Winning Plays- Clemson | Syracusefan.com

Winning Plays- Clemson

SWC75

Bored Historian
Joined
Aug 26, 2011
Messages
32,278
Like
62,396
This season I will once again be charting Syracuse’s games in terms of “winning plays”. I look at the results of each play and decide which team got the minimum they wanted out of the play. Rather than making instinctive judgments, I use a formula:

- On first down, the offensive team wants to get at least a third of the way to a new first down: they will have two more plays before they might have to surrender the ball and if they gain that same amount of yards on each of those two plays, they’ll get the first down. If they don’t make it a third of the way to a new first down, the defense won the play.
- On second down, the offense wants to get at least halfway to a new first down by the same logic.
- On third and fourth down, they want to get the first down.
- Penalties, if added onto a play by the referees, are added on to the results above. If the offense gains 5 yards on first down but there was holding and they lost yardage instead, the defense won the play. If a running back made a 20 yard run on first and ten and the holding was 15 yards downfield, turning it into a 5 yard gain, that’s still a win for the offense. If the defense is penalized and it’s tacked on, again the net result is what is evaluated. The penalties I’ve listed negated the play entirely and are a “loss” for the penalized team and thus a win for their opponent. .
- If a penalty was not tacked onto a play, it’s a lost play for the team being penalized. I'll count them separate from the other plays from scrimmage because I don't know if the intended play before the penalty would have been a run or a pass - so i wouldn't know where to put it in the chart below.
- A turnover is, obviously, a win for the team that wound up with the ball.
- On a kick-off a touchback brings the ball out to the 25 yard line. Teams still seem to be trying to kick the ball into the end zone and avoid a runback if they can, so any kick-off that results in the receiving team starting between their goal line and their 25 is a win for the kicking team. Beyond that, the receiving team wins.
- On a punt, a touchback takes the ball out of the 20. So any punt that results in the other team taking over from their goal line to their 20 is a win for the punting team. If the next change in field position is at least 40 yards, the punting tam has also won the play.
- A successful place kick is, obviously, a win for the kicking team.
- Any play that results in a touchdown is, obviously, a win for that team that scores it.
- A “victory play” where a team accepts a loss just to let the clock run out, is a win for the offensive team.

I will indicate in parenthesis how many yards there were to go to get a new first down, (if other than 10), unless it was for no gain or negative yardage. If it was a touchdown, (“TD)” a scramble/sack (“S”) a victory play (“V”) or involved a penalty (P). I’ll treat a scramble or a sack as a passing play as the Cuse.com play by play now tells you when it’s either of those two. 1R means first down running plays. 1P means first down passing plays, etc.

Note: I us the play by play from Cuse.com which did not design ate scrambles for the North Carolina or Pittsburgh games so those plays were recorded here as runs since I couldn’t tell if they were planned QB runs or not. (ESPN didn’t note scrambles, either)

When SYRACUSE had the ball:

KO: SU47, CL25, CL25, CL24
Total: Syracuse 3 Clemson 1
P: 37 to CL36, 37 to CL23, 41 to CL12, 33 to CL12, 38 to CL28, 56 to CL3, 40 to CL23
Total: Syracuse 4 Clemson 3
FG: none
Total: Syracuse 0 Clemson 0
XP: Good, Good, Good
Total: Syracuse 3 Clemson 0
Kicking plays total: Syracuse 10 Clemson 4

1r: 0, 2, 2, 1, 4, 7TD, 21, 6, 12, 7(15), 7, 2, -1, 3, 0, 2, 2, 5
Total: Syracuse 8 Clemson 10
1p: I, I, I, 83TD, Interception, Interception
Total: Syracuse 1 Clemson 6
First Down Total: Syracuse 9 Clemson 16
2r: 2, 8(5), 3, -1, -1, 3, 5(8), 0
Total: Syracuse 2 Clemson 6
2p: Interception, 13(12), I, 10(9), I, I, 13(8), I, FumbleTD(s), -1(s), 10(5)
Total: Syracuse 4 Clemson 7
Second Down Total: Syracuse 6 Clemson 13
3r: 61(5), 4(3), 0
Total: Syracuse 2 Clemson 1
3p: I, 7(8), I, 15(12), I, I, 10(11), 7(4), 7(8), I
Total: Syracuse 2 Clemson 8
Third Down Total: Syracuse 4 Clemson 9
4r: -2
Total: Syracuse 0 Clemson 1
4p: none
Total: Syracuse 0 Clemson 0
Fourth Down Total: Syracuse 0 Clemson 1

Total on running plays: Syracuse 12 Clemson 18
Total on passing plays: Syracuse 7 Clemson 21
Total on plays from scrimmage: Syracuse 19 Clemson 39

Penalties not tacked on to plays: -5, -5, -5, +5, -5 Syracuse 1 Clemson 4

Game total when SYRACUSE had the ball: Syracuse 30 Clemson 47


When CLEMSON had the ball:

KO: SU25, SU25, SU25, SU25, SU25, SU25SU25
Total: Syracuse 0 Clemson 7
P: 44 to SU 20, Blocked, 51 to SU 4, 44 to SU 31, 51 to SU 8
Total: Syracuse 0 Clemson 4
FG: Good from 24, No Good from 37, Good from 36.
Total: Syracuse Clemson
XP: Good, Good, Good, Good, Try- NG, Good
Total: Syracuse 1 Clemson 5
Kicking plays total: Syracuse 2 Clemson 18

1r: -7, 8, 25TD, 4, 5, 3, 8, 1, 4, 9, 1, -13 (bad snap – I don’t know if it was a run or a pass but they never attempted a pass so I put it here), 9TD, 0, 5, 4, 4
Total: Syracuse 6 Clemson 11
1p: 10, 10, I, I, 5, I, 8, I, I, Interception-TD, 8, 8, 3, 7, I, I, 18, 23, 23P, 12, 11
Total: Syracuse 9 Clemson 12
First Down Total: Syracuse 15 Clemson 23
2r: 2, 0, 6,(17), 8(5), 2(5), 3(7), 1(2), 3(7), 6(1), -5, 3(9), 293), 6(5), 6(6)
Total: Syracuse 8 Clemson 6
2p: I, I, 21(6), 8(7), 14, 20, 8(9), 17TD, 5(2), 1(2), 5(3), I, 9(23), I
Total: Syracuse 5 Clemson 9
Second Down Total: Syracuse 13 Clemson 15
3r: 4(1), 10(11), 11(1), 5(4), 1TD
Total: Syracuse 0 Clemson 5
3p: 25TD, I, 7(11), 20(2), I, I, I, 12(15),-2s, 7(6), I, I
Total: Syracuse 9 Clemson 3
Third Down Total: Syracuse 9 Clemson 8
4r: 6(3)
Total: Syracuse 0 Clemson 1
4p: none
Total: Syracuse 0 Clemson 0
Fourth Down Total: Syracuse 0 Clemson 1

Total on running plays: Syracuse 14 Clemson 23
Total on passing plays: Syracuse 23 Clemson 24
Total on plays from scrimmage: Syracuse 37 Clemson 47

Penalties not tacked on to plays: -10, -5, -5 Syracuse 3 Clemson 0

Game total when CLEMSON had the ball: Syracuse 42 Clemson 65

Overall Game Total: Syracuse 72 Clemson 112


Comments: The line for our first down passes illustrates what it’s like when SU plays Clemson:
I, I, I, 83TD, Interception, Interception
We can’t compete with the Tigers on a play-to-paly basis so we have to make big plays. This game was 69-115 in ‘winning plays’ and yet we had a chance to win it because of a blocked punt, a pick 6, an 83 yard bomb and a 61 yard end around. Unfortunately we negated that with three interceptions, one in the end zone, and a scoop and score so we wound up losing by 26 points anyway. That’s why I think we might have won this game with Tommy DeVito, who was good at avoiding turnovers.

We usually have an advantage in the kicking game but Nolan Cooney was a bit off, except for his 56 yarder to the Clemson 3, (strangely the play most argued about: people thought that Dino should have gone for it in his own territory midway through the third quarter in a one possession game). Will Spiers, when his kick wasn’t blocked averaged a net 47.5 yards on his punts and B.T. Potter put six of seven kickoffs into the end zone. The other was caught on the 1 and returned to the SU25, which was the same result. And Andre Szmyt, while excellent, has been mostly a spectator this season. Potter scored 11 points for Clemson while Szmyt got 3 for Syracuse. We were 10-4 in the kicking game, the Tigers 18-2.
Our 15 drives averaged starting from our 26 with a total of 1,105 yards to the Clemson goal line. Their 15 drives started from their 28 with a total of 1,073 yards to get to our goal line. That’s 32 yards of extra offense for Clemson who did not need it. Our normal advent age in field position was absent from this game.

In terms of winning plays, this game was similar to some recent games:
2019 Syracuse 77 Clemson 113 = -36 We lost 6-41
2019 Syracuse 76 Boston College 119 = -43 We lost 27-58
2020 Syracuse 70 North Carolina 114 = -44 We lost 6-31
2020 Syracuse 72 Clemson 112 = -40 We lost 21-47
 
TOTALS FOR THE YEAR

When SYRACUSE had the ball:

KO: 1-1, 1-1, 7-0, 6-0, 3-1, 3-1 = 21-4
P: 5-4, 4-2, 6-2, 4-3, 6-0, 4-3 = 29-14
FG: 2-1, 1-0, 1-1, 1-0, 3-0, 0-0 = 8-2
XP: 0-0, 1-0, 4-1, 3-0, 0-0, 3-0 = 11-1
Kicking plays total: 8-6, 7-3, 18-4, 14-3, 12-1, 10-4 =69-21

1r: 4-10, 5-7, 6-9, 4-3, 7-6, 8-10 = 34-45
1p: 6-10, 2-6, 7-4, 5-10, 6-8, 1-6 = 27-44
First Down Total: 10-20, 7-13, 13-13, 9-13, 13-14, 9-16 = 61-89
2r: 3-5, 8-5, 4-8, 1-3, 8-1, 2-6 = 26-28
2p: 5-11, 0-7, 2-6, 6-7, 4-8, 4-7 = 21-46
Second Down Total: 8-16, 8-12, 6-14, 7-10, 12-9, 6-13 = 47-74
3r: 2-3, 0-4, 3-3, 1-2, 1-0, 2-1 = 9-13
3p: 2-11, 2-8, 2-8, 1-7, 3-10, 2-8 = 12-52
Third Down Total: 4-14, 2-12, 5-11, 2-9, 4-10, 4-9 = 21-65
4r: 0-1, 0-0, 1-2, 0-1, 0-1, 0-1 = 1-6
4p: 0-0, 0-1, 0-0, 0-0, 2-1, 0-0 = 2-2
Fourth Down Total: 0-1, 0-1, 1-2, 0-1, 2-2, 0-1 = 3-8

Total on running plays: 9-19, 13-16, 14-22, 6-9, 16-8, 12-18 = 70-92
Total on passing plays: 13-32, 4-22, 11-18, 12-24, 15-27, 7-21 = 62-144
Total on plays from scrimmage: 22-51, 17-38, 25-40, 18-33, 31-35, 19-39 = 132-236

Penalties not tacked on to plays: 2-3, 2-1, 2-3, 0-3, 1-3, 1-4 = 8-17

Game total when SYRACUSE had the ball: 32-60, 26-42, 45-47, 32-39, 44-39, 30-47 = 209-274


When OPPONENT had the ball:

KO: 0-5, 0-4, 4-0, 1-7, 4-3, 0-7 = 9-26
P: 0-4, 3-1, 1-6, 0-1, 2-2, 0-4 = 6-18
FG: 1-1, 2-0, 1-0, 0-3, 0-5, 1-2 = 5-11
XP: 0-4, 0-3, 1-2, 0-4, 0-1, 1-5 = 2-19
Kicking plays total: 1-14, 5-8, 7-8, 1-15, 6-11, 2-18 = 22-74

1r: 8-11, 10-11, 13-15, 19-15, 8-14, 6-11 = 64-77
1p: 4-13, 9-4, 6-6, 8-9, 3-7, 9-12 = 39-51
First Down Total: 12-24, 19-15, 19-21, 27-24, 11-21, 15-23 = 103-128
2r: 8-3, 6-8, 5-11, 8-15, 3-12, 8-6 = 38-55
2p: 8-3, 8-6, 6-6, 5-7, 2-5, 5-9 = 34-36
Second Down Total: 16-6, 14-14, 11-17, 13-22, 5-17, 13-15 = 72-91
3r: 2-1, 2-3, 3-5, 1-5, 3-3, 0-5 = 11-22
3p: 5-4, 8-3, 9-0, 4-6, 5-1, 9-3 = 40-17
Third Down Total: 7-5, 10-6, 12-5, 5-11, 8-4, 9-8 = 51-39
4r: 0-0, 0-0, 0-1, 0-0, 2-0, 0-1 = 2-2
4p: 0-1, 0-1, 1-1, 1-0, 0-0, 0-0 = 2-3
Fourth Down Total: 0-1, 0-1, 1-2, 1-0, 2-0, 0-1 = 4-5

Total on running plays: 18-15, 18-22, 21-32, 28-35, 16-29, 14-23 = 115-156
Total on passing plays: 17-21, 25-14, 22-13, 18-22, 10-13, 23-24 = 115-107
Total on plays from scrimmage: 35-36, 43-36, 43-45, 46-57, 26-42, 37-47 = 230-263

Penalties not tacked on to plays: 2-4, 5-8, 13-2, 0-3, 1-1, 3-0 = 24-18

Game total when OPPONENT had the ball: 38-54, 52-47, 63-55, 47-75, 33-54, 42-65 = 275-350

Overall game total: 70-114, 78-89, 108-102, 79-114, 77-93, 72-112 = 484-624

Comments: We have been awful on third and fourth downs on offense, (24-73). In 2018 we were 100-130. Our passing game , despite the occasional big play, has been lousy, (62-144).



HISTORICAL WINNING PLAYS (Babers Era – game totals only)

2016
Syracuse 101 Colgate 74 = +27
Syracuse 99 Louisville 132 = -33
Syracuse 95 South Florida 116 = -21
Syracuse 91 Connecticut 99 = -8
Syracuse 98 Notre Dame 111 = -13
Syracuse 72 Wake Forest 101 = -29
Syracuse 103 Virginia Tech 104 = -1
Syracuse 93 Boston College 84 = +9
Syracuse 74 Clemson 120 = -46
Syracuse 71 North Carolina State 103 = -32
Syracuse 71 Florida State 120 = -49
Syracuse 107 Pittsburgh 118 = -11
TOTAL: Syracuse 1075 Opponent 1282 = -207 We 'won' 2 of 12 games.

2017
Syracuse 132 Central Connecticut 65 = +67
Syracuse 104 Middle Tennessee 98 = +6
Syracuse 107 Central Michigan 100 = +7
Syracuse 80 Louisiana State 103 = -23
Syracuse 93 North Carolina State 112 = -19
Syracuse 97 Pittsburgh 96 = +1
Syracuse 95 Clemson 97= -2
Syracuse 86 Miami 119 = -33
Syracuse 90 Florida State 108 = -18
Syracuse 120 Wake Forest 125 = -5
Syracuse 96 Louisville 100 = -4
Syracuse 77 Boston College 87 = -10
TOTAL: Syracuse 1177 Opponents 1210 = -33 We ‘won’ 4 of12 games

2018
Syracuse 109 Western Michigan 96 = +13
Syracuse 139 Wagner 65 = +74
Syracuse 113 Florida State 77 = +36
Syracuse 109 Connecticut 83 = +26
Syracuse 86 Clemson 102= -16
Syracuse 99 Pittsburgh 97 = +2
Syracuse 113 North Carolina 115 = -2
Syracuse 113 North Carolina State 96 = +17
Syracuse 117 Wake Forest 107 = +10
Syracuse 124 Louisville 83 = +41
Syracuse 86 Notre Dame 99 = -13
Syracuse 110 Boston College 96 = +14
Syracuse 116 West Virginia 79 +37
TOTAL: Syracuse 1434 Opponents 1195 = +239 We ‘won’ 10 of 13 games

2019
Syracuse 104 Liberty 84 = +20
Syracuse 82 Maryland 112 = -30
Syracuse 77 Clemson 113 = -36
Syracuse 113 Western Michigan 99 =+14
Syracuse 110 Holy Cross 67 = +43
Syracuse 78 North Carolina State 100 = -22
Syracuse 92 Pittsburgh 114 = -22
Syracuse 96 Florida State 115 = -19
Syracuse 76 Boston College 119 = -43
Syracuse 107 Duke 78 = +29
Syracuse 85 Louisville 104 = -19
Syracuse 118 Wake Forest 111 = +7
TOTAL: Syracuse 1138 Opponents 1216 = -78 We ‘won’ 5 of 12 games

2020
Syracuse 70 North Carolina 114 = -44
Syracuse 78 Pittsburgh 89 = -11
Syracuse 108 Georgia Tech 102 = +6
Syracuse 79 Duke 114 = -35
Syracuse 77 Liberty 93 = -16
Syracuse 72 Clemson 112 = -40
TOTAL: Syracuse 484 Opponents 624 = -140 We’ve ‘won’ 1 of 6 games

Totals since 2016: Syracuse has won 5,308 plays, (49.0%) and 22 games, (40.0%). The opposition has won 5,527 plays and 33 games. They’ve obtained their goals on 219 more plays than we have in 55 games, an average of 4.0 plays a game.
 
SWC — you are amazing with these stats. Having said that, I wonder whether this is the best use of your talents? Compared to the Thursday night write-ups, the “why SU will win”. Upside/downside, pre-season previews, narrative histories. All of which are great contributions to this site.
 
SWC — you are amazing with these stats. Having said that, I wonder whether this is the best use of your talents? Compared to the Thursday night write-ups, the “why SU will win”. Upside/downside, pre-season previews, narrative histories. All of which are great contributions to this site.

I'll continue to do them, too. I've been doing all these for years. They all have value.
 

Forum statistics

Threads
167,145
Messages
4,683,032
Members
5,901
Latest member
CarlsbergMD

Online statistics

Members online
269
Guests online
1,421
Total visitors
1,690


Top Bottom