Winning Plays- Florida State

[SWC75]

This season I will once again be charting Syracuse’s games in terms of “winning plays”. I look at the results of each play and decide which team got the minimum they wanted out of the play. Rather than making instinctive judgments, I use a formula:

- On first down, the offensive team wants to get at least a third of the way to a new first down: they will have two more plays before they might have to surrender the ball and if they gain that same amount of yards on each of those two plays, they’ll get the first down. If they don’t make it a third of the way to a new first down, the defense won the play.
- On second down, the offense wants to get at least halfway to a new first down by the same logic.
- On third and fourth down, they want to get the first down.
- Penalties, if added onto a play by the referees, are added on to the results above. If the offense gains 5 yards on first down but there was holding and they lost yardage instead, the defense won the play. If a running back made a 20 yard run on first and ten and the holding was 15 yards downfield, turning it into a 5 yard gain, that’s still a win for the offense. If the defense is penalized and it’s tacked on, again the net result is what is evaluated. The penalties I’ve listed negated the play entirely and are a “loss” for the penalized team and thus a win for their opponent. .
- If a penalty was not tacked onto a play, it’s a lost play for the team being penalized. I'll count them separate from the other plays from scrimmage because I don't know if the intended play before the penalty would have been a run or a pass - so i wouldn't know where to put it in the chart below.
- A turnover is, obviously, a win for the team that wound up with the ball.
- On a kick-off a touchback brings the ball out to the 25 yard line. Teams still seem to be trying to kick the ball into the end zone and avoid a runback if they can, so any kick-off that results in the receiving team starting between their goal line and their 25 is a win for the kicking team. Beyond that, the receiving team wins.
- On a punt, a touchback takes the ball out of the 20. So any punt that results in the other team taking over from their goal line to their 20 is a win for the punting team. If the next change in field position is at least 40 yards, the punting tam has also won the play.
- A successful place kick is, obviously, a win for the kicking team.
- Any play that results in a touchdown is, obviously, a win for that team that scores it.
- A “victory play” where a team accepts a loss just to let the clock run out, is a win for the offensive team.

I will indicate in parenthesis how many yards there were to go to get a new first down, (if other than 10), unless it was for no gain or negative yardage. If it was a touchdown, (“TD)” a scramble/sack (“S”) a victory play (“V”) or involved a penalty (P). I’ll treat a scramble or a sack as a passing play as the Cuse.com play by play now tells you when it’s either of those two. . 1R means first down running plays. 1P means first down passing plays, etc.

When Syracuse had the ball:

KO: FS 25, FS 15, FS 35, FS 25 FS 8, FS 25, FS 25
Total: Syracuse 6 Florida State 1
P: 35 to FS 29, 53 to FS 4, 46 to FS 14, 19 to FS 20, 49 to SU 30
Total: Syracuse 4 Florida State 1
FG: Good from 22, No Good from 46, Good from 19, Good from 23
Total: Syracuse 3 Florida State 1
XP: Good, Good, Good
Total: Syracuse 3 Florida State 0
Kicking plays total: Syracuse 16 Florida State 3

1r: 6, 2, 4, 2(6), 12, 2, -4, 3, 11, 8, -4, 4, 0, 3, 12, 1, 8, 4(7), 5, 2, 1, 4, 6, 1, 12, 4
Total: Syracuse 13 Florida State 13
1p: 13, 1, 11, I, I, 5, I, 7, 3TD, 23
Total: Syracuse 6 Florida State 4
First Down Total: Syracuse 19 Florida State 17
2r: 4, -1, 1(4), 1, 2(5), 0, 0, 6(5), 8(7), 2(3), 4(9), 2, 13TD
Total: Syracuse 5 Florida State 8
2p: I, I, 29(13), -11s, I, I, I, 16(11), 33, 8(9), 22(2), I, 2(5), I, 3(4)
Total: Syracuse 6 Florida State 9
Second Down Total: Syracuse 11 Florida State 17
3r: -1, 4(14), 12(12), 2(3), 0, 21(14), 0, 6(1), 3TD, 45(1), 3(1)
Total: Syracuse 6 Florida State 5
3p: I, 14(8), 21(7), 12(21)s, -12s, 16(3), 9(8), I, I
Total: Syracuse 4 Florida State 5
Third Down Total: Syracuse 10 Florida State 10
4r: 0
Total: Syracuse 0 Florida State 1
4p: none
Total: Syracuse 0 Florida State 0
Fourth Down Total: Syracuse 0 Florida State 1

Total on running plays: Syracuse 24 Florida State 27
Total on passing plays: Syracuse 16 Florida State 18
Total on plays from scrimmage: Syracuse 40 Florida State 45

Penalties not tacked on to plays: +5, +9, -5, -5, -5, +10, -5, -5 Syracuse 3 Florida State 5

Game total when Syracuse had the ball: Syracuse 59 Florida State 53


When Florida State had the ball:

KO: SU 25, FS 26
Total: Syracuse 1 Florida State 1
P: 43 to SU 30, 30 to SU 20, 59 to SU 23, 28 to SU 43, 42 to SU 45, 35 to SU 32, 37 to SU 38, 39 to SU 43, 32 to SU 15
Total: Syracuse 4 Florida State 5
FG: none attempted
Total: Syracuse 0 Florida State 0
XP: Good
Total: Syracuse 0 Florida State 1
Kicking plays total: Syracuse 5 Florida State 7

1r: 2, 16, 2(15), 3, 7(20), 0, 4, 21, -1
Total: Syracuse 5 Florida State 4
1p: 5, I, 12(5), -8s, I, 0, 3, -5, 25, 11, 9, -9s, I, I, 5(15), I
Total: Syracuse 10 Florida State 6
First Down Total: Syracuse 15 Florida State 10
2r: 0, 3(13), 2(7), 0, 2TD, -1
Total: Syracuse 5 Florida State 1
2p: I, I, I, 1, Interception, 20(18), 16(10), I, 7(15), I, I, 39, 4, 10
Total: Syracuse 10 Florida State 4
Second Down Total: Syracuse 15 Florida State 5
3r: 6(13), 9(10), 17(1), 2(4)
Total: Syracuse 3 Florida State 1
3p: I, I, I, 8(10), I, I, -9s, -6s, I, I
Total: Syracuse 10 Florida State 0
Third Down Total: Syracuse 13 Florida State 1
4r: none
Total: Syracuse 0 Florida State 0
4p: I
Total: Syracuse 1 Florida State 0
Fourth Down Total: Syracuse 1 Florida State 0

Total on running plays: Syracuse 13 Florida State 6
Total on passing plays: Syracuse 31 Florida State 10
Total on plays from scrimmage: Syracuse 44 Florida State 16

Penalties not tacked on to plays: -5, -3, -10, -5, +3, -5 Syracuse 5 Florida State 1

Game total when Florida State had the ball: Syracuse 54 Florida State 24

Overall game total: Syracuse 113 Florida State 77

Comments: - Our advantage in field position held-up: many felt we could not maintain it against FSU’s athletes. Against Western Michigan our average drive started at our 39: theirs started at the 20. We were at total of 299 yards closer to the goal. That’s like 299 yards in hidden offense. Against Wagner it was our 45 vs. their 24 and 461 yards of hidden offense. In this game it was our 39 vs. their 20 and 244 yards of hidden offense. We’re going to win a lot of games if we can maintain this edge.

Our offense was good but our defense was fabulous. We were -5 in offensive plays from scrimmage (40-45) but +28 in defensive plays from scrimmage (44-16). We won only first down passes, (the easiest play from scrimmage to win) and third down runs on offense, which tend to be mostly short yardage situations. But on defense we bested them in first down runs and passes, second down runs and passes and third down runs and passes. And we were an incredible 10-0 in third down passes.

The overall game stats on winning plays vs. the Seminoles since we joined the conference:
2013: 55-104; 2014: 80-101; 2015: 84-100; 2016: 71-120; 2017: 90-108; 2018: 113-77

 

[SWC75]

GAME BY GAME and TOTALS FOR THE YEAR

When SYRACUSE had the ball:

KO: 10-0 + 11-0 + 6-1 = 27-1
P: 4-0 + 1-1 + 4-1 = 9-2
FG: 2-0 + 2-0 + 3-1 = 7-1
XP: 7-0 + 8-0 + 3-0 = 18-0
Kicking plays total: 23-0 + 22-1 + 16-3 = 61-4

1r: 14-16 + 15-7 + 13-13 = 42-36
1p: 3-5 + 9-6 + 6-4 = 18-15
First Down Total: 17-21 + 24-13 + 19-17 = 60-51
2r: 9-6 + 8-5 + 5-8 = 22-19
2p: 5-9 + 5-9 + 6-9 = 16-27
Second Down Total: 14-15 + 13-14 + 11-17 = 38-46
3r: 7-6 + 2-0 + 6-5 = 15-11
3p: 1-4 + 5-6 + 4-5 = 10-15
Third Down Total: 8-10 + 7-6 + 10-10 = 25-26
4r: 2-1 + 1-1 + 0-1 = 3-3
4p: 0-0 + 1-0 + 0-0 = 1-0
Fourth Down Total: 2-1 + 2-1 + 0-1 = 4-3

Total on running plays: 32-29 + 26-13 + 24-27 = 82-69
Total on passing plays: 9-18 + 20-21 + 16-18 = 45-57
Total on plays from scrimmage: 41-47+ 46-34 + 40-45 = 127-126

Penalties not tacked on to plays: 5-2 + 3-5 +3-5 = 11-12

Game total when SYRACUSE had the ball: 69-49 + 71-40 + 59-53 = 199-142


When OPPONENT had the ball:

KO: 6-1 + 3-0 + 1-1 = 10-2
P: 3-2 + 7-1 + 4-5 = 14-8
FG: 1-0 + 0-1 + 0-0 = 1-1
XP: 0-7 + 0-1 + 0-1 = 0-9
Kicking plays total: 10-10 + 10-3 + 5-7 = 25-20

1r: 8-7 + 16-4 + 5-4 = 29-15
1p: 10-11 + 6-3 + 10-6 = 26-20
First Down Total: 18-18 + 22-7 + 15-10 = 55-35
2r: 3-6 + 11-3 + 5-1 = 19-10
2p: 5-3 + 4-6 + 10-4 = 19-13
Second Down Total: 8-9 + 15-9 + 15-5 = 38-23
3r: 1-1 + 3-2 + 3-1 = 7-4
3p: 1-5 + 10-3 + 10-0 = 21-8
Third Down Total: 2-6 + 13-5 + 13-1 = 28-12
4r: 0-0 + 1-1 + 0-0 = 1-1
4p: 1-1 + 0-0 + 1-0 = 2-1
Fourth Down Total: 1-1 + 1-1 + 1-0 = 3-2

Total on running plays: 12-14 + 31-10 + 13-6 = 56-30
Total on passing plays: 17-20 + 20-12 + 31-10 = 68-42
Total on plays from scrimmage: 29-34 + 51-22 + 44-16 = 124-72

Penalties not tacked on to plays: 1-3 + 7-0 + 5-1 = 13-4

Game total when OPPONENT had the ball: 40-47, 68-25, 54-24 = 162-96

Overall Game Total: 109-96 + 139-65 + 113-77 = 361-238

Comment: That Hofrichter kick-off that appeared to go into the end zone but was ruled out of bounds was the first of 28 kickoffs this season which didn’t wind up in our favor, with the opposition being at their own 25 or closer to their goal line. We are 10-2 on the other team’s kicks-offs. That’s a total of 37-3 on kickoffs! Overall we’re 61-4 when we kick the ball and 25-20 when they kick it. The kicking team usually wins these plays. We’ve won 86 of 110 kicking plays in three games, 78%.

Our offense has won one more play than the opposition’s defense has won against them . Wagner ran 6 more successful offensive plays against us that Florida State did.


HISTORICAL WINNING PLAYS
(Game totals only)

2011
Syracuse 101 Wake Forest 87 = +14
Syracuse 92 Rhode Island 65 = +27
Syracuse 75 Southern California 90 = -15
Syracuse 96 Toledo 88 = +8
Syracuse 103 Rutgers 99 = +4
Syracuse 79 Tulane 99 = -20
Syracuse 90 West Virginia 84 = +6
Syracuse 74 Louisville 83 = -9
Syracuse 84 Connecticut 86 = -2
Syracuse 92 South Florida 106 = -14
Syracuse 83 Cincinnati 104 = -21
Syracuse 87 Pittsburgh 93 = -6
TOTAL: Syracuse 1,056 Opponents 1,117 = -61 We 'won' 5 of 12 games.

2012
Syracuse 105 Northwestern 116 = -11
Syracuse 92 Southern California 98 = -6
Syracuse 93 Stony Brook 82 = +11
Syracuse 82 Minnesota 95 = -13
Syracuse 85 Pittsburgh 76 = +9
Syracuse 93 Rutgers 73 = +20
Syracuse 103 Connecticut 70 = +33
Syracuse 115 South Florida 92 = +23
Syracuse 96 Cincinnati 122 = -26
Syracuse 103 Louisville 86 = +17
Syracuse 92 Missouri 98 = -6
Syracuse 98 Temple 81 = -+17
Syracuse 105 West Virginia 82 +23
TOTAL: Syracuse 1,262 Opponents 1,171 = +91 We 'won' 8 of 13 games.

2013
Syracuse 75 Penn State 113 = -38
Syracuse 92 Northwestern 114 - = -22
Syracuse 115 Wagner 52 = +63
Syracuse 107 Tulane 76 = +31
Syracuse 64 Clemson 136 = -72
Syracuse 111 N C State 85 = +26
Syracuse 46 Georgia Tech 113 = -67
Syracuse 108 Wake Forest 81 = +27
Syracuse 92 Maryland 88 = +4
Syracuse 55 Florida State 104 = -49
Syracuse 80 Pittsburgh 96 = -16
Syracuse 100 Boston College 87 = +13
Syracuse 99 Minnesota 79 +20
TOTAL: Syracuse 1,144 Opponents 1,224 = -80 We 'won' 7 of 13 games.

2014
Syracuse 91 Villanova 103 = -12
Syracuse 99 Central Michigan 76 = +23
Syracuse 91 Maryland 91 = 0
Syracuse 71 Notre Dame 114 = -43
Syracuse 71 Louisville 100 = -29
Syracuse 80 Florida State 101 = -21
Syracuse 86 Wake Forest 77 = +9
Syracuse 75 Clemson 102 = -27
Syracuse 92 N C State 101 = -9
Syracuse 78 Duke 98 = -20
Syracuse 46 Pittsburgh 114 = -68
Syracuse 72 Boston College 78 = -6
TOTAL: Syracuse 952 Opponents 1,155 = -203 We 'won' 2 of 12 games, with one even.

2015
Syracuse 96 Rhode Island 56 = +40
Syracuse 83 Wake Forest 83 = 0
Syracuse 84 Central Michigan 91 = -7
Syracuse 84 Louisiana State 89 = -5
Syracuse 80 South Florida 93 = -13
Syracuse 86 Virginia 97 = -11
Syracuse 70 Pittsburgh 89 = -19
Syracuse 84 Florida State 100 = -16
Syracuse 74 Louisville 110 = -36
Syracuse 83 Clemson 105 = -22
Syracuse 78 North Carolina State 100 = -22
Syracuse 89 Boston College 78 = +11
TOTAL: Syracuse 991 Opponents 1091 = -100 We 'won' 2 of 12 games with one even.

2016
Syracuse 101 Colgate 74 = +27
Syracuse 99 Louisville 132 = -33
Syracuse 95 South Florida 116 = -21
Syracuse 91 Connecticut 99 = -8
Syracuse 98 Notre Dame 111 = -13
Syracuse 72 Wake Forest 101 = -29
Syracuse 103 Virginia Tech 104 = -1
Syracuse 93 Boston College 84 = +9
Syracuse 74 Clemson 120 = -46
Syracuse 71 North Carolina State 103 = -32
Syracuse 71 Florida State 120 = -49
Syracuse 107 Pittsburgh 118 = -11
TOTAL: Syracuse 1075 Opponent 1282 = -207 We 'won' 2 of 12 games.

2017
Syracuse 132 Central Connecticut 65 = +67
Syracuse 104 Middle Tennessee 98 = +6
Syracuse 107 Central Michigan 100 = +7
Syracuse 80 Louisiana State 103 = -23
Syracuse 93 North Carolina State 112 = -19
Syracuse 97 Pittsburgh 96 = +1
Syracuse 95 Clemson 97= -2
Syracuse 86 Miami 119 = -33
Syracuse 90 Florida State 108 = -18
Syracuse 120 Wake Forest 125 = -5
Syracuse 96 Louisville 100 = -4
Syracuse 77 Boston College 87 = -10
TOTAL: Syracuse 1177 Opponents 1210 = -33 We’ve ‘won’ 4 of12 games

2018
Syracuse 109 Western Michigan 96 = +13
Syracuse 139 Wagner 65 = +74
Syracuse 113 Florida State 77 = +36 We’ve ‘won’ 3 of 3 games

Totals since 2011: Syracuse has won 8,018 plays, (48.6%) and 32 games, (36.0%). The opposition has won 8,488 plays and 55 games with 2 games even. We’ve seen the opposition obtain their goals on 470 more plays than we have in 89 games, an average of 5.28 plays a game.