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Message: [QUOTE="SWC75, post: 4013070, member: 289"] This season I will once again be charting Syracuse’s games in terms of “winning plays”. I look at the results of each play and decide which team got the minimum they wanted out of the play. Rather than making instinctive judgments, I use a formula: - On first down, the offensive team wants to get at least a third of the way to a new first down: they will have two more plays before they might have to surrender the ball and if they gain that same amount of yards on each of those two plays, they’ll get the first down. If they don’t make it a third of the way to a new first down, the defense won the play. - On second down, the offense wants to get at least halfway to a new first down by the same logic. - On third and fourth down, they want to get the first down. - Penalties, if added onto a play by the referees, are added on to the results above. If the offense gains 5 yards on first down but there was holding and they lost yardage instead, the defense won the play. If a running back made a 20 yard run on first and ten and the holding was 15 yards downfield, turning it into a 5 yard gain, that’s still a win for the offense. If the defense is penalized and it’s tacked on, again the net result is what is evaluated. The penalties I’ve listed negated the play entirely and are a “loss” for the penalized team and thus a win for their opponent. . - If a penalty was not tacked onto a play, it’s a lost play for the team being penalized. I'll count them separate from the other plays from scrimmage because I don't know if the intended play before the penalty would have been a run or a pass - so i wouldn't know where to put it in the chart below. - A turnover is, obviously, a win for the team that wound up with the ball. - On a kick-off a touchback brings the ball out to the 25 yard line. Teams still seem to be trying to kick the ball into the end zone and avoid a runback if they can, so any kick-off that results in the receiving team starting between their goal line and their 25 is a win for the kicking team. Beyond that, the receiving team wins. - On a punt, a touchback takes the ball out of the 20. So any punt that results in the other team taking over from their goal line to their 20 is a win for the punting team. If the next change in field position is at least 40 yards, the punting tam has also won the play. - A successful place kick is, obviously, a win for the kicking team. - Any play that results in a touchdown is, obviously, a win for that team that scores it. - A “victory play” where a team accepts a loss just to let the clock run out, is a win for the offensive team. I will indicate in parenthesis how many yards there were to go to get a new first down, (if other than 10), unless it was for no gain or negative yardage. If it was a touchdown, (“TD)” a scramble/sack (“S”) a victory play (“V”) or involved a penalty (P). I’ll treat a scramble or a sack as a passing play as the Cuse.com play by play now tells you when it’s either of those two. 1R means first down running plays. 1P means first down passing plays, etc. When Syracuse had the ball: Drive Starts: S17, S38, S27, S9, S20, S25, S19, S43, S45, S30, S25, S7 Average: 305/12 = S25 with 897 yards to go, 42 yards less than Syracuse. KO: C25, C25, C25 Total: Syracuse 3 Clemson 0 P: 34 to C22, 44 to C17, 34 to C42, 38 to C16, 45 to C2, 42 to C13, 42 to 31 Total: Syracuse 5 Clemson 2 FG: No Good from 48 Total: Syracuse 0 Clemson 1 XP: Good, Good Total: Syracuse 2 Clemson 0 Kicking plays total: Syracuse 10 Clemson 3 1r: 7, 4, 9, 1, 54, 4, 0, 8(5), 39, 2TD, 3, 2, 2, -1, 2, 0, 2(15), 2, 11, 2, 9 Total: Syracuse 10 Clemson 11 1p: 5, Interception, I, I, 15, 5, I, I Total: Syracuse 3 Clemson 5 First Down Total: Syracuse 13 Clemson 16 2r: 0, -15(p), 1(7), 4, 2(1) Total: Syracuse 2 Clemson 3 2p: 3(3), I, 5(16), I, 8(6), 11, I, 4(11), I, I, 6(5), I, I, I, 8 Total: Syracuse 4 Clemson 12 Second Down Total: Syracuse 6 Clemson 15 3r: 2, 1(2) Total: Syracuse 1 Clemson 1 3p: 10(5), 5(60, I, 14, I, 7(6), I, -3(s), I, I, 62TD, 17(15), 5(12) Total: Syracuse 5 Clemson 8 Third Down Total: Syracuse 6 Clemson 9 4r: 2 Total: Syracuse 0 Clemson 1 4p: 17(7) Total: Syracuse 1 Clemson 0 Fourth Down Total: Syracuse 1 Clemson 1 Total on running plays: Syracuse 13 Clemson 16 Total on passing plays: Syracuse 13 Clemson 25 Total on plays from scrimmage: Syracuse 26 Clemson 41 Penalties not tacked on to plays: -5, +15, -5, -5 Syracuse 1 Clemson 3 Game total when Syracuse had the ball: Syracuse 37 Clemson 47 When Clemson had the ball: Drive Starts: C22, C17, C13, C25, C42, C25, C16, C2, C13, C31, C25, C30 Average: 261/12 = C22 with 939 yards to go, 42 more than Syracuse. KO: S17, S9, S25, S25 Total: Syracuse 0 Clemson 4 P: 33 to S38, 40 to S27, 58 to S20, 36 to S19, 21 to S43, 39 to S45, 48 to S30, 52 to S7 Total: Syracuse 3 Clemson 5 FG: Good from 40 Total: Syracuse 0 Clemson 1 XP: Good, Good Total: Syracuse 0 Clemson 2 Kicking plays total: Syracuse 3 Clemson 12 1r: 5, 7, 7, 4, 10(20), 2, 5, 3, 7 -17, 9, 2, 4, 1, 0, 15, 4, 3, -1v Total: Syracuse 7 Clemson 12 1p: 9, I, 4, 5, 2, I, 6, I, 12, 3(p), 23(7), 9 Total: Syracuse 5 Clemson 7 First Down Total: Syracuse 12 Clemson 19 2r: 6(1), 2(3), 3(3), 20(p,6), 3, 0, 2TD, 7(3), 9(1), 8, 3(1), 1(7) Total: Syracuse 3 Clemson 9 2p: 2, I, 30(p,14), 9(5), I, 7(5), 3(8), I, 15(14), 11(27), -5(s), I, 4(14), I Total: Syracuse 10 Clemson 5 Second Down Total: Syracuse 13 Clemson 14 3r: 4(1), 1(2), 1(6) Total: Syracuse 2 Clemson 1 3p: -6(s), 6(5), 897), 19TD, I, I, 11, I, I, 10(6), I, I Total: Syracuse 7 Clemson 5 Third Down Total: Syracuse 9 Clemson 6 4r: none Total: Syracuse 0 Clemson 0 4p: 17(5) Total: Syracuse 1 Clemson 0 Fourth Down Total: Syracuse 1 Clemson 0 Total on running plays: Syracuse 12 Clemson 22 Total on passing plays: Syracuse 23 Clemson 17 Total on plays from scrimmage: Syracuse 35 Clemson 39 Penalties not tacked on to plays: -10, -5, -10, +5, -5 Syracuse 4 Clemson 1 Game total when Clemson had the ball: Syracuse 42 Clemson 52 Overall game total: Syracuse 79 Clemson 99 Comments: We were -15 in offensive plays, (26-41). Our biggest deficit was in passing, (13-25) but we went from 34-15 in rushing vs. Wake Forest to 13-16. Our rush defense didn’t have a big game, (12-22 after 17-19 and 22-20 the previous two week). The pass defense was still pretty good (23-17). Our punting was a plus (5-2) after consecutive 1-5 games, giving us a dominant rating when kicking the ball (10-3) after 10-7 and 10-8 the previous two games. 79-99 is a -20 game. Here are the closest games to that in the Babers Era: 2016: Syracuse 95 South Florida 116 = -21 We lost 20-45 2017: Syracuse 80 Louisiana State 103 = -23 We lost 26-35 2017: Syracuse 93 North Carolina State 112 = -19 We lost 25-33 2017: Syracuse 90 Florida State 108 = -18 We lost 24-27 2018: Syracuse 86 Clemson 102= -16 We lost 23-27 2019: Syracuse 78 North Carolina State 100 = -22 We lost 10-16 2019: Syracuse 92 Pittsburgh 114 = -22 We lost 20-27 2019: Syracuse 96 Florida State 115 = -19 We lost 17-35 2019: Syracuse 85 Louisville 104 = -19 We lost 34-56 2020: Syracuse 77 Liberty 93 = -16 We lost 21-38 2020: Syracuse 76 Wake Forest 99 = -23 We lost 14-38 2020: Syracuse 82 Notre Dame 100 = -18 We lost 21-45 Losing games by 20 plays is too much for us to overcome, although we sometimes have made the game close. [/QUOTE]

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