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Message: [QUOTE="SWC75, post: 4780856, member: 289"] This season I will once again be charting Syracuse’s games in terms of “winning plays”. I look at the results of each play and decide which team got the minimum they wanted out of the play. Rather than making instinctive judgments, I use a formula: - On first down, the offensive team wants to get at least a third of the way to a new first down: they will have two more plays before they might have to surrender the ball and if they gain that same amount of yards on each of those two plays, they’ll get the first down. If they don’t make it a third of the way to a new first down, the defense won the play. - On second down, the offense wants to get at least halfway to a new first down by the same logic. - On third and fourth down, they want to get the first down. - Penalties, if added onto a play by the referees, are added on to the results above. If the offense gains 5 yards on first down but there was holding and they lost yardage instead, the defense won the play. If a running back made a 25 yard run on first and ten and the holding was 20 yards downfield, turning it into a 5 yard gain, that’s still a win for the offense. If the defense is penalized and it’s tacked on, again the net result is what is evaluated. The penalties I’ve listed negated the play entirely and are a “loss” for the penalized team and thus a win for their opponent. - If a penalty was not tacked onto a play, it’s a lost play for the team being penalized. I'll count them separate from the other plays from scrimmage because I don't know if the intended play before the penalty would have been a run or a pass - so I wouldn't know where to put it in the chart below. - A turnover is, obviously, a win for the team that wound up with the ball. - On a kick-off a touchback brings the ball out to the 25 yard line. Teams still seem to be trying to kick the ball into the end zone and avoid a runback if they can, so any kick-off that results in the receiving team starting between their goal line and their 25 is a win for the kicking team. Beyond that, the receiving team wins. - On a punt, a touchback takes the ball out of the 20. So any punt that results in the other team taking over from their goal line to their 20 is a win for the punting team. If the next change in field position is at least 40 yards, the punting team has also won the play. - A successful place kick is, obviously, a win for the kicking team. - Any play that results in a touchdown is, obviously, a win for that team that scores it. - A “victory play” where a team accepts a loss just to let the clock run out, is a win for the offensive team. I will indicate in parenthesis how many yards there were to go to get a new first down, (if other than 10), unless it was for no gain or negative yardage. If it was a touchdown, (“TD)” a scramble/sack (“S”) a victory play (“V”) or involved a penalty (P). I’ll treat a scramble or a sack as a passing play as the Cuse.com play by play now tells you when it’s either of those two. 1R means first down running plays. 1P means first down passing plays, etc. I have decided to list the “Big Plays” at the bottom of each team’s summary. A big play is a play from scrimmage of over 20 yards, (or 20+ yards lost), kickoff returns of +25 yards, punt returns of +20, blocked kicks, missed kicks, and takeovers on fumbles, interceptions and downs. When Syracuse had the ball: Drive Starts: S25, S25, S23, S25, S20, S12, S25, S25, S36, S34, C42, S9, S25, S5 = 347/14 = S24 with 1053 yards to go KO: C25, C25, C25 Total: Syracuse 3 Clemson 0 P: 31(p) to 50, 57 to C18, 49 to C12, 40 to C20, 38 to C20 Total: Syracuse 4 Clemson 1 FG: No Good from 57 Total: Syracuse 0 Clemson 1 XP: Good, Good Total: Syracuse 2 Clemson 0 Kicking plays total: Syracuse 9 Clemson 2 1r: 6, Fumble, Fumble, 8, 10, 2, 1, 2, 4, 1, 1 Total: Syracuse 4 Clemson 7 1p: -7(s), 0, I, I, I, I, I, I, 8, -6(s), I, 4, Interception, I Total: Syracuse 2 Clemson 12 First Down Total: Syracuse 6 Clemson 19 2r: 3(4), 0, 8, 5, 5, 1(2), 4(8), -4, I, 2(3), 1, 5(9) Total: Syracuse 8 Clemson 4 2p: -4(s), 37(20), I, I, 14(16), 35(6), 8(6), 9 Total: Syracuse 7 Clemson 3 Second Down Total: Syracuse 15 Clemson 7 3r: 2(1), 5(21), 12(5), 3(1), 7(13),6(2), 3(1), 15(9) Total: Syracuse 6 Clemson 2 3p: 12, 28TD, 10(15), I, I, -4(s), -8(s), 6TD, 2(9), 15(9) Total: Syracuse 3 Clemson 6 Third Down Total: Syracuse 9 Clemson 8 4r: none Total: Syracuse 0 Clemson 0 4p: I Total: Syracuse 0 Clemson 1 Fourth Down Total: Syracuse 0 Clemson 1 Total on running plays: Syracuse 18 Clemson 13 Total on passing plays: Syracuse 12 Clemson 21 Total on plays from scrimmage: Syracuse 30 Clemson 34 Penalties not tacked on to plays: -10, -5, +12, -5, +10 Syracuse Clemson Game total when Syracuse had the ball: Syracuse 42 Clemson 38 Big Plays (5): 37 yd pass, 28yd TD pass, Sack on 4th down, Fumble recovery, 35 yd pass, When Clemson had the ball: Drive Starts: C45, 50, S3, C25, C18, C39, C16, C25, C12, C20, C20, C25, S32, 50 = 560/14 = C40 with 840 to go. KO: S25, S25, S25, S25, S25, S25 Total: Syracuse 0 Clemson 6 P: 22(p) to S28, 39 to S20, 49 to S36, 44 to S34, 34 to S9, 41 to SU 5 Total: Syracuse 1 Clemson 5 FG: No Good from 42, Good from 38 Total: Syracuse 1 Clemson 1 XP: Good, Good, Good, Good Total: Syracuse 0 Clemson 4 Kicking plays total: Syracuse 2 Clemson 16 1r: 8, 2, 1(3), 3, 1, 5, 1, 23, 4, -2, 5, 3, -5, 2, 9, 5, 32TD, 5 Total: Syracuse 9 Clemson 9 1p: 4, 7, I, 2, I, 47Td, 14, 47, I, 2, Fumble, -1, -1, 16(15), Total: Syracuse 6 Clemson 6 First Down Total: Syracuse 15 Clemson 15 2r: 10(2), 1(8), 2TD, 2(9), 2(5), 2, 3, 17(1), -1, 0 Total: Syracuse 3 Clemson 7 2p: I, I, 11(7), 8, I, I, I, (6), I, 8(12), -8, I, 18(12), -1(s) Total: Syracuse 9 Clemson 5 Second Down Total: Syracuse 12 Clemson 12 3r: -2, 4(2), 0, 0, -1 Total: Syracuse 1 Clemson 4 3p: 14TD, -9(s), 9(5), 16(7), I, 14, 27(4), I, I, 19(12), I Total: Syracuse 5 Clemson 6 Third Down Total: Syracuse 6 Clemson 10 4r: none Total: Syracuse 0 Clemson 0 4p: -7(s) Total: Syracuse 1 Clemson 0 Fourth Down Total: Syracuse 1 Clemson 0 Total on running plays: Syracuse 13 Clemson 20 Total on passing plays: Syracuse 21 Clemson 17 Total on plays from scrimmage: Syracuse 34 Clemson 37 Penalties not tacked on to plays: +16, -5, +5, +15, -5, -5 +5 Syracuse Clemson Game total when Clemson had the ball: Syracuse 38 Clemson 57 Big Plays (8): Fumble recovery, Fumble recovery, 23 yd run, 47 yd TD pass, 27yd TD pass, Interception, 32 yd TD run, Incomplete pass on 4th down. Overall Game Total: Syracuse 81 Clemson 95 Comments: It’s always tough to beat Clemson but it’s especially tough if they average starting on their 40 and we average starting on our 24. The turnovers were, of course, huge but some punts put us on our 12, our 9 and our 5. Our punter averaged 51 yards and their 42 and Clemson had no punt return yards so it wasn’t the kicking game. The Tigers just advanced more when they were on offense and typically were punting from midfield. Normally the most productive down to throw on is first down because the likelihood of running is the greatest, (depending on the down and distance after that). Against Clemson all of our eight first down passes were unsuccessful: six incompletions, one catch stopped at the line of scrimmage and a sack. We wound up 2-12 on first down passes. Overall, we were 6-19 on first down. That’s no way to beat Clemson. We were 15-7 on second down. Go Figure. This was a -14 game (81-95). These are the closest games to that in Dino Babers Era: 2016 Syracuse 98 Notre Dame 111 = -13 We lost 33-50 2016 Syracuse 107 Pittsburgh 118 = -11 We lost 61-76 2018 Syracuse 86 Clemson 102 = -16 We lost 23-27 2018 Syracuse 86 Notre Dame 99 = -13 We lost 3-36 2020 Syracuse 78 Pittsburgh 89 = -11 We lost 10-21 2020 Syracuse 77 Liberty 93 = -16 We lost 21-38 2021 Syracuse 79 Florida State 90 = -11 We lost 30-33 2022 Syracuse 88 Virginia 99 = -11 We won 22-20 Here are Dino’s results against Clemson: 2016 Syracuse 74 Clemson 120 = -46 We lost 0-54 2017 Syracuse 95 Clemson 97= -2 We won 27-24 2018 Syracuse 86 Clemson 102= -16 We lost 23-27 2019 Syracuse 77 Clemson 113 = -36 We lost 6-41 2020 Syracuse 72 Clemson 112 = -40 We lost 21-47 2021 Syracuse 79 Clemson 99 = -20 We lost 14-17 2022 Syracuse 77 Clemson 102 = -25 We lost 21-27 2023 Syracuse 81 Clemson 95 = -14 We lost 14-31 [/QUOTE]

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