Winning Plays -Duke | Syracusefan.com

Winning Plays -Duke

SWC75

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This season I will once again be charting Syracuse’s games in terms of “winning plays”. I look at the results of each play and decide which team got the minimum they wanted out of the play. Rather than making instinctive judgments, I use a formula:

- On first down, the offensive team wants to get at least a third of the way to a new first down: they will have two more plays before they might have to surrender the ball and if they gain that same amount of yards on each of those two plays, they’ll get the first down. If they don’t make it a third of the way to a new first down, the defense won the play.
- On second down, the offense wants to get at least halfway to a new first down by the same logic.
- On third and fourth down, they want to get the first down.
- Penalties, if added onto a play by the referees, are added on to the results above. If the offense gains 5 yards on first down but there was holding and they lost yardage instead, the defense won the play. If a running back made a 20 yard run on first and ten and the holding was 15 yards downfield, turning it into a 5 yard gain, that’s still a win for the offense. If the defense is penalized and it’s tacked on, again the net result is what is evaluated. The penalties I’ve listed negated the play entirely and are a “loss” for the penalized team and thus a win for their opponent. .
- If a penalty was not tacked onto a play, it’s a lost play for the team being penalized. I'll count them separate from the other plays from scrimmage because I don't know if the intended play before the penalty would have been a run or a pass - so i wouldn't know where to put it in the chart below.
- A turnover is, obviously, a win for the team that wound up with the ball.
- On a kick-off a touchback brings the ball out to the 25 yard line. Teams still seem to be trying to kick the ball into the end zone and avoid a runback if they can, so any kick-off that results in the receiving team starting between their goal line and their 25 is a win for the kicking team. Beyond that, the receiving team wins.
- On a punt, a touchback takes the ball out of the 20. So any punt that results in the other team taking over from their goal line to their 20 is a win for the punting team. If the next change in field position is at least 40 yards, the punting tam has also won the play.
- A successful place kick is, obviously, a win for the kicking team.
- Any play that results in a touchdown is, obviously, a win for that team that scores it.
- A “victory play” where a team accepts a loss just to let the clock run out, is a win for the offensive team.

I will indicate in parenthesis how many yards there were to go to get a new first down, (if other than 10), unless it was for no gain or negative yardage. If it was a touchdown, (“TD)” a scramble/sack (“S”) a victory play (“V”) or involved a penalty (P). I’ll treat a scramble or a sack as a passing play as the Cuse.com play by play now tells you when it’s either of those two. 1R means first down running plays. 1P means first down passing plays, etc.

When Syracuse had the ball:

KO: Duke 25, Duke 25, Duke 25, Duke 26, Duke 33, Duke 36, Duke 25, Duke 25
Total: Syracuse: 5 Duke: 3
P: 48 to Duke 40, 31 to SU 37, 30 to Duke 23, 33 to Duke 48, 38 to Duke 42, 29 to Duke 16, 39 to Duke 5
Total: Syracuse: 3 Duke: 4
FG: none
Total: Syracuse: 0 Duke: 0
XP: Good, Good, Good, Good, Good, Good, Good, Good
Total: Syracuse: 7 Duke: 0
Kicking plays total: Syracuse: 15 Duke: 7

1r: 5, 1, 6, 35, 1, 15, 5, 3, -2v, 2, 2, 6, 7, 2TD, 6, 1, 4, 28TD, 14, 2, 10
Total: Syracuse: 16 Duke: 7
1p: I, I, I, 4
Total: Syracuse: 1 Duke: 3
First Down Total: Syracuse: 17 Duke: 10
2r: 33(4), 5, 1TD, 6, 1(9), 0, 1(6), 5(8), 1(4), 1(3), 1(4), 37(6), 9(8), 17(1)
Total: Syracuse: 9 Duke: 5
2p: 50(5), 18TD, I, I, I
Total: Syracuse: 2 Duke: 3
Second Down Total: Syracuse: 11 Duke: 8
3r: -1, 0, 5(2), 1(3)
Total: Syracuse: 1 Duke: 3
3p: 4(5), -7s, I, 5, I, 6, 22TD, I
Total: Syracuse: 3 Duke: 5
Third Down Total: Syracuse: 4 Duke: 8
4r: 1(1)
Total: Syracuse: 1 Duke: 0
4p: none
Total: Syracuse: 0 Duke: 0
Fourth Down Total: Syracuse: 1 Duke: 0

Total on running plays: Syracuse: 27 Duke: 15
Total on passing plays: Syracuse: 6 Duke: 11
Total on plays from scrimmage: Syracuse: 33 Duke: 26

Penalties not tacked on to plays: -5 Syracuse: 0 Duke: 1

Game total when Syracuse had the ball: Syracuse: 48 Duke: 34


When Duke had the ball:

KO: SU 17, SU 11, SU 18
Total: Syracuse: 0 Duke: 3
P: 28 to SU 20, 37 to SU 13, 31 to SU 4, 69 to SU 17, 28 to Duke 45, 35 to SU 31
Total: Syracuse: 2 Duke: 4
FG: No Good 44, Good from 31, Good from 51
Total: Syracuse: 1 Duke: 2
XP: none
Total: Syracuse: 0 Duke: 0
Kicking plays total: Syracuse: 3 Duke: 9

1r: -3, 8, 0, 1, 8(15), 0, 2, -3, 2, 4, 1, 4, 3, 7, 12, 3, 2
Total: Syracuse: 11 Duke: 6
1p: 5, 4, 14, 5, 17, I, -4, I, I, 2, I, 4, 4, 13, 0, I, I
Total: Syracuse: 9 Duke: 8
First Down Total: Syracuse: 20 Duke: 14
2r: 10(5), 6(2), 5, 2, 0, 7, 3, 3(6), 3(6), 8(6), 1197), 5, 2(3), 0, 5(8)
Total: Syracuse: 4 Duke: 11
2p: 25(13), I, I, -6(s), I, -5(s), 17(14), I, I, 3, I, Interception -TD
Total: Syracuse: 10 Duke: 2
Second Down Total: Syracuse: 14 Duke: 13
3r: 3(15), -1, 11(5), 2(3), Fumble, 1(3), -2, 3(3)
Total: Syracuse: 6 Duke: 2
3p: 11(6), 9(), I, 10(6), I, 4(13), -4(s), I, I, Interception, I, I
Total: Syracuse: 9 Duke: 3
Third Down Total: Syracuse: 15 Duke: 5
4r: 1
Total: Syracuse: 1 Duke: 0
4p: 1495), -4(s), I
Total: Syracuse: 2 Duke: 1
Fourth Down Total: Syracuse: 3 Duke: 1

Total on running plays: Syracuse: 22 Duke: 19
Total on passing plays: Syracuse: 30 Duke: 14
Total on plays from scrimmage: Syracuse: 52 Duke: 33

Penalties not tacked on to plays: -5, -5, -5, -5, +4, +15 Syracuse: 4 Duke: 2

Game total when Duke had the ball: Syracuse: 59 Duke: 44

Overall Game Total: Syracuse: 107 Duke: 78

Comments: On of the big stats in this game was that we had a single penalty that negated or prevented a play: one five yarder, a false start in the first quarter. Moe Neal’s 35 yard run to the pylon occurred on the next play. We had a degree of focus that was absent in previous games and we didn’t dig holes for ourselves that we had to keep crawling out of. Everything was positive momentum. Duke on the other hand had four such penalties, which is the sort of thing we’ve bene doing all season.

It just wasn’t a day to pass the ball: the two defenses won pass plays 41-20. We had only 17 pass attempts and scored 49 points. Of course being +3 and 21-0 on turnovers helped, too.

It also wasn’t a day for kicking. The two teams went 24-10 on kicks (.706). On the season SU and our opponents were 237-47 coming in (.835). SU had 14 possessions, (aside for the pick 6), and our average starting positon was its 31, with 960 yards to go. Duke had the ball 15 times, with an average starting position at their 27 with 1, 089 yards to go, an advantage of 119 yards for Syracuse, mostly thanks to the turnovers.

Duke XP: none. No comment needed there.


GAME BY GAME and TOTALS FOR THE YEAR

When SYRACUSE had the ball:

KO: 4-0 + 4-0 + 3-0 + 7-1 + 4-1 + 1-2 + 5-0 + 3-1 + 5-0 + 5-3 = 41-8
P: 6-0 + 3-2 + 9-0 + 5-0 + 5-0 + 4-3 + 6-1 + 5-1 + 4-0 + 3-4 = 50-11
FG: 1-0 + 0-0 + 2-0 + 1-0 + 2-0 + 1-1 + 2-1 + 1-1 + 2-0 + 0-0 = 12-3
XP: 3-0 + 2-1 + 0-0 + 7-0 + 5-0 + 1-0 + 2-0 + 2-0 + 3-0 + 7-0 = 32-1
Kicking plays total: 14-0 + 9-3 + 14-0 + 20-1 + 16-1 + 7-6 + 15-2 + 11-3 + 14-0 + 15-7 = 135-23

1r: 5-13 + 8-3 + 4-7 + 9-16 + 8-5 + 2-11 + 5-8 + 8-13 + 6-7 + 16-7 = 71-90
1p: 3-8 + 10-10 + 6-9 + 6-5 + 7-9 + 11-8 + 3-17 + 5-7 + 8-9 + 1-3 = 60-85
First Down Total: 8-21 + 18-13 + 10-16 +15-21 + 15-14 + 13-19 + 8-25 + 13-20 + 14-16 + 17-10 = 131-175
2r: 10-1 + 3-4 + 5-8 + 5-7+ 7-5 + 4-7 + 0-2 + 6-5 + 2-9 + 9-5 = 51-53
2p: 6-10 + 6-8 + 2-8 + 11-6 + 8-4 + 8-6 + 11-13 + 7-9 + 7-6 + 2-3 = 68-73
Second Down Total: 16-11 + 9-12 + 7-16 + 16-13 + 15-9 + 12-13 + 11-15 + 13-14 + 9-15 + 11-8 = 119-126
3r: 5-5 + 3-4 + 2-5 + 3-3 + 2-3 + 2-2 + 1-1 + 4-2 + 2-5 + 1-3 = 25-33
3p: 4-5 + 2-5 + 2-10 + 5-5 + 3-8 + 3-9 + 5-10 + 8-9 + 5-5 + 3-5 = 40-71
Third Down Total: 9-10 + 5-9 + 4-15 + 8-8 + 5-11 + 5-11 + 6-11 + 12-11 + 7-10 + 4-8 = 65-104
4r: 2-1 + 0-0 + 0-1 + 1-0 + 1-2 + 1-0 + 2-0 + 0-0 + 1-3 + 1-0 = 9-7
4p: 0-1 + 0-3 + 0-2 + 0-0 + 0-0 + 0-1 + 0-0 + 0-1= 1-1 + 0-0 = 1-9
Fourth Down Total: 2-2 + 0-3 + 0-3 + 1-0 + 1-2 + 1-1 + 2-0 + 0-1+ 2-4 + 1-0 = 10-16

Total on running plays: 22-20 + 14-11 + 11-21 +18-26 + 18-15 + 9-20 + 8-11 + 18-20 + 11-24 + 27-15 = 156-183
Total on passing plays: 13-24 + 18-26 + 10-29 + 22-16 + 18-21 + 22-24 + 19-40 + 20-26 + 21-21 + 6-11 = 169-238
Total on plays from scrimmage: 35-44 + 32-37 + 21-50 + 40-42 + 36-36 + 31-44 + 27-51 + 38-46 + 32-45 + 33-26 = 325-421

Penalties not tacked on to plays: 0-4 + 2-4 + 3-4 + 2-6 + 1-3 + 2-7 + 3-5 + 4-6 + 2-4 + 0-1= 19-44

Game total when SYRACUSE had the ball: 49-48 + 43-44 + 38-54 + 62-49 + 53-40 + 40-57 + 45-58 + 53-55 + 48-49 + 48-34 = 479-488


When OPPONENT had the ball:

KO: 0-1 + 4-6 + 0-7 + 2-3 + 1-0 + 0-5 + 0-5 + 0-6 + 1-9 + 0-3 = 8-45
P: 2-6 + 2-1 + 3-3 + 1-3 + 5-5 + 1-4 + 2-5 + 2-3 + 1-2 + 2-4 = 21-36
FG: 0-1 + 0-0 + 1-2 + 0-0 + 0-1 + 0-3 + 0-2 + 0-0 + 0-1 + 1-2 = 2-12
XP: 0-0 + 0-9 + 0-5 + 1-4 + 0-0 + 0-1 + 0-3 + 1-4 + 1-7 + 0-0 = 3-33
Kicking plays total: 2-8 + 6-16 + 4-17 + 4-10 + 6-6 + 1-13 + 2-15 + 3-13 + 3-19 + 3-9 = 34-126

1r: 10-5 + 9-17 + 6-13 + 10-8 + 7-7 + 9-5 + 12-11 + 11-11 + 11-21 + 11-6 = 96-104
1p: 11-8 + 9-7 + 7-8 + 10-7 + 6-4 + 3-12 + 6-6 + 5-8 + 1-4 + 9-8 = 67-72
First Down Total: 21-13 + 18-24 + 13-21 + 20-15 + 13-11 + 12-17 + 18-17 + 16-19 + 12-25 + 20-14 = 163-176
2r: 5-2 + 5-7 + 1-6 + 2-6 + 8-3 + 6-7 + 5-6 + 4-10 + 5-15 + 4-11 = 45-73
2p: 12-6 + 6-7 + 9-7 + 9-7 + 9-3 + 6-1 + 10-5 + 7-6 + 2-2 + 10-2 = 80-46
Second Down Total: 17-8 + 11-14 + 10-13 + 11-13 + 17-6 + 12-8 + 15-11 + 11-16 + 7-17 + 14-13 = 125-119
3r: 5-1 + 0-4 + 1-2 + 2-2 + 3-0 + 1-2 + 1-3 + 1-4 + 5-5 + 6-2 = 25-25
3p: 8-2 + 4-7 + 8-3 + 7-5 + 11-3 + 10-2 + 9-8 + 6-4 + 0-2 + 9-3 = 72-39
Third Down Total: 13-3 + 4-11 + 9-5 + 9-7= 14-3 + 11-4 + 10-11 + 7-8 + 5-7 + 15-5 = 97-64
4r: 0-0 + 0-0 + 0-0 + 2-0 + 0-0 + 0-0 + 0-0 + 0-2 + 0-1 + 1-0 = 3-3
4p: 1-0 + 0-0 + 0-0 + 2-1 + 3-0 + 0-0 + 0-0 + 1-0 + 0-0 + 2-1 = 9-2
Fourth Down Total: 1-0 + 0-0 + 0-0 + 4-1 + 3-0 + 0-0 + 0-0 + 1-2 + 0-1 + 3-1 = 12-5

Total on running plays: 20-8 + 14-28 + 8-21 + 16-16 + 18-10 +16-14 + 18-20 + 16-27 + 21-42 + 22-19 = 169-205
Total on passing plays: 32-16 + 19-21 + 24-18 + 28-20 + 29-10 + 19-15 + 25-19 + 19-18 + 3-8 + 30-14 = 228-159
Total on plays from scrimmage: 52-24 + 33-49 + 32-39 + 44-36 + 47-20 + 35-29 + 43-39 + 35-45 + 24-50 + 52-33 = 397-364

Penalties not tacked on to plays: 1-4 + 0-3 + 3-3 + 3-4 + 4-1 + 2-1 + 2 -2 + 5-2 + 1-1 + 4-2 = 25-23

Game total when OPPONENT had the ball: 55-36 + 39-68 + 39-59 + 51-50 + 57-27 + 38-43 + 47-56 + 43-60 + 28-70 + 59-44 = 456-513

Overall game total: 104-84 + 82-112 + 77-113 + 113-99 + 110-67 + 78-100 + 92-114 + 96-115 +76-119 + 107-78 = 935-1001

Comments: Overall, we are 325-421 on offensive plays from scrimmage, which reflects the problems we’ve had in our offensive line. That’s got to be turned around if we are to make something of this season – and maybe it finally is happening. It may not seem like it but we are actually 397-364 on defensive plays from scrimmage. We are still strong on third and fourth down defense, (109-69) but have lost the knack we had of picking up first downs on such plays on offense, (75-120). We need to avoid having to pass the ball on fourth down (1-9).


HISTORICAL WINNING PLAYS (Babers Era – game totals only)

2016
Syracuse 101 Colgate 74 = +27
Syracuse 99 Louisville 132 = -33
Syracuse 95 South Florida 116 = -21
Syracuse 91 Connecticut 99 = -8
Syracuse 98 Notre Dame 111 = -13
Syracuse 72 Wake Forest 101 = -29
Syracuse 103 Virginia Tech 104 = -1
Syracuse 93 Boston College 84 = +9
Syracuse 74 Clemson 120 = -46
Syracuse 71 North Carolina State 103 = -32
Syracuse 71 Florida State 120 = -49
Syracuse 107 Pittsburgh 118 = -11
TOTAL: Syracuse 1075 Opponent 1282 = -207 We 'won' 2 of 12 games.

2017
Syracuse 132 Central Connecticut 65 = +67
Syracuse 104 Middle Tennessee 98 = +6
Syracuse 107 Central Michigan 100 = +7
Syracuse 80 Louisiana State 103 = -23
Syracuse 93 North Carolina State 112 = -19
Syracuse 97 Pittsburgh 96 = +1
Syracuse 95 Clemson 97= -2
Syracuse 86 Miami 119 = -33
Syracuse 90 Florida State 108 = -18
Syracuse 120 Wake Forest 125 = -5
Syracuse 96 Louisville 100 = -4
Syracuse 77 Boston College 87 = -10
TOTAL: Syracuse 1177 Opponents 1210 = -33 We’ve ‘won’ 4 of12 games

2018
Syracuse 109 Western Michigan 96 = +13
Syracuse 139 Wagner 65 = +74
Syracuse 113 Florida State 77 = +36
Syracuse 109 Connecticut 83 = +26
Syracuse 86 Clemson 102= -16
Syracuse 99 Pittsburgh 97 = +2
Syracuse 113 North Carolina 115 = -2
Syracuse 113 North Carolina State 96 = +17
Syracuse 117 Wake Forest 107 = +10
Syracuse 124 Louisville 83 = +41
Syracuse 86 Notre Dame 99 = -13
Syracuse 110 Boston College 96 = +14
Syracuse 116 West Virginia 79 +37
TOTAL: Syracuse 1434 Opponents 1195 = +239 We ‘won’ 10 of 13 games

2019
Syracuse 104 Liberty 84 = +20
Syracuse 82 Maryland 112 = -30
Syracuse 77 Clemson 113 = -36
Syracuse 113 Western Michigan 99 =+14
Syracuse 110 Holy Cross 67 = +43
Syracuse 78 North Carolina State 100 = -22
Syracuse 92 Pittsburgh 114 = -22
Syracuse 96 Florida State 115 = -19
Syracuse 76 Boston College 119 = -43
Syracuse 107 Duke 78 = +29
Totals since 2016: Syracuse has won 4,621 plays, (49.6%) and 20 games, (42.6%). The opposition has won 4,688 plays and 27 games. They’ve obtained their goals on 67 more plays than we have in 47 games, an average of 1.4 plays a game.
 

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