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Message: [QUOTE="SWC75, post: 3992011, member: 289"] This season I will once again be charting Syracuse’s games in terms of “winning plays”. I look at the results of each play and decide which team got the minimum they wanted out of the play. Rather than making instinctive judgments, I use a formula: - On first down, the offensive team wants to get at least a third of the way to a new first down: they will have two more plays before they might have to surrender the ball and if they gain that same amount of yards on each of those two plays, they’ll get the first down. If they don’t make it a third of the way to a new first down, the defense won the play. - On second down, the offense wants to get at least halfway to a new first down by the same logic. - On third and fourth down, they want to get the first down. - Penalties, if added onto a play by the referees, are added on to the results above. If the offense gains 5 yards on first down but there was holding and they lost yardage instead, the defense won the play. If a running back made a 20 yard run on first and ten and the holding was 15 yards downfield, turning it into a 5 yard gain, that’s still a win for the offense. If the defense is penalized and it’s tacked on, again the net result is what is evaluated. The penalties I’ve listed negated the play entirely and are a “loss” for the penalized team and thus a win for their opponent. . - If a penalty was not tacked onto a play, it’s a lost play for the team being penalized. I'll count them separate from the other plays from scrimmage because I don't know if the intended play before the penalty would have been a run or a pass - so i wouldn't know where to put it in the chart below. - A turnover is, obviously, a win for the team that wound up with the ball. - On a kick-off a touchback brings the ball out to the 25 yard line. Teams still seem to be trying to kick the ball into the end zone and avoid a runback if they can, so any kick-off that results in the receiving team starting between their goal line and their 25 is a win for the kicking team. Beyond that, the receiving team wins. - On a punt, a touchback takes the ball out of the 20. So any punt that results in the other team taking over from their goal line to their 20 is a win for the punting team. If the next change in field position is at least 40 yards, the punting tam has also won the play. - A successful place kick is, obviously, a win for the kicking team. - Any play that results in a touchdown is, obviously, a win for that team that scores it. - A “victory play” where a team accepts a loss just to let the clock run out, is a win for the offensive team. I will indicate in parenthesis how many yards there were to go to get a new first down, (if other than 10), unless it was for no gain or negative yardage. If it was a touchdown, (“TD)” a scramble/sack (“S”) a victory play (“V”) or involved a penalty (P). I’ll treat a scramble or a sack as a passing play as the Cuse.com play by play now tells you when it’s either of those two. 1R means first down running plays. 1P means first down passing plays, etc. The Florida State game When Syracuse had the ball: Drive Starts: SU25, SU26, SU22, SU24, SU33, SU40, SY34, SU26, SU25, FS34, FS49, SU39, FS41, SU28 Average: 498 in 14 possessions = SU36 with 902 yards to go. KO: FS25, FS25, FS23, FS20, FS35, FS16 Total: Syracuse 5 Florida State 1 P: 36 to FS35, 32 to FS43, 27 to 50, 11 to SU44, 42 to FS34 FUMBLE, 35 to FS21 Total: Syracuse 1 Florida State 5 FG: Good from 24 Total: Syracuse 1 Florida State 0 XP: No Good, Good, Good, Good Total: Syracuse 3 Florida State 1 Kicking plays total: Syracuse 10 Florida State 7 1r: 4, 20p, 3, 2, 0, 1, 55TD, 10, 16, 5TD, 3, 4, 9, 0, 4, 12, 1TD, 15, 9, 1, 2, 2 Total: Syracuse 13 Florida State 9 1p: -1, 12, 17, 26, I, 24, 9, I Total: Syracuse 5 Florida State 3 First Down Total: Syracuse 18 Florida State 12 2r: 0, 3(7), 3(8), 3, 0, 3(7), 17(1), 32(6), 2(1), 0, 8(1), 2(8), 11(8), 1(8) Total: Syracuse 5 Florida State 9 2p: 11(9), 0, I Total: Syracuse 1 Florida State 2 Second Down Total: Syracuse 6 Florida State 11 3r: 0, 1(4) Total: Syracuse 0 Florida State 2 3p: 14(4), 3(5), I, I, I, -6(s), 7(8), 26TD, I, I Total: Syracuse 2 Florida State 8 Third Down Total: Syracuse 2 Florida State 10 4r: -2, 0 Total: Syracuse 0 Florida State 2 4p: Interception Total: Syracuse 0 Florida State 1 Fourth Down Total: Syracuse 0 Florida State 3 Total on running plays: Syracuse 18 Florida State 22 Total on passing plays: Syracuse 8 Florida State 14 Total on plays from scrimmage: Syracuse 26 Florida State 36 Penalties not tacked on to plays: none Syracuse 0 Florida State 0 Game total when Syracuse had the ball: Syracuse 36 Florida State 43 When Florida State had the ball: Drive Starts: FS35, FS28, FS43, 50, FS25, FS25, FS23, SU44, FS1, FS20, FS35, FS16, FS21Average: 378 in 13 possessions = FS29 with 922 to go. KO: SU25, SU26, SU33, SU34, SU25, SU39 Total: Syracuse 4 Florida State 2 P: 41 to SU22, 42 to SU24, 39 to SU40, 44 to SU26, 39 to FS49, 48 to SU28 Total: Syracuse 2 Florida State 4 FG: Good from 25, Good from 34 Total: Syracuse 0 Florida State 2 XP: Bo Good, Good, Good, Good Total: Syracuse 1 Florida State 3 Kicking plays total: Syracuse 7 Florida State 11 1r: 8, 1, 4, 1, 5, 0, 17, 11, 1, 0, 2, 11(15), 65, 2TD, 1, 7, -3v (to set up filed goal) Total: Syracuse 7 Florida State 10 1p: 4, 1, 5, 2, -4(p), 5(14), 12, I, 10, 8, 14TD, I, Interception Total: Syracuse 8 Florida State 7 First Down Total: Syracuse 15 Florida State 17 2r: 10(9), -3, 20, 4(9), 7, 3(8), 4(9), 1(3), 33(5) Total: Syracuse 5 Florida State 4 2p: 1(2), 4(6), I, I, -10(s), 14TD, 8(5), 5(2), I, I, 3 Total: Syracuse 6 Florida State 5 Second Down Total: Syracuse 11 Florida State 9 3r: 391), 3(11), 8(9), 0, 10(fumble)TD, 4(5), 6(5), 0, 25(7) Total: Syracuse 5 Florida State 4 3p: I, 4(5), -1(s), I, 12(9), 4(4) Total: Syracuse 4 Florida State 2 Third Down Total: Syracuse 9 Florida State 6 4r: 2(1) Total: Syracuse 0 Florida State 1 4p: 4(2) Total: Syracuse 0 Florida State 1 Fourth Down Total: Syracuse 0 Florida State 2 Total on running plays: Syracuse 17 Florida State 19 Total on passing plays: Syracuse 18 Florida State 15 Total on plays from scrimmage: Syracuse 35 Florida State 34 Penalties not tacked on to plays: +10, +15, -5 Syracuse 1 Florida State 2 Game total when Florida State had the ball: Syracuse 43 Florida State 47 Overall Game Total: Syracuse 79 Florida State 90 Comments: We were 3-14 on offensive plays in the first four possessions, 23-22 on our last ten. We were 18-12 on first down, 8-24 after that. Still, it was a highly competitive game. We were 26-36 on our scrimmage plays after the bad start, and 33-36 defending theirs. Part of the difference in the overall total is in punting: we were 1-5 when we punted and 2-4 when they did. And the two punts of theirs that we ‘won’ were 39 yard punts to our 40 and their 49. One foot more and we’d have been 0 for 6 under my system. (Hey! it’s not perfect but you’ve got to have some standard.) Strangely, we still started, on average, closer to the goal than they did. It helped that we are now returning kicks. Trebor Pena gained 134 yards on kick returns compared to 54 for the Seminoles’ returners. Against Rutgers we had 0 return yards. This was a 79-90 game overall, -11. Here are the most similar games of the Dino Babers Era: 2016: Syracuse 91 Connecticut 99 = -8 We won 31-24 2016: Syracuse 98 Notre Dame 111 = -13 We lost 33-50 2016: Syracuse 107 Pittsburgh 118 = -11 We lost 61-76 2017: Syracuse 77 Boston College 87 = -10 We lost 14-42 2018: Syracuse 86 Clemson 102= -16 We lost 23-27 2018: Syracuse 86 Notre Dame 99 = -13 We lost 3-36 2020: Syracuse 78 Pittsburgh 89 = -11 We lost 10-21 2020: Syracuse 77 Liberty 93 = -16 We lost 21-38 Big plays can make a big difference but winning plays matters, too. [/QUOTE]

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