88 Virginia 99 = -11
Syracuse 103 Wagner 28 = +75
Syracuse 89 North Carolina State 65 = +24
Syracuse 77 Clemson 102 = -25
Syracuse 66 Notre Dame 113 = -47
Syracuse 66 Pittsburgh 95 = -29
Syracuse 59 Florida State 100 = -41
Syracuse 82 Wake Forest 114 = -32
Syracuse 107 Boston College 79 = +28
Syracuse 85 Minnesota 84 = +1 We ‘won’ 7 of 13 games
TOTAL: Syracuse 1,109 opponents 1,103 = +6

2023
Syracuse 127 Colgate 62 = +65
Syracuse 109 Western Michigan 76 = +33
Syracuse 96 Purdue 88 = +8 We’ve won 2 of 2 games.
TOTAL: Syracuse 332 Opponents 226 = +106
Totals since 2016: Syracuse has won 8,083 plays, (49.1%) and 35 games, (39.3%). The opposition has won 8,384 plays and 54 games. They’ve obtained their goals on 301 more plays than we have in 88 games, an average of 3.4 plays a game.