SWC75
Bored Historian
- Joined
- Aug 26, 2011
- Messages
- 32,484
- Like
- 62,660
This season I will once again be charting Syracuse’s games in terms of “winning plays”. I look at the results of each play and decide which team got the minimum they wanted out of the play. Rather than making instinctive judgments, I use a formula:
- On first down, the offensive team wants to get at least a third of the way to a new first down: they will have two more plays before they might have to surrender the ball and if they gain that same amount of yards on each of those two plays, they’ll get the first down. If they don’t make it a third of the way to a new first down, the defense won the play.
- On second down, the offense wants to get at least halfway to a new first down by the same logic.
- On third and fourth down, they want to get the first down.
- Penalties, if added onto a play by the referees, are added on to the results above. If the offense gains 5 yards on first down but there was holding and they lost yardage instead, the defense won the play. If a running back made a 20 yard run on first and ten and the holding was 15 yards downfield, turning it into a 5 yard gain, that’s still a win for the offense. If the defense is penalized and it’s tacked on, again the net result is what is evaluated. The penalties I’ve listed negated the play entirely and are a “loss” for the penalized team and thus a win for their opponent. .
- If a penalty was not tacked onto a play, it’s a lost play for the team being penalized. I'll count them separate from the other plays from scrimmage because I don't know if the intended play before the penalty would have been a run or a pass - so i wouldn't know where to put it in the chart below.
- A turnover is, obviously, a win for the team that wound up with the ball.
- On a kick-off a touchback brings the ball out to the 25 yard line. Teams still seem to be trying to kick the ball into the end zone and avoid a runback if they can, so any kick-off that results in the receiving team starting between their goal line and their 25 is a win for the kicking team. Beyond that, the receiving team wins.
- On a punt, a touchback takes the ball out of the 20. So any punt that results in the other team taking over from their goal line to their 20 is a win for the punting team. If the next change in field position is at least 40 yards, the punting tam has also won the play.
- A successful place kick is, obviously, a win for the kicking team.
- Any play that results in a touchdown is, obviously, a win for that team that scores it.
- A “victory play” where a team accepts a loss just to let the clock run out, is a win for the offensive team.
I will indicate in parenthesis how many yards there were to go to get a new first down, (if other than 10), unless it was for no gain or negative yardage. If it was a touchdown, (“TD)” a scramble/sack (“S”) a victory play (“V”) or involved a penalty (P). I’ll treat a scramble or a sack as a passing play as the Cuse.com play by play now tells you when it’s either of those two. 1R means first down running plays. 1P means first down passing plays, etc.
I have decided to list the “Big Plays” at the bottom of each team’s summary. A big play is a play from scrimmage of over 20 yards, (or 20+ yards lost), kickoff returns of +25 yards, punt returns of +20, blocked kicks and turnovers on fumbles, interceptions and downs.
When Syracuse had the ball:
Drive Starts: S25, S25, S17, S37, S22, S14, S25, [] S25, L24, S16, S26 = 310/11 = S28 with 790 yards to go
KO: L25, [] L30
Total: Syracuse 1 Louisville 1
P: 29 to L23, 29 to S33, 34 to L31, 14 to S45, 30 to S45, [] 16 to S49
Total: Syracuse 0 Louisville 6
FG: Good from 43 []
Total: Syracuse 1 Louisville 0
XP: none
Total: Syracuse 0 Louisville 0
Kicking plays total: Syracuse 2 Louisville 7 (1st half: 2-5)
1r: 5, 6, 14, 3, 8, 2, 0, 1, 1, 10 [] 6, 2, -2, 12, 0
Total: Syracuse 7 Louisville 8
1p: 0, I, 5, 6 [] I, 14(15), I
Total: Syracuse 3 Louisville 4
First Down Total: Syracuse 10 Louisville 12
2r: 6(4), 25(7), 0, 5(9) [] -1, 4(5), 1(3), 11, 6(1), 3, 4
Total: Syracuse 7 Louisville 4
2p: 5(5), I, 6(8), 3, I, 9(15) [] I, 2(12)
Total: Syracuse 3 Louisville 5
Second Down Total: Syracuse 10 Louisville 9
3r: 1, 0, 3(4) [] 20, 10(1), 0, -1, 13
Total: Syracuse 3 Louisville 5
3p: -21(s,p), -5(s), I, -10(s) [] 4(5), -7(s)
Total: Syracuse 0 Louisville 6
Third Down Total: Syracuse 3 Louisville 11
4r: [] Fumble
Total: Syracuse 0 Louisville 1
4p: [] I
Total: Syracuse 0 Louisville 1
Fourth Down Total: Syracuse 0 Louisville 2
Total on running plays: Syracuse 17 Louisville 18 (1st half 8-12)
Total on passing plays: Syracuse 6 Louisville 16 (1st half 3-9)
Total on plays from scrimmage: Syracuse 23 Louisville 34 (1st half 11-21)
Penalties not tacked on to plays: -5 [] +15, +5, -10, -5, -5 Syracuse 2 Louisville 4 (1st half 0-1)
Game total when Syracuse had the ball: Syracuse 27 Louisville 45 (1st half 13-27)
Big Plays: 25R, -21(s), [] 20R
When Louisville had the ball:
Drive Starts: L23, l25, S33, L31, S45, S45, L30, L10, L35, S49 average: 382/10 = L38 with 618 yards to go.
KO: S25, S25, S17, S37, S25 [] S25, S28
Total: Syracuse 2 Louisville 5
P: 43 to S22, 28 to S14 [] 20 to S24
Total: Syracuse 1 Louisville 2
FG: [] Good from 33, Good from 27
Total: Syracuse 0 Louisville 2
XP: Good, Good, Good, Good, Good []
Total: Syracuse 0 Louisville 5
Kicking plays total: Syracuse 3 Louisville 14 (1st half 2-10)
1r: 39, 28, 7(p), -3, 8, 4, 1, 3, 4, , 5, 2 [] 16, 3, 0, -2, 0, 2
Total: Syracuse 8 Louisville 10
1p: I, 9, 33TD, 6TD, 5 [] I, I
Total: Syracuse 3 Louisville 4
First Down Total: Syracuse 11 Louisville 14
2r: 6TD, 7(1), 5(7), 5 [] 1, 2, 4, 5
Total: Syracuse 2 Louisville 6
2p: -5(s), I, 23(6), 4(9), I, 11(5), 17TD [] I, 6(12), I
Total: Syracuse 6 Louisville 4
Second Down Total: Syracuse 8 Louisville 10
3r: 5(2) [] 2(5), -1, -1, 15(5), 4(8)
Total: Syracuse 4 Louisville 2
3p: 18(15), 41TD, 7(14) [] 32, 4(6)
Total: Syracuse 2 Louisville 3
Third Down Total: Syracuse 6 Louisville 5
4r: [] 6(2)
Total: Syracuse 0 Louisville 1
4p: none
Total: Syracuse 0 Louisville 0
Fourth Down Total: Syracuse 0 Louisville 1
Total on running plays: Syracuse 14 Louisville 19 (1st half 3-14)
Total on passing plays: Syracuse 11 Louisville 11 (1st half 6-9)
Total on plays from scrimmage: Syracuse 25 Louisville 30 (1st half 9-23)
Penalties not tacked on to plays: +15, -5, +5 Syracuse 1 Louisville 2 (1st Half 0-1)
Game total when Louisville had the ball: Syracuse 29 Louisville 46 (1st half 11-34)
Big Plays: 39r, 28r, 33pTD, 23p, 41pTD [] 32p
Overall Game total: Syracuse 56 Louisville 91 (1st half 25-61)
Comments: I decided to separate the first half plays from the second with this symbol: []. Syracuse did, indeed, play better in the second half, (31-30 vs. 25-61), but, of course Louisville could not maintain the feeding frenzy intensity of the first half and they also began to substitute while we kept our starters in, so the ‘improvement’ is largely deceiving.
Two numbers jump out at me: We were 0-6 on pour punts. We gained a net total of 152 yards, 25 yards per punt, none of which resulted in the ball being downed inside the Cardinal’s 20 yards line. Louisville wasn’t a lot better. Their three punts netted 91 yards, 30 yards per punt. But one travelled 43 yards and another put the ball on the SU14.
The other is our third down passing: 6 attempts produced -39 yards. There was one gain: 4 yards when we had 5 to go. We didn’t manage to gain three first downs on 8 third down runs. But we were also 0 for 2 on fourth down, including a fumble. Third and fourth down determine if you keep the ball and we did so 3 times in 16 attempts.
Of course, big plays were a huge factor. We got three of them and one of them was bad, 21 yards lost on the high snap. The other two got us 45 yards. One of them, a 25 yard run, helped set up our only score, a field goal. The Cardinals had 6 of them for 196 yards, (33 yards per play), and 2 TDs, two such plays on their opening plays of the game, which started the feeding frenzy and put us in shell-shocked mode.
This was a -35 game, (56-91). These are the closest games to this one in the Babers Era:
2016 Syracuse 99 Louisville 132 = -33 We lost 28-62
2016 Syracuse 71 North Carolina State 103 = -32 We lost 20-35
2017 Syracuse 86 Miami 119 = -33 We lost 19-27
2019 Syracuse 82 Maryland 112 = -30 We lost 20-63
2019 Syracuse 77 Clemson 113 = -36 We lost 6-41
2020 Syracuse 79 Duke 114 = -35 We lost 24-38
2020 Syracuse 72 Clemson 112 = -40 We lost 21-47
2020 Syracuse 76 North Carolina State 108 = -32 We lost 29-36
2021 Syracuse 64 Rutgers 101 = -37 We lost 7-17
2021 Syracuse 56 Louisville 91 = -35 We lost 3-41
Losing the play-by-play battle by +30 doesn’t guarantee that we are going to be blown out but it certainly makes it possible.
By the way, I’ve been asking why we compete with Clemson so much better than with Louisville. Here are those games since Dino took over:
2016 Syracuse 99 Louisville 132 = -33 We lost 28-62
2016 Syracuse 74 Clemson 120 = -46 We lost 0-54
2017 Syracuse 95 Clemson 97= -2 We won 27-24
2017 Syracuse 96 Louisville 100 = -4 We lost 10-56
2018 Syracuse 86 Clemson 102= -16 We lost 23-27
2018 Syracuse 124 Louisville 83 = +41 We won 54-23
2019 Syracuse 77 Clemson 113 = -36 We lost 6-41
2019 Syracuse 85 Louisville 104 = -19 We lost 34-56
2020 Syracuse 72 Clemson 112 = -40 We lost 21-47
2020 Syracuse 76 Louisville 81 = -5 We lost 0-30
2021 Syracuse 79 Clemson 99 = -20 We lost 14-17
2021 Syracuse 56 Louisville 91 = -35 we lost 3-41
Clemson games: Plays: Syracuse 483 Clemson 643 Points: 91-210
Louisville games: Plays: Syracuse 536 Louisville 591 Points: 129-268
The pace of the games has been identical: 1,126 plays in the Clemson games, 1,127 in the Louisville games. Clemson has actually done a better job of winning plays, meaning that Louisville has gotten more big plays. Our average score against Clemson has been 15-35, not exactly close. Against Louisville it’s been 21.5-45, a bit more of a margin but not a big difference. But much of Clemson’s margin comes from their initial blow-out win in 2016. The 2019 and 2020 games got away from us in the third quarter. I remember being down 6-17 when Clemson got a long play where many of us thought a receiver had stepped out of bounds. In 2020 a 21-27 game was broken open by a series of turnovers. The other three games have all come down to the wire. The 2017 and 2020 Louisville games have been amazingly close in plays considering the final score. I think Louisville has made more big plays and made them early, taking command of the games much earlier. In that 2017 game, we had many gains but none of them over 20 yards. Louisville has 11 such plays totaling 446 yards, 7 of which went for touchdowns. 2020 was more about our offensive failures. We had a lot of 4 yard gains but only one 20 yards gain and it was exactly that. We were 1 for 11 on third and fourth down in that game. The Tigers have been more content to grind it out and winning by dominating play after play when the game was on the line. But the end result has actually been about the same, regardless of the perception the games left us with.
- On first down, the offensive team wants to get at least a third of the way to a new first down: they will have two more plays before they might have to surrender the ball and if they gain that same amount of yards on each of those two plays, they’ll get the first down. If they don’t make it a third of the way to a new first down, the defense won the play.
- On second down, the offense wants to get at least halfway to a new first down by the same logic.
- On third and fourth down, they want to get the first down.
- Penalties, if added onto a play by the referees, are added on to the results above. If the offense gains 5 yards on first down but there was holding and they lost yardage instead, the defense won the play. If a running back made a 20 yard run on first and ten and the holding was 15 yards downfield, turning it into a 5 yard gain, that’s still a win for the offense. If the defense is penalized and it’s tacked on, again the net result is what is evaluated. The penalties I’ve listed negated the play entirely and are a “loss” for the penalized team and thus a win for their opponent. .
- If a penalty was not tacked onto a play, it’s a lost play for the team being penalized. I'll count them separate from the other plays from scrimmage because I don't know if the intended play before the penalty would have been a run or a pass - so i wouldn't know where to put it in the chart below.
- A turnover is, obviously, a win for the team that wound up with the ball.
- On a kick-off a touchback brings the ball out to the 25 yard line. Teams still seem to be trying to kick the ball into the end zone and avoid a runback if they can, so any kick-off that results in the receiving team starting between their goal line and their 25 is a win for the kicking team. Beyond that, the receiving team wins.
- On a punt, a touchback takes the ball out of the 20. So any punt that results in the other team taking over from their goal line to their 20 is a win for the punting team. If the next change in field position is at least 40 yards, the punting tam has also won the play.
- A successful place kick is, obviously, a win for the kicking team.
- Any play that results in a touchdown is, obviously, a win for that team that scores it.
- A “victory play” where a team accepts a loss just to let the clock run out, is a win for the offensive team.
I will indicate in parenthesis how many yards there were to go to get a new first down, (if other than 10), unless it was for no gain or negative yardage. If it was a touchdown, (“TD)” a scramble/sack (“S”) a victory play (“V”) or involved a penalty (P). I’ll treat a scramble or a sack as a passing play as the Cuse.com play by play now tells you when it’s either of those two. 1R means first down running plays. 1P means first down passing plays, etc.
I have decided to list the “Big Plays” at the bottom of each team’s summary. A big play is a play from scrimmage of over 20 yards, (or 20+ yards lost), kickoff returns of +25 yards, punt returns of +20, blocked kicks and turnovers on fumbles, interceptions and downs.
When Syracuse had the ball:
Drive Starts: S25, S25, S17, S37, S22, S14, S25, [] S25, L24, S16, S26 = 310/11 = S28 with 790 yards to go
KO: L25, [] L30
Total: Syracuse 1 Louisville 1
P: 29 to L23, 29 to S33, 34 to L31, 14 to S45, 30 to S45, [] 16 to S49
Total: Syracuse 0 Louisville 6
FG: Good from 43 []
Total: Syracuse 1 Louisville 0
XP: none
Total: Syracuse 0 Louisville 0
Kicking plays total: Syracuse 2 Louisville 7 (1st half: 2-5)
1r: 5, 6, 14, 3, 8, 2, 0, 1, 1, 10 [] 6, 2, -2, 12, 0
Total: Syracuse 7 Louisville 8
1p: 0, I, 5, 6 [] I, 14(15), I
Total: Syracuse 3 Louisville 4
First Down Total: Syracuse 10 Louisville 12
2r: 6(4), 25(7), 0, 5(9) [] -1, 4(5), 1(3), 11, 6(1), 3, 4
Total: Syracuse 7 Louisville 4
2p: 5(5), I, 6(8), 3, I, 9(15) [] I, 2(12)
Total: Syracuse 3 Louisville 5
Second Down Total: Syracuse 10 Louisville 9
3r: 1, 0, 3(4) [] 20, 10(1), 0, -1, 13
Total: Syracuse 3 Louisville 5
3p: -21(s,p), -5(s), I, -10(s) [] 4(5), -7(s)
Total: Syracuse 0 Louisville 6
Third Down Total: Syracuse 3 Louisville 11
4r: [] Fumble
Total: Syracuse 0 Louisville 1
4p: [] I
Total: Syracuse 0 Louisville 1
Fourth Down Total: Syracuse 0 Louisville 2
Total on running plays: Syracuse 17 Louisville 18 (1st half 8-12)
Total on passing plays: Syracuse 6 Louisville 16 (1st half 3-9)
Total on plays from scrimmage: Syracuse 23 Louisville 34 (1st half 11-21)
Penalties not tacked on to plays: -5 [] +15, +5, -10, -5, -5 Syracuse 2 Louisville 4 (1st half 0-1)
Game total when Syracuse had the ball: Syracuse 27 Louisville 45 (1st half 13-27)
Big Plays: 25R, -21(s), [] 20R
When Louisville had the ball:
Drive Starts: L23, l25, S33, L31, S45, S45, L30, L10, L35, S49 average: 382/10 = L38 with 618 yards to go.
KO: S25, S25, S17, S37, S25 [] S25, S28
Total: Syracuse 2 Louisville 5
P: 43 to S22, 28 to S14 [] 20 to S24
Total: Syracuse 1 Louisville 2
FG: [] Good from 33, Good from 27
Total: Syracuse 0 Louisville 2
XP: Good, Good, Good, Good, Good []
Total: Syracuse 0 Louisville 5
Kicking plays total: Syracuse 3 Louisville 14 (1st half 2-10)
1r: 39, 28, 7(p), -3, 8, 4, 1, 3, 4, , 5, 2 [] 16, 3, 0, -2, 0, 2
Total: Syracuse 8 Louisville 10
1p: I, 9, 33TD, 6TD, 5 [] I, I
Total: Syracuse 3 Louisville 4
First Down Total: Syracuse 11 Louisville 14
2r: 6TD, 7(1), 5(7), 5 [] 1, 2, 4, 5
Total: Syracuse 2 Louisville 6
2p: -5(s), I, 23(6), 4(9), I, 11(5), 17TD [] I, 6(12), I
Total: Syracuse 6 Louisville 4
Second Down Total: Syracuse 8 Louisville 10
3r: 5(2) [] 2(5), -1, -1, 15(5), 4(8)
Total: Syracuse 4 Louisville 2
3p: 18(15), 41TD, 7(14) [] 32, 4(6)
Total: Syracuse 2 Louisville 3
Third Down Total: Syracuse 6 Louisville 5
4r: [] 6(2)
Total: Syracuse 0 Louisville 1
4p: none
Total: Syracuse 0 Louisville 0
Fourth Down Total: Syracuse 0 Louisville 1
Total on running plays: Syracuse 14 Louisville 19 (1st half 3-14)
Total on passing plays: Syracuse 11 Louisville 11 (1st half 6-9)
Total on plays from scrimmage: Syracuse 25 Louisville 30 (1st half 9-23)
Penalties not tacked on to plays: +15, -5, +5 Syracuse 1 Louisville 2 (1st Half 0-1)
Game total when Louisville had the ball: Syracuse 29 Louisville 46 (1st half 11-34)
Big Plays: 39r, 28r, 33pTD, 23p, 41pTD [] 32p
Overall Game total: Syracuse 56 Louisville 91 (1st half 25-61)
Comments: I decided to separate the first half plays from the second with this symbol: []. Syracuse did, indeed, play better in the second half, (31-30 vs. 25-61), but, of course Louisville could not maintain the feeding frenzy intensity of the first half and they also began to substitute while we kept our starters in, so the ‘improvement’ is largely deceiving.
Two numbers jump out at me: We were 0-6 on pour punts. We gained a net total of 152 yards, 25 yards per punt, none of which resulted in the ball being downed inside the Cardinal’s 20 yards line. Louisville wasn’t a lot better. Their three punts netted 91 yards, 30 yards per punt. But one travelled 43 yards and another put the ball on the SU14.
The other is our third down passing: 6 attempts produced -39 yards. There was one gain: 4 yards when we had 5 to go. We didn’t manage to gain three first downs on 8 third down runs. But we were also 0 for 2 on fourth down, including a fumble. Third and fourth down determine if you keep the ball and we did so 3 times in 16 attempts.
Of course, big plays were a huge factor. We got three of them and one of them was bad, 21 yards lost on the high snap. The other two got us 45 yards. One of them, a 25 yard run, helped set up our only score, a field goal. The Cardinals had 6 of them for 196 yards, (33 yards per play), and 2 TDs, two such plays on their opening plays of the game, which started the feeding frenzy and put us in shell-shocked mode.
This was a -35 game, (56-91). These are the closest games to this one in the Babers Era:
2016 Syracuse 99 Louisville 132 = -33 We lost 28-62
2016 Syracuse 71 North Carolina State 103 = -32 We lost 20-35
2017 Syracuse 86 Miami 119 = -33 We lost 19-27
2019 Syracuse 82 Maryland 112 = -30 We lost 20-63
2019 Syracuse 77 Clemson 113 = -36 We lost 6-41
2020 Syracuse 79 Duke 114 = -35 We lost 24-38
2020 Syracuse 72 Clemson 112 = -40 We lost 21-47
2020 Syracuse 76 North Carolina State 108 = -32 We lost 29-36
2021 Syracuse 64 Rutgers 101 = -37 We lost 7-17
2021 Syracuse 56 Louisville 91 = -35 We lost 3-41
Losing the play-by-play battle by +30 doesn’t guarantee that we are going to be blown out but it certainly makes it possible.
By the way, I’ve been asking why we compete with Clemson so much better than with Louisville. Here are those games since Dino took over:
2016 Syracuse 99 Louisville 132 = -33 We lost 28-62
2016 Syracuse 74 Clemson 120 = -46 We lost 0-54
2017 Syracuse 95 Clemson 97= -2 We won 27-24
2017 Syracuse 96 Louisville 100 = -4 We lost 10-56
2018 Syracuse 86 Clemson 102= -16 We lost 23-27
2018 Syracuse 124 Louisville 83 = +41 We won 54-23
2019 Syracuse 77 Clemson 113 = -36 We lost 6-41
2019 Syracuse 85 Louisville 104 = -19 We lost 34-56
2020 Syracuse 72 Clemson 112 = -40 We lost 21-47
2020 Syracuse 76 Louisville 81 = -5 We lost 0-30
2021 Syracuse 79 Clemson 99 = -20 We lost 14-17
2021 Syracuse 56 Louisville 91 = -35 we lost 3-41
Clemson games: Plays: Syracuse 483 Clemson 643 Points: 91-210
Louisville games: Plays: Syracuse 536 Louisville 591 Points: 129-268
The pace of the games has been identical: 1,126 plays in the Clemson games, 1,127 in the Louisville games. Clemson has actually done a better job of winning plays, meaning that Louisville has gotten more big plays. Our average score against Clemson has been 15-35, not exactly close. Against Louisville it’s been 21.5-45, a bit more of a margin but not a big difference. But much of Clemson’s margin comes from their initial blow-out win in 2016. The 2019 and 2020 games got away from us in the third quarter. I remember being down 6-17 when Clemson got a long play where many of us thought a receiver had stepped out of bounds. In 2020 a 21-27 game was broken open by a series of turnovers. The other three games have all come down to the wire. The 2017 and 2020 Louisville games have been amazingly close in plays considering the final score. I think Louisville has made more big plays and made them early, taking command of the games much earlier. In that 2017 game, we had many gains but none of them over 20 yards. Louisville has 11 such plays totaling 446 yards, 7 of which went for touchdowns. 2020 was more about our offensive failures. We had a lot of 4 yard gains but only one 20 yards gain and it was exactly that. We were 1 for 11 on third and fourth down in that game. The Tigers have been more content to grind it out and winning by dominating play after play when the game was on the line. But the end result has actually been about the same, regardless of the perception the games left us with.