Winning Plays - LSU

[SWC75]

This season I will once again be charting Syracuse’s games in terms of “winning plays”. I look at the results of each play and decide which team got the minimum they wanted out of the play. Rather than making instinctive judgments, I use a formula:

- On first down, the offensive team wants to get at least a third of the way to a new first down: they will have two more plays before they might have to surrender the ball and if they gain that same amount of yards on each of those two plays, they’ll get the first down. If they don’t make it a third of the way to a new first down, the defense won the play.

- On second down, the offense wants to get at least halfway to a new first down by the same logic.

- On third and fourth down, they want to get the first down.

- Penalties, if added onto a play by the referees, are added on to the results above. If the offense gains 5 yards on first down but there was holding and they lost yardage instead, the defense won the play. If a running back made a 20 yard run on first and ten and the holding was 15 yards downfield, turning it into a 5 yard gain, that’s still a win for the offense. If the defense is penalized and it’s tacked on, again the net result is what is evaluated. The penalties I’ve listed negated the play entirely and are a “loss” for the penalized team and thus a win for their opponent. .

- If a penalty was not tacked onto a play, it’s a lost play for the team being penalized. I'll count them separate from the other plays from scrimmage because I don't know if the intended play before the penalty would have been a run or a pass - so i wouldn't know where to put it in the chart below.

- A turnover is, obviously, a win for the team that wound up with the ball.

- On a kick-off a touchback brings the ball out to the 25 yard line. Teams still seem to be trying to kick the ball into the end zone and avoid a runback if they can, so any kick-off that results in the receiving team starting between their goal line and their 25 is a win for the kicking team. Beyond that, the receiving team wins.

- On a punt, a touchback takes the ball out of the 20. So any punt that results in the other team taking over from their goal line to their 20 is a win for the punting team. If the next change in field position is at least 40 yards, the punting tam has also won the play.

- A successful place kick is, obviously, a win for the kicking team.

- Any play that results in a touchdown is, obviously, a win for that team that scores it.

- A “victory play” where a team accepts a loss just to let the clock run out, is a win for the offensive team.

I will indicate in parenthesis how many yards there were to go to get a new first down, (if other than 10), unless it was for no gain or negative yardage. If it was a touchdown, (“TD)” a sack (“S”) a victory play (“V”) or involved a penalty (P). I’ll treat a scramble as a running play, (since it’s not always clear what the intent was), but a sack as a passing play. 1R means first down running plays. 1P means first down passing plays, etc.

THE LOUISANA STATE GAME

When Syracuse had the ball:

KO: LSU 25, LSU 13, LSU 35, LSU 25, (onsides?) LSU 44
Total: Syracuse 3 Louisiana State 2
P: 40 to LSU 21, 50 to LSU 1, 39 to LSU 6, 36 to LSU 29, 49 to LSU 11, 55 to LSU 9, 58 to LSU 1
Total: Syracuse 6 Louisiana State 1
FG: Good from 42
Total: Syracuse 1 Louisiana State 0
XP: Good, Good, Good
Total: Syracuse 3 Louisiana State 0
Kicking plays total: Syracuse 13 Louisiana State 3

1r: 1, -5, 2, 5, 1, -3, 3, 14TD, 1 -2, 4
Total: Syracuse 3 Louisiana State 8
1p: INT, 5, -1, 3, I, 15, 7, 11, I, 6, 17, I, -3(S), I 13, 15, 9, 5, 7, I, 22TD, I
Total: Syracuse 12 Louisiana State 10
First Down Total: Syracuse 15 Louisiana State 18
2r: 3, 2(19), 1, 1(2)
Total: Syracuse 0 Louisiana State 4
2p: I, 10(11), 5(7), -2, 3(19), -8(S), -1, 13(4), I, 13, I, 5(5), I, 1(5), I, I, 2(1), I, 12(3), I, 8(7), 10(6), -3(S)
Total: Syracuse 8 Louisiana State 14
Second Down Total: Syracuse 8 Louisiana State 18
3r: 5(2), 8(11), 6(7), 15(11), 5(13), 1(7), 2(1)
Total: Syracuse 3 Louisiana State 4
3p: 6(5), 12(1), I, I, 3(8), 28(9), 30TD, 6(7), I, 15(9), I
Total: Syracuse 5 Louisiana State 7
Third Down Total: Syracuse 8 Louisiana State 11
4r: 6(3), 8(5)
Total: Syracuse 2 Louisiana State 0
4p: I
Total: Syracuse 0 Louisiana State 1
Fourth Down Total: Syracuse 2 Louisiana State1

Total on running plays: Syracuse 8 Louisiana State 16
Total on passing plays: Syracuse 25 Louisiana State 32
Total on plays from scrimmage: Syracuse 33 Louisiana State 48

Penalties not tacked on to plays: -4, -4, -5, +5, -15, +15, +5 Syracuse 3 Louisiana State 4

Game total when Syracuse had the ball: Syracuse 49 Louisiana State 55

Comments: We ran 81 plays to 61 and I think it did wear the Tigers down a bit. As usual, we couldn’t run the ball but the coaching staff seems to have finally decided there’s no point in trying to do what we can’t seem to do well. In the first three games, we ran the ball 134 times, including 57 times on first down. We passed the ball 131 times, (49 on first down). In this game we ran the ball 24 times (11 on first down) vs. 57 passes, (22 on first down). We are finally suing the pass to set up the run instead of the other way around, (even though we still can’t run the ball). That’s what I thought we were going to get starting with the Colgate game last year. It’s finally here.


When Louisiana State had the ball:

KO: SU 25, SU 25, SU 25, SU 25, SU 24, SU 28, SU 25
Total: Syracuse 1 Louisiana State 6
P: 45 to SU 34, 28 to SU 35, 31 to SU 37, 49 to SU 13, 40 to SU 27
Total: Syracuse 2 Louisiana State 3
FG: no attempts
Total: Syracuse 0 Louisiana State 0
XP: Good, Good, Good, Good, Good
Total: Syracuse 0 Louisiana State 5
Kicking plays total: Syracuse 3 Louisiana State 14

1r: 1TD, 0, 2, 6, 5, 1, -2, 4, -1V, 11, 11, 3, 20TD, -1SAFETY0 7, 4, 0, -3, -2V
Total: Syracuse 8 Louisiana State 11
1p: -4(S), I, 11, I, 4, 87TD, -8(S), I, 7
Total: Syracuse 5 Louisiana State4
First Down Total: Syracuse13 Louisiana State 15
2r: 0, 5(4), 4(5), 11(9), 5, 0, 2(3), 4, 0, 8, 20TD, -3V
Total: Syracuse 3 Louisiana State 9
2p: 5(26), I, I, 5(12), I, 43TD, 3(7), 24(6)
Total: Syracuse 6 Louisiana State 2
Second Down Total: Syracuse 9 Louisiana State 11
3r: 10(8), -1, 5(1), 3(2)
Total: Syracuse 1 Louisiana State 3
3p: I, 6, 13(7), I, 8(5), 6(18), 43(4), 22(6), INT
Total: Syracuse 5 Louisiana State 4
Third Down Total: Syracuse 6 Louisiana State 7
4r: none
Total: Syracuse 0 Louisiana State 0
4p: none
Total: Syracuse 0 Louisiana State
Fourth Down Total: Syracuse 0 Louisiana State 0

Total on running plays: Syracuse 12 Louisiana State 23
Total on passing plays: Syracuse 16 Louisiana State 10
Total on plays from scrimmage: Syracuse 28 Louisiana State 33

Penalties not tacked on to plays: +5 Syracuse 0 Louisiana State 1

Game total when Louisiana State had the ball: Syracuse 31 Louisiana State 48

Overall Game Total: Syracuse 80 Louisiana State 103

Comments: I had thought that, since we ran 20 more plays and basically lost because of big LSU plays and big missed SU plays, that we might have ‘won’ more plays than LSU did. Not even close. We ‘lost’ every down, rushing or passing on both sides of the ball except our 1st down passes (12-10), our 4th down runs (2-0), and every LSU passing down except 4th, (they never tried for it on 4th down). But there weren’t many LSU passes and two of them went the distance. So we really didn’t win the game physically or on the scoreboard. But we were turning it our way as the game progressed. Too bad there aren’t 5 quarters.

LSU had 23 more plays that produced their goals than we did. Here are comparable games in this regard:
2011 Syracuse 79 Tulane 99 = -20 SU won 37-34
2011 Syracuse 83 Cincinnati 104 = -21 SU lost 21-28
2013 Syracuse 92 Northwestern 114 - = -22 SU lost 27-48
2014 Syracuse 80 Florida State 101 = -21 SU lost 20-38
2014 Syracuse 78 Duke 98 = -20 SU lost 10-27
2015 Syracuse 83 Clemson 105 = -22 SU lost 27-37
2015 Syracuse 78 North Carolina State 100 = -22 SU lost 29-42
2016 Syracuse 95 South Florida 116 = -21 SU lost 20-45
You can play a competitive game when the other team has 23 more successful plays than you do, but you likely to lose the game.

 

[SWC75]

GAME BY GAME and TOTALS FOR THE YEAR

When SYRACUSE had the ball:

KO: 8-2 + 5-1 + 5-2 + 3-2 = 21-7
P: 3-0 + 4-1 + 7-0 + 6-1 = 20-2
FG: 3-1 + 3-1 + 2-0 + 1-0 = 9-2
XP: 5-1 + 2-0 + 5-0 + 3-0 = 15-1
Kicking plays total: 19-4 + 14-3 + 19-2 + 13-3 = 65-12

1r: 11-11 + 8-14 + 9-14 + 3-8 = 31-47
1p: 17-6 + 9-7 + 4-6 + 12-10 = 42-29
First Down Total: 28-17 + 17-21+ 13-20 + 15-18 = 73-76
2r: 6-5 + 3-5 + 6-6 + 0-4 = 15-20
2p: 7-9 + 8-12 + 6-7 + 8-14 = 29-42
Second Down Total: 13-14 + 11-17 +13-13 + 8-18 = 45-62
3r: 3-3 + 6-4 + 3-5 + 3-4 = 15-16
3p: 8-5 + 3-8 + 4-7 + 5-7 = 20-27
Third Down Total: 11-8 + 9-12 + 7-12 + 8-11 = 35-43
4r: 0-0 + 3-0 + 1-0 + 2-0 = 6-0
4p: 1-0 + 0-2 + 0-0 + 0-1 = 1-3
Fourth Down Total: 1-0 + 3-2 + 1-0 + 2-1 = 7-3

Total on running plays: 20-19 + 20-23 + 19-25 + 8-16 = 67-83
Total on passing plays: 33-20 + 20-29 + 14-20 + 25-32 = 92-101
Total on plays from scrimmage: 53-39 + 40-52 + 33-45 + 33-48 = 159-184

Penalties not tacked on to plays: 3-2 + 3-2 + 3-4 + 3-4 = 12-12

Game total when SYRACUSE had the ball: 75-45 + 57-57 + 55-51 + 49-55 = 236-208

Comment: We are losing on both running and passing plays but winning big in the kicking game.


When OPPONENT had the ball:

KO: 2-0 + 2-3 + 3-1 + 1-6 = 8-10
P: 9-3 + 2-5 + 0-10 + 2-3 = 13-21
FG: 0-0 + 0-0 + 0-1 + 0-0 = 0-1
XP: 0-1 + 0-4 + 0-2 + 0-5 = 0-12
Kicking plays total: 11-4 + 4-12 + 3-14 + 3-14 = 21-44

1r: 8-4 + 11-8 + 12-8 + 8-11 = 39-31
1p: 7-2 + 8-5 + 11-6 + 5-4 = 31-17
First Down Total: 15-6 + 19-13 + 23-14 + 13-15 = 70-48
2r: 6-3 + 6-4 + 4-5 + 3-9 = 19-21
2p: 7-3 + 6-8 + 11-6 + 6-2 = 30-19
Second Down Total: 13-6 + 12-12 + 15-11 + 9-11 = 49-40
3r: 7-0 + 3-0 + 1-4 + 1-3 = 12-7
3p: 8-1 + 6-3 + 8-3 + 5-4 = 27-11
Third Down Total: 15-1 + 9-3 + 9-7 + 6-7 = 39-18
4r: 0-0 + 0-0 + 1-0 + 0-0 = 1-0
4p: 0-1 + 1-0 + 0-1 + 0-0 = 1-2
Fourth Down Total: 0-1 + 1-0 + 1-1 + 0-0 = 2-2

Total on running plays: 21-7 + 20-12 + 18-17 + 12-23 = 71-59
Total on passing plays: 22-7 + 21-16 + 30-26 + 16-10= 89-59
Total on plays from scrimmage: 43-14 + 41-28 + 48-43 + 28-33 = 160-118

Penalties not tacked on to plays: 3-2 + 2-1 + 1-2 + 0-1 = 6-6

Game total when OPPONENT had the ball: 57-20 + 47-41 + 52-59 + 31-48 = 187-168

Overall Game Total: 132-65 + 104-98 + 107-110 + 80-103 = 423-376

Comment: Our defensive numbers have varied according to the opponent but we are really much improved over last year and have bene very good against the pass, largely because we are getting much more pressure on the other team’s backfield. What is needed now is consistency.



HISTORICAL WINNING PLAYS
(Game totals only- games we ‘won’ are in bold, games tied in italics.)

2011
Syracuse 101 Wake Forest 87 = +14
Syracuse 92 Rhode Island 65 = +27
Syracuse 75 USC 90 = -15
Syracuse 96 Toledo 88 = +8
Syracuse 103 Rutgers 99 = +4
Syracuse 79 Tulane 99 = -20
Syracuse 90 West Virginia 84 = -6
Syracuse 74 Louisville 83 = -9
Syracuse 84 Connecticut 86 = -2
Syracuse 92 South Florida 106 = -14
Syracuse 83 Cincinnati 104 = -21
Syracuse 87 Pittsburgh 93 = -6
TOTAL: Syracuse 1,056 Opponents 1,117 = -61 We 'won' 4 of 12 games.

2012
Syracuse 105 Northwestern 116 = -11
Syracuse 92 USC 98 = -6
Syracuse 93 Stony Brook 82 = +11
Syracuse 82 Minnesota 95 = -13
Syracuse 85 Pittsburgh 76 = +9
Syracuse 93 Rutgers 73 = +20
Syracuse 103 Connecticut 70 = +33
Syracuse 115 South Florida 92 = +23
Syracuse 96 Cincinnati 122 = -26
Syracuse 103 Louisville 86 = +17
Syracuse 92 Missouri 98 = -6
Syracuse 98 Temple 81 = -+17
Syracuse 105 West Virginia 82 +23
TOTAL: Syracuse 1,262 Opponents 1,171 = +91 We 'won' 8 of 13 games.

2013
Syracuse 75 Penn State 113 = -38
Syracuse 92 Northwestern 114 - = -22
Syracuse 115 Wagner 52 = +63
Syracuse 107 Tulane 76 = +31
Syracuse 64 Clemson 136 = -72
Syracuse 111 N C State 85 = +26
Syracuse 46 Georgia Tech 113 = -67
Syracuse 108 Wake Forest 81 = +27
Syracuse 92 Maryland 88 = +4
Syracuse 55 Florida State 104 = -49
Syracuse 80 Pittsburgh 96 = -16
Syracuse 100 Boston College 87 = +13
Syracuse 99 Minnesota 79 +20
TOTAL: Syracuse 1,144 Opponents 1,224 = -80 We 'won' 7 of 13 games.

2014
Syracuse 91 Villanova 103 = -12
Syracuse 99 Central Michigan 76 = +23
Syracuse 91 Maryland 91 = 0
Syracuse 71 Notre Dame 114 = -43
Syracuse 71 Louisville 100 = -29
Syracuse 80 Florida State 101 = -21
Syracuse 86 Wake Forest 77 = +9
Syracuse 75 Clemson 102 = -27
Syracuse 92 N C State 101 = -9
Syracuse 78 Duke 98 = -20
Syracuse 46 Pittsburgh 114 = -68
Syracuse 72 Boston College 78 = -6
TOTAL: Syracuse 952 Opponents 1,155 = -203 We 'won' 2 of 12 games, with one even.

2015
Syracuse 96 Rhode Island 56 = +40
Syracuse 83 Wake Forest 83 = 0
Syracuse 84 Central Michigan 91 = -7
Syracuse 84 Louisiana State 89 = -5
Syracuse 80 South Florida 93 = -13
Syracuse 86 Virginia 97 = -11
Syracuse 70 Pittsburgh 89 = -19
Syracuse 84 Florida State 100 = -16
Syracuse 74 Louisville 110 = -36
Syracuse 83 Clemson 105 = -22
Syracuse 78 North Carolina State 100 = -22
Syracuse 89 Boston College 78 = +11
TOTAL: Syracuse 991 Opponents 1091 = -100 We 'won' 2 of 12 games with one even.

2016
Syracuse 101 Colgate 74 = +27
Syracuse 99 Louisville 132 = -33
Syracuse 95 South Florida 116 = -21
Syracuse 91 Connecticut 99 = -8
Syracuse 98 Notre Dame 111 = -13
Syracuse 72 Wake Forest 101 = -29
Syracuse 103 Virginia Tech 104 = -1
Syracuse 93 Boston College 84 = +9
Syracuse 74 Clemson 120 = -46
Syracuse 71 North Carolina State 103 = -32
Syracuse 71 Florida State 120 = -49
Syracuse 107 Pittsburgh 118 = -11
TOTAL: Syracuse 1075 Opponent 1282 = -207 We 'won' 2 of 12 games.

2017
Syracuse 132 Central Connecticut 65 = +67
Syracuse 104 Middle Tennessee 98 = +6
Syracuse 107 Central Michigan 110 = -3
Syracuse 80 Louisiana State 103 = -23
TOTAL: Syracuse 422 Opponents 376 = +46 We’ve ‘won’ 2 of 4 games

Totals since 2011: Syracuse has won 6,903 plays, (48.2%) and 27 games, (34.6%). The opposition has won 7,416 plays and 49 games with 2 games even. We’ve seen the opposition obtain their goals on 513 more plays than we have in 78 games, an average of 6.6 plays a game.