Winning Plays: Duke

[SWC75]

THE SYSTEM: The offense wins a play if they get a third of the way to a first down on first down, half way to a first down on second down or gets a first down on third or fourth down. Otherwise the defense wins. Any score is a win for the team that scores. Any turnover is a win for the team that winds up with the ball. The kicking team wins a kick-off where the other team winds up with the ball from their own 25 in to their goal line: outside of that and the receiving team won. The kicking team wins any punt that produces a new +40 yard change in the line of scrimmage or forces the other team to begin from their 20 yard line in. Any successful place kick is a win for the kicking team. I’ve put the yards to go in parenthesis if it’s other than 10 yards. Penalties are simply tacked onto the play before the play is evaluated if they didn’t nullify it. If the penalty did nullify the play or was a dead ball foul, it’s listed separately.

When Syracuse had the ball:

KO- DK 10, DK 16, DK 34 SU 2 DK 1
P- 23 to SU 40, 36 to DK 14, 50 to DK 9, 58 to DK 21, 21 to DK 43, 42 to SU 46, TOUCHDOWN, 24 to SU 46, 26 to DK 35 SU 4 DK 5
FG- 27 GOOD SU 1 DK 0
XP- GOOD SU 1 DK 0
Total for kicking game: Syracuse 8 Duke 6

1st rush- -1, 9, 3, 20, 4, 3, 1, 1, 8, 0, 3, 8, 3, 1, 0, -1 SU 6 DK 11
1st pass- I, 3, 7, 2, 9, 0, 0, 3, 9, I SU 3 DK 7
First Down total: Syracuse 9 Duke 18
2nd rush- 2(11), 3(1), 1, 2(6), -1, 6(8), 3(1), 17(7), -3, 8TD, 3, 8 SU 6 DK 6
2nd pass- 9(7), 8(9), 7(9), 4(2), 9(15), -3, I, I, I, 7 SU 12 DK 10
Second Down total: Syracuse 12 Duke 10
3rd run- 3(8), 1(1), 1(12), 10(6), 3(6), 1(2), -2 SU 2 DK 5
3rd pass- I, 14(9), I, 19(5), I, I, I, -12, I SU 2 DK 7
Third Down total: Syracuse 4 Duke 12
4th run- 1(4) SU 0 DK 1
4th pass- I SU 0 DK 1
Fourth Down total: Syracuse 0 Duke 2
Total for plays from scrimmage: Syracuse 25 Duke 42
Running plays: Syracuse 14 Duke 23
Passing plays: Syracuse 11 Duke 19

Penalties (not added on to play): Syracuse 10, 5, 5, 0, (1/2 distance to goal from 1) Duke 15
Turnovers: Interception, Interception
Total for penalties and turnovers: Syracuse 1 Duke 6

Total when Syracuse had the ball: Syracuse 34 Duke 54

When Duke had the ball:

KO- SU 16, SU 25, SU 25, SU 25, SU 25, SU 25 SU 0 DK 6
P- 45 to SU 14, 47 to SU 32, 34 to SU 16, 42 to SU 12, 49 to SU 33, 36 to SU 20, 56 to SU 1
SU 0 DK 7
FG- GOOD from 27, GOOD from 24 SU 0 DK 2
XP- GOOD, GOOD, GOOD SU 0 DK 3
Total for kicking game: Syracuse 0 Duke 18

1st rush- 7, 5, 5, 7, 2, 1, 3, 3, 2, 1, 13, 3, 4, 3, -3v SU 8 DK 7
1st pass- I, I, I, I, I, I, 2, I, 1 SU 9 DK 0
First Down total: Syracuse 17 Duke 7
2nd rush- 5(3), 2, 2(5), 1(15), 1(5), 5, 6, 3(7), 7(7), -2, 2(9), 1(7), 5(6), 4(7), -3v SU 8 OK 6
2nd pass- 1(15), 5(10, 4(8), I, I, I, 5(9) SU 4 DK 3
Second Down total: Syracuse 12 Duke 9
3rd run- 5(3), 1(3), 2(1), -4 SU 2 DK 2
3rd pass- I, 1(4), 13(5), 14(14), 18(4), 22TD, I 17(9), 3(4), I, I, I, I, 54TD SU 8 DK 6
Third Down total: Syracuse 10 Duke 8
4th run- none
4th pass- I SU 1 DK 0
Fourth Down total: Syracuse 1 Duke 0
Total for plays from scrimmage: Syracuse 40 Duke 24
Running plays: Syracuse 18 Duke 15
Passing plays: Syracuse 22 Duke 9

Penalties (not added on to play): Syracuse 5, 5, Duke 5, 5, 5,
Turnovers: Interception
Total for penalties and turnovers: Syracuse 4 Duke 2

Total when Duke had the ball: Syracuse 44 Duke 44

Overall kicking game total: Syracuse 8 Duke 24
Overall plays from scrimmage total: Syracuse 65 Duke 66
Running plays: Syracuse 32 Duke 38
Passing plays: Syracuse 33 Duke 28
Overall penalties and turnovers: Syracuse 5 Duke 8
Game Total: Syracuse 78 Duke 98

Comments: Both defenses dominated. Duke won the game with a dominant kicking game, (0-18), and two passes to a 6-6 guy being covered by a 6-1 guy. It’s interesting that we were fantastic vs. first down passes on defense (9-0) but on third down passes we gave up the touchdowns passes plus other plays of 13, 18 and 17 yards. First down passes tend to be harder to defend because most teams are bracing themselves against the run whereas on third down they expect a pass. Coming into this game our defense was 41-63 on first down passes and 50-28 on third down passes.

 

[SWC75]

TOTALS FOR YEAR

When SU had the ball:

KO- SU 25 OPP 19
P- SU 38 OPP 23
FG- SU 17 OPP 5
XP- SU 18 OPP 2
Total for kicking game: SU 98 OPP 49

1st rush- SU 97 OPP 81
1st pass- SU 43 OPP 60
First Down total: SU 140 OPP 151
2nd rush- SU 55 OPP 51
2nd pass- SU 50 OPP 69
Second Down total: SU 105 OPP 120
3rd run- SU 21 OPP 24
3rd pass- SU 33 OPP 74
Third Down total: SU 54 OPP 98
4th run- SU 4 OPP 2
4th pass-SU 2 OPP 4
Fourth Down total: SU 6 OPP 6
Total for plays from scrimmage: SU 305 OPP 375
Running plays: SU 177 OPP 168
Passing plays: SU 128 OPP 207

Penalties (not added onto play): SU 14 OPP 37 (penalties by the other team that each team benefited by)
Turnovers (by SU): SU 0 OPP 16
Total for penalties and turnovers: SU 14 OPP 53

Total when Syracuse had the ball: SU 417 OPP 477


When the Opposition had the Ball:

KO- SU 8 OPP 42
P- SU 15 OPP 41
FG- SU 2 OPP 16
XP- SU 1 OPP 24
Total for kicking game: SU 26 OPP 123

1st rush- SU 103 OPP 88
1st pass- SU 50 OPP 63
First Down total: SU 153 OPP 151
2nd rush- SU 48 OPP 66
2nd pass- SU 54 OPP 61
Second Down total: SU 102 OPP 127
3rd run- SU 25 OPP 31
3rd pass- SU 58 OPP 34
Third Down total: SU 83 OPP 65
4th run- SU 2 OPP 2
4th pass-SU 3 OPP 1
Fourth Down total: SU 5 OPP 3
Total for plays from scrimmage: SU 343 OPP 346
Running plays: SU 178 OPP 187
Passing plays: SU 165 OPP 159

Penalties (not added on to play): SU 36 OPP 19 (penalties by the other team that each team benefited by)
Turnovers: SU (got) 18 SU 17 OPP 0
Total for penalties and turnovers: SU 54 OPP 19

Total when the opposition had the ball: SU 423 OPP 488

Overall kicking game total: SU 124 OPP 172
Overall plays from scrimmage total: SU 648 OPP 721
Running plays: SU 355 OPP 355
Passing plays: SU 293 OPP 366
Overall penalties and turnovers: SU 68 OPP 72
Game Total: Syracuse 840 Opposition 965

Comments: I think the way to look at this is not as a percentage, (We have been successful in 840 of 1805 plays: 46.5%. But you could the view the difference as if the other team was running extra plays we didn’t get to run that were successful. The opposition has had 125 more successful plays than we have, an average of 12.5 per game. That’s really quite a difference.

SEASON SUMMARY

VILLANOVA SU scrimmage: 29-36 VIL scrimmage: 40-46 Kicking: 17-11 PEN/TO: 5-10 Total: 91-103
C. MICHIGAN SU scrimmage: 41-36 CM scrimmage: 36-22 Kicking: 14-13 PEN/TO: 8-5 Total: 99-76
MARYLAND SU scrimmage: 41-34 MD scrimmage: 30-27 Kicking: 14-21 PEN/TO: 6-9 Total: 91-91
NOTRE DAME SU scrimmage: 29-37 ND scrimmage: 22-51 Kicking: 8-18 PEN/TO: 12-8 Total: 71-114
LOUISVILLE SU scrimmage: 23-37 LOU scrimmage: 30-37 Kicking: 9-21 PEN/TO: 9-5 Total: 71-100
FLORIDA STATE SU scrimmage: 34-31 FS scrimmage: 27-45 Kicking: 11-15 PEN/TO: 8-10 Total: 80-101
WAKE FOREST SU scrimmage: 32-36 FS scrimmage: 36-21 Kicking: 15-15 PEN/TO: 3-5 Total: 86-77
CLEMSON SU scrimmage: 19-41 FS scrimmage: 37-41 Kicking: 14-15 PEN/TO: 5-5 Total: 75-102
NC STATE SU scrimmage: 32-45 FS scrimmage: 39-29 Kicking: 14-20 PEN/TO: 7-7 Total: 92-101
DUKE SU scrimmage: 25-42 FS scrimmage: 40-24 Kicking: 8-24 PEN/TO: 5-8 Total: 78-98

Comment: We don’t have as much talent as Notre Dame, Louisville, Florida State or Clemson but hung in there for most of those games anyway. We didn’t play well vs. Villanova, who is a very good FCS team. We have comparable talent to Maryland and NC State but didn’t play as well on those days. I think we were also comparable to Duke except we couldn’t match their superb kicking game. We were better than Central Michigan and Wake Forest. Of course you knew that but there it is in the numbers.

 

[SWC75]

I noted that against Louisville, both teams had 14 possessions and we had a combined 1,025 yards to go to score vs. 871 for Louisville. That to me was 154 yards of “hidden offense” the Cardinals didn’t have to generate to score. I decided to keep track of that stat for all the games this season:

Syracuse 9 possessions with 714 yards to go (average 79) Villanova 9/706 (78). +8 hidden yards for Villanova
Syracuse 11/746 (68) Central Michigan 11/865 (79) +119 hidden yards for Syracuse
Syracuse 13/1072 (82) Maryland 14/903 (64.5) +169 hidden yards for Maryland
Syracuse 12/909 (76) Notre Dame 13/930 (72) +21 hidden yards for Syracuse but +4 per possession for Notre Dame
Syracuse 14/1025 (73) Louisville 14/871 (62) +154 hidden yards for Louisville
Syracuse 11/711 (65) Florida State 11/748 (68) +37 hidden yards for Syracuse
Syracuse 12/918 (76.5) Wake Forest 13/913 (70) +5 hidden yards for Wake Forest but +6.5 per possession.
Syracuse 15/1092 (72.8) Clemson 15/976 (65.1)+116 hidden yards for Clemson
Syracuse 15/1122 (74.8) NC State 14/1009 (72.1) +113 hidden yards for NC State
Syracuse 15/1137 (75.8) Duke 14/897 (64.1) +240 hidden yards for Duke

Overall, we’ve had 127 possessions with a total of 9,446 yards to go, an average of 74. The opposition has had 128 possessions with a total of 8,818 yards to go, an average of 69. In the six games where there was a significant difference, the team with the big advantage won all of them by an average of 18 points. It may not be the only reason they won or won by that margin, but I’m sure it helped.

I’ve also been comparing the number of plays run from scrimmage to time of possession. (I realize that TOP includes plays that weren’t runs and passes from scrimmage but I’m assuming the time of such plays will be about equal for both teams). The Daily Orange preview handed out before the Villanova game says the goal of both offensive coordinator George MacDonald and quarterback coach Tim Lester was to get off plays in an average of 18 seconds and to get off 3.33 plays per minute. In 2013 Syracuse got off 2.42 plays per minute. The fastest team in the country was Texas Tech at 3.08 plays per minute, (there was no quote on seconds per play).

Syracuse 69 plays in 22:12, Villanova 87 plays in 37:48
That means that we got off a play every 19.30 seconds and 3.11 plays per minute. Villanova got off a play 26.1 seconds and 2.30 plays per minute. But they got off 18 more plays than we did.
Syracuse 79 plays in 33:22, Central Michigan 68 plays in 26:18
We: 25.34 seconds/play and 2.37 plays per minute. They: 23.21 seconds/play and 2.55 plays per minute. But we got off 11 more plays.
Syracuse 79 plays in 32:14, Maryland 58 plays in 27:46
We: 24.48 seconds/play and 2.45 plays per minute. They: 28.72 seconds/ play and 2.09 plays per minute.
Syracuse 68 plays in 26:43, Notre Dame 80 plays in 33:17
We: 23.57 seconds/play and 2.55 plays per minute. They: 24.96 seconds/play and 2.40 plays per minute. But they got off 12 more plays.
Syracuse: 62 plays in 23:02, Louisville 70 plays in 36:58
We: 22.29 seconds/play and 2.69 plays per minute. They: 31.69 seconds/play and 1.89 plays per minute. But they got off 8 more plays.
Syracuse: 67 plays in 23:33, Florida State 72 plays in 36:27
We: 21.09 seconds/play and 2.85 plays per minute. They: 30.38 seconds per play and 1.98 plays per minute. But they got off five more plays.
Syracuse: 70 plays in 31:47, Wake Forest 59 plays in 28:13
We: 27.24 seconds per pay and 2.20 plays per minute. They: 28.69 seconds per play and 2.09 plays per minute. Neither team was playing hurry-up.
Syracuse 62 plays in 25:06, Clemson 83 plays in 34:54
We: 24.29 seconds per play and 2.47 plays per minute. They: 25.22 seconds per play and 2.38 seconds per play. Clemson played normally in the first half, sped things up in the third quarter and then slowed it back down in the fourth quarter.
Syracuse 68 plays in 31:18, NC State 79 plays in 28:43
We: 27.61 seconds per play and 2.17 plays per minute. They: 21.81 seconds per play and 2.75 plays per minute.
Syracuse 69 plays in 30:31, Duke 66 plays in 29:29
We: 26.54 second per play and 2.30 plays per minute. They: 26.80 second per play and 2.24 plays per minute.

Total: Syracuse 693 plays in 279.50, Opposition: 702 plays in 319:53
We: 24.23 seconds/play and 2.48 plays per minute. They: 27.34 seconds per play and 2.19 plays per minute.

It may be that MacDonald and Lester were eliminating the time taken on kicking plays, (which is included in time of possession), so we might be closer to our goals than it appears. But it’s clear that the speed with which you get plays off does little to determine whether you win the game. It doesn’t even determine which team gets off more plays. What matters is how many successful plays you run and how many first downs you get. You aren’t going to wear teams out by hurriedly running plays that don’t work. At this point we seem to have given up on exhausting teams with our pace, (and trapping them in the same defensive packages with no time to change them).