SWC75
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This season I will once again be charting Syracuse’s games in terms of “winning plays”. I look at the results of each play and decide which team got the minimum they wanted out of the play. Rather than making instinctive judgments, I use a formula:
- On first down, the offensive team wants to get at least a third of the way to a new first down: they will have two more plays before they might have to surrender the ball and if they gain that same amount of yards on each of those two plays, they’ll get the first down. If they don’t make it a third of the way to a new first down, the defense won the play.
- On second down, the offense wants to get at least halfway to a new first down by the same logic.
- On third and fourth down, they want to get the first down.
- Penalties, if added onto a play by the referees, are added on to the results above. If the offense gains 5 yards on first down but there was holding and they lost yardage instead, the defense won the play. If a running back made a 20 yard run on first and ten and the holding was 15 yards downfield, turning it into a 5 yard gain, that’s still a win for the offense. If the defense is penalized and it’s tacked on, again the net result is what is evaluated. The penalties I’ve listed negated the play entirely and are a “loss” for the penalized team and thus a win for their opponent. .
- If a penalty was not tacked onto a play, it’s a lost play for the team being penalized. I'll count them separate from the other plays from scrimmage because I don't know if the intended play before the penalty would have been a run or a pass - so i wouldn't know where to put it in the chart below.
- A turnover is, obviously, a win for the team that wound up with the ball.
- On a kick-off a touchback brings the ball out to the 25 yard line. Teams still seem to be trying to kick the ball into the end zone and avoid a runback if they can, so any kick-off that results in the receiving team starting between their goal line and their 25 is a win for the kicking team. Beyond that, the receiving team wins.
- On a punt, a touchback takes the ball out of the 20. So any punt that results in the other team taking over from their goal line to their 20 is a win for the punting team. If the next change in field position is at least 40 yards, the punting tam has also won the play.
- A successful place kick is, obviously, a win for the kicking team.
- Any play that results in a touchdown is, obviously, a win for that team that scores it.
- A “victory play” where a team accepts a loss just to let the clock run out, is a win for the offensive team.
I will indicate in parenthesis how many yards there were to go to get a new first down, (if other than 10), unless it was for no gain or negative yardage. If it was a touchdown, (“TD)” a scramble/sack (“S”) a victory play (“V”) or involved a penalty (P). I’ll treat a scramble or a sack as a passing play as the Cuse.com play by play now tells you when it’s either of those two. 1R means first down running plays. 1P means first down passing plays, etc.
When Syracuse had the ball:
Drive Starts: S25, S20, S8, S45, S26, S25, S26, S24, S25, S25, S3, L30 = Average S27 on 12 possessions with 878 yards to go.
KO: L8, L5, L25, L25
Total: Syracuse 4 Liberty 0
P: 43 to L29, 45 to L24, 36 to L23, 48 to l27(p), 46 to L25, 38 to L29, 51 to L27
Total: Syracuse 5 Liberty 2
FG: NG from 52, Good from 35
Total: Syracuse 1 Liberty 1
XP: Good, Good, Good
Total: Syracuse 3 Liberty 0
Kicking plays total: Syracuse 13 Liberty 3
1r: 6, 15, 12, 2, 4, 1, 10, -2, 10, 2, 8, 4, 27TD, 5, 5, 3, 3, 8, -8, 4, 3, 4, -1, 2, 2, 8, -4
Total: Syracuse 15 Liberty 12
1p: I, I, 13
Total: Syracuse 1 Liberty 2
First Down Total: Syracuse 16 Liberty 14
2r: 0, 10, 16(p), 5(6), 6(2), 0, 8(5), 8(7), 17(2p), 19(18), 10TD, 1(7), 12(6), 5(8), 4(8), 1(2), -2
Total: Syracuse 13 Liberty 4
2p: 8, 19(9), 11, 19(18), I, I, I
Total: Syracuse 4 Liberty 3
Second Down Total: Syracuse 17 Liberty 7
3r: -2, 1TD, 0, 6(3), 0, 2(1), 8(16)
Total: Syracuse 3 Liberty 4
3p: I, 794), I, I, I, 7(s)
Total: Syracuse 1 Liberty 5
Third Down Total: Syracuse 4 Liberty 9
4r: none
Total: Syracuse 0 Liberty 0
4p: none
Total: Syracuse 0 Liberty 0
Fourth Down Total: Syracuse 0 Liberty 0
Total on running plays: Syracuse 31 Liberty 20
Total on passing plays: Syracuse 6 Liberty 10
Total on plays from scrimmage: Syracuse 37 Liberty 30
Penalties not tacked on to plays: -5, -4, +10 Syracuse 1 Liberty 2
Game total when Syracuse had the ball: Syracuse 51 Liberty 35
When Liberty had the ball:
Drive Starts: L29, L34, L8, L5, L24, L23, L35, L25, L27, L25, L37, L27= Average: L24 on 12 possessions with 911 yards to go, 33 more than Syracuse
KO: S25, S25, S25, S25
Total: Syracuse 0 Liberty 4
P: 39 to S16(p), 43 to S45, 48 to S26, 45 to S26, 53 to S24
Total: Syracuse 0 Liberty 5
FG: NG from 36
Total: Syracuse 1 Liberty 0
XP: Good, Good, Good
Total: Syracuse 0 Liberty 3
Kicking plays total: Syracuse 1 Liberty 12
1r: 5, 3, 4, 2, 0, 2, 3, 2, 3, 6, 3, 30, 9, 8, 10
Total: Syracuse 7 Liberty 8
1p: I, 13, 3, 23, 22, 25, 7TD, 7, -16, 4, 6, 33TD, I, I, Fumble
Total: Syracuse 6 Liberty 9
First Down Total: Syracuse 13 Liberty 17
2r: 4(5), 26, 4(7), 2(6), 4(7), 7(8), 7(7), &(6), 1(4), 2(40, 2(1), 1(4)
Total: Syracuse 3 Liberty 9
2p: 598), I, -4(s), 6(11), 2(7p), 23TD, 35
Total: Syracuse 3 Liberty 4
Second Down Total: Syracuse 6 Liberty 13
3r: 11(1), 0, 593), 3(1), 5(3), 4920, 1(3)
Total: Syracuse 1 Liberty 5
3p: I, -3(s), -14(s), 1(7), -2(s)
Total: Syracuse 5 Liberty 0
Third Down Total: Syracuse 6 Liberty 5
4r: -1
Total: Syracuse 1 Liberty 0
4p: none
Total: Syracuse 0 Liberty 0
Fourth Down Total: Syracuse 1 Liberty 0
Total on running plays: Syracuse 12 Liberty 22
Total on passing plays: Syracuse 14 Liberty 13
Total on plays from scrimmage: Syracuse 26 Liberty 35
Penalties not tacked on to plays: -5, +5 Syracuse 1 Liberty 1
Game total when Liberty had the ball: Syracuse 28 Liberty 48
Overall Game Total: Syracuse 79 Liberty 83
Comments: I’ve put the SU plays after we scored our third touchdown in italics. To that point we’d won 29 of our 45 plays from scrimmage, including 23 of 33 running plays. In the last five possessions we won 8 of 22 plays and 8 of 18 running plays. Rutgers scored three unanswered touchdowns in that time. Then the third one was reversed, (I still wonder if his hip hit in the end zone before his feet hit out of bounds). Then Hugh Freeze called for three straight runs up the middle. Then we got a strip-sack that was their first turnover all season. Then the offense moved backwards, not forward, until the one good run by Shrader. Then we almost let the clock run out. then Szmyt’s low line drive field goal attempt made it over the crossbar and we won. Don’t say “Hey! This offense works!” This game was more like the 2019 West Virginia game when a loss was turned into a win by a great defensive play. This is not the formula for future wins.
We passed on first down three times and got 13 yards out of it. They passed on first down 15 times and got 135 yards and 2 touchdowns out of that. On third down, Syracuse got a net zero yards in 6 plays and Liberty got -18 in five!
Liberty won their kicking plays 12 out of 13 times but the one loss was critical- that opening field goal from 36 yards: that’s what they lost by.
We won 79 plays and lost 83. That’s a -4 game, (up for grabs). He are the closest games to this one by that measure in the Dino Babers Era:
2016: Syracuse 91 Connecticut 99 = -8 We won 31-24
2016: Syracuse 103 Virginia Tech 104 = -1 We won 31-17
2017: Syracuse 97 Pittsburgh 96 = +1 We won 27-24
2017: Syracuse 95 Clemson 97= -2 We won 27-24
2017: Syracuse 120 Wake Forest 125 = -5 We lost 43-64
2017: Syracuse 96 Louisville 100 = -4 We lost 10-56
2018: Syracuse 113 North Carolina 115 = -2 We won 40-37
2020: Syracuse 76 Louisville 81 = -5 We lost 0-30
2021: Syracuse 79 Liberty 83 = -4 We won 24-21
In 2017 Louisville had 12 plays in which they gained 462 yards and scored 8 touchdowns. But, hey! We won the rest of the game 96-88! Three years later we ran the ball well (14-9 but were 4-16 on passing plays and 1 for 11 on third and fourth down. That North Carolina game was when we fell in love with Tommy DeVito. Remember that?
- On first down, the offensive team wants to get at least a third of the way to a new first down: they will have two more plays before they might have to surrender the ball and if they gain that same amount of yards on each of those two plays, they’ll get the first down. If they don’t make it a third of the way to a new first down, the defense won the play.
- On second down, the offense wants to get at least halfway to a new first down by the same logic.
- On third and fourth down, they want to get the first down.
- Penalties, if added onto a play by the referees, are added on to the results above. If the offense gains 5 yards on first down but there was holding and they lost yardage instead, the defense won the play. If a running back made a 20 yard run on first and ten and the holding was 15 yards downfield, turning it into a 5 yard gain, that’s still a win for the offense. If the defense is penalized and it’s tacked on, again the net result is what is evaluated. The penalties I’ve listed negated the play entirely and are a “loss” for the penalized team and thus a win for their opponent. .
- If a penalty was not tacked onto a play, it’s a lost play for the team being penalized. I'll count them separate from the other plays from scrimmage because I don't know if the intended play before the penalty would have been a run or a pass - so i wouldn't know where to put it in the chart below.
- A turnover is, obviously, a win for the team that wound up with the ball.
- On a kick-off a touchback brings the ball out to the 25 yard line. Teams still seem to be trying to kick the ball into the end zone and avoid a runback if they can, so any kick-off that results in the receiving team starting between their goal line and their 25 is a win for the kicking team. Beyond that, the receiving team wins.
- On a punt, a touchback takes the ball out of the 20. So any punt that results in the other team taking over from their goal line to their 20 is a win for the punting team. If the next change in field position is at least 40 yards, the punting tam has also won the play.
- A successful place kick is, obviously, a win for the kicking team.
- Any play that results in a touchdown is, obviously, a win for that team that scores it.
- A “victory play” where a team accepts a loss just to let the clock run out, is a win for the offensive team.
I will indicate in parenthesis how many yards there were to go to get a new first down, (if other than 10), unless it was for no gain or negative yardage. If it was a touchdown, (“TD)” a scramble/sack (“S”) a victory play (“V”) or involved a penalty (P). I’ll treat a scramble or a sack as a passing play as the Cuse.com play by play now tells you when it’s either of those two. 1R means first down running plays. 1P means first down passing plays, etc.
When Syracuse had the ball:
Drive Starts: S25, S20, S8, S45, S26, S25, S26, S24, S25, S25, S3, L30 = Average S27 on 12 possessions with 878 yards to go.
KO: L8, L5, L25, L25
Total: Syracuse 4 Liberty 0
P: 43 to L29, 45 to L24, 36 to L23, 48 to l27(p), 46 to L25, 38 to L29, 51 to L27
Total: Syracuse 5 Liberty 2
FG: NG from 52, Good from 35
Total: Syracuse 1 Liberty 1
XP: Good, Good, Good
Total: Syracuse 3 Liberty 0
Kicking plays total: Syracuse 13 Liberty 3
1r: 6, 15, 12, 2, 4, 1, 10, -2, 10, 2, 8, 4, 27TD, 5, 5, 3, 3, 8, -8, 4, 3, 4, -1, 2, 2, 8, -4
Total: Syracuse 15 Liberty 12
1p: I, I, 13
Total: Syracuse 1 Liberty 2
First Down Total: Syracuse 16 Liberty 14
2r: 0, 10, 16(p), 5(6), 6(2), 0, 8(5), 8(7), 17(2p), 19(18), 10TD, 1(7), 12(6), 5(8), 4(8), 1(2), -2
Total: Syracuse 13 Liberty 4
2p: 8, 19(9), 11, 19(18), I, I, I
Total: Syracuse 4 Liberty 3
Second Down Total: Syracuse 17 Liberty 7
3r: -2, 1TD, 0, 6(3), 0, 2(1), 8(16)
Total: Syracuse 3 Liberty 4
3p: I, 794), I, I, I, 7(s)
Total: Syracuse 1 Liberty 5
Third Down Total: Syracuse 4 Liberty 9
4r: none
Total: Syracuse 0 Liberty 0
4p: none
Total: Syracuse 0 Liberty 0
Fourth Down Total: Syracuse 0 Liberty 0
Total on running plays: Syracuse 31 Liberty 20
Total on passing plays: Syracuse 6 Liberty 10
Total on plays from scrimmage: Syracuse 37 Liberty 30
Penalties not tacked on to plays: -5, -4, +10 Syracuse 1 Liberty 2
Game total when Syracuse had the ball: Syracuse 51 Liberty 35
When Liberty had the ball:
Drive Starts: L29, L34, L8, L5, L24, L23, L35, L25, L27, L25, L37, L27= Average: L24 on 12 possessions with 911 yards to go, 33 more than Syracuse
KO: S25, S25, S25, S25
Total: Syracuse 0 Liberty 4
P: 39 to S16(p), 43 to S45, 48 to S26, 45 to S26, 53 to S24
Total: Syracuse 0 Liberty 5
FG: NG from 36
Total: Syracuse 1 Liberty 0
XP: Good, Good, Good
Total: Syracuse 0 Liberty 3
Kicking plays total: Syracuse 1 Liberty 12
1r: 5, 3, 4, 2, 0, 2, 3, 2, 3, 6, 3, 30, 9, 8, 10
Total: Syracuse 7 Liberty 8
1p: I, 13, 3, 23, 22, 25, 7TD, 7, -16, 4, 6, 33TD, I, I, Fumble
Total: Syracuse 6 Liberty 9
First Down Total: Syracuse 13 Liberty 17
2r: 4(5), 26, 4(7), 2(6), 4(7), 7(8), 7(7), &(6), 1(4), 2(40, 2(1), 1(4)
Total: Syracuse 3 Liberty 9
2p: 598), I, -4(s), 6(11), 2(7p), 23TD, 35
Total: Syracuse 3 Liberty 4
Second Down Total: Syracuse 6 Liberty 13
3r: 11(1), 0, 593), 3(1), 5(3), 4920, 1(3)
Total: Syracuse 1 Liberty 5
3p: I, -3(s), -14(s), 1(7), -2(s)
Total: Syracuse 5 Liberty 0
Third Down Total: Syracuse 6 Liberty 5
4r: -1
Total: Syracuse 1 Liberty 0
4p: none
Total: Syracuse 0 Liberty 0
Fourth Down Total: Syracuse 1 Liberty 0
Total on running plays: Syracuse 12 Liberty 22
Total on passing plays: Syracuse 14 Liberty 13
Total on plays from scrimmage: Syracuse 26 Liberty 35
Penalties not tacked on to plays: -5, +5 Syracuse 1 Liberty 1
Game total when Liberty had the ball: Syracuse 28 Liberty 48
Overall Game Total: Syracuse 79 Liberty 83
Comments: I’ve put the SU plays after we scored our third touchdown in italics. To that point we’d won 29 of our 45 plays from scrimmage, including 23 of 33 running plays. In the last five possessions we won 8 of 22 plays and 8 of 18 running plays. Rutgers scored three unanswered touchdowns in that time. Then the third one was reversed, (I still wonder if his hip hit in the end zone before his feet hit out of bounds). Then Hugh Freeze called for three straight runs up the middle. Then we got a strip-sack that was their first turnover all season. Then the offense moved backwards, not forward, until the one good run by Shrader. Then we almost let the clock run out. then Szmyt’s low line drive field goal attempt made it over the crossbar and we won. Don’t say “Hey! This offense works!” This game was more like the 2019 West Virginia game when a loss was turned into a win by a great defensive play. This is not the formula for future wins.
We passed on first down three times and got 13 yards out of it. They passed on first down 15 times and got 135 yards and 2 touchdowns out of that. On third down, Syracuse got a net zero yards in 6 plays and Liberty got -18 in five!
Liberty won their kicking plays 12 out of 13 times but the one loss was critical- that opening field goal from 36 yards: that’s what they lost by.
We won 79 plays and lost 83. That’s a -4 game, (up for grabs). He are the closest games to this one by that measure in the Dino Babers Era:
2016: Syracuse 91 Connecticut 99 = -8 We won 31-24
2016: Syracuse 103 Virginia Tech 104 = -1 We won 31-17
2017: Syracuse 97 Pittsburgh 96 = +1 We won 27-24
2017: Syracuse 95 Clemson 97= -2 We won 27-24
2017: Syracuse 120 Wake Forest 125 = -5 We lost 43-64
2017: Syracuse 96 Louisville 100 = -4 We lost 10-56
2018: Syracuse 113 North Carolina 115 = -2 We won 40-37
2020: Syracuse 76 Louisville 81 = -5 We lost 0-30
2021: Syracuse 79 Liberty 83 = -4 We won 24-21
In 2017 Louisville had 12 plays in which they gained 462 yards and scored 8 touchdowns. But, hey! We won the rest of the game 96-88! Three years later we ran the ball well (14-9 but were 4-16 on passing plays and 1 for 11 on third and fourth down. That North Carolina game was when we fell in love with Tommy DeVito. Remember that?