Winning Plays: Connecticut

[SWC75]

This season I will once again be charting Syracuse’s games in terms of “winning plays”. I look at the results of each play and decide which team got the minimum they wanted out of the play. Rather than making instinctive judgments, I use a formula:

- On first down, the offensive team wants to get at least a third of the way to a new first down: they will have two more plays before they might have to surrender the ball and if they gain that same amount of yards on each of those two plays, they’ll get the first down. If they don’t make it a third of the way to a new first down, the defense won the play.
- On second down, the offense wants to get at least halfway to a new first down by the same logic.
- On third and fourth down, they want to get the first down.
- Penalties, if added onto a play by the referees, are added on to the results above. If the offense gains 5 yards on first down but there was holding and they lost yardage instead, the defense won the play. If a running back made a 25 yard run on first and ten and the holding was 20 yards downfield, turning it into a 5 yard gain, that’s still a win for the offense. If the defense is penalized and it’s tacked on, again the net result is what is evaluated. The penalties I’ve listed negated the play entirely and are a “loss” for the penalized team and thus a win for their opponent.
- If a penalty was not tacked onto a play, it’s a lost play for the team being penalized. I'll count them separate from the other plays from scrimmage because I don't know if the intended play before the penalty would have been a run or a pass - so I wouldn't know where to put it in the chart below.
- A turnover is, obviously, a win for the team that wound up with the ball.
- On a kick-off a touchback brings the ball out to the 25 yard line. Teams still seem to be trying to kick the ball into the end zone and avoid a runback if they can, so any kick-off that results in the receiving team starting between their goal line and their 25 is a win for the kicking team. Beyond that, the receiving team wins.
- On a punt, a touchback takes the ball out of the 20. So any punt that results in the other team taking over from their goal line to their 20 is a win for the punting team. If the next change in field position is at least 40 yards, the punting team has also won the play.
- A successful place kick is, obviously, a win for the kicking team.
- Any play that results in a touchdown is, obviously, a win for that team that scores it.
- A “victory play” where a team accepts a loss just to let the clock run out, is a win for the offensive team.

I will indicate in parenthesis how many yards there were to go to get a new first down, (if other than 10), unless it was for no gain or negative yardage. If it was a touchdown, (“TD)” a scramble/sack (“S”) a victory play (“V”) or involved a penalty (P). I’ll treat a scramble or a sack as a passing play as the Cuse.com play by play now tells you when it’s either of those two. 1R means first down running plays. 1P means first down passing plays, etc.

I have decided to list the “Big Plays” at the bottom of each team’s summary. A big play is a play from scrimmage of over 20 yards, (or 20+ yards lost), kickoff returns of +25 yards, punt returns of +20, blocked kicks, missed kicks, and takeovers on fumbles, interceptions and downs.

When Syracuse had the ball:

Drive Starts: SU 25, SU 30, SU 23, SU20, SU 32, SU 25, SU 4, SU 27, SU 47, CN 45 = 344/12 = SU 29 with 856 yards to go, (48 more than Connecticut but in one more possession)

KO: CN 25, CN 25, CN 25, CN 25, CN 25
Total: Syracuse 5 Connecticut 0
P: 41 to CN 5, 52 to CN 11, 29 to SU 34
Total: Syracuse 2 Connecticut 1
FG: No Good from 36, No Good from 52, Good from 23
Total: Syracuse 1 Connecticut 2
XP: Good, Good, Good
Total: Syracuse 3 Connecticut 0
Kicking plays total: Syracuse 11 Connecticut 3

1r: 10, 1, 2, 5, 0, -1, 2, 10, 3, 0, 6, 0, 3, 1, -3v
Total: Syracuse 5 Connecticut 10
1p: 53, 22TD, 23, 5, 11, 32, 18(25), 11, I, 2(3), 3, 23, 4, 5, 10(15), I, I, 1, 3(4)
Total: Syracuse 14 Connecticut 5
First Down Total: Syracuse 19 Connecticut 15
2r: 4(8), 4(5), 1TD, 4(5), 4, 2(5), 2(3), 1TD, -3V
Total: Syracuse 8 Connecticut 1
2p: 2(9), 7, 16(11), 5TD, I, 2(7), I, I, 8(7), 3(6), 32(4), I, 5, 9, 18(9), 5(9)
Total: Syracuse 10 Connecticut 6
Second Down Total: Syracuse 18 Connecticut 7
3r: 1(1), 1(6), 1(1), -2v
Total: Syracuse 3 Connecticut 1
3p: 19(7), 8(19), 14(3), I, 15(5), 6(7), 19(15), 0, 24(3), I, I, 20(5), -11(s)
Total: Syracuse 6 Connecticut 7
Third Down Total: Syracuse 9 Connecticut 8
4r: 1(1), 12(1)
Total: Syracuse 2 Connecticut 0
4p: 4(5)
Total: Syracuse 0 Connecticut 1
Fourth Down Total: Syracuse 2 Connecticut 1

Total on running plays: Syracuse 18 Connecticut 12
Total on passing plays: Syracuse 30 Connecticut 19
Total on plays from scrimmage: Syracuse 48 Connecticut 31

Penalties not tacked on to plays: -15, -15, -5, -5, -5, +15, +15. -5 Syracuse 2 Connecticut 6

Game total when Syracuse had the ball: Syracuse 61 Connecticut 40

Big Plays: 53-pass, 22TD-pass, 23-pass, 32-pass, 23-pass, 24-pass, 24-pass, 32-pass, 20-pass (8)

Comments: 5-10 on first down runs against Connecticut is disappointing. But we were 8-1 on second down. I wonder if it would be best to concentrate on passing on first down and running the ball on second down. Our “establish the run” concept on first doesn’t seem to be helping us. WE were actually 18-12 on running plays, 13-2 after first down.


When Connecticut had the ball:

Drive Starts: CN 25, CN 20, CN 25, CN 5, CN 25, CN 25, CN 40, CN 25, SU 34, CN 25, CN 11 = 292/11 = CN 27 with 808 yards to go, 48 less than Syracuse in one fewer possession.

KO: SU 25, SU 23, SU 25, SU 27, Onsides try- No Good
Total: Syracuse 2 Connecticut 3
P: 39 to SU 30, 49 to SU 20, 6 to SU 32, 40 to SU 30, 41 to SU 26, 36 to SU 4
Total: Syracuse 1 Connecticut 5
FG: Good from 42
Total: Syracuse 0 Connecticut 1
XP: Good, Good, Good
Total: Syracuse 0 Connecticut 3
Kicking plays total: Syracuse 3 Connecticut 12

1r: 2, 0, 1, 35, 6, 3
Total: Syracuse 4 Connecticut 2
1p: 4, I. 7, 30, 15, I, 5TD, 3, -7(s), I, -1(s), 7, I, 5, 4, I 28, I, 9, I, I
Total: Syracuse 11 Connecticut 10
First Down Total: Syracuse 15 Connecticut 12
2r: 2(6), 1, 2, 0
Total: Syracuse 4 Connecticut 0
2p: 4(8), I, I, 10(110, 2(7), I, I, 5(4), 8, 4, 8(6), 10, 16, I, 4, 2TD
Total: Syracuse 8 Connecticut 8
Second Down Total: Syracuse 12 Connecticut 8
3r: 2(1), 2(2), -1, 3(1)
Total: Syracuse 1 Connecticut 3
3p: I, 9(1), I, 15(9), I, 12(8), I, I, I, I, I, 3(6)
Total: Syracuse 9 Connecticut 3
Third Down Total: Syracuse 10 Connecticut 6
4r: 71TD
Total: Syracuse 0 Connecticut 1
4p: None
Total: Syracuse 0 Connecticut 0
Fourth Down Total: Syracuse 0 Connecticut 1

Total on running plays: Syracuse 9 Connecticut 6
Total on passing plays: Syracuse 28 Connecticut 21
Total on plays from scrimmage: Syracuse 37 Connecticut 27

Penalties not tacked on to plays: -8, -5, +7 Syracuse 2 Connecticut 1

Game total when Connecticut had the ball: Syracuse 42 Connecticut 40

Big Plays: 71TD-run, 30-pass, 35-run, 28-pass (4)

Overall Game Total: Syracuse 103 Connecticut 80

Comments: By winning plays, our last two performances have bene our best, (105-72 and 102-80). It’s interesting that Connecticut, thought to be a running team, had only 15 running plays. The Huskies had only four big plays but they mattered. The 71 yard run was to the house and the 35 yard run almost way – and did eventually set up a field goal. The 30 and 28 yard passes we part of their other two scoring drives.

This was a +23 game, (103-80) Since the beginning of the Dino Babers Era, (2016), these are the closest games to this one:
2016 Syracuse 101 Colgate 74 = +27 We won 33-7
2018 Syracuse 109 Connecticut 83 = +26 We won 51-21
2019 Syracuse 104 Liberty 84 = +20 We won 24-0
2021 Syracuse 86 Ohio U. 63 = +23 We won 29-9
2022 Syracuse 89 North Carolina State 65 = +24 We won 24-9
When we get what we wanted in 23 more plays than the opposition, we would win comfortably, noy have to secure an on-sides kick.

 

[SWC75]

TOTALS FOR THE YEAR

When SYRACUSE had the ball:

Drive Starts: 284/11 = S26/816, 237/9 = S26/663, 361/12 = S30/839, 524/14 = S37/876, 344/11 = S 31/756, 305/9 = S34/595, 322/13 = S25/978, 415/13 = S32/885, 321/10 = S32/679, 344/12= SU 29/856 TOTAL: 3,457/114 =S30 with 7,943 yards to go (127 less than the opposition with three more possessions).

KO: 7-0 + 5-1 + 4-0 + 6-1 + 6-1 + 4-1 + 3-0 + 5-1 + 4-2 + 6-2 + 5-0 = 55-9
P: 3-0 + 1-1+ 5-1 + 2-0 + 0-3 + 1-0 + 2-1 + 4-1 + 4-0 + 2-0 + 2-1 = 26-8
FG: 1-0 + 1-1 + 1-0 + 0-3 + 1-0 + 1-1 + 1-1 + 1-0 + 1-0 + 4-0 + 1-2 = 13-8
XP: 5-0 + 4-0 + 3-0 + 6-0 + 5-0 + 3-0 + 1-1 + 4-1 + 4-0 + 3-0 + 3-0 = 41-2
Kicking plays total: 16-0 + 11-3 + 13-1+ 14-4 + 12-4 + 9-2 + 7-3 + 14-3 + 13-2 + 15-2 + 11-3 = 135-27

1r: 7-10 + 5-8 + 5-5 + 13-8 + 9-9 + 8-12 + 4-6 + 10-9 + 7-8 + 11-9 + 5-10 = 84-94
1p: 8-6 + 14-7 + 7-11 + 11-11 + 10-9 + 9-4 + 6-21 + 7-7 + 14-9 + 8-6 + 14-5 = 108-96
First Down Total: 15-16 + 19-15 + 12-16 + 24-19 + 19-18 + 17-16 + 10-27 + 17-16 + 21-17 + 19-15 + 19-15 = 192-190
2r: 3-6 + 9-4 + 1-2 + 6-5 + 8-4 + 3-5 + 6-6 + 5-3 + 2-2 + 8-1 + 8-1 = 59-39
2p: 8-5 + 7-6 + 11-5 + 8-12 + 11-13 + 10-7 + 9-11 + 6-7 + 11-9 + 10-9 + 10-6 = 101-90
Second Down Total: 11-11 + 16-10 + 12-7 + 14-17 + 19-17 + 13-12 + 15-17 + 11-10 + 13-11 + 18-10 + 18-7 = 160-129
3r: 1-1 + 2-2 + 0-0 + 1-1 + 2-1 + 2-0 + 2-3 + 4-1 + 1-1 + 3-2 + 3-1 = 21-13
3p: 8-5 + 7-5 + 4-8 + 8-7 + 10-5 + 7-6 + 4-11 + 4-5 + 3-9 + 6-5 + 6-7 = 67-73
Third Down Total: 9-6 + 9-7 + 4-8 + 9-8 + 12-6 + 9-6 + 6-14 + 8-6 + 4-10 + 9-7 + 9-8 = 88-86
4r: 1-0 + 2-0 + 0-0 + 0-0 + 2-0 + 0-0 + 2-0 + 1-0 + 0-0 + 1-0 + 2-0 = 11-0
4p: 0-0 + 0-0 + 0-0 + 1-1 + 0-0 + 2-1 + 5-2 + 0-0 + 0-3 + 3-0 + 0-1 = 11-8
Fourth Down Total: 1-0 + 2-0 + 0-0 + 1-1 + 2-0 + 2-1 + 7-2 + 1-0 + 0-3 + 4-0 + 2-1 = 22-8

Total on running plays: 12-17 + 18-14 + 6-7 + 20-14 + 21-14 + 13-17 + 14-15 + 20-13 + 10-11 + 23-12 + 18-12 = 175-146
Total on passing plays: 24-16 + 28-18 + 22-24 + 28-31 + 31-27 + 28-18 + 24-45 + 17-19 + 28-30 + 27-20 + 30-19 = 287-267
Total on plays from scrimmage: 36-33 + 46-32 + 28-31 + 48-45 + 52-41 + 41-35 + 38-60 + 37-32 + 38-41+ 50-32 + 48-31= 462-413

Penalties not tacked on to plays: 0-1 + 0-2 + 0-4 + 1-2 + 7-5 + 2-3 + 2-6 + 3-4 + 0-3 + 1-5 + 2-6 = 18-41

Game total when SYRACUSE had the ball: 52-34 + 57-37 + 41-36 + 63-51 + 71-50 + 52-40 + 47-69 + 54-39 + 51-46 + 66-39 + 61-40 = 615-481

Big plays: 6 + 8 + 5 + 8 + 6 + 5 + 6 +7 + 7 + 8 = 66

Comments: You wouldn’t have guessed it but our running game and our passing game both have positive numbers. In fact, our runs are +23, (175-146) and our passes +20, (287-267). Passes have more potential but also more risk. Also, we aren’t getting big plays on defense and special teams due to lack of pressure. We are 88-86 on third down but 22-8 on fourth down. We are 84-94 on first down runs and 59-39 on second down runs. Why not pass on first and run on second?


When OPPONENT had the ball:

Drive Starts: 241/11 = O22/859, 279/10 = O28/721, 310/12 = O26/890, 328/14 = O23/1,072, 401/11 = O36/699 183/8 = O23/617, 321/10 = O32/679, 441/14 = O31.5/959, 234/10 = O23/766, 292/11 = O27/808 TOTAL= 3,030/111 = 027 with 8,070 yards to go, (127 more than SU with three fewer possessions).

KO: 0-6 + 0-5 + 0-5 + 2-1 + 0-7 + 1-3 + 1-7 + 0-6 + 0-6 + 2-3 + 2-3 = 8-52
P: 0-3 + 1-3 + 0-3 + 6-4 + 0-2 + 1-0 + 0-5 + 2-3 + 3-1 + 3-0 + 1-5 = 17-29
FG: 0-3 + 1-0 + 0-4 + 0-0 + 0-2 + 1-1 + 0-2 + 0-1 + 1-0 + 1-1 + 0-1 = 4-15
XP: 0-2 + 0-4 + 0-2 + 0-2 + 0-5 + 0-2 + 0-5 + 0-3 + 0-5 + 0-3 + 0-3 = 0-36
Kicking plays total: 0-14 + 2-12 + 0-14 + 8-7 + 0-16 + 3-6 + 1-19 + 2-13 + 4-12 + 6-7 + 3-12 = 29-132

1r: 8-13 + 6-4 + 8-9 + 11-1 + 7-8 + 9-4 + 4-6 + 11-8 + 11-15 + 6-2 + 4-2 = 85-72
1p: 7-8 + 7-9 + 8-7 + 2-5 + 2-9 + 5-9 + 4-6 + 8-5 + 0-4 + 10-6 + 11-10 = 64-78
First Down Total: 15-21 + 13-13 + 16-16 + 13-6 + 9-17 + 14-13 + 8-12 + 19-13 + 11-19 + 16-8 + 15-12 = 149-150
2r: 1-9 + 4-7 + 5-5 + 1-2 + 5-1 + 1-5 + 3-3 + 4-10 + 6-10 + 4-5 + 4-0 = 38-57
2p: 5-6 + 4-8 + 6-6 + 12-2 + 4-7 + 2-4 + 2-6 + 3-8 + 3-1 + 5-4 + 8-8 = 54-60
Second Down Total: 6-15 + 8-15 + 11-11 + 13-4 + 9-8 + 3-9 + 5-9 + 7-18 + 9-11 + 9-9 + 12-8 = 92-117
3r: 1-2 + 1-4 + 2-1 + 3-1 + 1-0 + 0-0 + 3-0 + 3-4 + 3-3 + 0-2 + 1-3 = 18-20
3p: 5-3 + 5-4 + 6-4 + 9-1 + 3-3 + 4-1 + 3-2 + 3-1 + 6-2 + 5-6 + 9-3 = 58-30
Third Down Total: 6-5 + 6-8 + 8-5 + 12-2 + 4-3 + 4-1 + 6-2 + 6-5 + 9-5 + 5-8 + 10-6 = 76-50
4r: 0-0 + 1-0 + 0-1 + 1-0 + 0-0 + 0-0 + 0-0 + 0-0 + 0-1 + 0-0 + 0-1= 2-3
4p: 0-1 + 0-1 + 0-1 + 0-0 + 0-0 + 0-1 + 0-0 + 0-0 + 0-0 + 0-0 + 0-0 = 0-4
Fourth Down Total: 0-1 + 1-1 + 0-2 + 1-0 + 0-0 + 0-1 + 0-0 + 0-0 + 0-1 + 0-0 + 0-1 = 2-7

Total on running plays: 10-24 + 12-15 + 15-16 + 16-4 + 13-9 + 10-9 + 10-9 + 18-22 + 20-29 + 10-9 + 9-6 = 143-152
Total on passing plays: 17-18 + 16-22 + 20-18 + 23-8 + 9-19 + 11-15 + 9-14 + 14-14 + 9-7 + 20-16 + 28-21 = 176-172
Total on plays from scrimmage: 27-42 + 28-37 + 35-34 + 39-12 + 22-28 + 21-24 +19-23 + 32-36 + 29-36 + 30-25 + 37-27 = 319-324

Penalties not tacked on to plays: 1-3 + 3-1 + 1-7 + 2-1+ 1-1 + 3-5 + 1-1 + 4-3 + 1-1 + 3-1 + 2-1 = 22-25

Game total when OPPONENT had the ball: 28-59 + 33-50 + 36-55 + 49-20 + 23-45 + 27-35 + 21-43 + 38-52 + 34-49 + 39-33 + 42-40 = 370-481

Big Plays: 7 + 9 + 4 + 5 + 5 + 9 + 6 + 4 + 4 = 53

Overall Game Total: 80-93 + 90-87 + 77-91 + 112-71 + 94-95+ 79-75 + 68-112 + 92-91 + 85-95 +105-72 + 103-80 = 985-962

Comments: We’ve lost 481 plays when we had the ball and 481 plays when the opposition had the ball. But we’ve won 615 plays with the ball and only 370 when we didn’t have it. That means we’ve run a lot more plays than they did. Staying on the field, extending and finishing drives – that’s why we are 8-3.



HISTORICAL WINNING PLAYS – The Fran Brown Era

2024
Syracuse 80 Ohio University 93 = -13
Syracuse 90 Georgia Tech 87 = +3
Syracuse 77 Stanford 91 = -14
Syracuse 112 Holy Cross 71 = +41
Syracuse 94 Nevada-Las Vegas 95 = -1
Syracuse 79 North Carolina State 75 = +4
Syracuse 68 Pittsburgh 112 = -44
Syracuse 92 Virginia Tech 91 = +1
Syracuse 85 Boston College 95 = -10
Syracuse 105 California 72 = +33
Syracuse 103 Connecticut 62 = +23
TOTAL: Syracuse: 985 Opponents 962 = +23 We’ve won 6 of 11 games, (54.5%) per ‘winning plays’ (Dino won 39.8%). We have won 50.6% of the 1,947 plays, (Dino Babers won 48.8%). Our team has achieved its goals 23 more plays than the opposition, 2.1 more plays per game.