Winning Plays- Louisville

[SWC75]

Once again I’m going to chart our football games according to which team “won” each play. The idea is that you ask yourself what was the minimum acceptable result the team with the ball wanted and then, if they achieved at least that result, they “won” the play. If they didn’t, the other team “won” the play. I break down the results by the circumstances of the play: first down ruins, first down passes, same for second down, third down and fourth down. Then I look at each kicking play, penalties, turnovers, etc. The result is a total that shows if a team won by dominating play after play or by getting the big plays- turnovers, long gains, kick returns, blocked kicks, etc. it gives you a view of how the game was physically. It also gives you an idea of what areas we need to improve our recruiting. If we are losing a majority of the plays, look to the line of scrimmage. If we are not getting the big plays, look to the playmakers and the coach’s philosophy. The break-out allows us to see how we did in certain situations, such as first downs runs or passes.

Here is the scoring system I’ve been using: On a play from scrimmage, the team with the ball is trying to either get a first down or a touchdown, (the latter being the only goal if it is a “goal to go” situation). If they get 1/3 of the way to those goals, (rounding the goal up), on first down they have “won the play because if they gained that amount of yardage three times in a row, they’d keep the ball for another series of down or they’d score. On second down they want to get halfway to their goal. On third or fourth down, they want to obtain the goal because if they don’t, they’d have to surrender the ball or settle for a lesser goal, (a field goal instead of a touchdown). If the offense doesn’t win the play, then the defense won the play.

On place kicks, it’s simple: if the kicking team scored the field the field goal or extra point, they won the play. On kick-offs, since touchbacks go out to the 25, any kickoff that ends with the receiving team having the ball no farther in than the 25 yards line is a win for the kicking team. Anything beyond that is a win for the receiving team. On a punt, the touchback comes out to the 20 so any punt that results in the other team getting the ball no further rout than their 20 is a win for the punting team. Also, any punt that gains the kicking at least 40 yards in field positon is a win for them. I’m not interested in how far the punt travels. I’m interested in where the other team will star their next play. Kick-offs after a safety will be judged as if they were punts. You want to get the ball at least a net 40 yards downfield. Ifg it’s within the 25, you obviously did that.

Turnovers are, obviously wins for the defense. This year I’ve decided to list them under the circumstances of the play, that is if it was a second down running play and there is a fumble, I’ll put “fumble” under “2R”, rather than listing it on a separate line under turnovers. It will be a lost play of the offense counted under second down running plays.

Sacks are counted as passing plays. “Victory” plays are wins for the team with the ball because they are just trying to get the clock moving so it will run out.

Penalties will be counted as plays under the circumstances of the play. If they negate a play or are tacked onto it, it’s part of the result of the play. A gain negated by an offside penalty is a -5 play. A 20 yard run turned into a 10 yard loss by a clip is a -10 play7. If you jump offside on second down and they blow the play dead, I’ll assume it was a passing play if it was at least second and five unless the play-by play says otherwise. Within 5 yards, I’ll assume it was a running play. If it was first down, I’ll assume a run, third or fourth down I’ll assume a pass, again unless it says otherwise. If it was a penalty not associated with a play, (unsportsmanlike conduct, etc. I’ll list it using the same assumptions about down and distance.

Beginning with the FLORIDA STATE game, I’m making one change in my evaluation of a winning play. If a team punts in the opposition’s territory, they are clearly looking to pin them down near their goal line and would at a touchback as a failure so a punt that produces a net change of less than 30 yards and results in a touchback will be a lost play. I’m not going to look back through all the plays in the other games I’ve analyzed and redo them but from now on less than thirty yards with a touchback is a lost play.

Glossary:

KICKS
KO = Kickoffs I’ll just list where the ball wound up, unless it was a TD or turnover.
P = Punts. I’ll list the net distance and where the ball wound up, unless it was a TD or turnover.
FG= Field Goal attempts. I’ll list the distance and ‘G’ (good) or ‘NG” (no good)
XP= Extra Points. Just G or NG unless it’s not from the normal distance due to a penalty. The penalty will be listed as a separate attempt (-5, -10, -15, etc) and lost paly for the kicking team.

SCRIMMAGE PLAYS
I’ll list the yardage gained or lost and put the yards needed for a first down or touchdown in parenthesis if other than 10, unless there is no gain or a loss, which would be a win for the defesne regardless of the yardage needed..
1r = First down rushing play.
1p= First down passing play.
Same for second down, (2r, 2p), third down (3r,3p) and fourth down (4r,4p)
I = Incomplete pass
INT = interception
FUM = fumble
TD = touchdown
P = penalty
S = sack
V= “Victory” play

When SYRACUSE had the ball:

KO: LOU 25, LOU 24, LOU 25, LOU 16
Total: Syracuse 4 Louisville 0
P: 34 (LOU 42), 42 (SU 48), 42 (LOU 11), 40 (LOU40), 47 (LOU 31), 45 (LOU18), 52 LOU 28), 45 (LOU 40)-FUM
Total: Syracuse 7 Louisville 1
FG: 36 GOOD, 53 NO GOOD
Total: Syracuse 1 Louisville 1
XP: GOOD, GOOD
Total: Syracuse 2 Louisville 0

Kicking plays total: Syracuse 14 Louisville 2

1r 2, 3, 3, 3, 2, 1, 2, 9, 2, -5P, 2, 4, 0, FUM, 4, -1
Total: Syracuse 3 Louisville 13
1p 36, I, I, 4, I, I, 17, 8, I, -5P, 3(15), 4, I
Total: Syracuse 5 Louisville 8
First Down Total: Syracuse 8 Louisville 21
2r 10TD, -1, 1(7), 7(8), 7(8), 1(6), 1, 2, 16(12), 0
Total: Syracuse 4 Louisville 6
2p -3S, 8(7), I, I, 9(10), INT-TD, I, I, I, 8(10), +18P, INT, -3, 14(6), I
Total: Syracuse 5 Louisville 10
Second Down Total: Syracuse 9 Louisville 16
3r 10(11), 5(1), 1, 3(1), -3, -2, -6
Total: Syracuse 2 Louisville 5
3p 3(11), 22(8), -5P, 5(20), 5(6), 30(8), I, 8(9), I, -7S, I
Total: Syracuse 2 Louisville 11
Third Down Total: Syracuse 4 Louisville 16
4r 3(2)
Total: Syracuse 1 Louisville 0
4p -1, +4P(auto 1st), 9TD
Total: Syracuse 2 Louisville 1
Fourth Down Total: Syracuse 3 Louisville 1

Total on running plays: Syracuse 10 Louisville 24
Total on passing plays: Syracuse 14 Louisville 30
Total on plays from scrimmage: Syracuse 24 Louisville 54

Game total when SYRACUSE had the ball: Syracuse 38 Louisville 56


When LOUISVILLE had the ball:

KO: SU 22, SU 41, SU 25x, SU 28, SU 40, SU 25
Total: Syracuse 4 Louisville 3
P: 47 (SU 20), 40 (SU 15), 39 (SU 13), 33 (SU 14)
Total: Syracuse 0 Louisville 4
FG: 19 GOOD, 26 GOOD
Total: Syracuse 0 Louisville 2
XP: GOOD, GOOD, GOOD, GOOD, GOOD
Total: Syracuse 0 Louisville 5

Kicking plays total: Syracuse 4 Louisville 14

1r 8, 11, 4TD, 0, -5P, 11, 5, 4(8), 4, 5, 11, 2, -5P, 1, -2, 46, 16, 7, 17, -5P, -1, 12, 2
Total: Syracuse 9 Louisville 14
1p I, 24, I, 13, 16, -8, 7, I, I, 23, 5, 7, 5 (15), 12TD
Total: Syracuse 5 Louisville 9
First Down Total: Syracuse 10 Louisville 14
2r 6(6), 6(5), FUM, 4(6), 11, -1, 25(3), -10P, 8(17)
Total: Syracuse 4 Louisville 5
2p 52(2), I, 9, 9(15), 11(10), I, 13TD, -5P, I, 26, 18(8), I, 28(9), 8(12), FUM
Total: Syracuse 6 Louisville 9
Second Down Total: Syracuse 10 Louisville 14
3r 0, 10TD, 2(4)
Total: Syracuse 2 Louisville 1
3p INT, I, 16(18), 8, I, I
Total: Syracuse 5 Louisville 1
Third Down Total: Syracuse 7 Louisville 2
4r none
Total: Syracuse 0 Louisville 0
4p -15P, 32(2)
Total: Syracuse 1 Louisville 1
Fourth Down Total: Syracuse 1 Louisville 1

Total on running plays: Syracuse 15 Louisville 20
Total on passing plays: Syracuse 17 Louisville 20
Total on plays from scrimmage: Syracuse 32 Louisville 40

Game total when LOUISVILLE had the ball: Syracuse 36 Louisville 54

Overall game total: Syracuse 74 Louisville 110

Comment: This was the first bad physical whipping we’d taken this year. We ran 40 more successful plays than Rhode Island, the same number as Wake Forest, 7 fewer than Central Michigan, 5 fewer than LSU, 13 fewer than South Florida, 11 fewer than Virginia, 19 fewer than Pittsburgh, 16 fewer than Florida State but 37 fewer than Louisville. This is a measure of being beaten play after play, (as opposed to Florida State, which beat us primarily due to big plays), and Louisville beat us like we beat Rhode Island. Most of the talk is about our defense but our offense was really worse than the defense with 30 fewer successful plays from scrimmage than their defense while our defense had only 8 fewer successful scrimmage plays than their offense. We were particularly awful on first down runs, 3-13 and third down passes 2-11. But maybe the worse star was the result of our last three third down runs: -3, -2, and -6. We are a young team but not in the offensive line. Those guys are all juniors and seniors. And they aren’t getting the job done.

 

[SWC75]

SEASON TOTALS

When SYRACUSE had the ball:

KO: Syracuse 37 Opponent 9
P: Syracuse 37 Opponent 10
FG: Syracuse 12 Opponent 5
XP: Syracuse 29 Opponent 1

Kicking plays total: Syracuse 115 Opponent 25

1r Syracuse 76 Opponent 100
1p Syracuse 52 Opponent 41
First Down Total: Syracuse 128 Opponent 141
2r Syracuse 45 Opponent 46
2p Syracuse 38 Opponent 58
Second Down Total: Syracuse 83 Opponent 104
3r Syracuse 24 Opponent 30
3p Syracuse 27 Opponent 54
Third Down Total: Syracuse 51 Opponent 84
4r Syracuse 9 Opponent 5
4p Syracuse 2 Opponent 2
Fourth Down Total: Syracuse 11 Opponent 7

Total on running plays: Syracuse 154 Opponent 181
Total on passing plays: Syracuse 119 Opponents 155
Total on plays from scrimmage: Syracuse 273 Opponent 336

Game total when SYRACUSE had the ball: Syracuse 388 Opponent 361

When THE OPPONENT had the ball:

KO: Syracuse 13 Opponent 31
P: Syracuse 16 Opponent 28
FG: Syracuse 5 Opponent 13
XP: Syracuse 0 Opponent 32

Kicking plays total: Syracuse 34 Opponent 104

1r Syracuse 90 Opponent 95
1p Syracuse 49 Opponent 61
First Down Total: Syracuse 139 Opponent 156
2r Syracuse 44 Opponent 66
2p Syracuse 55 Opponent 56
Second Down Total: Syracuse 99 Opponent 122
3r Syracuse 19 Opponent 22
3p Syracuse 59 Opponent 35
Third Down Total: Syracuse 78 Opponent 57
4r Syracuse 1 Opponent 2
4p Syracuse 2 Opponent 6
Fourth Down Total: Syracuse 3 Opponent 8

Total on running plays: Syracuse 154 Opponent 185
Total on passing plays: Syracuse 165 Opponent 158
Total on plays from scrimmage: Syracuse 319 Opponent 343

Game total when our OPPONENT had the ball: Syracuse 353 Opponent 447

Overall game total: Syracuse 741 Opponent 808

Comments: On a season basis, the defense has done worse than the offense by a good margin but the difference is the kicking game. Say what you want about kicking plays, they are the easiest to execute in such a way that you get what you desired and thus favor the kicking team by quite a margin. In scrimmage plays, we’ve lost both sides of the ball. We are minus 63 on offense, meaning that 63 fewer offensive plays have been successful for us than have been stopped by the defense. On defense, the opposition has been successful in 24 more plays than we’ve been able to stop. Still, that’s better than the offense. Those NCAA numbers, which now show us 100th in the country in total defense but 116th in offense are not deceiving: as bad as our defense has been, the offense is actually a worse problem. We see the talents of our young players but we aren’t taking advantage of them.

 

[SWC75]

Historical Winning Plays

(Game totals only)

2011
Syracuse 101 Wake Forest 87
Syracuse 92 Rhode Island 65
Syracuse 75 USC 90
Syracuse 96 Toledo 88
Syracuse 103 Rutgers 99
Syracuse 79 Tulane 99
Syracuse 90 West Virginia 84
Syracuse 74 Louisville 83
Syracuse 84 Connecticut 86
Syracuse 92 South Florida 106
Syracuse 83 Cincinnati 104
Syracuse 87 Pittsburgh 93
TOTAL: Syracuse 1,056 Opponents 1,117

2012
Syracuse 105 Northwestern 116
Syracuse 92 USC 98
Syracuse 93 Stony Brook 82
Syracuse 82 Minnesota 95
Syracuse 85 Pittsburgh 76
Syracuse 93 Rutgers 73
Syracuse 103 Connecticut 70
Syracuse 115 South Florida 92
Syracuse 96 Cincinnati 122
Syracuse 103 Louisville 86
Syracuse 92 Missouri 98
Syracuse 98 Temple 81
Syracuse 105 West Virginia 82
TOTAL: Syracuse 1,262 Opponents 1,171

2013
Syracuse 75 Penn State 113
Syracuse 92 Northwestern 114
Syracuse 115 Wagner 52
Syracuse 107 Tulane 76
Syracuse 64 Clemson 136
Syracuse 111 N C State 85
Syracuse 46 Georgia Tech 113
Syracuse 108 Wake Forest 81
Syracuse 92 Maryland 88
Syracuse 55 Florida State 104
Syracuse 80 Pittsburgh 96
Syracuse 100 Boston College 87
Syracuse 99 Minnesota 79
TOTAL: Syracuse 1,144 Opponents 1,224

2014
Syracuse 91 Villanova 103
Syracuse 99 Central Michigan 76
Syracuse 91 Maryland 91
Syracuse 71 Notre Dame 114
Syracuse 71 Louisville 100
Syracuse 80 Florida State 101
Syracuse 86 Wake Forest 77
Syracuse 75 Clemson 102
Syracuse 92 N C State 101
Syracuse 78 Duke 98
Syracuse 46 Pittsburgh 114
Syracuse 72 Boston College 78
TOTAL: Syracuse 952 Opponents 1,155

2015
Syracuse 96 Rhode Island 56
Syracuse 83 Wake Forest 83
Syracuse 84 Central Michigan 91
Syracuse 84 Louisiana State 89
Syracuse 80 South Florida 93
Syracuse 86 Virginia 97
Syracuse 70 Pittsburgh 89
Syracuse 84 Florida State 100
Syracuse 74 Louisville 110
TOTAL: Syracuse 741 Opponents 808