Winning Plays - NC State

[SWC75]

This season I will once again be charting Syracuse’s games in terms of “winning plays”. I look at the results of each play and decide which team got the minimum they wanted out of the play. Rather than making instinctive judgments, I use a formula:

- On first down, the offensive team wants to get at least a third of the way to a new first down: they will have two more plays before they might have to surrender the ball and if they gain that same amount of yards on each of those two plays, they’ll get the first down. If they don’t make it a third of the way to a new first down, the defense won the play.
- On second down, the offense wants to get at least halfway to a new first down by the same logic.
- On third and fourth down, they want to get the first down.
- Penalties, if added onto a play by the referees, are added on to the results above. If the offense gains 5 yards on first down but there was holding and they lost yardage instead, the defense won the play. If a running back made a 20 yard run on first and ten and the holding was 15 yards downfield, turning it into a 5 yard gain, that’s still a win for the offense. If the defense is penalized and it’s tacked on, again the net result is what is evaluated. The penalties I’ve listed negated the play entirely and are a “loss” for the penalized team and thus a win for their opponent. .
- If a penalty was not tacked onto a play, it’s a lost play for the team being penalized. I'll count them separate from the other plays from scrimmage because I don't know if the intended play before the penalty would have been a run or a pass - so i wouldn't know where to put it in the chart below.
- A turnover is, obviously, a win for the team that wound up with the ball.
- On a kick-off a touchback brings the ball out to the 25 yard line. Teams still seem to be trying to kick the ball into the end zone and avoid a runback if they can, so any kick-off that results in the receiving team starting between their goal line and their 25 is a win for the kicking team. Beyond that, the receiving team wins.
- On a punt, a touchback takes the ball out of the 20. So any punt that results in the other team taking over from their goal line to their 20 is a win for the punting team. If the next change in field position is at least 40 yards, the punting tam has also won the play.
- A successful place kick is, obviously, a win for the kicking team.
- Any play that results in a touchdown is, obviously, a win for that team that scores it.
- A “victory play” where a team accepts a loss just to let the clock run out, is a win for the offensive team.

I will indicate in parenthesis how many yards there were to go to get a new first down, (if other than 10), unless it was for no gain or negative yardage. If it was a touchdown, (“TD)” a sack (“S”) a victory play (“V”) or involved a penalty (P). I’ll treat a scramble as a running play, (since it’s not always clear what the intent was), but a sack as a passing play. 1R means first down running plays. 1P means first down passing plays, etc.

THE NORTH CAOLINA STATE GAME

When Syracuse had the ball:

KO: NCS 35, NCS 25, NCS 18, (Onsides) SU 48
Total: Syracuse 2 North Carolina State 2
P: 33 to NCS 20, 43 to NCS 47, 36 ro NCS 29, 45 to NCS 35
Total: Syracuse 3 North Carolina State 1
FG: No Good from 48, Good from 38
Total: Syracuse 1 North Carolina State 1
XP: Good, Good, 2pt Good
Total: Syracuse 3 North Carolina State 0
Kicking plays total: Syracuse 9 North Carolina State 4

1r: 3, 3, 3, 7TD, -2, 0, 9, 3, 1, 9
Total: Syracuse 3 North Carolina State 7
1p: I, I, I, -4(S), 3, 5, -9(S), I, -3, I, 9, 6(15), 7, 8, -11(S), 12, 5, 1, I, 8, 5
Total: Syracuse 9 North Carolina State 12
First Down Total: Syracuse 12 North Carolina State 19
2r: -3, 11(7), 6(14), 1, 3, -4, -5, 2(9), 2(1)
Total: Syracuse 2 North Carolina State 7
2p: INT, 8, 3, 37, 4(7), 47(12), I, 16(5), I, 18(1), I, 6, I, I, 10(2), I
Total: Syracuse 8 North Carolina State 8
Second Down Total: Syracuse 10 North Carolina State 15
3r: 3(2), -2, 9, 1TS, 9(13), 0
Total: Syracuse 2 North Carolina State 4
3p: 22(13), I, 10(3), 13(29), 11(13), I, 17(13), 32(8), I, I, 10TD
Total: Syracuse 5 North Carolina State 6
Third Down Total: Syracuse 7 North Carolina State 10
4r: 22(4)
Total: Syracuse 1 North Carolina State 0
4p: 9(8), 38(2), I
Total: Syracuse 2 North Carolina State 1
Fourth Down Total: Syracuse 3 North Carolina State 1

Total on running plays: Syracuse 8 North Carolina State 18
Total on passing plays: Syracuse 24 North Carolina State 27
Total on plays from scrimmage: Syracuse 32 North Carolina State 45

Penalties not tacked on to plays: -10, -5, -5, +10, -5, -15, +15 -5, -5, +5 Syracuse 3 North Carolina State 7

Game total when Syracuse had the ball: Syracuse 44 North Carolina State 56

Comments: Our kicking game was not as dominant as at LSU and we were often at a field positon disadvantage as a result. We ran exactly 8 successful running plays in four quarters, only 5 on first and second down. We had three times as many successful passing plays.


When North Carolina State had the ball:

KO: SU 25, SU 25, SU 25, SU 29, SU 32, SU 22, SU 45
Total: Syracuse 3 North Carolina State 4
P: 65 to SU 3, 39 to SU 11, 55 to SU 10, 16 to NCS 33
Total: Syracuse 1 North Carolina State 3
FG: 26 Good, 48 Good, 31 No Good
Total: Syracuse 1 North Carolina State 3
XP: Good, Good, Good, Good
Total: Syracuse 4 North Carolina State 0
Kicking plays total: Syracuse 6 North Carolina State 12

1r: -3, 1, 2, 4, 11, 2, 2, 22, 17, 5, 10TD, 1, 2, 7, 10, -1, 4, 5, 1, 1, 1TD, 2, 0, 2, -2V
Total: Syracuse 13 North Carolina State 12
1p: I, I, I, I, 20, 9, 7, I, 6, I, 2, 1, 10, 19
Total: Syracuse 8 North Carolina State 6
First Down Total: Syracuse 21 North Carolina State 18
2r: 2, -1, 4(5), 6(3), 18TD, 7(3), 2, -2, 4(8), 4(4), 4, -1V
Total: Syracuse 5 North Carolina State 7
2p: 10, 10(14), 10(9), 16(6), I, 20TD, 12(9), I, 7(1), 30(10), I, 8(6), 13(9), I, 9(10), 9(8)
Total: Syracuse 4 North Carolina State 12
Second Down Total: Syracuse 9 North Carolina State 19
3r: 39(1), 10, 0, -1V
Total: Syracuse 1 North Carolina State 3
3p: 7(4), 7(8), 4(9), -2, I, I, I, 5(13)
Total: Syracuse 7 North Carolina State 1
Third Down Total: Syracuse 8 North Carolina State 4
4r: 9(1), 2(1)
Total: Syracuse 2 North Carolina State 0
4p: none
Total: Syracuse 0 North Carolina State 0
Fourth Down Total: Syracuse 2 North Carolina State 0

Total on running plays: Syracuse 21 North Carolina State 22
Total on passing plays: Syracuse 19 North Carolina State 19
Total on plays from scrimmage: Syracuse 40 North Carolina State 41

Penalties not tacked on to plays: -5, -5, +12, +10, +5, -9 Syracuse 3 North Carolina State 3

Game total when had the ball: Syracuse 49 North Carolina State 56

Overall Game Total: Syracuse 93 North Carolina State 112

Comments: My impression during the game was that we were getting steamrolled up front on the running game. Actually we held our own there, (21-22), despite some first half lapses. We got killed on second down passes (4-12) but continued to be tough on third down, (8-4, 7-1 on passes).

This was a -19 game. Here are the games we’ve played since 2011 that most resemble it in terms of “winning plays” with the actual scoreboard result:
2011 Syracuse 79 Tulane 99 = -20 SU won 37-34
2011 Syracuse 83 Cincinnati 104 = -21 SU lost 13-30
2013 Syracuse 92 Northwestern 114 - = -22 SU lost 27-48
2013 Syracuse 80 Pittsburgh 96 = -16 SU lost 16-17
2014 Syracuse 80 Florida State 101 = -21 SU lost 20-38
2014 Syracuse 78 Duke 98 = -20 SU lost 10-27
2015 Syracuse 70 Pittsburgh 89 = -19 SU lost 20-23
2015 Syracuse 83 Clemson 105 = -22 SU lost 27-37
2015 Syracuse 78 North Carolina State 100 = -22 SU lost 29-42
2016 Syracuse 95 South Florida 116 = -21 SU lost 24-45
2017 Syracuse 80 Louisiana State 103 = -23 SU lost 26-35
As I wrote last week, if you let the opposition run around 20 more successful plays than you do, you can still compete with them but you are very likely to lose to them.

 

[SWC75]

GAME BY GAME and TOTALS FOR THE YEAR

When SYRACUSE had the ball:

KO: 8-2 + 5-1 + 5-2 + 3-2 + 2-2 = 23-9
P: 3-0 + 4-1 + 7-0 + 6-1 + 3-1 = 23-3
FG: 3-1 + 3-1 + 2-0 + 1-0 + 1-1 = 10-3
XP: 5-1 + 2-0 + 5-0 + 3-0 + 3-0 = 18-1
Kicking plays total: 19-4 + 14-3 + 19-2 + 13-3 + 9-4 = 74-16

1r: 11-11 + 8-14 + 9-14 + 3-8 + 3-7 = 34-54
1p: 17-6 + 9-7 + 4-6 + 12-10 + 9-12 = 51-41
First Down Total: 28-17 + 17-21+ 13-20 + 15-18 + 12-19 = 85-95
2r: 6-5 + 3-5 + 6-6 + 0-4 + 2-7 = 17-27
2p: 7-9 + 8-12 + 6-7 + 8-14 + 8-8 = 37-50
Second Down Total: 13-14 + 11-17 +12-13 + 8-18 + 10-15 = 54-77
3r: 3-3 + 6-4 + 3-5 + 3-4 + 2-4 = 17-20
3p: 8-5 + 3-8 + 4-7 + 5-7 + 5-6= 25-33
Third Down Total: 11-8 + 9-12 + 7-12 + 8-11 + 7-10 = 42-53
4r: 0-0 + 3-0 + 1-0 + 2-0 + 1-0 = 7-0
4p: 1-0 + 0-2 + 0-0 + 0-1 + 2-1 = 3-4
Fourth Down Total: 1-0 + 3-2 + 1-0 + 2-1 + 3-1= 10-4

Total on running plays: 20-19 + 20-23 + 19-25 + 8-16 + 8-18 = 75-101
Total on passing plays: 33-20 + 20-29 + 14-20 + 25-32 + 24-27 = 116-128
Total on plays from scrimmage: 53-39 + 40-52 + 33-45 + 33-48 + 32-45= 191-229

Penalties not tacked on to plays: 3-2 + 3-2 + 3-4 + 3-4 + 3-7 = 15-19

Game total when SYRACUSE had the ball: 75-45 + 57-57 + 55-51 + 49-55 + 44-56 = 280-264

Comment: We remain ahead on the season in winning offensive plays only because of the Central Connecticut game. We have accumulated a good record on third down (42-53) but a terrific record on 4th down (10-4), including an incredible 7-0 on runs. Maybe our line isn’t so bad after all.

When OPPONENT had the ball:

KO: 2-0 + 2-3 + 3-1 + 1-6 + 3-4 = 11-14
P: 9-3 + 2-5 + 0-10 + 2-3 + 1-3 = 14-24
FG: 0-0 + 0-0 + 0-1 + 0-0 + 1-2 = 1-3
XP: 0-1 + 0-4 + 0-2 + 0-5 + 1-3 = 1-15
Kicking plays total: 11-4 + 4-12 + 3-14 + 3-14 + 6-12 = 27-56

1r: 8-4 + 11-8 + 12-8 + 8-11 + 13-12 = 52-43
1p: 7-2 + 8-5 + 11-6 + 5-4 + 8-6 = 39-23
First Down Total: 15-6 + 19-13 + 23-14 + 13-15 + 21-18 = 91-66
2r: 6-3 + 6-4 + 4-5 + 3-9 + 5-7 = 24-28
2p: 7-3 + 6-8 + 11-6 + 6-2 + 4-12 = 34-31
Second Down Total: 13-6 + 12-12 + 15-11 + 9-11 + 9-19 = 58-59
3r: 7-0 + 3-0 + 1-4 + 1-3 + 1-3 = 13-10
3p: 8-1 + 6-3 + 8-3 + 5-4 + 7-1 = 34-12
Third Down Total: 15-1 + 9-3 + 9-7 + 6-7 + 8-4 = 47-22
4r: 0-0 + 0-0 + 1-0 + 0-0 + 2-0 = 3-0
4p: 0-1 + 1-0 + 0-1 + 0-0 + 0-0 = 1-2
Fourth Down Total: 0-1 + 1-0 + 1-1 + 0-0 + 2-0 = 4-2

Total on running plays: 21-7 + 20-12 + 18-17 + 12-23 + 21-22 = 92-81
Total on passing plays: 22-7 + 21-16 + 30-26 + 16-10 + 19-19 = 108-78
Total on plays from scrimmage: 43-14 + 41-28 + 48-43 + 28-33 + 40-41 = 200-159

Penalties not tacked on to plays: 3-2 + 2-1 + 1-2 + 0-1 + 3-3 = 9-9

Game total when OPPONENT had the ball: 57-20 + 47-41 + 52-59 + 31-48 + 49-56 = 236-224

Overall Game Total: 132-65 + 104-98 + 107-110 + 80-103+ 93-112 = 516-488

Comment: Again, the Central Connecticut numbers screw the sample. But it was able to because the subsequent games, regardless of opponent have been relatively close. We are doing remarkable well on first and third downs, especially third down passes.



HISTORICAL WINNING PLAYS
(Game totals only- games we ‘won’ are in bold, games tied in italics.)

2011
Syracuse 101 Wake Forest 87 = +14
Syracuse 92 Rhode Island 65 = +27
Syracuse 75 USC 90 = -15
Syracuse 96 Toledo 88 = +8
Syracuse 103 Rutgers 99 = +4
Syracuse 79 Tulane 99 = -20
Syracuse 90 West Virginia 84 = -6
Syracuse 74 Louisville 83 = -9
Syracuse 84 Connecticut 86 = -2
Syracuse 92 South Florida 106 = -14
Syracuse 83 Cincinnati 104 = -21
Syracuse 87 Pittsburgh 93 = -6
TOTAL: Syracuse 1,056 Opponents 1,117 = -61 We 'won' 4 of 12 games.

2012
Syracuse 105 Northwestern 116 = -11
Syracuse 92 USC 98 = -6
Syracuse 93 Stony Brook 82 = +11
Syracuse 82 Minnesota 95 = -13
Syracuse 85 Pittsburgh 76 = +9
Syracuse 93 Rutgers 73 = +20
Syracuse 103 Connecticut 70 = +33
Syracuse 115 South Florida 92 = +23
Syracuse 96 Cincinnati 122 = -26
Syracuse 103 Louisville 86 = +17
Syracuse 92 Missouri 98 = -6
Syracuse 98 Temple 81 = -+17
Syracuse 105 West Virginia 82 +23
TOTAL: Syracuse 1,262 Opponents 1,171 = +91 We 'won' 8 of 13 games.

2013
Syracuse 75 Penn State 113 = -38
Syracuse 92 Northwestern 114 - = -22
Syracuse 115 Wagner 52 = +63
Syracuse 107 Tulane 76 = +31
Syracuse 64 Clemson 136 = -72
Syracuse 111 N C State 85 = +26
Syracuse 46 Georgia Tech 113 = -67
Syracuse 108 Wake Forest 81 = +27
Syracuse 92 Maryland 88 = +4
Syracuse 55 Florida State 104 = -49
Syracuse 80 Pittsburgh 96 = -16
Syracuse 100 Boston College 87 = +13
Syracuse 99 Minnesota 79 +20
TOTAL: Syracuse 1,144 Opponents 1,224 = -80 We 'won' 7 of 13 games.

2014
Syracuse 91 Villanova 103 = -12
Syracuse 99 Central Michigan 76 = +23
Syracuse 91 Maryland 91 = 0
Syracuse 71 Notre Dame 114 = -43
Syracuse 71 Louisville 100 = -29
Syracuse 80 Florida State 101 = -21
Syracuse 86 Wake Forest 77 = +9
Syracuse 75 Clemson 102 = -27
Syracuse 92 N C State 101 = -9
Syracuse 78 Duke 98 = -20
Syracuse 46 Pittsburgh 114 = -68
Syracuse 72 Boston College 78 = -6
TOTAL: Syracuse 952 Opponents 1,155 = -203 We 'won' 2 of 12 games, with one even.

2015
Syracuse 96 Rhode Island 56 = +40
Syracuse 83 Wake Forest 83 = 0
Syracuse 84 Central Michigan 91 = -7
Syracuse 84 Louisiana State 89 = -5
Syracuse 80 South Florida 93 = -13
Syracuse 86 Virginia 97 = -11
Syracuse 70 Pittsburgh 89 = -19
Syracuse 84 Florida State 100 = -16
Syracuse 74 Louisville 110 = -36
Syracuse 83 Clemson 105 = -22
Syracuse 78 North Carolina State 100 = -22
Syracuse 89 Boston College 78 = +11
TOTAL: Syracuse 991 Opponents 1091 = -100 We 'won' 2 of 12 games with one even.

2016
Syracuse 101 Colgate 74 = +27
Syracuse 99 Louisville 132 = -33
Syracuse 95 South Florida 116 = -21
Syracuse 91 Connecticut 99 = -8
Syracuse 98 Notre Dame 111 = -13
Syracuse 72 Wake Forest 101 = -29
Syracuse 103 Virginia Tech 104 = -1
Syracuse 93 Boston College 84 = +9
Syracuse 74 Clemson 120 = -46
Syracuse 71 North Carolina State 103 = -32
Syracuse 71 Florida State 120 = -49
Syracuse 107 Pittsburgh 118 = -11
TOTAL: Syracuse 1075 Opponent 1282 = -207 We 'won' 2 of 12 games.

2017
Syracuse 132 Central Connecticut 65 = +67
Syracuse 104 Middle Tennessee 98 = +6
Syracuse 107 Central Michigan 110 = -3
Syracuse 80 Louisiana State 103 = -23
Syracuse 93 North Carolina State 112 = -19
TOTAL: Syracuse 516 Opponents 488 = +28 We’ve ‘won’ 2 of 5 games

Totals since 2011: Syracuse has won 6,996 plays, (48.2%) and 27 games, (34.2%). The opposition has won 7,528 plays and 50 games with 2 games even. We’ve seen the opposition obtain their goals on 532 more plays than we have in 79 games, an average of 6.7 plays a game.