Winning Plays - Clemson

[SWC75]

This season I will once again be charting Syracuse’s games in terms of “winning plays”. I look at the results of each play and decide which team got the minimum they wanted out of the play. Rather than making instinctive judgments, I use a formula:
- On first down, the offensive team wants to get at least a third of the way to a new first down: they will have two more games before they might have to surrender the ball and if they gain that same amount of yards on each of those two plays, they’ll get the first down. If they don’t make it a third of the way to a new first down, the defense won the play.
- On second down, the offense wants to get halfway to a new first down by the same logic.
- On third and fourth down, they want to get the new first down.
- Penalties, if added onto a play by the referees, are added on to the results above. If the offense gains 5 yards on first down but there was holding and they lost yardage instead, the defense won the play. If a running back made a 20 yard run on first and ten and the holding was 15 yards downfield, turning it into a 5 yard gain, that’s still a win for the offense. If the defense is penalized and it’s tacked on, again the net result is what is evaluated.
- If a penalty was not tacked onto a play, it’s a lost play for the team being penalized. I'll count them separate from the other plays from scrimmage because I don't know if the intended play before the penalty would have been a run or a pass - so i wouldn't know where to put it in the chart below.
- A turnover is, obviously, a win for the team that wound up with the ball.
- On a kick-off a touchback brings the ball out to the 25 yard line. Teams still seem to be trying to kick the ball into the end zone and avoid a runback if they can, so any kick-off that results in the receiving team starting between their goal line and their 25 is a win for the kicking team.
- On a punt, a touchback takes the ball out of the 20. So any punt that results in the other team taking over from their goal line to their 20 is a win for the punting team. If the next change in field position is at least 40 yards, the punting tam has also won the play.
- A successful place kick is, obviously a win for the kicking team.
- Any play that results in a touchdown is, obviously, a win for that team that scores it.
- A “victory play” where a team accepts a loss just to let the clock run out, is a win for the offensive team.

I will indicate in parenthesis how many yards there were to go to get a new first down, (if other than 10), unless it was for no gain or negative yardage. If it was a touchdown, (“TD)” a sack (“S”) a victory play (“V”) or involved a penalty (P). I’m undecided about whether to count a scramble as a running play or passing play. For now, I’ll count it as a running play and put an ‘S’ next to it in case I change my mind. Thus an S in running plays is a scramble, an S in passing plays a sack. 1R means first down running plays. 1P means first down passing plays, etc.

When SYRACUSE had the ball:

KO: SU 44
Total: Syracuse 0 Clemson 1
P: 20 to SU41, 37 to CL5, 48 to CL11, 43 to CL22, 36 to CL16, 35 to CL40, 35 to CL33, 45 to CL32
Total: Syracuse 5 Clemson 3
FG: No Good from 30
Total: Syracuse 0 Clemson 1
XP: none
Total: Syracuse 0 Clemson 0
Kicking plays total: Syracuse 5 Clemson 5

1r: -10(P), 0, 6, 1, 6, 3, 1, 4, 49, 4, 2, 4, -4, -1, -2
Total: Syracuse 6 Clemson 9
1p: I, I, Interception, 12, -5(P), I, I, 3, I, 4, I, 3, 20, Interception(TD)
Total: Syracuse 3 Clemson 11
First Down Total: Syracuse 9 Clemson 20
2r: 3, 1(4), 3(4), 3, 2, -3, 2(11), 10(6), -4
Total: Syracuse 2 Clemson 7
2p: 4, 9(25), 18(9), -2, Interception, 5(7), I, 6(6), 6(17), 8(6), 8(14), I
Total: Syracuse 5 Clemson 7
Second Down Total: Syracuse 7 Clemson 14
3r: 13(13), 8(9)
Total: Syracuse 1 Clemson 1
3p: -5(S), 9(7), 7(16), 21(P,3), I, 11(1), -7(S), 3(2), 4, I, 4, I, I
Total: Syracuse 4 Clemson 9
Third Down Total: Syracuse 5 Clemson 10
4r: 2(1)
Total: Syracuse 1 Clemson 0
4p: 7(9)
Total: Syracuse 0 Clemson 1
Fourth Down Total: Syracuse 1 Clemson 1

Total on running plays: Syracuse 10 Clemson 17
Total on passing plays: Syracuse 12 Clemson 28
Total on plays from scrimmage: Syracuse 22 Clemson 45

Penalties not tacked on to plays: -5, -5, -5, -5, -5 Syracuse 0 Clemson 5

Game total when SYRACUSE had the ball: Syracuse 27 Clemson 55

Comments: When the other team kicks off 10 times and you kick off once- an onsides-attempt that doesn’t work, you know you’ve had a bad day. Other stats fell in line with that. Usually a team will dominate it’s kicking plays: When we kicked the results were 5-5. When they kicked it was 5-18. First down passes are usually pretty successful but we were 3-11 on those. The three turnovers all produced scores for Clemson, as did the unsuccessful on-sides kick.


When CLEMSON had the ball:

KO: SU 22, SU 39, SU 11, SU 25, CL 32, SU 20, SU 20, SU 19, SU 17, SU 19
Total: Syracuse 2 Clemson 8
P: 28 to SU26, 40 to SU 21, 46 to SU 25
Total: Syracuse 1 Clemson 2
FG: Good from 22, No good from 40, Good from 46
Total: Syracuse1 Clemson 2
XP: Good, No Good, Good, Good, Good, Good, Good
Total: Syracuse 1 Clemson 6
Kicking plays total: Syracuse 5 Clemson 18

1r: 5, 10, 2(9), 10, 4(5), 30, 0, 4, 8, 14, 7, 1, 1, 0, 5, 0, 5, 2, 0, 6, 1, 5, 7, 3, 5, 2, 2
Total: Syracuse 12 Clemson 15
1p: 11, -10(P), -10, 65TD, I, 14, I, I, 24, I, I, 8, I, I
Total: Syracuse 9 Clemson 5
First Down Total: Syracuse 21 Clemson 20
2r: 2(5), 2(7), 6(30), 1TD, 13, 3(2), 6(3), 0, 5TD, 3, -1, 4(3), 2(5)
Total: Syracuse 7 Clemson 6
2p: -6, 7(9), 18(9), 6, 5, 31, I, 6(5), 6, I, 12(2), I, I, 9(4), I, 18(7), 3, 10(8)
Total: Syracuse 7 Clemson 11
Second Down Total: Syracuse 14 Clemson 17
3r: 1(3), 13, 1(8), 1(5), -5, -7
Total: Syracuse 5 Clemson 1
3p: I, 19(24), 8(2), 23(12), 11(2), I, 17(4), 29, 18TD
Total: Syracuse 2 Clemson 7
Third Down Total: Syracuse 7 Clemson 8
4r: 3(2)
Total: Syracuse 0 Clemson 1
4p: 24(4)
Total: Syracuse 0 Clemson 1
Fourth Down Total: Syracuse 0 Clemson 2

Total on running plays: Syracuse 24 Clemson 23
Total on passing plays: Syracuse 18 Clemson 24
Total on plays from scrimmage: Syracuse 42 Clemson 47

Penalties not tacked on to plays: none Syracuse 0 Clemson 0

Game total when CLEMSON had the ball: Syracuse 47 Clemson 65

Overall Game Total: Syracuse 74 Clemson 120

Comments: Our defense, (42-47 from scrimmage) was actually better than our offense, (22-45). We had 6 tackles for a loss, (Clemson, who has led the country in this stat four 3eyars in a row, had 7). But we forced no turnovers and just couldn’t get game-changing plays. Some comparisons: When we lost 0-56 to Georgia Tech back in 2013, we lost the plays 46-113, (-67). When we lost to Florida State 3-59 we lsot the plays 55-104, (-49). This game was 74-120 (-46). When Clemson blew us out in the Dome that year, the score was 14-49 and the plays 64-136 (-72), worse than any of those. When we lost 6-16 to Clemson in 2014, the plays were 75-102 (-27) and in 2015 it was 27-37 and 83-105 (-22).

 

[SWC75]

GAME BY GAME and TOTALS FOR THE YEAR

When SYRACUSE had the ball:

KO: 5-3, 3-1, 3-2, 3-2, 1-5, 2-0, 4-1, 2-3, 0-1 = 23-18
P: 3-0, 8-4, 3-2, 2-3, 6-3, 6-4, 3-0, 3-1, 5-3 = 39-20
FG: 4-0, 0-1, 2-0, 1-2, 0-1, 0-0, 1-2, 0-1, 0-1 = 8-8
XP: 3-0, 4-0, 2-0, 4-0, 3-2, 1-0, 4-0, 4-0, 0-0 = 25-2
Kicking plays total: 15-3, 15-6, 10-4, 10-7, 10-11, 9-4, 12-3, 9-5, 5-5 = 95-48

1r: 5-10, 6-12, 11-14, 4-11, 6-8, 4-11, 9-10, 6-11, 6-9 = 57-96
1p: 12-7, 8-12, 7-10, 9-5, 14-10, 6-7, 9-14, 13-6, 3-11 = 81-82
First Down Total: 17-17, 14-24, 18-24, 13-16, 20-18, 10-18, 18-24, 19-17, 9-20 = 138-178
2r: 3-8, 5-7, 9-9, 1-4, 8-6, 5-9, 12-6, 5-5, 2-7 = 50-61
2p: 8-7, 8-13, 8-5, 9-8, 9-7, 3-4, 6-8, 13-4, 5-7 = 69-63
Second Down Total: 11-15, 13-20, 17-14, 10-12, 17-13, 8-13, 18-14, 18-9, 7-14 = 119-124
3r: 3-3, 6-1, 2-6, 3-2, 2-5, 3-4, 2-2, 1-3, 1-1 = 23-27
3p: 6-6, 6-9, 13-4, 6-4, 1-8, 2-7, 8-9, 5-5, 4-9 = 51-61
Third Down Total: 9-9, 12-10, 15-10, 9-6, 3-13, 5-11, 10-11, 6-8, 5-10 = 74-88
4r: 1-0, 0-0, 1-1, 0-0, 1-0, 0-0, 0-1, 0-0, 1-0 = 4-2
4p: 2-0, 0-1, 1-2, 0-0, 0-0, 1-0, 4-0, 1-0, 0-1 = 9-4
Fourth Down Total: 3-0, 0-1, 2-3, 0-0, 1-0, 1-0, 4-1, 1-0, 1-1 =13-6

Total on running plays: 12-21, 17-20, 23-30, 8-17, 17-19, 12-24, 23-19, 12-19, 10-17 = 134-186
Total on passing plays: 28-20, 22-35, 29-21, 24-17, 24-25, 12-18, 27-31, 32-15, 12-28 = 210-210
Total on plays from scrimmage: 40-41, 39-55, 52-51, 32-34, 41-44, 24-42, 50-50, 44-34, 22-45 = 344-396

Penalties not tacked on to plays: 0-4, 3-3, 2-7, 0-2, 2-4, 0-3, 3-5, 1-8, 0-5 = 11-41

Game total when SYRACUSE had the ball: 55-48, 57-64, 64-62, 42-43, 53-59, 33-49, 65-58, 54-47, 27-55 = -450-485

Comment: Our high-powered offense runs a lot of plays but is so far winning only 46% of the plays from scrimmage. First down runs are the biggest problem, (57-96). We had been doing well on third down through four games (45-35) but are (29-53) since, mostly due to a poor record on third down passes (20-38). Strangely we are doing fairly well on third and fourth down runs, (26-29). Our overall fourth down record is good (13-6), suggesting we might try it more often.

When OPPONENT had the ball:

KO: 0-2, 2-8, 2-6, 3-2, 2-7, 1-5, 0-4, 0-3, 2-8 = 12-45
P: 4-7, 1-5, 1-5, 1-4, 4-1, 2-5, 1-3, 2-4, 1-2 = 17-36
FG: 0-0, 1-2, 0-1, 0-1, 1-2, 0-0, 1-1, 0-2, 1-2 = 4-11
XP: 0-1, 0-8, 0-6, 0-3, 0-6, 0-4, 1-1, 0-2, 1-6 = 2-37
Kicking plays total: 4-10, 4-23, 3-18, 4-10, 7-16, 3-14, 3-9, 2-11, 5-18 = 35-129

1r: 10-4, 6-20, 4-12, 9-11, 14-5, 9-10, 10-9, 9-9, 12-15 = 83-95
1p: 4-4, 8-9, 7-8, 9-5, 7-13, 5-8, 9-4, 5-3, 9-5 = 63-59
First Down Total: 14-8, 14-29, 11-20, 18-16, 21-18, 14-18, 19-13, 14-12, 21-20 = 146-154
2r: 9-3, 4-6, 4-8, 5-8, 2-8, 9-8, 7-7, 8-7, 7-6 = 55-61
2p: 6-0, 8-4, 4-2, 8-9, 5-6, 3-2, 1-10, 4-1, 7-11 = 46-45
Second Down Total: 15-3, 12-10, 8-10, 13-17, 7-14, 12-10, 8-17, 12-8, 14-17 = 101-106
3r: 0-2, 1-3, 1-2, 4-2, 2-1, 6-5, 1-3, 2-3, 5-1 = 22-22
3p: 11-3, 8-3, 7-2, 8-7, 6-1, 3-4, 5-3, 7-2, 2-7 = 57-32
Third Down Total: 11-5, 9-6, 8-4, 12-9, 8-2, 9-9, 6-6, 9-5, 7-8 = 79-54
4r: 0-0, 0-0, 0-1, 1-2, 0-0, 1-0, 1-0, 0-0, 0-1 = 3-4
4p: 0-0, 0-0, 0-0, 1-2, 1-0, 0-0, 0-0, 1-0, 0-1 = 3-3
Fourth Down Total: 0-0, 0-0, 0-1, 2-4, 1-0, 1-0, 1-0, 1-0, 0-2 = 6-7

Total on running plays: 19-9, 11-29, 9-23, 19-23, 18-14, 25-23, 19-19, 19-19, 24-23 = 163-182
Total on passing plays: 21-7, 24-16, 18-12, 26-23, 19-20, 11-14, 15-17, 17-6, 18-24 = 169-139
Total on plays from scrimmage: 40-16, 35-45, 27-35, 45-46, 37-34, 36-37, 34-36, 36-25, 42-47 = 332-321

Penalties not tacked on to plays: 2-0, 3-0, 1-1, 0-0, 1-2, 0-1, 1-1, 1-1, 0-0 = 9-6

Game total when OPPONENT had the ball: 46-26, 42-68, 31-54, 49-56, 45-52, 39-52, 38-46, 39-37, 47-65 = 376-456

Overall Game Total: 101-74, 99-132, 95-116, 91-99, 98-111, 72-101, 103-104, 93-84, 74-120 = 826-941

Comment: We are +11 on defensive plays from scrimmage, (332-321) and -52 (344-396) on offensive plays from scrimmage. It’s mostly the big plays from scrimmage and the special teams breakdowns that have hurt us. We are 12-45 on opponent’s kick-offs: they are 18-23 when we kick off. Ironically, considering our obvious problems defending passes we are excellent against third down passes (57-32).

 

[SWC75]

HISTORICAL WINNING PLAYS
(Game totals only- games we ‘won’ are in bold, games tied in italics.)

2011
Syracuse 101 Wake Forest 87
Syracuse 92 Rhode Island 65
Syracuse 75 USC 90
Syracuse 96 Toledo 88
Syracuse 103 Rutgers 99
Syracuse 79 Tulane 99
Syracuse 90 West Virginia 84
Syracuse 74 Louisville 83
Syracuse 84 Connecticut 86
Syracuse 92 South Florida 106
Syracuse 83 Cincinnati 104
Syracuse 87 Pittsburgh 93
TOTAL: Syracuse 1,056 Opponents 1,117 We 'won' 4 of 12 games.

2012
Syracuse 105 Northwestern 116
Syracuse 92 USC 98
Syracuse 93 Stony Brook 82
Syracuse 82 Minnesota 95
Syracuse 85 Pittsburgh 76
Syracuse 93 Rutgers 73
Syracuse 103 Connecticut 70
Syracuse 115 South Florida 92
Syracuse 96 Cincinnati 122
Syracuse 103 Louisville 86
Syracuse 92 Missouri 98
Syracuse 98 Temple 81
Syracuse 105 West Virginia 82
TOTAL: Syracuse 1,262 Opponents 1,171 We 'won' 8 of 13 games.

2013
Syracuse 75 Penn State 113
Syracuse 92 Northwestern 114
Syracuse 115 Wagner 52
Syracuse 107 Tulane 76
Syracuse 64 Clemson 136
Syracuse 111 N C State 85
Syracuse 46 Georgia Tech 113
Syracuse 108 Wake Forest 81
Syracuse 92 Maryland 88
Syracuse 55 Florida State 104
Syracuse 80 Pittsburgh 96
Syracuse 100 Boston College 87
Syracuse 99 Minnesota 79
TOTAL: Syracuse 1,144 Opponents 1,224 We 'won' 7 of 13 games.

2014
Syracuse 91 Villanova 103
Syracuse 99 Central Michigan 76
Syracuse 91 Maryland 91
Syracuse 71 Notre Dame 114
Syracuse 71 Louisville 100
Syracuse 80 Florida State 101
Syracuse 86 Wake Forest 77
Syracuse 75 Clemson 102
Syracuse 92 N C State 101
Syracuse 78 Duke 98
Syracuse 46 Pittsburgh 114
Syracuse 72 Boston College 78
TOTAL: Syracuse 952 Opponents 1,155 We 'won' 2 of 12 games, with one even.

2015
Syracuse 96 Rhode Island 56
Syracuse 83 Wake Forest 83
Syracuse 84 Central Michigan 91
Syracuse 84 Louisiana State 89
Syracuse 80 South Florida 93
Syracuse 86 Virginia 97
Syracuse 70 Pittsburgh 89
Syracuse 84 Florida State 100
Syracuse 74 Louisville 110
Syracuse 83 Clemson 105
Syracuse 78 North Carolina State 100
Syracuse 89 Boston College 78
TOTAL: Syracuse 991 Opponents 1091 We 'won' 2 of 12 games with one even.

2016
Syracuse 101 Colgate 74
Syracuse 99 Louisville 132
Syracuse 95 South Florida 116
Syracuse 91 Connecticut 99
Syracuse 98 Notre Dame 111
Syracuse 72 Wake Forest 101
Syracuse 103 Virginia Tech 104
Syracuse 93 Boston College 84
Syracuse 74 Clemson 120
TOTAL: Syracuse 826 Opponent 941 We've 'won' 2 of 9 games.

Totals since 2011: Syracuse has won 6,525 plays, (48.2%) and 26 games, (37.7%). The opposition has won 7,021 plays and 43 games with 2 games even.

 

[kcsu]

You are a machine! Simply amazing. Thank you for all of the time and effort. I look forward to all of your post.