Winning Plays: California

[SWC75]

This season I will once again be charting Syracuse’s games in terms of “winning plays”. I look at the results of each play and decide which team got the minimum they wanted out of the play. Rather than making instinctive judgments, I use a formula:

- On first down, the offensive team wants to get at least a third of the way to a new first down: they will have two more plays before they might have to surrender the ball and if they gain that same amount of yards on each of those two plays, they’ll get the first down. If they don’t make it a third of the way to a new first down, the defense won the play.
- On second down, the offense wants to get at least halfway to a new first down by the same logic.
- On third and fourth down, they want to get the first down.
- Penalties, if added onto a play by the referees, are added on to the results above. If the offense gains 5 yards on first down but there was holding and they lost yardage instead, the defense won the play. If a running back made a 25 yard run on first and ten and the holding was 20 yards downfield, turning it into a 5 yard gain, that’s still a win for the offense. If the defense is penalized and it’s tacked on, again the net result is what is evaluated. The penalties I’ve listed negated the play entirely and are a “loss” for the penalized team and thus a win for their opponent.
- If a penalty was not tacked onto a play, it’s a lost play for the team being penalized. I'll count them separate from the other plays from scrimmage because I don't know if the intended play before the penalty would have been a run or a pass - so I wouldn't know where to put it in the chart below.
- A turnover is, obviously, a win for the team that wound up with the ball.
- On a kick-off a touchback brings the ball out to the 25 yard line. Teams still seem to be trying to kick the ball into the end zone and avoid a runback if they can, so any kick-off that results in the receiving team starting between their goal line and their 25 is a win for the kicking team. Beyond that, the receiving team wins.
- On a punt, a touchback takes the ball out of the 20. So any punt that results in the other team taking over from their goal line to their 20 is a win for the punting team. If the next change in field position is at least 40 yards, the punting team has also won the play.
- A successful place kick is, obviously, a win for the kicking team.
- Any play that results in a touchdown is, obviously, a win for that team that scores it.
- A “victory play” where a team accepts a loss just to let the clock run out, is a win for the offensive team.

I will indicate in parenthesis how many yards there were to go to get a new first down, (if other than 10), unless it was for no gain or negative yardage. If it was a touchdown, (“TD)” a scramble/sack (“S”) a victory play (“V”) or involved a penalty (P). I’ll treat a scramble or a sack as a passing play as the Cuse.com play by play now tells you when it’s either of those two. 1R means first down running plays. 1P means first down passing plays, etc.

I have decided to list the “Big Plays” at the bottom of each team’s summary. A big play is a play from scrimmage of over 20 yards, (or 20+ yards lost), kickoff returns of +25 yards, punt returns of +20, blocked kicks, missed kicks, and takeovers on fumbles, interceptions and downs.

When Syracuse had the ball:

Drive Starts: SU 25, CA 40, SU 31, SU 25, SU 30, SU 26, SU 25, SU 25, SU 22, CA48 = 3210/10 = SU 32 with 679 yards to go, (87 less California)

KO: C 35, C32, C25, C 25, C 7, C7, C25, C 25, C 25
Total: Syracuse 6 California 2
P: 22 to CA 20, 41 to CA 33
Total: Syracuse 2 California 0
FG: Good from 24, Good from 42, Good from 43, Good from 32
Total: Syracuse 4 California 0
XP: Good, Good, Good
Total: Syracuse 3 California 0
Kicking plays total: Syracuse 15 California 2

1r: 13, 2, -1, 1, 4, 4, 1, 2, 6, 0, 9, 5, 7, 10, 2, 2, 6,, 2, 0, 5, -2v
Total: Syracuse 11 California 9
1p: 6, 15, -8, I, I, 26, 40, 4, 6TD, I, 6(15), I, 13, -2(s), 9
Total: Syracuse 8 California 6
First Down Total: Syracuse California
2r: 5(8), 30TD, 1TD, 2(1), 3(6), 4(6), 4(8), 0, -1v
Total: Syracuse 8 California 1
2p: 15(6), 8(9), 12(6), I, I, 10(8), 24, 11(9), I, 6(8), I, I, 11(10), I, I, 15, I
Total: Syracuse 10 California 9
Second Down Total: Syracuse 18 California 10
3r: 3(1), 9, 0, 5(27), 1v
Total: Syracuse 3 California 2
3p: 12(3), I, I, 4(6), 12(5), I, 4, 10(9), 4(4), 12(4), 14(8), I
Total: Syracuse 6 California 5
Third Down Total: Syracuse 9 California 7
4r: 1(1)
Total: Syracuse 1 California 0
4p: 4(2), 6(3), 20(2)
Total: Syracuse 3 California 0
Fourth Down Total: Syracuse 4 California 0

Total on running plays: Syracuse 23 California 12
Total on passing plays: Syracuse 27 California 20
Total on plays from scrimmage: Syracuse 50 California 32

Penalties not tacked on to plays: +5, -5, -5, -5 -15, -5 Syracuse 1 California 5

Game total when Syracuse had the ball: Syracuse 66 California 39

Big Plays: INT, INT, 30TD- run, 25-pass, 26-pass, 40-pass, 20-pass (7)

Comments: A dominant offensive performance. That’s what our offense is supposed to look like. I would liked to have had more than 6 points in the first quarter and in the second half.


When California had the ball:

Drive Starts: CA 35, CA 32, CA 25, CA 25, CA 7, CA 7, CA 25, CA 20, CA 33, CA 25 = 234/10 = CA 23 with 766 yards to go (87 more than Syracuse)

KO: SU 25, SU 25, SU 26, SU 25, Onside: No Good
Total: Syracuse 2 California 3
P: 41 to SU 30, 47 to SU 25, 49 to SU 22
Total: Syracuse 3 California 0
FG: No good from 48, Good from 44
Total: Syracuse 1 California 1
XP: Good, Good, Try for 2 - Good
Total: Syracuse 0 California 3
Kicking plays total: Syracuse 6 California 7

1r: 1, 0, -2, 3, 53, 1, 5TD
Total: Syracuse 6 California 2
1p: 5, 10, INT, I, -8(6), 0, 2(20), 13, 0, 7, 15, -4(s), 6, I, I, 17, I
Total: Syracuse 10 California 6
First Down Total: Syracuse 16 California 8
2r: 75TD, 4, 3, 2(3), 2(4), 2(11), 0, -2(s), 15
Total: Syracuse 4 California 5
2p: 1(4), INT, 24(9), 20(12), 13(8), I, I, 12(14), I
Total: Syracuse 5 California 4
Second Down Total: Syracuse 9 California 9
3r: 5(2), 15TD
Total: Syracuse 0 California 2
3p: 13(5), I, 5(5), 10(7), 5(18), 13, 11(5), I, I, -4(s), 16(16)
Total: Syracuse 5 California 6
Third Down Total: Syracuse 5 California 8
4r: None
Total: Syracuse 0 California 0
4p: None
Total: Syracuse 0 California 0
Fourth Down Total: Syracuse 0 California 0

Total on running plays: Syracuse 10 California 9
Total on passing plays: Syracuse 20 California 16
Total on plays from scrimmage: Syracuse 30 California 25

Penalties not tacked on to plays: -10, -10, +15, -21 Syracuse 3 California 1

Game total when California had the ball: Syracuse 39 California 33

Big Plays: 75TD, 24-pass, 20-pass, 53-run (4)

Overall Game Total: Syracuse 105 California 72

Comments: We were not as dominant on defense and a bit leaky in a couple of places but we still won more plays. When you control the other team, victory becomes likely.

This was a truly dominant performance by SU: 105-72 = +33. Our other impressive performances aren’t on that level: Georgia Tech was 90-87, UNLV 94-95, NC State 79-73 and Virginia Tech 92-91.
Comparable performances since the beginning of the Dino Babers Era:
2018 Syracuse 113 Florida State 77 = +36 We won 30-7
2018 Syracuse 116 West Virginia 79 = +37 We won 34-18
2019 Syracuse 107 Duke 78 = +29 We won 49-7
2021 Syracuse 103 Albany 69 = +34 We won 62-24
2022 Syracuse 96 Connecticut 59 = +37 We won 48-14
2023 Syracuse 109 Western Michigan 76 = +33 We won 48-7
The average score of these previous six games in this range was 45-13 (271-77). This one should never have come to an on-sides kick.

 

[SWC75]

TOTALS FOR THE YEAR

When SYRACUSE had the ball:

Drive Starts: 284/11 = S26/816, 237/9 = S26/663, 361/12 = S30/839, 524/14 = S37/876, 344/11 = S 31/756, 305/9 = S34/595, 322/13 = S25/978, 415/13 = S32/885, 321/10 = S32/679 TOTAL: 3,103/102 =S30 with 7,087 yards to go (175 less than the opposition).

KO: 7-0 + 5-1 + 4-0 + 6-1 + 6-1 + 4-1 + 3-0 + 5-1 + 4-2 + 6-2 = 50-9
P: 3-0 + 1-1+ 5-1 + 2-0 + 0-3 + 1-0 + 2-1 + 4-1 + 4-0 + 2-0 = 24-7
FG: 1-0 + 1-1 + 1-0 + 0-3 + 1-0 + 1-1 + 1-1 + 1-0 + 1-0 + 4-0 = 12-6
XP: 5-0 + 4-0 + 3-0 + 6-0 + 5-0 + 3-0 + 1-1 + 4-1 + 4-0 + 3-0 = 38-2
Kicking plays total: 16-0 + 11-3 + 13-1+ 14-4 + 12-4 + 9-2 + 7-3 + 14-3 + 13-2 + 15-2 = 124-24

1r: 7-10 + 5-8 + 5-5 + 13-8 + 9-9 + 8-12 + 4-6 + 10-9 + 7-8 + 11-9 = 79-84
1p: 8-6 + 14-7 + 7-11 + 11-11 + 10-9 + 9-4 + 6-21 + 7-7 + 14-9 + 8-6 = 94-91
First Down Total: 15-16 + 19-15 + 12-16 + 24-19 + 19-18 + 17-16 + 10-27 + 17-16 + 21-17 + 19-15 = 173-175
2r: 3-6 + 9-4 + 1-2 + 6-5 + 8-4 + 3-5 + 6-6 + 5-3 + 2-2 + 8-1 = 51-38
2p: 8-5 + 7-6 + 11-5 + 8-12 + 11-13 + 10-7 + 9-11 + 6-7 + 11-9 + 10-9 = 91-84
Second Down Total: 11-11 + 16-10 + 12-7 + 14-17 + 19-17 + 13-12 + 15-17 + 11-10 + 13-11 + 18-10 = 142-122
3r: 1-1 + 2-2 + 0-0 + 1-1 + 2-1 + 2-0 + 2-3 + 4-1 + 1-1 + 3-2 = 18-12
3p: 8-5 + 7-5 + 4-8 + 8-7 + 10-5 + 7-6 + 4-11 + 4-5 + 3-9 + 6-5 = 61-66
Third Down Total: 9-6 + 9-7 + 4-8 + 9-8 + 12-6 + 9-6 + 6-14 + 8-6 + 4-10 + 9-7 = 79-78
4r: 1-0 + 2-0 + 0-0 + 0-0 + 2-0 + 0-0 + 2-0 + 1-0 + 0-0 + 1-0 = 9-0
4p: 0-0 + 0-0 + 0-0 + 1-1 + 0-0 + 2-1 + 5-2 + 0-0 + 0-3 + 3-0 = 11-7
Fourth Down Total: 1-0 + 2-0 + 0-0 + 1-1 + 2-0 + 2-1 + 7-2 + 1-0 + 0-3 + 4-0 = 20-7

Total on running plays: 12-17 + 18-14 + 6-7 + 20-14 + 21-14 + 13-17 + 14-15 + 20-13 + 10-11 + 23-12 = 157-134
Total on passing plays: 24-16 + 28-18 + 22-24 + 28-31 + 31-27 + 28-18 + 24-45 + 17-19 + 28-30 + 27-20 = 257-248
Total on plays from scrimmage: 36-33 + 46-32 + 28-31 + 48-45 + 52-41 + 41-35 + 38-60 + 37-32 + 38-41+ 50-32 = 414-382

Penalties not tacked on to plays: 0-1 + 0-2 + 0-4 + 1-2 + 7-5 + 2-3 + 2-6 + 3-4 + 0-3 + 1-5 = 16-35

Game total when SYRACUSE had the ball: 52-34 + 57-37 + 41-36 + 63-51 + 71-50 + 52-40 + 47-69 + 54-39 + 51-46 + 66-39 = 554-441

Big plays: 6 + 8 + 5 + 8 + 6 + 5 + 6 +7 + 7 = 58

Comments: You wouldn’t have guessed it but our running game and our passing game both have positive numbers. In fact, our runs are +23, (157-134) and our passes just +9, (257-248). Passes have more potential but also more risk. Also, we aren’t getting big plays on defense and special teams due to lack of pressure. We are now under .500 on third down but still 20-7 on fourth down.


When OPPONENT had the ball:

Drive Starts: 241/11 = O22/859, 279/10 = O28/721, 310/12 = O26/890, 328/14 = O23/1,072, 401/11 = O36/699 183/8 = O23/617, 321/10 = O32/679, 441/14 = O31.5/959, 234/10 = O23/766 TOTAL= 2,738/100 = O27 with 7,262 yards to go, (175 more than SU ).

KO: 0-6 + 0-5 + 0-5 + 2-1 + 0-7 + 1-3 + 1-7 + 0-6 + 0-6 + 2-3 = 6-49
P: 0-3 + 1-3 + 0-3 + 6-4 + 0-2 + 1-0 + 0-5 + 2-3 + 3-1 + 3-0 = 16-24
FG: 0-3 + 1-0 + 0-4 + 0-0 + 0-2 + 1-1 + 0-2 + 0-1 + 1-0 + 1-1 = 4-14
XP: 0-2 + 0-4 + 0-2 + 0-2 + 0-5 + 0-2 + 0-5 + 0-3 + 0-5 + 0-3 = 0-33
Kicking plays total: 0-14 + 2-12 + 0-14 + 8-7 + 0-16 + 3-6 + 1-19 + 2-13 + 4-12 + 6-7 = 26-120

1r: 8-13 + 6-4 + 8-9 + 11-1 + 7-8 + 9-4 + 4-6 + 11-8 + 11-15 + 6-2 = 81-70
1p: 7-8 + 7-9 + 8-7 + 2-5 + 2-9 + 5-9 + 4-6 + 8-5 + 0-4 + 10-6 = 53-68
First Down Total: 15-21 + 13-13 + 16-16 + 13-6 + 9-17 + 14-13 + 8-12 + 19-13 + 11-19 + 16-8 = 134-138
2r: 1-9 + 4-7 + 5-5 + 1-2 + 5-1 + 1-5 + 3-3 + 4-10 + 6-10 + 4-5 = 34-57
2p: 5-6 + 4-8 + 6-6 + 12-2 + 4-7 + 2-4 + 2-6 + 3-8 + 3-1 + 5-4 = 46-52
Second Down Total: 6-15 + 8-15 + 11-11 + 13-4 + 9-8 + 3-9 + 5-9 + 7-18 + 9-11 + 9-9 = 80-109
3r: 1-2 + 1-4 + 2-1 + 3-1 + 1-0 + 0-0 + 3-0 + 3-4 + 3-3 + 0-2 = 17-17
3p: 5-3 + 5-4 + 6-4 + 9-1 + 3-3 + 4-1 + 3-2 + 3-1 + 6-2 + 5-6 = 49-27
Third Down Total: 6-5 + 6-8 + 8-5 + 12-2 + 4-3 + 4-1 + 6-2 + 6-5 + 9-5 + 5-8 = 66-44
4r: 0-0 + 1-0 + 0-1 + 1-0 + 0-0 + 0-0 + 0-0 + 0-0 + 0-1 + 0-0 = 2-2
4p: 0-1 + 0-1 + 0-1 + 0-0 + 0-0 + 0-1 + 0-0 + 0-0 + 0-0 + 0-0 = 0-4
Fourth Down Total: 0-1 + 1-1 + 0-2 + 1-0 + 0-0 + 0-1 + 0-0 + 0-0 + 0-1 + 0-0 = 2-6

Total on running plays: 10-24 + 12-15 + 15-16 + 16-4 + 13-9 + 10-9 + 10-9 + 18-22 + 20-29 + 10-9 = 134-146
Total on passing plays: 17-18 + 16-22 + 20-18 + 23-8 + 9-19 + 11-15 + 9-14 + 14-14 + 9-7 + 20-16 = 148-151
Total on plays from scrimmage: 27-42 + 28-37 + 35-34 + 39-12 + 22-28 + 21-24 +19-23 + 32-36 + 29-36 + 30-25 = 282-297

Penalties not tacked on to plays: 1-3 + 3-1 + 1-7 + 2-1+ 1-1 + 3-5 + 1-1 + 4-3 + 1-1 + 3-1 = 20-24

Game total when OPPONENT had the ball: 28-59 + 33-50 + 36-55 + 49-20 + 23-45 + 27-35 + 21-43 + 38-52 + 34-49 + 39-33 = 328-441

Big Plays: 7 + 9 + 4 + 5 + 5 + 9 + 6 + 4 = 49

Overall Game Total: 80-93 + 90-87 + 77-91 + 112-71 + 94-95+ 79-75 + 68-112 + 92-91 + 85-95 +105-72 = 882-882

Comments: That’s right, you’ve seen exactly as man plays go bad for SU this year as went well. Yet we are 7-3. The big thing: We are 99-85 on third and fourth down when we have the ball and 68-50 when the other team has the ball. We keep the ball.



HISTORICAL WINNING PLAYS – The Fran Brown Era

2024
Syracuse 80 Ohio University 93 = -13
Syracuse 90 Georgia Tech 87 = +3
Syracuse 77 Stanford 91 = -14
Syracuse 112 Holy Cross 71 = +41
Syracuse 94 Nevada-Las Vegas 95 = -1
Syracuse 79 North Carolina State 75 = +4
Syracuse 68 Pittsburgh 112 = -44
Syracuse 92 Virginia Tech 91 = +1
Syracuse 85 Boston College 95 = -10
Syracuse 105 California 72 = +33
TOTAL: Syracuse: 882 Opponents 882 = 0 We’ve won 5 of 10 games, (50.0%) per ‘winning plays’ (Dino won 39.8%). We have won 50.0% of the 1,764 plays, (Dino Babers won 48.8%). Their team has achieved their goals on the same number of plays that we have.

 

[upperdeck]

This team has turned too many 17-21 pt wins into just so-so 7ish type ones. Thats where the cleanup begins