Winning Plays - after NC State

[SWC75]

Once again I’m going to chart our football games according to which team “won” each play. The idea is that you ask yourself what was the minimum acceptable result the team with the ball wanted and then, if they achieved at least that result, they “won” the play. If they didn’t, the other team “won” the play. I break down the results by the circumstances of the play: first down ruins, first down passes, same for second down, third down and fourth down. Then I look at each kicking play, penalties, turnovers, etc. The result is a total that shows if a team won by dominating play after play or by getting the big plays- turnovers, long gains, kick returns, blocked kicks, etc. it gives you a view of how the game was physically. It also gives you an idea of what areas we need to improve our recruiting. If we are losing a majority of the plays, look to the line of scrimmage. If we are not getting the big plays, look to the playmakers and the coach’s philosophy. The break-out allows us to see how we did in certain situations, such as first downs runs or passes.

Here is the scoring system I’ve been using: On a play from scrimmage, the team with the ball is trying to either get a first down or a touchdown, (the latter being the only goal if it is a “goal to go” situation). If they get 1/3 of the way to those goals, (rounding the goal up), on first down they have “won the play because if they gained that amount of yardage three times in a row, they’d keep the ball for another series of down or they’d score. On second down they want to get halfway to their goal. On third or fourth down, they want to obtain the goal because if they don’t, they’d have to surrender the ball or settle for a lesser goal, (a field goal instead of a touchdown). If the offense doesn’t win the play, then the defense won the play.

On place kicks, it’s simple: if the kicking team scored the field the field goal or extra point, they won the play. On kick-offs, since touchbacks go out to the 25, any kickoff that ends with the receiving team having the ball no farther in than the 25 yards line is a win for the kicking team. Anything beyond that is a win for the receiving team. On a punt, the touchback comes out to the 20 so any punt that results in the other team getting the ball no further rout than their 20 is a win for the punting team. Also, any punt that gains the kicking at least 40 yards in field positon is a win for them. I’m not interested in how far the punt travels. I’m interested in where the other team will star their next play. Kick-offs after a safety will be judged as if they were punts. You want to get the ball at least a net 40 yards downfield. Ifg it’s within the 25, you obviously did that.

Turnovers are, obviously wins for the defense. This year I’ve decided to list them under the circumstances of the play, that is if it was a second down running play and there is a fumble, I’ll put “fumble” under “2R”, rather than listing it on a separate line under turnovers. It will be a lost play of the offense counted under second down running plays.

Sacks are counted as passing plays. “Victory” plays are wins for the team with the ball because they are just trying to get the clock moving so it will run out.

Penalties will be counted as plays under the circumstances of the play. If they negate a play or are tacked onto it, it’s part of the result of the play. A gain negated by an offside penalty is a -5 play. A 20 yard run turned into a 10 yard loss by a clip is a -10 play7. If you jump offside on second down and they blow the play dead, I’ll assume it was a passing play if it was at least second and five unless the play-by play says otherwise. Within 5 yards, I’ll assume it was a running play. If it was first down, I’ll assume a run, third or fourth down I’ll assume a pass, again unless it says otherwise. If it was a penalty not associated with a play, (unsportsmanlike conduct, etc. I’ll list it using the same assumptions about down and distance.

Beginning with the FLORIDA STATE game, I’m making one change in my evaluation of a winning play. If a team punts in the opposition’s territory, they are clearly looking to pin them down near their goal line and would at a touchback as a failure so a punt that produces a net change of less than 30 yards and results in a touchback will be a lost play. I’m not going to look back through all the plays in the other games I’ve analyzed and redo them but from now on less than thirty yards with a touchback is a lost play.

Glossary:

KICKS
KO = Kickoffs I’ll just list where the ball wound up, unless it was a TD or turnover.
P = Punts. I’ll list the net distance and where the ball wound up, unless it was a TD or turnover.
FG= Field Goal attempts. I’ll list the distance and ‘G’ (good) or ‘NG” (no good)
XP= Extra Points. Just G or NG unless it’s not from the normal distance due to a penalty. The penalty will be listed as a separate attempt (-5, -10, -15, etc) and lost paly for the kicking team.

SCRIMMAGE PLAYS
I’ll list the yardage gained or lost and put the yards needed for a first down or touchdown in parenthesis if other than 10, unless there is no gain or a loss, which would be a win for the defesne regardless of the yardage needed..
1r = First down rushing play.
1p= First down passing play.
Same for second down, (2r, 2p), third down (3r,3p) and fourth down (4r,4p)
I = Incomplete pass
INT = interception
FUM = fumble
TD = touchdown
P = penalty
S = sack
V= “Victory” play

When SYRACUSE had the ball:

KO: NCS 25, NCS 27, NCS 9, NCS 27, On-side SU at NCS 40, On-side NCS at SU 19
Total: Syracuse 3 North Carolina State 3
P: 29, (NCS 49), 67 (NCS 13, -5P, 51 (NCS 16), 20 (NCS 18), 35 (NCS 20), 41 (NCS 14)
Total: Syracuse 5 North Carolina State 2
FG: GOOD from 18
Total: Syracuse 1 North Carolina State 0
XP: +1P, 2pt try NO GOOD, GOOD, GOOD,, 2pt try NO GOOD
Total: Syracuse 3 North Carolina State 2

Kicking plays total: Syracuse 12 North Carolina State 7

1r 4, 3, 1, -3, -2, +5P, 2 -2V, 75TD, 15, -2, 6, FUM, 1, 5, 1, -10P, 3
Total: Syracuse 6 North Carolina State 12
1p 37, 16(5), 30TD, I, 17,6, I, +15P, 9, I
Total: Syracuse 7 North Carolina State 3
First Down Total: Syracuse 13 North Carolina State 15
2r 14(6), 1(13), 2(8), 0, -1, 17(4), -2, -3, -1
Total: Syracuse 2 North Carolina State 7
2p 9(22), I, I, +15P, I, I, I, 11(10)
Total: Syracuse 2 North Carolina State 6
Second Down Total: Syracuse 4 North Carolina State 13
3r 3, -4, 7(12), 11 (1),-1
Total: Syracuse 2 North Carolina State 3
3p +15P, -5P, -7S, +15P, I, INT-TD, -5P, -3S, 14(5), I
Total: Syracuse 3 North Carolina State 7
Third Down Total: Syracuse 5 North Carolina State 10
4r 3TD
Total: Syracuse 1 North Carolina State 0
4p none
Total: Syracuse 0 North Carolina State 0
Fourth Down Total: Syracuse 1 North Carolina State 0

Total on running plays: Syracuse 11 North Carolina State 22
Total on passing plays: Syracuse 12 North Carolina State 16
Total on plays from scrimmage: Syracuse 23 North Carolina State 38

Game total when SYRACUSE had the ball: Syracuse 35 North Carolina State 45


When NORTH CAROLINA STATE had the ball:

KO: SU 28, SU 37, SU 30, SU 25, SU 25, SU 29, SU 28
Total: Syracuse 5 North Carolina State 2
P: 56 (SU 32), 35 (SU 20), 34 (SU 40)
Total: Syracuse 1 North Carolina State 2
FG: none
Total: Syracuse 0 North Carolina State 0
XP: GOOD, GOOD, GOOD, GOOD, GOOD, GOOD
Total: Syracuse 0 North Carolina State 6

Kicking plays total: Syracuse 6 North Carolina State 10

1r 7, 19, 6, 3, -2, 2(3), 13, -2, 0, 11, 6, 1, 4td, 13, 13, 7, 11, 0, 3, 0, -2, 4, 17td, -6p, 7(16), 7, 0, -1v
Total: Syracuse 11 North Carolina State 17
1p 13, 25, 7, I, -5, 20, 5td, 6, I, 34
Total: Syracuse 3 North Carolina State 7
First Down Total: Syracuse 14 North Carolina State 24
2r +2p, 38(3), 6, 2, 18(4), 19(11), 11, 11(9),2(3), -1
Total: Syracuse 2 North Carolina State 8
2p 11(3), 6(4), 9(7), -6, I, I, 3(12), 3(9), 19(3), I, I, I, -10s, I, I, -5p
Total: Syracuse 12 North Carolina State 4
Second Down Total: Syracuse 14 North Carolina State12
3r 1TD, 2(4), 6(20), 2(4), FUM-TD, 15(11)
Total: Syracuse 4 North Carolina State 2
3p 7TF, I, 12(9), 7(8), 10(6), INT, 34, I, -2S
Total: Syracuse 5 North Carolina State 4
Third Down Total: Syracuse 9 North Carolina State 6
4r none
Total: Syracuse 0 North Carolina State 0
4p 5(2), 12(1), 11(7)
Total: Syracuse 0 North Carolina State 3
Fourth Down Total: Syracuse 0 North Carolina State 3

Total on running plays: Syracuse 17 North Carolina State 27
Total on passing plays: Syracuse 20 North Carolina State 15
Total on plays from scrimmage: Syracuse 37 North Carolina State 45

Game total when NORTH CAROLINA STATE had the ball: Syracuse 43 North Carolina State 55

Overall Game Total: Syracuse 78 North Carolina State 100

Comments: On offense, another poor performance on first down runs, (6-12) hurt us but we were worse on all second, (4-13) and third down (5-10) plays. Overall we lost 11 of 33 running plays. Our usual excellence in the kicking game was compromised by two tries for two and two onsides kicks. Defensively we did better than it looked but the Wolfpack certainly ran the ball better than we did (17-27). We actually did pretty well against the pass, especially on second down, (12-4). They also didn’t do that well in the kicking game, (6-10 but six of those plays were extra points), and their plays were all actual kicks. Overall it was a another semi-competitive performance, (78-100) but one where we again came up short.

 

[SWC75]

SEASON TOTALS

When SYRACUSE had the ball:

KO: Syracuse 45 Opponent 13
P: Syracuse 48 Opponent 12
FG: Syracuse 15 Opponent 6
XP: Syracuse 35 Opponent 3

Kicking plays total: Syracuse 143 Opponent 34

1r Syracuse 92 Opponent 123
1p Syracuse 61 Opponent 48
First Down Total: Syracuse 153 Opponent 171
2r Syracuse 50 Opponent 59
2p Syracuse 41 Opponent 69
Second Down Total: Syracuse 91 Opponent 128
3r Syracuse 27 Opponent 36
3p Syracuse 31 Opponent 72
Third Down Total: Syracuse 58 Opponent 108
4r Syracuse 10 Opponent 5
4p Syracuse 3 Opponent 2
Fourth Down Total: Syracuse 13 Opponent 7

Total on running plays: Syracuse 179 Opponent 223
Total on passing plays: Syracuse 136 Opponents 191
Total on plays from scrimmage: Syracuse 315 Opponent 414

Game total when SYRACUSE had the ball: Syracuse 458 Opponent 448


When THE OPPONENT had the ball:

KO: Syracuse 20 Opponent 39
P: Syracuse 19 Opponent 31
FG: Syracuse 5 Opponent 16
XP: Syracuse 0 Opponent 42

Kicking plays total: Syracuse 44 Opponent 128

1r Syracuse 113 Opponent 120
1p Syracuse 59 Opponent 82
First Down Total: Syracuse 172 Opponent 202
2r Syracuse 51 Opponent 81
2p Syracuse 74 Opponent 70
Second Down Total: Syracuse 125 Opponent 151
3r Syracuse 28 Opponent 29
3p Syracuse 72 Opponent 42
Third Down Total: Syracuse 100 Opponent 71
4r Syracuse 1 Opponent 4
4p Syracuse 2 Opponent 9
Fourth Down Total: Syracuse 3 Opponent 13

Total on running plays: Syracuse 193 Opponent 234
Total on passing plays: Syracuse 207 Opponent 203
Total on plays from scrimmage: Syracuse 400 Opponent 437

Game total when our OPPONENT had the ball: Syracuse 444 Opponent 565

Overall game total: Syracuse 902 Opponent 1013

Comments: Interesting that both Syracuse and its opponents have done poorly on running plays (179-223 and 193-234) but we were significantly worse on first down running plays: 92-123 vs. 113-120. After that is was 87-100 vs. 73-114. Why were we worse than the other team on first down and better on 2nd, 3rd and 4th downs? We ‘ve had a somewhat better kicking game: 143-34 vs. 44-128. Defensively, we got burned through the air mostly on first down (59-82). After that we did markedly better, (148-121).

 

[SWC75]

Historical Winning Plays

(Game totals only)

2011
Syracuse 101 Wake Forest 87
Syracuse 92 Rhode Island 65
Syracuse 75 USC 90
Syracuse 96 Toledo 88
Syracuse 103 Rutgers 99
Syracuse 79 Tulane 99
Syracuse 90 West Virginia 84
Syracuse 74 Louisville 83
Syracuse 84 Connecticut 86
Syracuse 92 South Florida 106
Syracuse 83 Cincinnati 104
Syracuse 87 Pittsburgh 93
TOTAL: Syracuse 1,056 Opponents 1,117

2012
Syracuse 105 Northwestern 116
Syracuse 92 USC 98
Syracuse 93 Stony Brook 82
Syracuse 82 Minnesota 95
Syracuse 85 Pittsburgh 76
Syracuse 93 Rutgers 73
Syracuse 103 Connecticut 70
Syracuse 115 South Florida 92
Syracuse 96 Cincinnati 122
Syracuse 103 Louisville 86
Syracuse 92 Missouri 98
Syracuse 98 Temple 81
Syracuse 105 West Virginia 82
TOTAL: Syracuse 1,262 Opponents 1,171

2013
Syracuse 75 Penn State 113
Syracuse 92 Northwestern 114
Syracuse 115 Wagner 52
Syracuse 107 Tulane 76
Syracuse 64 Clemson 136
Syracuse 111 N C State 85
Syracuse 46 Georgia Tech 113
Syracuse 108 Wake Forest 81
Syracuse 92 Maryland 88
Syracuse 55 Florida State 104
Syracuse 80 Pittsburgh 96
Syracuse 100 Boston College 87
Syracuse 99 Minnesota 79
TOTAL: Syracuse 1,144 Opponents 1,224


2014
Syracuse 91 Villanova 103
Syracuse 99 Central Michigan 76
Syracuse 91 Maryland 91
Syracuse 71 Notre Dame 114
Syracuse 71 Louisville 100
Syracuse 80 Florida State 101
Syracuse 86 Wake Forest 77
Syracuse 75 Clemson 102
Syracuse 92 N C State 101
Syracuse 78 Duke 98
Syracuse 46 Pittsburgh 114
Syracuse 72 Boston College 78
TOTAL: Syracuse 952 Opponents 1,155

2015
Syracuse 96 Rhode Island 56
Syracuse 83 Wake Forest 83
Syracuse 84 Central Michigan 91
Syracuse 84 Louisiana State 89
Syracuse 80 South Florida 93
Syracuse 86 Virginia 97
Syracuse 70 Pittsburgh 89
Syracuse 84 Florida State 100
Syracuse 74 Louisville 110
Syracuse 83 Clemson 105
Syracuse 78 North Carolina State 100
TOTAL: Syracuse 902 Opponents 1013

Comment: We've had trouble winning but haven't had a true blow-outs like Clemson 2013 (64-136), Georgia Tech 2013 (46-113), Florida State 2013 (55-104), Notre Dame 2014 (71-114) or Pittsburgh 2014 (46-114). I think they teams we've played this year knew they were in a game. But they also knew they'd won.