Winning Plays - Albany

[SWC75]

This season I will once again be charting Syracuse’s games in terms of “winning plays”. I look at the results of each play and decide which team got the minimum they wanted out of the play. Rather than making instinctive judgments, I use a formula:

- On first down, the offensive team wants to get at least a third of the way to a new first down: they will have two more plays before they might have to surrender the ball and if they gain that same amount of yards on each of those two plays, they’ll get the first down. If they don’t make it a third of the way to a new first down, the defense won the play.
- On second down, the offense wants to get at least halfway to a new first down by the same logic.
- On third and fourth down, they want to get the first down.
- Penalties, if added onto a play by the referees, are added on to the results above. If the offense gains 5 yards on first down but there was holding and they lost yardage instead, the defense won the play. If a running back made a 20 yard run on first and ten and the holding was 15 yards downfield, turning it into a 5 yard gain, that’s still a win for the offense. If the defense is penalized and it’s tacked on, again the net result is what is evaluated. The penalties I’ve listed negated the play entirely and are a “loss” for the penalized team and thus a win for their opponent. .
- If a penalty was not tacked onto a play, it’s a lost play for the team being penalized. I'll count them separate from the other plays from scrimmage because I don't know if the intended play before the penalty would have been a run or a pass - so i wouldn't know where to put it in the chart below.
- A turnover is, obviously, a win for the team that wound up with the ball.
- On a kick-off a touchback brings the ball out to the 25 yard line. Teams still seem to be trying to kick the ball into the end zone and avoid a runback if they can, so any kick-off that results in the receiving team starting between their goal line and their 25 is a win for the kicking team. Beyond that, the receiving team wins.
- On a punt, a touchback takes the ball out of the 20. So any punt that results in the other team taking over from their goal line to their 20 is a win for the punting team. If the next change in field position is at least 40 yards, the punting tam has also won the play.
- A successful place kick is, obviously, a win for the kicking team.
- Any play that results in a touchdown is, obviously, a win for that team that scores it.
- A “victory play” where a team accepts a loss just to let the clock run out, is a win for the offensive team.

I will indicate in parenthesis how many yards there were to go to get a new first down, (if other than 10), unless it was for no gain or negative yardage. If it was a touchdown, (“TD)” a scramble/sack (“S”) a victory play (“V”) or involved a penalty (P). I’ll treat a scramble or a sack as a passing play as the Cuse.com play by play now tells you when it’s either of those two. 1R means first down running plays. 1P means first down passing plays, etc.

When Syracuse had the ball:

Drive Starts: S38, S19, S35, S25, S30, S47, A12, S30, S42, A27, S15, S12, A46, S32 Average: S39
Total yards to go in 14 possessions: 860

KO: A25, A25, A25, A22, A13, A25, A25, A25, A25, A25
Total: Syracuse 10 Albany 0
P: 38 to A36
Total: Syracuse 0 Albany 1
FG: Good from 48, Good from 28
Total: Syracuse 2 Albany 0
XP: Good, Good, Good, Good, Good, Good, Good, Good
Total: Syracuse 8 Albany 0
Kicking plays total: Syracuse 20 Albany 1

1r: 7, 3, 1(9), 2, 2, 2, 5, 5, 12TD, -8(p) 4(18), 0, 9, 3, 11, 3(5), 1, 0, 1, 13, 5, 8, 5, 11
Total: Syracuse 12 Albany 12
1p: 6, I, Interception-TD, 44(13), 3, 15, 32(p), 2, 21
Total: Syracuse 5 Albany 4
First Down Total: Syracuse 17 Albany 16
2r: 8(3), 8TD, 5(19), 56TD, 3, -24, 4(1), 2T, 26TD, 1, 7(13), -4(p), 1TD, 2
Total: Syracuse 8 Albany 5
2p: 13(4), 6(7), 73TD, I, 12, 14(7), Interception, 11(7), I
Total: Syracuse 6 Albany 3
Second Down Total: Syracuse 14 Albany 8
3r: -2, 50
Total: Syracuse 1 Albany 1
3p: +27(p), I, 72TD, I, 10(9), 15(21)
Total: Syracuse 3 Albany 3
Third Down Total: Syracuse 4 Albany 4
4r: 12(3)
Total: Syracuse 1 Albany 0
4p: none
Total: Syracuse 0 Albany 0
Fourth Down Total: Syracuse 1 Albany 0

Total on running plays: Syracuse 22 Albany 18
Total on passing plays: Syracuse 14 Albany 10
Total on plays from scrimmage: Syracuse 36 Albany 28

Penalties not tacked on to plays: -9, -15, -10, -5, -5, -5, -15, +15, -5 Syracuse 1 Albany 8

Game total when Syracuse had the ball: Syracuse 57 Albany 37


When Albany had the ball:

Drive Starts: A25, A25, A25, A12, A13, A25, A36, A25, A16, A25, S45, A25, A25, S21 Average: A28
Total yards to go in 14 possessions: 1009, 249 more than Syracuse.

KO: S38, S35, S25, Onside recovered on SU 21, S32
Total: Syracuse 3 Albany 2
P: 49 to S19, 38 to S30, 46 to S47(p), 45 to S30, 18 to S42(p), 22 to A27, 35 to S35, 32 to S12, 24 to A46
Total: Syracuse 5 Albany 4
FG: Good from 37
Total: Syracuse 0 Albany 1
XP: Good, Good, Good
Total: Syracuse 0 Albany 3
Kicking plays total: Syracuse 8 Albany 11

1r: 5, 2, 2, 1, 2, 1(26), 0, 2, 3, 1, 2TD, 6
Total: Syracuse 9 Albany 3
1p: 9, 12, I, -5(s), I, 20, I, I, 11, 6, -9(s), -5(s)
Total: Syracuse 7 Albany 5
First Down Total: Syracuse 16 Albany 8
2r: -1(15), -2, 8(7), 1, 0, 1(4)
Total: Syracuse 5 Albany 1
2p: I, 1(5), 7, -3(s), Fumble(s), I, 4, -5(s), 9(10), 7, -5(s)
Total: Syracuse 7 Albany 4
Second Down Total: Syracuse 12 Albany 5
3r: -2, 1(16), 3(24), -4, 7(3)
Total: Syracuse 4 Albany 1
3p: 30(4), I, 8(11), 1(9), I, -6(s), 13(11), 5TD
Total: Syracuse 4 Albany 4
Third Down Total: Syracuse 8 Albany 5
4r: none
Total: Syracuse 0 Albany 0
4p: none
Total: Syracuse 0 Albany 0
Fourth Down Total: Syracuse 0 Albany 0

Total on running plays: Syracuse 18 Albany 5
Total on passing plays: Syracuse 18 Albany 13
Total on plays from scrimmage: Syracuse 36 Albany 18

Penalties not tacked on to plays: -5, -5, +15, +15, +9, +11 Syracuse 2 Albany 4

Game total when Albany had the ball: Syracuse 46 Albany 33

Overall game totals: Syracuse 103 Albany 70


Comments: We had a great offensive game with 623 yards but ‘won’ only 36 of 64 offensive plays. It was a big play game, not about play after play dominance. We had 7 plays that gained 20+ yards totaling 342 yards and two more plays that went above +20 on penalties. We were only 17-16 on first down, (against Ohio U it was 21-9). But we scored 6 touchdowns on second down. We were only 4-4 n third down but the key there is that we ran only 8 third down plays. We’d usually scored by then.

We were dominant on a play-to-play basis on defense, especially against the run, (18-5). Albany, with a guy who ran for 1,290 yards two years ago, ran the ball on first down 12 times and gained a total of 27 yards, with only their first and last carries more than 3 yards. Then there were our 8 sacks when they tried to pass.

We also turned things around in the kicking game, despite the SNAFU on the late kick-off. Against Rutgers we were 7-5 when we kicked the ball and 1-12 when Rutgers kicked it. In this game we were 20-1 when we kicked it and 8-11 when Albany kicked it. That’s going from -9 in a -37 game to +16 in a +33 game.

The “winning plays” might be more one-sided except for the ridiculous 16 penalties.

These are the closest games to this one in the Dino Babers Era:
2016: Syracuse 101 Colgate 74 = +27 We won 33-7
2018: Syracuse 133 Florida State 77 = +36 We won 30-7
2018: Syracuse 109 Connecticut 83 = +26 We won 51-21
2018: Syracuse 124 Louisville 83 = +41 We won 54-23
2018: Syracuse 116 West Virginia 79 = +37 We won 34-18
2019: Syracuse 110 Holy Cross 67 = +43 We won 41-3
2019: Syracuse 107 Duke 78 = +29 We won 49-7
2021: Syracuse 86 Ohio U. 63 = +23 We won 29-9
2021: Syracuse 103 Albany 70 = +33 We won 62-24

 

[SWC75]

GAME BY GAME and TOTALS FOR THE YEAR

When SYRACUSE had the ball:

Drive Starts: 261/9 = S29, 292/13 = S22, 540/14 = S39 Season: 1,073/36 = S30 with 2,527 yards to go, 30 more than the opposition.

KO: 3-3 + 2-0 + 10-0 = 15-3
P: 2-0 + 4-4 + 0-1 = 6-5
FG: 2-0 + 0-1 + 2-0 = 4-1
XP: 3-0 + 1-0 + 8-0 = 12-0
Kicking plays total: 10-3 + 7-5 + 20-1 = 37-9

1r: 16-8 + 5-9 + 12-12 = 33-29
1p: 5-1 + 4-8 + 5-4 = 14-13
First Down Total: 21-9 + 9-17 + 17-16 = 47-42
2r: 10-4 + 3-5 + 8-5 = 21-14
2p: 4-3 + 6-5 + 6-3 = 16-11
Second Down Total: 14-7 + 9-10 + 14-8 = 37-25
3r: 6-0 + 1-1 + 1-1 = 8-2
3p: 2-4 + 2-11 + 3-3 = 7-18
Third Down Total: 8-4 + 3-12 + 4-4 = 15-20
4r: 0-0 + 1-0 + 1-0 = 2-0
4p: 0-0 + 0-0 + 0-0 = 0-0
Fourth Down Total: 0-0 + 1-0 + 1-0 = 2-0

Total on running plays: 32-12 + 10-15 + 22-18 = 64-45
Total on passing plays: 11-8 + 12-24 + 14-10 = 37-42
Total on plays from scrimmage: 43-20 + 22-39 + 36-28 = 101-87

Penalties not tacked on to plays: 0-0 + 0-3 + 1-8 = 1-11

Game total when SYRACUSE had the ball: 53-23 + 29-47 + 57-37 = 139-107


When OPPONENT had the ball:

Drive Starts: 139/8 = O17, 573/14 = 41, 391/14 = O28 Total: 1,103/36 = O31 with 2,497 yards to go, 30 less than Syracuse.

KO: 4-1 + 0-3 + 3-2 = 7-6
P: 1-0 + 0-6 + 5-4 = 6-10
FG: 1-3 + 1-1 + 0-1 = 2-5
XP: 0-0 + 0-2 + 0-3 = 0-5
Kicking plays total: 6-4 + 1-12 + 8-11 = 15-27

1r: 7-9 + 5-12 + 9-3 = 21-24
1p: 5-5 + 5-6 + 7-5 = 17-16
First Down Total: 12-14 + 10-18 + 16-8 = 38-40
2r: 3-9 + 6-6 + 5-1 = 14-16
2p: 5-5 + 3-9 + 7-4 = 15-18
Second Down Total: 8-14 + 9-15 + 12-5 = 29-34
3r: 2-3 + 5-3 + 4-1 = 11-7
3p: 4-3 + 7-0 + 4-4 = 15-7
Third Down Total: 6-6 + 12-3 + 8-5 = 26-14
4r: 0-1 + 1-3 + 0-0 = 1-4
4p: 1-0 + 0-0 + 0-0 = 1-0
Fourth Down Total: 1-1 + 1-3 + 0-0 = 2-4

Total on running plays: 12-22 + 17-24 + 18-5 = 47-51
Total on passing plays: 15-13 + 15-15 + 18-13 = 48-41
Total on plays from scrimmage: 27-35 + 32-39 + 36-18 = 95-92

Penalties not tacked on to plays: 0-1 + 2-3 + 2-4 = 4-8

Game total when OPPONENT had the ball: 33-40 + 35-54 + 46-33 = 114-127

Overall game total: 86-63 + 64-101 + 103-70 = 253-234

Comments: Contrary to perception, we are +32 (139-107) when we have the ball and -13 (114-127) when our opponents have the ball. Albany was the first games, (and maybe the last) where we won the majority of defensive plays, which is hard to do. We’re pretty good on 3rd and 4th down but give up too much on 1st and 2nd down. We also just have 3 takeovers in two games after 24 last year and are -2 for the year.

The only offensive play, (other than 4th down passes: we haven’t attempted any), in which we don’t have a winning record is 3rd down passes: we are 7-18. Everything else, we’ve been good at, (having played two bad teams and one mediocre team).


HISTORICAL WINNING PLAYS (Babers Era – game totals only)

2016
Syracuse 101 Colgate 74 = +27
Syracuse 99 Louisville 132 = -33
Syracuse 95 South Florida 116 = -21
Syracuse 91 Connecticut 99 = -8
Syracuse 98 Notre Dame 111 = -13
Syracuse 72 Wake Forest 101 = -29
Syracuse 103 Virginia Tech 104 = -1
Syracuse 93 Boston College 84 = +9
Syracuse 74 Clemson 120 = -46
Syracuse 71 North Carolina State 103 = -32
Syracuse 71 Florida State 120 = -49
Syracuse 107 Pittsburgh 118 = -11
TOTAL: Syracuse 1075 Opponent 1282 = -207 We 'won' 2 of 12 games.

2017
Syracuse 132 Central Connecticut 65 = +67
Syracuse 104 Middle Tennessee 98 = +6
Syracuse 107 Central Michigan 100 = +7
Syracuse 80 Louisiana State 103 = -23
Syracuse 93 North Carolina State 112 = -19
Syracuse 97 Pittsburgh 96 = +1
Syracuse 95 Clemson 97= -2
Syracuse 86 Miami 119 = -33
Syracuse 90 Florida State 108 = -18
Syracuse 120 Wake Forest 125 = -5
Syracuse 96 Louisville 100 = -4
Syracuse 77 Boston College 87 = -10
TOTAL: Syracuse 1177 Opponents 1210 = -33 We ‘won’ 4 of12 games

2018
Syracuse 109 Western Michigan 96 = +13
Syracuse 139 Wagner 65 = +74
Syracuse 113 Florida State 77 = +36
Syracuse 109 Connecticut 83 = +26
Syracuse 86 Clemson 102= -16
Syracuse 99 Pittsburgh 97 = +2
Syracuse 113 North Carolina 115 = -2
Syracuse 113 North Carolina State 96 = +17
Syracuse 117 Wake Forest 107 = +10
Syracuse 124 Louisville 83 = +41
Syracuse 86 Notre Dame 99 = -13
Syracuse 110 Boston College 96 = +14
Syracuse 116 West Virginia 79 +37
TOTAL: Syracuse 1434 Opponents 1195 = +239 We ‘won’ 10 of 13 games

2019
Syracuse 104 Liberty 84 = +20
Syracuse 82 Maryland 112 = -30
Syracuse 77 Clemson 113 = -36
Syracuse 113 Western Michigan 99 =+14
Syracuse 110 Holy Cross 67 = +43
Syracuse 78 North Carolina State 100 = -22
Syracuse 92 Pittsburgh 114 = -22
Syracuse 96 Florida State 115 = -19
Syracuse 76 Boston College 119 = -43
Syracuse 107 Duke 78 = +29
Syracuse 85 Louisville 104 = -19
Syracuse 118 Wake Forest 111 = +7
TOTAL: Syracuse 1138 Opponents 1216 = -78 We ‘won’ 5 of 12 games

2020
Syracuse 70 North Carolina 114 = -44
Syracuse 78 Pittsburgh 89 = -11
Syracuse 108 Georgia Tech 102 = +6
Syracuse 79 Duke 114 = -35
Syracuse 77 Liberty 93 = -16
Syracuse 72 Clemson 112 = -40
Syracuse 76 Wake Forest 99 = -23
Syracuse 68 Boston College 96 = -28
Syracuse 76 Louisville 81 = -5
Syracuse 76 North Carolina State 108
Syracuse 82 Notre Dame 100
TOTAL: Syracuse 862 Opponents 1108 = -248 We ‘won’ 1 of 11 games

2021
Syracuse 86 Ohio U. 63 = +23
Syracuse 64 Rutgers 101 = -37
Syracuse 103 Albany 70 = +33
TOTAL: Syracuse 253-234 = +19 We’ve won 2 of 3 games

Totals since 2016: Syracuse has won 5,939 plays, (48.7%) and 24 games, (38.1%). The opposition has won 6,245 plays and 39 games. They’ve obtained their goals on 326 more plays than we have in 63 games, an average of 5.2 plays a game.