Winning Plays - Clemson

[SWC75]

This season I will once again be charting Syracuse’s games in terms of “winning plays”. I look at the results of each play and decide which team got the minimum they wanted out of the play. Rather than making instinctive judgments, I use a formula:

- On first down, the offensive team wants to get at least a third of the way to a new first down: they will have two more plays before they might have to surrender the ball and if they gain that same amount of yards on each of those two plays, they’ll get the first down. If they don’t make it a third of the way to a new first down, the defense won the play.
- On second down, the offense wants to get at least halfway to a new first down by the same logic.
- On third and fourth down, they want to get the first down.
- Penalties, if added onto a play by the referees, are added on to the results above. If the offense gains 5 yards on first down but there was holding and they lost yardage instead, the defense won the play. If a running back made a 20 yard run on first and ten and the holding was 15 yards downfield, turning it into a 5 yard gain, that’s still a win for the offense. If the defense is penalized and it’s tacked on, again the net result is what is evaluated. The penalties I’ve listed negated the play entirely and are a “loss” for the penalized team and thus a win for their opponent. .
- If a penalty was not tacked onto a play, it’s a lost play for the team being penalized. I'll count them separate from the other plays from scrimmage because I don't know if the intended play before the penalty would have been a run or a pass - so i wouldn't know where to put it in the chart below.
- A turnover is, obviously, a win for the team that wound up with the ball.
- On a kick-off a touchback brings the ball out to the 25 yard line. Teams still seem to be trying to kick the ball into the end zone and avoid a runback if they can, so any kick-off that results in the receiving team starting between their goal line and their 25 is a win for the kicking team. Beyond that, the receiving team wins.
- On a punt, a touchback takes the ball out of the 20. So any punt that results in the other team taking over from their goal line to their 20 is a win for the punting team. If the next change in field position is at least 40 yards, the punting tam has also won the play.
- A successful place kick is, obviously, a win for the kicking team.
- Any play that results in a touchdown is, obviously, a win for that team that scores it.
- A “victory play” where a team accepts a loss just to let the clock run out, is a win for the offensive team.

I will indicate in parenthesis how many yards there were to go to get a new first down, (if other than 10), unless it was for no gain or negative yardage. If it was a touchdown, (“TD)” a scramble/sack (“S”) a victory play (“V”) or involved a penalty (P). I’ll treat a scramble or a sack as a passing play as the Cuse.com play by play now tells you when it’s either of those two. 1R means first down running plays. 1P means first down passing plays, etc.

When Syracuse had the ball:

Drive Starts: S17, S38, S27, S9, S20, S25, S19, S43, S45, S30, S25, S7 Average: 305/12 = S25 with 897 yards to go, 42 yards less than Syracuse.

KO: C25, C25, C25
Total: Syracuse 3 Clemson 0
P: 34 to C22, 44 to C17, 34 to C42, 38 to C16, 45 to C2, 42 to C13, 42 to 31
Total: Syracuse 5 Clemson 2
FG: No Good from 48
Total: Syracuse 0 Clemson 1
XP: Good, Good
Total: Syracuse 2 Clemson 0
Kicking plays total: Syracuse 10 Clemson 3

1r: 7, 4, 9, 1, 54, 4, 0, 8(5), 39, 2TD, 3, 2, 2, -1, 2, 0, 2(15), 2, 11, 2, 9
Total: Syracuse 10 Clemson 11
1p: 5, Interception, I, I, 15, 5, I, I
Total: Syracuse 3 Clemson 5
First Down Total: Syracuse 13 Clemson 16
2r: 0, -15(p), 1(7), 4, 2(1)
Total: Syracuse 2 Clemson 3
2p: 3(3), I, 5(16), I, 8(6), 11, I, 4(11), I, I, 6(5), I, I, I, 8
Total: Syracuse 4 Clemson 12
Second Down Total: Syracuse 6 Clemson 15
3r: 2, 1(2)
Total: Syracuse 1 Clemson 1
3p: 10(5), 5(60, I, 14, I, 7(6), I, -3(s), I, I, 62TD, 17(15), 5(12)
Total: Syracuse 5 Clemson 8
Third Down Total: Syracuse 6 Clemson 9
4r: 2
Total: Syracuse 0 Clemson 1
4p: 17(7)
Total: Syracuse 1 Clemson 0
Fourth Down Total: Syracuse 1 Clemson 1

Total on running plays: Syracuse 13 Clemson 16
Total on passing plays: Syracuse 13 Clemson 25
Total on plays from scrimmage: Syracuse 26 Clemson 41

Penalties not tacked on to plays: -5, +15, -5, -5 Syracuse 1 Clemson 3

Game total when Syracuse had the ball: Syracuse 37 Clemson 47


When Clemson had the ball:

Drive Starts: C22, C17, C13, C25, C42, C25, C16, C2, C13, C31, C25, C30 Average: 261/12 = C22 with 939 yards to go, 42 more than Syracuse.

KO: S17, S9, S25, S25
Total: Syracuse 0 Clemson 4
P: 33 to S38, 40 to S27, 58 to S20, 36 to S19, 21 to S43, 39 to S45, 48 to S30, 52 to S7
Total: Syracuse 3 Clemson 5
FG: Good from 40
Total: Syracuse 0 Clemson 1
XP: Good, Good
Total: Syracuse 0 Clemson 2
Kicking plays total: Syracuse 3 Clemson 12

1r: 5, 7, 7, 4, 10(20), 2, 5, 3, 7 -17, 9, 2, 4, 1, 0, 15, 4, 3, -1v
Total: Syracuse 7 Clemson 12
1p: 9, I, 4, 5, 2, I, 6, I, 12, 3(p), 23(7), 9
Total: Syracuse 5 Clemson 7
First Down Total: Syracuse 12 Clemson 19
2r: 6(1), 2(3), 3(3), 20(p,6), 3, 0, 2TD, 7(3), 9(1), 8, 3(1), 1(7)
Total: Syracuse 3 Clemson 9
2p: 2, I, 30(p,14), 9(5), I, 7(5), 3(8), I, 15(14), 11(27), -5(s), I, 4(14), I
Total: Syracuse 10 Clemson 5
Second Down Total: Syracuse 13 Clemson 14
3r: 4(1), 1(2), 1(6)
Total: Syracuse 2 Clemson 1
3p: -6(s), 6(5), 897), 19TD, I, I, 11, I, I, 10(6), I, I
Total: Syracuse 7 Clemson 5
Third Down Total: Syracuse 9 Clemson 6
4r: none
Total: Syracuse 0 Clemson 0
4p: 17(5)
Total: Syracuse 1 Clemson 0
Fourth Down Total: Syracuse 1 Clemson 0

Total on running plays: Syracuse 12 Clemson 22
Total on passing plays: Syracuse 23 Clemson 17
Total on plays from scrimmage: Syracuse 35 Clemson 39

Penalties not tacked on to plays: -10, -5, -10, +5, -5 Syracuse 4 Clemson 1

Game total when Clemson had the ball: Syracuse 42 Clemson 52

Overall game total: Syracuse 79 Clemson 99

Comments: We were -15 in offensive plays, (26-41). Our biggest deficit was in passing, (13-25) but we went from 34-15 in rushing vs. Wake Forest to 13-16. Our rush defense didn’t have a big game, (12-22 after 17-19 and 22-20 the previous two week). The pass defense was still pretty good (23-17).

Our punting was a plus (5-2) after consecutive 1-5 games, giving us a dominant rating when kicking the ball (10-3) after 10-7 and 10-8 the previous two games.

79-99 is a -20 game. Here are the closest games to that in the Babers Era:
2016: Syracuse 95 South Florida 116 = -21 We lost 20-45
2017: Syracuse 80 Louisiana State 103 = -23 We lost 26-35
2017: Syracuse 93 North Carolina State 112 = -19 We lost 25-33
2017: Syracuse 90 Florida State 108 = -18 We lost 24-27
2018: Syracuse 86 Clemson 102= -16 We lost 23-27
2019: Syracuse 78 North Carolina State 100 = -22 We lost 10-16
2019: Syracuse 92 Pittsburgh 114 = -22 We lost 20-27
2019: Syracuse 96 Florida State 115 = -19 We lost 17-35
2019: Syracuse 85 Louisville 104 = -19 We lost 34-56
2020: Syracuse 77 Liberty 93 = -16 We lost 21-38
2020: Syracuse 76 Wake Forest 99 = -23 We lost 14-38
2020: Syracuse 82 Notre Dame 100 = -18 We lost 21-45
Losing games by 20 plays is too much for us to overcome, although we sometimes have made the game close.

 

[SWC75]

GAME BY GAME and TOTALS FOR THE YEAR

When SYRACUSE had the ball:

Drive Starts: 261/9 = S29, 292/13 = S22, 540/14 = S39, 322/12 = S27, 498/14 = S36, 283/13 = SU22 Season: 2,195/75 = S29 with 5,305 yards to go, 44 more than the opposition.

KO: 3-3 + 2-0 + 10-0 + 4-0 + 5-1 + 5-1 + 3-0 = 32-5
P: 2-0 + 4-4 + 0-1 + 5-2 + 1-5 + 1-5 + 5-2 = 18-19
FG: 2-0 + 0-1 + 2-0 + 1-1 + 1-0 + 1-1 + 2-0 = 9-3
XP: 3-0 + 1-0 + 8-0 + 3-0 + 3-1 + 3-1 + 0-1 = 21-3
Kicking plays total: 10-3 + 7-5 + 20-1 + 13-3 + 10-7 + 10-8 + 10-3 = 80-30

1r: 16-8 + 5-9 + 12-12 + 15-12 + 13-9 + 15-10 + 10-11 = 86-71
1p: 5-1 + 4-8 + 5-4 + 1-2 + 5-3 + 6-6 + 3-5 = 29-29
First Down Total: 21-9 + 9-17 + 17-16 + 16-14 + 18-12 + 21-16 + 13-16 = 115-100
2r: 10-4 + 3-5 + 8-5 + 13-4 + 5-9 + 15-3 + 2-3 = 56-33
2p: 4-3 + 6-5 + 6-3 + 4-3 + 1-2 + 4-4 + 4-12 = 29-32
Second Down Total: 14-7 + 9-10 + 14-8 + 17-7 + 6-11 + 19-7 + 6-15 = 85-65
3r: 6-0 + 1-1 + 1-1 + 3-4 + 0-2 + 4-2 + 1-1 = 16-11
3p: 2-4 + 2-11 + 3-3 + 1-5 + 2-8 + 2-5 + 5-8 = 17-44
Third Down Total: 8-4 + 3-12 + 4-4 + 4-9 + 2-10 + 6-7 + 6-9 = 33-55
4r: 0-0 + 1-0 + 1-0 + 0-0 + 0-2 + 0-0 + 0-1 = 2-3
4p: 0-0 + 0-0 + 0-0 + 0-0 + 0-1 + 0-0 + 1-0 = 1-1
Fourth Down Total: 0-0 + 1-0 + 1-0 + 0-0 + 0-3 + 0-0 + 1-1 = 3-4

Total on running plays: 32-12 + 10-15 + 22-18 + 31-20 + 18-22 + 34-15 + 13-16 = 160-118
Total on passing plays: 11-8 + 12-24 + 14-10 + 6-10 + 8-14 + 12-15 + 13-25 = 76-106
Total on plays from scrimmage: 43-20 + 22-39 + 36-28 + 37-30 + 26-36 + 46-30 + 26-41 = 236-224

Penalties not tacked on to plays: 0-0 + 0-3 + 1-8 + 1-2 + 0-0 + 0-1+ 1-3 = 3-17

Game total when SYRACUSE had the ball: 53-23 + 29-47 + 57-37 + 51-35 + 36-43 + 56-39 + 37-47 = 319-271


When OPPONENT had the ball:

Drive Starts: 139/8 = O17, 573/14 = 41, 391/14 = O28, 289/12 = O24, 378/13 = O29, 469/14 = O34
Total: 2,239/75 = O30 with 5,261 yards to go, 44 less than Syracuse.

KO: 4-1 + 0-3 + 3-2 + 0-4 + 4-2 + 1-5 + 0-4 = 12-21
P: 1-0 + 0-6 + 5-4 + 0-5 + 2-4 + 2-3 + 3-5 = 13-27
FG: 1-3 + 1-1 + 0-1 + 1-0 + 0-2 + 0-2 + 0-1 = 3-10
XP: 0-0 + 0-2 + 0-3 + 0-3 + 1-3 + 1-2 + 0-2 = 2-15
Kicking plays total: 6-4 + 1-12 + 8-10 + 1-12 + 7-11 + 4-12 + 3-12 = 30-73

1r: 7-9 + 5-12 + 9-3 + 7-8 + 7-10 + 15-9 + 7-12 = 57-63
1p: 5-5 + 5-6 + 7-5 + 6-9 + 8-7 + 4-7 + 5-7 = 40-46
First Down Total: 12-14 + 10-18 + 16-8 + 13-17 + 15-17 + 19-16 + 12-19 = 97-109
2r: 3-9 + 6-6 + 5-1 + 3-9 + 5-4 + 7-7 + 3-9 = 32-45
2p: 5-5 + 3-9 + 7-4 + 3-4 + 6-5 + 4-8 + 10-5 = 38-40
Second Down Total: 8-14 + 9-15 + 12-5 + 6-13 + 11-9 + 11-15 + 13-14 = 70-85
3r: 2-3 + 5-3 + 4-1 + 1-5 + 5-4 + 0-4 + 2-1 = 19-21
3p: 4-3 + 7-0 + 4-4 + 5-0 + 4-2 + 8-4 + 7-5 = 39-18
Third Down Total: 6-6 + 12-3 + 8-5 + 6-5 + 9-6 + 8-8 + 9-6 = 58-39
4r: 0-1 + 1-3 + 0-0 + 1-0 + 0-1 + 0-0 + 0-0 = 2-5
4p: 1-0 + 0-0 + 0-0 + 0-0 + 0-1 + 0-1 + 1-0 = 2-2
Fourth Down Total: 1-1 + 1-3 + 0-0 + 1-0 + 0-2 + 0-1 + 1-0 = 4-7

Total on running plays: 12-22 + 17-24 + 18-5 + 12-22 + 17-19 + 22-20 + 12-22 = 110-134
Total on passing plays: 15-13 + 15-15 + 18-13 + 14-13 + 18-15 + 16-20 + 23-17 = 119-106
Total on plays from scrimmage: 27-35 + 32-39 + 36-18 + 26-35 + 35-34 + 38-39 + 35-39 = 229-240

Penalties not tacked on to plays: 0-1 + 2-3 + 2-4 + 1-1 + 1-2 + 4-1 + 4-1 = 14-13

Game total when OPPONENT had the ball: 33-40 + 35-54 + 46-32 + 28-48 + 41-47 + 46-53 + 42-52 = 273-326

Overall game total: 86-63 + 64-101 + 103-69 + 79-83 + 79-90 + 102-92 + 79-99 = 592-597

Comments: We are +48 (319-271) when we have the ball and -53 (273-326) when our opponents have the ball. Defensively, we’re pretty good on 3rd and 4th down, (especially third down passes: 39-18, with one notable exception), but give up too much on 1st and 2nd down. We also just have 6 takeovers in 7 games after 31, 25 and 24, (total: 80), in the last three years (36 games) and are -2 for the year.

We are now a dreadful 17-44 on third down passes. We and our opposition have gained first downs or touchdowns 35 times from 118 third down passes, (30%)


HISTORICAL WINNING PLAYS (Babers Era – game totals only)

2016
Syracuse 101 Colgate 74 = +27
Syracuse 99 Louisville 132 = -33
Syracuse 95 South Florida 116 = -21
Syracuse 91 Connecticut 99 = -8
Syracuse 98 Notre Dame 111 = -13
Syracuse 72 Wake Forest 101 = -29
Syracuse 103 Virginia Tech 104 = -1
Syracuse 93 Boston College 84 = +9
Syracuse 74 Clemson 120 = -46
Syracuse 71 North Carolina State 103 = -32
Syracuse 71 Florida State 120 = -49
Syracuse 107 Pittsburgh 118 = -11
TOTAL: Syracuse 1075 Opponent 1282 = -207 We 'won' 2 of 12 games.

2017
Syracuse 132 Central Connecticut 65 = +67
Syracuse 104 Middle Tennessee 98 = +6
Syracuse 107 Central Michigan 100 = +7
Syracuse 80 Louisiana State 103 = -23
Syracuse 93 North Carolina State 112 = -19
Syracuse 97 Pittsburgh 96 = +1
Syracuse 95 Clemson 97= -2
Syracuse 86 Miami 119 = -33
Syracuse 90 Florida State 108 = -18
Syracuse 120 Wake Forest 125 = -5
Syracuse 96 Louisville 100 = -4
Syracuse 77 Boston College 87 = -10
TOTAL: Syracuse 1177 Opponents 1210 = -33 We ‘won’ 4 of12 games

2018
Syracuse 109 Western Michigan 96 = +13
Syracuse 139 Wagner 65 = +74
Syracuse 113 Florida State 77 = +36
Syracuse 109 Connecticut 83 = +26
Syracuse 86 Clemson 102= -16
Syracuse 99 Pittsburgh 97 = +2
Syracuse 113 North Carolina 115 = -2
Syracuse 113 North Carolina State 96 = +17
Syracuse 117 Wake Forest 107 = +10
Syracuse 124 Louisville 83 = +41
Syracuse 86 Notre Dame 99 = -13
Syracuse 110 Boston College 96 = +14
Syracuse 116 West Virginia 79 +37
TOTAL: Syracuse 1434 Opponents 1195 = +239 We ‘won’ 10 of 13 games

2019
Syracuse 104 Liberty 84 = +20
Syracuse 82 Maryland 112 = -30
Syracuse 77 Clemson 113 = -36
Syracuse 113 Western Michigan 99 =+14
Syracuse 110 Holy Cross 67 = +43
Syracuse 78 North Carolina State 100 = -22
Syracuse 92 Pittsburgh 114 = -22
Syracuse 96 Florida State 115 = -19
Syracuse 76 Boston College 119 = -43
Syracuse 107 Duke 78 = +29
Syracuse 85 Louisville 104 = -19
Syracuse 118 Wake Forest 111 = +7
TOTAL: Syracuse 1138 Opponents 1216 = -78 We ‘won’ 5 of 12 games

2020
Syracuse 70 North Carolina 114 = -44
Syracuse 78 Pittsburgh 89 = -11
Syracuse 108 Georgia Tech 102 = +6
Syracuse 79 Duke 114 = -35
Syracuse 77 Liberty 93 = -16
Syracuse 72 Clemson 112 = -40
Syracuse 76 Wake Forest 99 = -23
Syracuse 68 Boston College 96 = -28
Syracuse 76 Louisville 81 = -5
Syracuse 76 North Carolina State 108 = -32
Syracuse 82 Notre Dame 100 = -18
TOTAL: Syracuse 862 Opponents 1108 = -248 We ‘won’ 1 of 11 games

2021
Syracuse 86 Ohio U. 63 = +23
Syracuse 64 Rutgers 101 = -37
Syracuse 103 Albany 69 = +34
Syracuse 79 Liberty 83 = -4
Syracuse 79 Florida State 90 = -11
Syracuse 102 Wake Forest 92 = +10
Syracuse 79 Clemson 99 = -20
TOTAL: Syracuse 592-597 = -5 We’ve won 3 of 7 games

Totals since 2016: Syracuse has won 6,278 plays, (48.7%) and 25 games, (37.3%). The opposition has won 6,608 plays and 42 games. They’ve obtained their goals on 330 more plays than we have in 67 games, an average of 4.9 plays a game.