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Message: [QUOTE="SWC75, post: 1875972, member: 289"] This season I will once again be charting Syracuse’s games in terms of “winning plays”. I look at the results of each play and decide which team got the minimum they wanted out of the play. Rather than making instinctive judgements, I use a formula: - On first down, the offensive team wants to get at least a third of the way to a new first down: they will have two more games before they might have to surrender the ball and if they gain that same amount of yards on each of those two plays, they’ll get the first down. If they don’t make it a third of the way to a new first down, the defense won the play. - On second down, the offense wants to get halfway to a new first down by the same logic. - On third and fourth down, they want to get the new first down. - Penalties, if added onto a play by the referees, are added on to the results above. If the offense gains 5 yards on first down but there was holding and they lost yardage instead, the defense won the play. If a running back made a 20 yard run on first and ten and the holding was 15 yards downfield, turning it into a 5 yard gain, that’s still a win for the offense. If the defense is penalized and it’s tacked on, again the net result is what is evaluated. - If a penalty was not tacked onto a play, it’s a lost play for the team being penalized. I'll count them separate from the other plays from scrimmage because I don't know if the intended play before the penalty would have been a run or a pass - so i wouldn't know where to put it in the chart below. - A turnover is, obviously, a win for the team that wound up with the ball. - On a kick-off a touchback brings the ball out to the 25 yard line. Teams still seem to be trying to kick the ball into the end zone and avoid a runback if they can, so any kick-off that results in the receiving team starting between their goal line and their 25 is a win for the kicking team. - On a punt, a touchback takes the ball out of the 20. So any punt that results in the other team taking over from their goal line to their 20 is a win for the punting team. If the next change in field position is at least 40 yards, the punting tam has also won the play. - A successful place kick is, obviously a win for the kicking team. - Any play that results in a touchdown is, obviously, a win for that team that scores it. - A “victory play” where a team accepts a loss just to let the clock run out, is a win for the offensive team. I will indicate in parenthesis how many yards there were to go to get a new first down, (if other than 10), unless it was for no gain or negative yardage. If it was a touchdown, (“TD)” a sack (“S”) a victory play (“V”) or involved a penalty (P). 1R means first down running plays. 1P means first down passing plays, etc. When SYRACUSE had the ball: KO: L28, L14, L22, L25 Total: Syracuse 3 Louisville 1 P: 40 to L25, 43 to L28, 25 to 32, 33 to L20, 54 to L18, 30 to L21, 50 to L15, 61 to L18, 42 to L33, 34 to L49, 25 to SU40, 59 to 44 Total: Syracuse 8 Louisville 4 FG: No Good (55) Total: Syracuse 0 Louisville 1 XP: Good, Good, Good, Good Total: Syracuse 4 Louisville 0 Kicking plays total: Syracuse 15 Louisville 6 1r: 1, 2, 5, 12, 0, -1, 3, 2, 5, 1(5), -1, -1, 17, 1TD, -1, Fumble, 3, 29 Total: Syracuse 6 Louisville 12 1p: 8, I, 10, 6, 5, I, I, -1, I, 32, 8, I, I, I, 9, I, I, 3, 1 15 Total: Syracuse 8 Louisville 12 First Down Total: Syracuse 14 Louisville 24 2r: 16(8), 3(4), 2(5), -1, 1(11), -1, 9(15), 0, 9, 3(9), 9(11), 1(7) Total: Syracuse 5 Louisville 7 2p: -8S, 2(9), 7, I, I, -8S, I 22(11), I, I, 47TD, 10(2), 2, I, I, I, I, 18(11), 5(1), 9, -8S Total: Syracuse 8 Louisville13 Second Down Total: Syracuse 13 Louisville 20 3r: 0, 3,(1), 8, 3(8), 10, 9(6), 2(2) Total: Syracuse 6 Louisville 1 3p: I, 6(3), 15TD, 4, +15P, I, 18, I, 23, 4TD, I, -12S, I, Interception, I Total: Syracuse 6 Louisville 9 Third Down Total: Syracuse 12 Louisville 10 4r: none Total: Syracuse 0 Louisville 0 4p: I Total: Syracuse 0 Louisville 1 Fourth Down Total: Syracuse 0 Louisville 1 Total on running plays: Syracuse 17 Louisville 20 Total on passing plays: Syracuse 22 Louisville 35 Total on plays from scrimmage: Syracuse 39 Louisville 55 Penalties not tacked on to plays: -5, +5, +15, -5, +15, -5 Syracuse 3 Louisville 3 Game total when SYRACUSE had the ball: Syracuse 57 Louisville 64 Comment: 2/3 of our first down runs were stuffed. We are upset at the running attack but we were 17-20 on runs and only 22-35 on passes. Louisville gave us three first downs on penalties, (I thought it was more- they said 5 on the radio). Louisville won 59% of our plays from scrimmage, so we were not a very efficient offensive team despite the production, (414 yards and 28 points). It makes you wonder what they could accomplish when they are efficient. It’s been pointed out that all the Louisville ‘cramps’ seemed to come when Syracuse had the ball and was moving it. Syracuse had five “explosive”, (20+ yards) plays, the longest the 47 yard catch and run by AET. When LOUISVILLE had the ball: KO: SU35P, SU26, SU25, SU16, SU21, SU21, SU20, SU23, SU21, SU23 Total: Syracuse 2 Louisville 8 P: 47 to SU39, 37 to SU 38, 44 to SU21, 53 to SU 32, 41 to SU 26, 48 to SU 7 Total: Syracuse 1 Louisville 5 FG: No Good from 28, Good from 26, Good from 41 Total: Syracuse 1 Louisville 2 XP: Good, Good, Good, Good, Good, Good, Good, Good Total: Syracuse 0 Louisville 8 Kicking plays total: Syracuse 4 Louisville 23 1r: 7, 7TD, 72TD, 9, 13TD, 4, 3, 4, 5, 5, 9TD, 30, 0, 21TD, -6, 20, 3, 75(14), 13, 3, 48TD, 30TD, 1, 5, 7 Total: Syracuse 6 Louisville 20 1p: 72TD, 55, I, I, 16, 12, I, 12, -8S, I, 23, 17, Interception, 20, 2, 32, I Total: Syracuse 8 Louisville 9 First Down Total: Syracuse 14 Louisville 29 2r: -9P, 29, 7, 9(18), 7, 2(3), -2, 11(9), -4, 0 Total: Syracuse 4 Louisville 6 2p: 61, I, I, Fumble, 16, 8,(5), I, 11, I, I, I, 0 Total: Syracuse 8 Louisville 4 Second Down Total: Syracuse 12 Louisville 10 3r: 50(18), 9(7), 1(1), o Total: Syracuse 1 Louisville 3 3p: I, 9(6), I, Fumble, 28(9), P, I, I, I, 2(11), I, 20(13) Total: Syracuse 8 Louisville 3 Third Down Total: Syracuse 9 Louisville 6 4r: none Total: Syracuse 0 Louisville 0 4p: none Total: Syracuse 0 Louisville 0 Fourth Down Total: Syracuse 0 Louisville 0 Total on running plays: Syracuse 11 Louisville 29 Total on passing plays: Syracuse 24 Louisville 16 Total on plays from scrimmage: Syracuse 24 Louisville 16 Penalties not tacked on to plays: -15, -5, -5 Syracuse 3 Louisville 0 Game total when LOUISVILLE had the ball: Syracuse 99 Louisville 132 Comment: Louisville gained 845 yards, 191 more than the previous record given up by an SU defense, (West Virginia, 1993). We did manage to win 35 of 80 plays from scrimmage, 44%, better than the offense did. Some of that was Louisville drops, (which is why we “won” the pass plays, 24-16). The problem is, too many of the plays we lost wound up far downfield. They had 13 explosive plays, five of them longer than SU’s most explosive play: a 50 yard run, a 55 yard pass, a 61 yard pass and a 72 yard run and 72 yard pass. Without the drops, turnovers and penalties they might have gained 1000 yards and scored 80 points – or more. [/QUOTE]

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