Winning Plays - Florida State

[SWC75]

This season I will once again be charting Syracuse’s games in terms of “winning plays”. I look at the results of each play and decide which team got the minimum they wanted out of the play. Rather than making instinctive judgments, I use a formula:

- On first down, the offensive team wants to get at least a third of the way to a new first down: they will have two more plays before they might have to surrender the ball and if they gain that same amount of yards on each of those two plays, they’ll get the first down. If they don’t make it a third of the way to a new first down, the defense won the play.
- On second down, the offense wants to get at least halfway to a new first down by the same logic.
- On third and fourth down, they want to get the first down.
- Penalties, if added onto a play by the referees, are added on to the results above. If the offense gains 5 yards on first down but there was holding and they lost yardage instead, the defense won the play. If a running back made a 20 yard run on first and ten and the holding was 15 yards downfield, turning it into a 5 yard gain, that’s still a win for the offense. If the defense is penalized and it’s tacked on, again the net result is what is evaluated. The penalties I’ve listed negated the play entirely and are a “loss” for the penalized team and thus a win for their opponent. .
- If a penalty was not tacked onto a play, it’s a lost play for the team being penalized. I'll count them separate from the other plays from scrimmage because I don't know if the intended play before the penalty would have been a run or a pass - so i wouldn't know where to put it in the chart below.
- A turnover is, obviously, a win for the team that wound up with the ball.
- On a kick-off a touchback brings the ball out to the 25 yard line. Teams still seem to be trying to kick the ball into the end zone and avoid a runback if they can, so any kick-off that results in the receiving team starting between their goal line and their 25 is a win for the kicking team. Beyond that, the receiving team wins.
- On a punt, a touchback takes the ball out of the 20. So any punt that results in the other team taking over from their goal line to their 20 is a win for the punting team. If the next change in field position is at least 40 yards, the punting tam has also won the play.
- A successful place kick is, obviously, a win for the kicking team.
- Any play that results in a touchdown is, obviously, a win for that team that scores it.
- A “victory play” where a team accepts a loss just to let the clock run out, is a win for the offensive team.

I will indicate in parenthesis how many yards there were to go to get a new first down, (if other than 10), unless it was for no gain or negative yardage. If it was a touchdown, (“TD)” a scramble/sack (“S”) a victory play (“V”) or involved a penalty (P). I’ll treat a scramble or a sack as a passing play as the Cuse.com play by play now tells you when it’s either of those two. 1R means first down running plays. 1P means first down passing plays, etc.

The Florida State game

When Syracuse had the ball:

Drive Starts: SU25, SU26, SU22, SU24, SU33, SU40, SY34, SU26, SU25, FS34, FS49, SU39, FS41, SU28 Average: 498 in 14 possessions = SU36 with 902 yards to go.

KO: FS25, FS25, FS23, FS20, FS35, FS16
Total: Syracuse 5 Florida State 1
P: 36 to FS35, 32 to FS43, 27 to 50, 11 to SU44, 42 to FS34 FUMBLE, 35 to FS21
Total: Syracuse 1 Florida State 5
FG: Good from 24
Total: Syracuse 1 Florida State 0
XP: No Good, Good, Good, Good
Total: Syracuse 3 Florida State 1
Kicking plays total: Syracuse 10 Florida State 7

1r: 4, 20p, 3, 2, 0, 1, 55TD, 10, 16, 5TD, 3, 4, 9, 0, 4, 12, 1TD, 15, 9, 1, 2, 2
Total: Syracuse 13 Florida State 9
1p: -1, 12, 17, 26, I, 24, 9, I
Total: Syracuse 5 Florida State 3
First Down Total: Syracuse 18 Florida State 12
2r: 0, 3(7), 3(8), 3, 0, 3(7), 17(1), 32(6), 2(1), 0, 8(1), 2(8), 11(8), 1(8)
Total: Syracuse 5 Florida State 9
2p: 11(9), 0, I
Total: Syracuse 1 Florida State 2
Second Down Total: Syracuse 6 Florida State 11
3r: 0, 1(4)
Total: Syracuse 0 Florida State 2
3p: 14(4), 3(5), I, I, I, -6(s), 7(8), 26TD, I, I
Total: Syracuse 2 Florida State 8
Third Down Total: Syracuse 2 Florida State 10
4r: -2, 0
Total: Syracuse 0 Florida State 2
4p: Interception
Total: Syracuse 0 Florida State 1
Fourth Down Total: Syracuse 0 Florida State 3

Total on running plays: Syracuse 18 Florida State 22
Total on passing plays: Syracuse 8 Florida State 14
Total on plays from scrimmage: Syracuse 26 Florida State 36

Penalties not tacked on to plays: none Syracuse 0 Florida State 0

Game total when Syracuse had the ball: Syracuse 36 Florida State 43


When Florida State had the ball:

Drive Starts: FS35, FS28, FS43, 50, FS25, FS25, FS23, SU44, FS1, FS20, FS35, FS16, FS21Average: 378 in 13 possessions = FS29 with 922 to go.

KO: SU25, SU26, SU33, SU34, SU25, SU39
Total: Syracuse 4 Florida State 2
P: 41 to SU22, 42 to SU24, 39 to SU40, 44 to SU26, 39 to FS49, 48 to SU28
Total: Syracuse 2 Florida State 4
FG: Good from 25, Good from 34
Total: Syracuse 0 Florida State 2
XP: Bo Good, Good, Good, Good
Total: Syracuse 1 Florida State 3
Kicking plays total: Syracuse 7 Florida State 11

1r: 8, 1, 4, 1, 5, 0, 17, 11, 1, 0, 2, 11(15), 65, 2TD, 1, 7, -3v (to set up filed goal)
Total: Syracuse 7 Florida State 10
1p: 4, 1, 5, 2, -4(p), 5(14), 12, I, 10, 8, 14TD, I, Interception
Total: Syracuse 8 Florida State 7
First Down Total: Syracuse 15 Florida State 17
2r: 10(9), -3, 20, 4(9), 7, 3(8), 4(9), 1(3), 33(5)
Total: Syracuse 5 Florida State 4
2p: 1(2), 4(6), I, I, -10(s), 14TD, 8(5), 5(2), I, I, 3
Total: Syracuse 6 Florida State 5
Second Down Total: Syracuse 11 Florida State 9
3r: 391), 3(11), 8(9), 0, 10(fumble)TD, 4(5), 6(5), 0, 25(7)
Total: Syracuse 5 Florida State 4
3p: I, 4(5), -1(s), I, 12(9), 4(4)
Total: Syracuse 4 Florida State 2
Third Down Total: Syracuse 9 Florida State 6
4r: 2(1)
Total: Syracuse 0 Florida State 1
4p: 4(2)
Total: Syracuse 0 Florida State 1
Fourth Down Total: Syracuse 0 Florida State 2

Total on running plays: Syracuse 17 Florida State 19
Total on passing plays: Syracuse 18 Florida State 15
Total on plays from scrimmage: Syracuse 35 Florida State 34

Penalties not tacked on to plays: +10, +15, -5 Syracuse 1 Florida State 2

Game total when Florida State had the ball: Syracuse 43 Florida State 47

Overall Game Total: Syracuse 79 Florida State 90

Comments: We were 3-14 on offensive plays in the first four possessions, 23-22 on our last ten. We were 18-12 on first down, 8-24 after that. Still, it was a highly competitive game. We were 26-36 on our scrimmage plays after the bad start, and 33-36 defending theirs.

Part of the difference in the overall total is in punting: we were 1-5 when we punted and 2-4 when they did. And the two punts of theirs that we ‘won’ were 39 yard punts to our 40 and their 49. One foot more and we’d have been 0 for 6 under my system. (Hey! it’s not perfect but you’ve got to have some standard.) Strangely, we still started, on average, closer to the goal than they did. It helped that we are now returning kicks. Trebor Pena gained 134 yards on kick returns compared to 54 for the Seminoles’ returners. Against Rutgers we had 0 return yards.

This was a 79-90 game overall, -11. Here are the most similar games of the Dino Babers Era:
2016: Syracuse 91 Connecticut 99 = -8 We won 31-24
2016: Syracuse 98 Notre Dame 111 = -13 We lost 33-50
2016: Syracuse 107 Pittsburgh 118 = -11 We lost 61-76
2017: Syracuse 77 Boston College 87 = -10 We lost 14-42
2018: Syracuse 86 Clemson 102= -16 We lost 23-27
2018: Syracuse 86 Notre Dame 99 = -13 We lost 3-36
2020: Syracuse 78 Pittsburgh 89 = -11 We lost 10-21
2020: Syracuse 77 Liberty 93 = -16 We lost 21-38
Big plays can make a big difference but winning plays matters, too.

 

[SWC75]

GAME BY GAME and TOTALS FOR THE YEAR

When SYRACUSE had the ball:

Drive Starts: 261/9 = S29, 292/13 = S22, 540/14 = S39, 322/12 = S27, 498/14 = S36 Season: 1,913/62 = S31 with 4,287 yards to go, 43 less than the opposition.

KO: 3-3 + 2-0 + 10-0 + 4-0 + 5-1 = 24-4
P: 2-0 + 4-4 + 0-1 + 5-2 + 1-5 = 12-12
FG: 2-0 + 0-1 + 2-0 + 1-1 + 1-0 = 6-2
XP: 3-0 + 1-0 + 8-0 + 3-0 + 3-1 = 18-1
Kicking plays total: 10-3 + 7-5 + 20-1 + 13-3 + 10-7 = 60-19

1r: 16-8 + 5-9 + 12-12 + 15-12 + 13-9 = 61-50
1p: 5-1 + 4-8 + 5-4 + 1-2 + 5-3 = 20-18
First Down Total: 21-9 + 9-17 + 17-16 + 16-14 + 18-12 = 81-68
2r: 10-4 + 3-5 + 8-5 + 13-4 + 5-9 = 39-27
2p: 4-3 + 6-5 + 6-3 + 4-3 + 1-2 = 21-16
Second Down Total: 14-7 + 9-10 + 14-8 + 17-7 + 6-11 = 60-43
3r: 6-0 + 1-1 + 1-1 + 3-4 + 0-2 = 11-8
3p: 2-4 + 2-11 + 3-3 + 1-5 + 2-8 = 10-31
Third Down Total: 8-4 + 3-12 + 4-4 + 4-9 + 2-10 = 21-39
4r: 0-0 + 1-0 + 1-0 + 0-0 + 0-2 = 2-2
4p: 0-0 + 0-0 + 0-0 + 0-0 + 0-1 = 0-1
Fourth Down Total: 0-0 + 1-0 + 1-0 + 0-0 + 0-3 = 2-3

Total on running plays: 32-12 + 10-15 + 22-18 + 31-20 + 18-22 = 113-87
Total on passing plays: 11-8 + 12-24 + 14-10 + 6-10 + 8-14 = 51-66
Total on plays from scrimmage: 43-20 + 22-39 + 36-28 + 37-30 + 26-36 = 164-153

Penalties not tacked on to plays: 0-0 + 0-3 + 1-8 + 1-2 + 0-0 = 2-13

Game total when SYRACUSE had the ball: 53-23 + 29-47 + 57-37 + 51-35 + 36-43 = 226-185


When OPPONENT had the ball:

Drive Starts: 139/8 = O17, 573/14 = 41, 391/14 = O28, 289/12 = O24, 378/13 = O29 Total: 1,770/61 = O29 with 4,330 yards to go, 43 more than Syracuse.

KO: 4-1 + 0-3 + 3-2 + 0-4 + 4-2 = 11-12
P: 1-0 + 0-6 + 5-4 + 0-5 + 2-4 = 8-19
FG: 1-3 + 1-1 + 0-1 + 1-0 + 0-2 = 3-7
XP: 0-0 + 0-2 + 0-3 + 0-3 + 1-3 = 1-11
Kicking plays total: 6-4 + 1-12 + 8-10 + 1-12 + 7-11 = 23-49

1r: 7-9 + 5-12 + 9-3 + 7-8 + 7-10 = 35-42
1p: 5-5 + 5-6 + 7-5 + 6-9 + 8-7 = 31-32
First Down Total: 12-14 + 10-18 + 16-8 + 13-17 + 15-17 = 66-74
2r: 3-9 + 6-6 + 5-1 + 3-9 + 5-4 = 22-29
2p: 5-5 + 3-9 + 7-4 + 3-4 + 6-5 = 24-27
Second Down Total: 8-14 + 9-15 + 12-5 + 6-13 + 11-9 = 46-56
3r: 2-3 + 5-3 + 4-1 + 1-5 + 5-4 = 17-16
3p: 4-3 + 7-0 + 4-4 + 5-0 + 4-2 = 24-9
Third Down Total: 6-6 + 12-3 + 8-5 + 6-5 + 9-6 = 41-25
4r: 0-1 + 1-3 + 0-0 + 1-0 + 0-1 = 2-5
4p: 1-0 + 0-0 + 0-0 + 0-0 + 0-1 = 1-1
Fourth Down Total: 1-1 + 1-3 + 0-0 + 1-0 + 0-2 = 3-6

Total on running plays: 12-22 + 17-24 + 18-5 + 12-22 + 17-19 = 76-92
Total on passing plays: 15-13 + 15-15 + 18-13 + 14-13 + 18-15 = 80-69
Total on plays from scrimmage: 27-35 + 32-39 + 36-18 + 26-35 + 35-34 = 156-161

Penalties not tacked on to plays: 0-1 + 2-3 + 2-4 + 1-1 + 1-2 = 6-11

Game total when OPPONENT had the ball: 33-40 + 35-54 + 46-32 + 28-48 + 41-47 = 185-221

Overall game total: 86-63 + 64-101 + 103-69 + 79-83 + 79-90 = 411-406

Comments: Contrary to perception, we are +41 (226-185) when we have the ball and -36 (185-221) when our opponents have the ball. We’re pretty good on 3rd and 4th down, (especially third down apsses: 24-9), but give up too much on 1st and 2nd down. We also just have 5 takeovers in 5 games after 31, 25 and 24, (total: 80), in the last three years (36 games) and are -1 for the year.

The only offensive play, (other than 4th down passes: the Hail Mary pic was our first one), in which we haven’t at least even is 3rd down passes: we are a dreadful 10-31. Everything else, we’ve been good at. We and our opposition have gained first downs or touchdowns 19 times from 74 third down passes, (26%)


HISTORICAL WINNING PLAYS (Babers Era – game totals only)

2016
Syracuse 101 Colgate 74 = +27
Syracuse 99 Louisville 132 = -33
Syracuse 95 South Florida 116 = -21
Syracuse 91 Connecticut 99 = -8
Syracuse 98 Notre Dame 111 = -13
Syracuse 72 Wake Forest 101 = -29
Syracuse 103 Virginia Tech 104 = -1
Syracuse 93 Boston College 84 = +9
Syracuse 74 Clemson 120 = -46
Syracuse 71 North Carolina State 103 = -32
Syracuse 71 Florida State 120 = -49
Syracuse 107 Pittsburgh 118 = -11
TOTAL: Syracuse 1075 Opponent 1282 = -207 We 'won' 2 of 12 games.

2017
Syracuse 132 Central Connecticut 65 = +67
Syracuse 104 Middle Tennessee 98 = +6
Syracuse 107 Central Michigan 100 = +7
Syracuse 80 Louisiana State 103 = -23
Syracuse 93 North Carolina State 112 = -19
Syracuse 97 Pittsburgh 96 = +1
Syracuse 95 Clemson 97= -2
Syracuse 86 Miami 119 = -33
Syracuse 90 Florida State 108 = -18
Syracuse 120 Wake Forest 125 = -5
Syracuse 96 Louisville 100 = -4
Syracuse 77 Boston College 87 = -10
TOTAL: Syracuse 1177 Opponents 1210 = -33 We ‘won’ 4 of12 games

2018
Syracuse 109 Western Michigan 96 = +13
Syracuse 139 Wagner 65 = +74
Syracuse 113 Florida State 77 = +36
Syracuse 109 Connecticut 83 = +26
Syracuse 86 Clemson 102= -16
Syracuse 99 Pittsburgh 97 = +2
Syracuse 113 North Carolina 115 = -2
Syracuse 113 North Carolina State 96 = +17
Syracuse 117 Wake Forest 107 = +10
Syracuse 124 Louisville 83 = +41
Syracuse 86 Notre Dame 99 = -13
Syracuse 110 Boston College 96 = +14
Syracuse 116 West Virginia 79 +37
TOTAL: Syracuse 1434 Opponents 1195 = +239 We ‘won’ 10 of 13 games

2019
Syracuse 104 Liberty 84 = +20
Syracuse 82 Maryland 112 = -30
Syracuse 77 Clemson 113 = -36
Syracuse 113 Western Michigan 99 =+14
Syracuse 110 Holy Cross 67 = +43
Syracuse 78 North Carolina State 100 = -22
Syracuse 92 Pittsburgh 114 = -22
Syracuse 96 Florida State 115 = -19
Syracuse 76 Boston College 119 = -43
Syracuse 107 Duke 78 = +29
Syracuse 85 Louisville 104 = -19
Syracuse 118 Wake Forest 111 = +7
TOTAL: Syracuse 1138 Opponents 1216 = -78 We ‘won’ 5 of 12 games

2020
Syracuse 70 North Carolina 114 = -44
Syracuse 78 Pittsburgh 89 = -11
Syracuse 108 Georgia Tech 102 = +6
Syracuse 79 Duke 114 = -35
Syracuse 77 Liberty 93 = -16
Syracuse 72 Clemson 112 = -40
Syracuse 76 Wake Forest 99 = -23
Syracuse 68 Boston College 96 = -28
Syracuse 76 Louisville 81 = -5
Syracuse 76 North Carolina State 108 = -32
Syracuse 82 Notre Dame 100 = -18
TOTAL: Syracuse 862 Opponents 1108 = -248 We ‘won’ 1 of 11 games

2021
Syracuse 86 Ohio U. 63 = +23
Syracuse 64 Rutgers 101 = -37
Syracuse 103 Albany 69 = +34
Syracuse 79 Liberty 83 = -4
Syracuse 79 Florida State 90 = -11
TOTAL: Syracuse 411-406 = +5 We’ve won 2 of 5 games

Totals since 2016: Syracuse has won 6,097 plays, (48.7%) and 24 games, (36.9%). The opposition has won 6,417 plays and 41 games. They’ve obtained their goals on 320 more plays than we have in 65 games, an average of 4.9 plays a game.

 

[Dcuse]

I’ve analyzed what you’ve written and I conclude:
Shrader- 269 yards passing and 2 TDs
93 yards rushing and 2 TDs
Tucker- 189 yards rushing and 3TDs

Cuse-59. WF- 14

 

[upperdeck]

I think if just the mad scramble plays were contained you probably take 10+ wining plays away from FSU. he is the QB that gives them hope to win, had we played the other QB we have 7-10 sacks.

 

[SWC75]

I think if just the mad scramble plays were contained you probably take 10+ wining plays away from FSU. he is the QB that gives them hope to win, had we played the other QB we have 7-10 sacks.

Or if they called holding.