Winning Plays- Flordia State

[SWC75]

This season I will once again be charting Syracuse’s games in terms of “winning plays”. I look at the results of each play and decide which team got the minimum they wanted out of the play. Rather than making instinctive judgments, I use a formula:

- On first down, the offensive team wants to get at least a third of the way to a new first down: they will have two more plays before they might have to surrender the ball and if they gain that same amount of yards on each of those two plays, they’ll get the first down. If they don’t make it a third of the way to a new first down, the defense won the play.
- On second down, the offense wants to get at least halfway to a new first down by the same logic.
- On third and fourth down, they want to get the first down.
- Penalties, if added onto a play by the referees, are added on to the results above. If the offense gains 5 yards on first down but there was holding and they lost yardage instead, the defense won the play. If a running back made a 20 yard run on first and ten and the holding was 15 yards downfield, turning it into a 5 yard gain, that’s still a win for the offense. If the defense is penalized and it’s tacked on, again the net result is what is evaluated. The penalties I’ve listed negated the play entirely and are a “loss” for the penalized team and thus a win for their opponent. .
- If a penalty was not tacked onto a play, it’s a lost play for the team being penalized. I'll count them separate from the other plays from scrimmage because I don't know if the intended play before the penalty would have been a run or a pass - so i wouldn't know where to put it in the chart below.
- A turnover is, obviously, a win for the team that wound up with the ball.
- On a kick-off a touchback brings the ball out to the 25 yard line. Teams still seem to be trying to kick the ball into the end zone and avoid a runback if they can, so any kick-off that results in the receiving team starting between their goal line and their 25 is a win for the kicking team. Beyond that, the receiving team wins.
- On a punt, a touchback takes the ball out of the 20. So any punt that results in the other team taking over from their goal line to their 20 is a win for the punting team. If the next change in field position is at least 40 yards, the punting tam has also won the play.
- A successful place kick is, obviously, a win for the kicking team.
- Any play that results in a touchdown is, obviously, a win for that team that scores it.
- A “victory play” where a team accepts a loss just to let the clock run out, is a win for the offensive team.

I will indicate in parenthesis how many yards there were to go to get a new first down, (if other than 10), unless it was for no gain or negative yardage. If it was a touchdown, (“TD)” a scramble/sack (“S”) a victory play (“V”) or involved a penalty (P). I’ll treat a scramble or a sack as a passing play as the Cuse.com play by play now tells you when it’s either of those two. 1R means first down running plays. 1P means first down passing plays, etc.

When Syracuse had the ball:

KO: FS 25, SU 41, FS 25, FS 25
Total: Syracuse 3 Florida State 1
P: 41 to FS 40, 35 to FS 28, 51 to FS 22, 51 to FS 2, 34 to FS 15, 42 to FS 27
Total: Syracuse 5 Florida State 1
FG: Good from 50, No Good from 46
Total: Syracuse 1 Florida State 1
XP: Good, Good
Total: Syracuse 2 Florida State 0
Kicking plays total: Syracuse 11 Florida State 3

1r: -1, 1, 3, 2, 2, 2, 4, 1, 2, 8, 4, 8, 1, -8, 5, 2TD, 2, 2, 20, -1, 1TD
Total: Syracuse 8 Florida State 13
1p: -8(s), 8, 4, 5(s), I, -2(s), I, 3(s), 6, I, 13(5), -21(s,p)
Total: Syracuse 5 Florida State 7
First Down Total: Syracuse 13 Florida State 20
2r: 6(7), 5(8), 6(8), 0, 1(6), -1, 10(6), 7, 16(2), 8(18), 2
Total: Syracuse 6 Florida State 5
2p: 3(18), 7(11), I, I, I, 6(s), 2(5), 3(12), 4, 5(s), 1(8), 8(9), 4(5,s), 5(8), 20(31p-FD), I
Total: Syracuse 7 Florida State 9
Second Down Total: Syracuse 13 Florida State 14
3r: 2(2), 3(7), 3(1), 1, 9(3), 25(21)
Total: Syracuse 4 Florida State 2
3p: -1(s), I, -2(s), I, I, -4(s), 10(8), 19(3), I, 9(9), I, 5, 16(6), 23(3), I, 14, 18 (s)
Total: Syracuse 8 Florida State 9
Third Down Total: Syracuse 12 Florida State 11
4r: none
Total: Syracuse 0 Florida State 0
4p: -1(s)
Total: Syracuse 0 Florida State 1
Fourth Down Total: Syracuse 0 Florida State 1

Total on running plays: Syracuse 18 Florida State 20
Total on passing plays: Syracuse 20 Florida State 26
Total on plays from scrimmage: Syracuse 38 Florida State 46

Penalties not tacked on to plays: +5, -5, +5, -5, +15, -5, +5, -5, -5 Syracuse 4 Florida State 6

Game total when Syracuse had the ball: Syracuse 53 Florida State 55


When Florida State had the ball:

KO: SU 25, SU 25, SU 25, SU 25, SU 25, SU 25
Total: Syracuse 0 Florida State 6
P: 40 to 50, 43 to SU 3, 41 to FS 42, 30 to SU 24, 33 to SU 28
Total: Syracuse 2 Florida State 3
FG: none
Total: Syracuse 0 Florida State 0
XP: Blocked, Good, 2pt Good, Good, Good
Total: Syracuse 1 Florida State 4
Kicking plays total: Syracuse 3 Florida State 13

1r: 23TD, 9, 7, 3, 0, 0, -9, -1, 2, 3, 12(15), 7TD, 15(15), 7, 27, 1(6), 4, 2, 3, 4, 4, -5
Total: Syracuse 11 Florida State 11
1p: I, 30(15), 8, 7, 19, 10, 22, I, I, I, I, 5, 29
Total: Syracuse 5 Florida State 8
First Down Total: Syracuse 16 Florida State 19
2r: 5, 11(3), 3(1), 3, 5(7), 6TD, 1, -7(p), 6, 3(5), 11(6), 4(7), 0, 5(6)
Total: Syracuse 4 Florida State 10
2p: 13(p), 16(3), I, 7, -8, -9(s), I, 13, 14(3), 5(4), I, I, I
Total: Syracuse 7 Florida State 6
Second Down Total: Syracuse 11 Florida State 16
3r: 10(3), 7(27), 2(2), 4(3), 13(6)
Total: Syracuse 1 Florida State 4
3p: 7(5), I, 9(11), -4(s), 54, 8(s), 30(p), I, 3(5), 2(13s)
Total: Syracuse 6 Florida State 4
Third Down Total: Syracuse 7 Florida State 8
4r: 3(2), 2TD
Total: Syracuse 0 Florida State 2
4p: I
Total: Syracuse 1 Florida State 0
Fourth Down Total: Syracuse 1 Florida State 2

Total on running plays: Syracuse 16 Florida State 27
Total on passing plays: Syracuse 19 Florida State 18
Total on plays from scrimmage: Syracuse 35 Florida State 45

Penalties not tacked on to plays: -5, -1, +2, -5, -5, -5, +5 Syracuse 5 Florida State 2

Game total when Florida State had the ball: Syracuse 43 Florida State 60

Overall Game Total: Syracuse 96 Florida State 115


Comments: We were defeated in 7 of our first 8 first down runs but won 7 of our last 12. Same thing with third down passes: we lost our first 6 of such plays, then won 8 of the last 11. FSU won their first 3 first down runs. Then we stopped them 6 times in a row, ending with halftime. Unfortunately, they won their first 5 first down runs of the second half. We won 3 of the last 4 but by then it was too late. They destroyed us with first down passes in the first half. After an incompletion on the first such play, they then gained 96 yards on the next six passes. Then we stopped them four times in a row but were already way behind.

Our once-normal advent age in the kicking game was absent again, (11-3 when we kicked: 3-13 when they kicked). We did have a slight field position advent age, starting, on average, at our 29 while they started on their 26. Each team had 12 possessions. We had a total of 848 yards to go while they had 889, a hidden offense of 41 yards for us.

If the last three games seem like a broken record, it’s reflected in the stats. We’ve been out-scored 9-58 in the first half and have out-score the opponent 38-24 in the second half. The “winning plays” totals have been 78-100, 92-114 and 96-115.

 

[SWC75]

GAME BY GAME and TOTALS FOR THE YEAR

When SYRACUSE had the ball:

KO: 4-0 + 4-0 + 3-0 + 7-1 + 4-1 + 1-2 + 5-0 + 3-1= 31-5
P: 6-0 + 3-2 + 9-0 + 5-0 + 5-0 + 4-3 + 6-1 + 5-1= 43-7
FG: 1-0 + 0-0 + 2-0 + 1-0 + 2-0 + 1-1 + 2-1 + 1-1= 10-3
XP: 3-0 + 2-1 + 0-0 + 7-0 + 5-0 + 1-0 + 2-0 + 2-0 = 22-1
Kicking plays total: 14-0 + 9-3 + 14-0 + 20-1 + 16-1 + 7-6 + 15-2 + 11-3= 106-16

1r: 5-13 + 8-3 + 4-7 + 9-16 + 8-5 + 2-11 + 5-8 + 8-13= 49-76
1p: 3-8 + 10-10 + 6-9 + 6-5 + 7-9 + 11-8 + 3-17 + 5-7= 51-73
First Down Total: 8-21 + 18-13 + 10-16 +15-21 + 15-14 + 13-19 + 8-25 + 13-20 = 100-149
2r: 10-1 + 3-4 + 5-8 + 5-7+ 7-5 + 4-7 + 0-2 + 6-5 = 40-39
2p: 6-10 + 6-8 + 2-8 + 11-6 + 8-4 + 8-6 + 11-13 + 7-9 = 59-64
Second Down Total: 16-11 + 9-12 + 7-16 + 16-13 + 15-9 + 12-13 + 11-15 + 13-14 = 99-103
3r: 5-5 + 3-4 + 2-5 + 3-3 + 2-3 + 2-2 + 1-1 + 4-2 = 22-25
3p: 4-5 + 2-5 + 2-10 + 5-5 + 3-8 + 3-9 + 5-10 + 8-9 = 32-61
Third Down Total: 9-10 + 5-9 + 4-15 + 8-8 + 5-11 + 5-11 + 6-11 + 12-11 = 54-86
4r: 2-1 + 0-0 + 0-1 + 1-0 + 1-2 + 1-0 + 2-0 + 0-0 = 7-4
4p: 0-1 + 0-3 + 0-2 + 0-0 + 0-0 + 0-1 + 0-0 + 0-1= 0-8
Fourth Down Total: 2-2 + 0-3 + 0-3 + 1-0 + 1-2 + 1-1 + 2-0 + 0-1= 7-12

Total on running plays: 22-20 + 14-11 + 11-21 +18-26 + 18-15 + 9-20 + 8-11 + 18-20 = 118-144
Total on passing plays: 13-24 + 18-26 + 10-29 + 22-16 + 18-21 + 22-24 + 19-40 + 20-26 = 142-206
Total on plays from scrimmage: 35-44 + 32-37 + 21-50 + 40-42 + 36-36 + 31-44 + 27-51 + 38-46 = 260-350

Penalties not tacked on to plays: 0-4 + 2-4 + 3-4 + 2-6 + 1-3 + 2-7 + 3-5 + 4-6 = 17-39

Game total when SYRACUSE had the ball: 49-48 + 43-44 + 38-54 + 62-49 + 53-40 + 40-57 + 45-58 + 53-55 = 383-405


When OPPONENT had the ball:

KO: 0-1 + 4-6 + 0-7 + 2-3 + 1-0 + 0-5 + 0-5 + 0-6 = 7-33
P: 2-6 + 2-1 + 3-3 + 1-3 + 5-5 + 1-4 + 2-5 + 2-3 = 18-30
FG: 0-1 + 0-0 + 1-2 + 0-0 + 0-1 + 0-3 + 0-2 + 0-0 = 1-9
XP: 0-0 + 0-9 + 0-5 + 1-4 + 0-0 + 0-1 + 0-3 + 1-4 = 2-26
Kicking plays total: 2-8 + 6-16 + 4-17 + 4-10 + 6-6 + 1-13 + 2-15 + 3-13 = 28-98

1r: 10-5 + 9-17 + 6-13 + 10-8 + 7-7 + 9-5 + 12-11 + 11-11= 74-77
1p: 11-8 + 9-7 + 7-8 + 10-7 + 6-4 + 3-12 + 6-6 + 5-8 = 57-60
First Down Total: 21-13 + 18-24 + 13-21 + 20-15 + 13-11 + 12-17 + 18-17 + 16-19 = 131-137
2r: 5-2 + 5-7 + 1-6 + 2-6 + 8-3 + 6-7 + 5-6 + 4-10 = 36-47
2p: 12-6 + 6-7 + 9-7 + 9-7 + 9-3 + 6-1 + 10-5 + 7-6 = 68-42
Second Down Total: 17-8 + 11-14 + 10-13 + 11-13 + 17-6 + 12-8 + 15-11 + 11-16 = 104-89
3r: 5-1 + 0-4 + 1-2 + 2-2 + 3-0 + 1-2 + 1-3 + 1-4 = 14-18
3p: 8-2 + 4-7 + 8-3 + 7-5 + 11-3 + 10-2 + 9-8 + 6-4 = 63-34
Third Down Total: 13-3 + 4-11 + 9-5 + 9-7= 14-3 + 11-4 + 10-11 + 7-8 = 77-52
4r: 0-0 + 0-0 + 0-0 + 2-0 + 0-0 + 0-0 + 0-0 + 0-2 = 2-2
4p: 1-0 + 0-0 + 0-0 + 2-1 + 3-0 + 0-0 + 0-0 + 1-0 = 7-1
Fourth Down Total: 1-0 + 0-0 + 0-0 + 4-1 + 3-0 + 0-0 + 0-0 + 1-2 = 9-3

Total on running plays: 20-8 + 14-28 + 8-21 + 16-16 + 18-10 +16-14 + 18-20 + 16-27 = 126-144
Total on passing plays: 32-16 + 19-21 + 24-18 + 28-20 + 29-10 + 19-15 + 25-19 + 19-18 = 195-137
Total on plays from scrimmage: 52-24 + 33-49 + 32-39 + 44-36 + 47-20 + 35-29 + 43-39 + 35-45 = 321-281

Penalties not tacked on to plays: 1-4 + 0-3 + 3-3 + 3-4 + 4-1 + 2-1 + 2 -2 + 5-2 = 20-20

Game total when OPPONENT had the ball: 55-36 + 39-68 + 39-59 + 51-50 + 57-27 + 38-43 + 47-56 + 43-60 = 369-399

Overall game total: 104-84 + 82-112 + 77-113 + 113-99 + 110-67 + 78-100 + 92-114 + 96-115= 752-804

Comments: Overall, we are 260-350 on offensive plays from scrimmage, which reflects the problems we’ve had in our offensive line. That’s got to be turned around if we are to make something of this season. It may not seem like it but we are actually 321-281 on defensive plays from scrimmage. We are still strong on third and fourth down defense, (86-55) but have lost the knack we had of picking up first downs on such plays on offense, (61-98)

HISTORICAL WINNING PLAYS (Babers Era – game totals only)

2016
Syracuse 101 Colgate 74 = +27
Syracuse 99 Louisville 132 = -33
Syracuse 95 South Florida 116 = -21
Syracuse 91 Connecticut 99 = -8
Syracuse 98 Notre Dame 111 = -13
Syracuse 72 Wake Forest 101 = -29
Syracuse 103 Virginia Tech 104 = -1
Syracuse 93 Boston College 84 = +9
Syracuse 74 Clemson 120 = -46
Syracuse 71 North Carolina State 103 = -32
Syracuse 71 Florida State 120 = -49
Syracuse 107 Pittsburgh 118 = -11
TOTAL: Syracuse 1075 Opponent 1282 = -207 We 'won' 2 of 12 games.

2017
Syracuse 132 Central Connecticut 65 = +67
Syracuse 104 Middle Tennessee 98 = +6
Syracuse 107 Central Michigan 100 = +7
Syracuse 80 Louisiana State 103 = -23
Syracuse 93 North Carolina State 112 = -19
Syracuse 97 Pittsburgh 96 = +1
Syracuse 95 Clemson 97= -2
Syracuse 86 Miami 119 = -33
Syracuse 90 Florida State 108 = -18
Syracuse 120 Wake Forest 125 = -5
Syracuse 96 Louisville 100 = -4
Syracuse 77 Boston College 87 = -10
TOTAL: Syracuse 1177 Opponents 1210 = -33 We’ve ‘won’ 4 of12 games

2018
Syracuse 109 Western Michigan 96 = +13
Syracuse 139 Wagner 65 = +74
Syracuse 113 Florida State 77 = +36
Syracuse 109 Connecticut 83 = +26
Syracuse 86 Clemson 102= -16
Syracuse 99 Pittsburgh 97 = +2
Syracuse 113 North Carolina 115 = -2
Syracuse 113 North Carolina State 96 = +17
Syracuse 117 Wake Forest 107 = +10
Syracuse 124 Louisville 83 = +41
Syracuse 86 Notre Dame 99 = -13
Syracuse 110 Boston College 96 = +14
Syracuse 116 West Virginia 79 +37
TOTAL: Syracuse 1434 Opponents 1195 = +239 We ‘won’ 10 of 13 games

2019
Syracuse 104 Liberty 84 = +20
Syracuse 82 Maryland 112 = -30
Syracuse 77 Clemson 113 = -36
Syracuse 113 Western Michigan 99 =+14
Syracuse 110 Holy Cross 67 = +43
Syracuse 78 North Carolina State 100 = -22
Syracuse 92 Pittsburgh 114 = -22
Syracuse 96 Florida State 115 = -19
Totals since 2016: Syracuse has won 4,438 plays, (49.7%) and 19 games, (42.2%). The opposition has won 4,491 plays and 26 games. They’ve obtained their goals on 53 more plays than we have in 45 games, an average of 1.2 plays a game.