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Message: [QUOTE="SWC75, post: 3138804, member: 289"] This season I will once again be charting Syracuse’s games in terms of “winning plays”. I look at the results of each play and decide which team got the minimum they wanted out of the play. Rather than making instinctive judgments, I use a formula: - On first down, the offensive team wants to get at least a third of the way to a new first down: they will have two more plays before they might have to surrender the ball and if they gain that same amount of yards on each of those two plays, they’ll get the first down. If they don’t make it a third of the way to a new first down, the defense won the play. - On second down, the offense wants to get at least halfway to a new first down by the same logic. - On third and fourth down, they want to get the first down. - Penalties, if added onto a play by the referees, are added on to the results above. If the offense gains 5 yards on first down but there was holding and they lost yardage instead, the defense won the play. If a running back made a 20 yard run on first and ten and the holding was 15 yards downfield, turning it into a 5 yard gain, that’s still a win for the offense. If the defense is penalized and it’s tacked on, again the net result is what is evaluated. The penalties I’ve listed negated the play entirely and are a “loss” for the penalized team and thus a win for their opponent. . - If a penalty was not tacked onto a play, it’s a lost play for the team being penalized. I'll count them separate from the other plays from scrimmage because I don't know if the intended play before the penalty would have been a run or a pass - so i wouldn't know where to put it in the chart below. - A turnover is, obviously, a win for the team that wound up with the ball. - On a kick-off a touchback brings the ball out to the 25 yard line. Teams still seem to be trying to kick the ball into the end zone and avoid a runback if they can, so any kick-off that results in the receiving team starting between their goal line and their 25 is a win for the kicking team. Beyond that, the receiving team wins. - On a punt, a touchback takes the ball out of the 20. So any punt that results in the other team taking over from their goal line to their 20 is a win for the punting team. If the next change in field position is at least 40 yards, the punting tam has also won the play. - A successful place kick is, obviously, a win for the kicking team. - Any play that results in a touchdown is, obviously, a win for that team that scores it. - A “victory play” where a team accepts a loss just to let the clock run out, is a win for the offensive team. I will indicate in parenthesis how many yards there were to go to get a new first down, (if other than 10), unless it was for no gain or negative yardage. If it was a touchdown, (“TD)” a scramble/sack (“S”) a victory play (“V”) or involved a penalty (P). I’ll treat a scramble or a sack as a passing play as the Cuse.com play by play now tells you when it’s either of those two. 1R means first down running plays. 1P means first down passing plays, etc. When Syracuse had the ball: KO: NCS21, NCS 31, NCS 35 Total: Syracuse 1 North Carolina State 2 P: 39 to NCS 42, 37 to NCS 40, 50 to NCS 23, 51 to NCS 21, 47 to NCS 11, 37 to NCS 39, 46 to NCS 25 Total: Syracuse 4 North Carolina State 3 FG: No Good from 44, Good from 32 Total: Syracuse 1 North Carolina State 1 XP: Good Total: Syracuse 1 North Carolina State 0 Kicking plays total: Syracuse 7 North Carolina State 6 1r: 1, 0, 5, 3, 2, -2, 0, 2, 5, 3, -4, 0, 0 Total: Syracuse 2 North Carolina State 11 1p: -4(s), I, 13, 10, -12(s), I, -2(s), 9, 36, I, 9, 7, I, 8, 3, 2TD, 7, 14, 8 Total: Syracuse 11 North Carolina State 8 First Down Total: Syracuse 13 North Carolina State 19 2r: 2, 7(5), 2, 0, 2(12), 2(1), 3(5), 4, 10, 4 Total: Syracuse 4 North Carolina State 7 2p: 4, 4(14), I, -15(s), 13(8), 7, I, 6, 14(14), 9(1), 22(3), 6(2), 1(7), 8(3), I Total: Syracuse 8 North Carolina State 6 Second Down Total: Syracuse 12 North Carolina State 13 3r: 3(7), 12(37), 3(2), 17(7) Total: Syracuse 2 North Carolina State 2 3p: 4, -2, I, 12(8), 5(3), -9(s), 52(10), -2(s), -3(s), I, 9(16), -5(s) Total: Syracuse 3 North Carolina State 9 Third Down Total: Syracuse 5 North Carolina State 11 4r: 7(7) Total: Syracuse 1 North Carolina State 0 4p: I Total: Syracuse 0 North Carolina State 1 Fourth Down Total: Syracuse 1 North Carolina State 1 Total on running plays: Syracuse 9 North Carolina State 20 Total on passing plays: Syracuse 22 North Carolina State 24 Total on plays from scrimmage: Syracuse 31 North Carolina State 44 Penalties not tacked on to plays: -5, -5, -4, -5, -5, +15, +10, -5, -5 Syracuse 2 North Carolina State 7 Game total when Syracuse had the ball: Syracuse 40 North Carolina State 57 When North Carolina State had the ball: KO: SU 20, SU 25, SU 22, SU 25 Total: Syracuse 0 North Carolina State 5 P: 32 to SU 20, 52 to SU 17, 47 to SU 28, 51 to SU 10, 36 to SU 23 Total: Syracuse 1 North Carolina State 4 FG: Good from 32, Good from 43, Good from 23 Total: Syracuse 0 North Carolina State 3 XP: Good Total: Syracuse 0 North Carolina State 1 Kicking plays total: Syracuse 1 North Carolina State 13 1r: 1, 1, 8, 4, 11, 18, -2, 0, 2, 3, -1, 1, 4, 3, 7 Total: Syracuse 9 North Carolina State 5 1p: 27, 12, 8, I, 5, 3, 23, I, 23, 32, 12, 30, 7, 12, 37 Total: Syracuse 3 North Carolina State 12 First Down Total: Syracuse North Carolina State 2r: 15, 1(2), 10, 1, 1(7), 3(2), 3(20), 8(12), 0, 2(3), 0, 12(6), 0 Total: Syracuse 6 North Carolina State 7 2p: I, I, -7(s), 10(8), I, 1(9), I Total: Syracuse 6 North Carolina State 1 Second Down Total: Syracuse 12 North Carolina State 8 3r: 3(1), 4(1), -1 Total: Syracuse 1 North Carolina State 2 3p: I, -3, 13(5), I, I, 0, 5(4), Interception, I, I, -8(s), I Total: Syracuse 10 North Carolina State 2 Third Down Total: Syracuse 11 North Carolina State 4 4r: none Total: Syracuse 0 North Carolina State 0 4p: none Total: Syracuse 0 North Carolina State 0 Fourth Down Total: Syracuse 0 North Carolina State 0 Total on running plays: Syracuse 16 North Carolina State 14 Total on passing plays: Syracuse 19 North Carolina State 15 Total on plays from scrimmage: Syracuse 35 North Carolina State 29 Penalties not tacked on to plays: -10, -12, +5 Syracuse 2 North Carolina State 1 Game total when North Carolina State had the ball: Syracuse 38 North Carolina State 43 Overall game total: Syracuse 78 North Carolina State 100 Comments: The very first thing I computed was the kicking and Sterling Hofrichter and Andre Szymt went 7-6. They had been 73-5 on the year. Andre missed a field goal that could have created a different scenario for the final minutes and Sterling kicked that kick-off out of bounds. Meanwhile the Wolfpack kickers were 13-1, the sort of edge we usually have. The average starting point of our drives was our 20.5, We had a total of 954 yards to go. Their average starting point was their 28 and they had 866 yards to go, a hidden 88 yards in their favor. We got 15 yards on 13 first down rushing plays. They got 60 yards on 14 such plays. But theirs breaks down to 43 yards in 6 first half plays and then 17 yards on eight second half plays. So the coaches made adjustments and the defense stepped up. We had 1 first period first down pass attempt and in the first half we gained 5 yards on first down passes. In the second half we gained 103 yards on first down passes. NC State feasted on first down passes, gaining 231 yards on 15 attempts. That’s 89% of their passing yards and 63% of their total offense. We gained 19 yards on second down passing plays in the first three quarters, 60 in the fourth quarter. We got -1 yard on third down passes in the second half, with 3 sacks in 5 attempts. That’s why we couldn’t sustain drives, even after we got the offense going. But we held them to a total of 7 yards on 11 attempts of third down passes with an interception for the entire game, which is how we stayed in it and had a chance to win in the end. We had 7 penalties against us that were not tacked on to plays. Focus, baby, focus! GAME BY GAME and TOTALS FOR THE YEAR When SYRACUSE had the ball: KO: 4-0 + 4-0 + 3-0 + 7-1 + 4-1 + 1-2 = 23-4 P: 6-0 + 3-2 + 9-0 + 5-0 + 5-0 + 4-3 = 32-5 FG: 1-0 + 0-0 + 2-0 + 1-0 + 2-0 + 1-1 = 7-1 XP: 3-0 + 2-1 + 0-0 + 7-0 + 5-0 + 1-0 = 18-1 Kicking plays total: 14-0 + 9-3 + 14-0 + 20-1 + 16-1 + 7-6 = 80-11 1r: 5-13 + 8-3 + 4-7 + 9-16 + 8-5 + 2-11 = 36-55 1p: 3-8 + 10-10 + 6-9 + 6-5 + 7-9 + 11-8 = 43-49 First Down Total: 8-21 + 18-13 + 10-16 +15-21 + 15-14 + 13-19 = 79-104 2r: 10-1 + 3-4 + 5-8 + 5-7+ 7-5 + 4-7 = 34-32 2p: 6-10 + 6-8 + 2-8 + 11-6 + 8-4 + 8-6 = 41-42 Second Down Total: 16-11 + 9-12 + 7-16 + 16-13 + 15-9 + 12-13 = 75-74 3r: 5-5 + 3-4 + 2-5 + 3-3 + 2-3 + 2-2 = 17-22 3p: 4-5 + 2-5 + 2-10 + 5-5 + 3-8 + 3-9 = 19-42 Third Down Total: 9-10 + 5-9 + 4-15 + 8-8 + 5-11 + 5-11 = 36-64 4r: 2-1 + 0-0 + 0-1 + 1-0 + 1-2 + 1-0 = 5-4 4p: 0-1 + 0-3 + 0-2 + 0-0 + 0-0 + 0-1 = 0-7 Fourth Down Total: 2-2 + 0-3 + 0-3 + 1-0 + 1-2 + 1-1 = 5-11 Total on running plays: 22-20 + 14-11 + 11-21 +18-26 + 18-15 + 9-20 = 92-113 Total on passing plays: 13-24 + 18-26 + 10-29 + 22-16 + 18-21 + 22-24 = 103-140 Total on plays from scrimmage: 35-44 + 32-37 + 21-50 + 40-42 + 36-36 + 31-44 = 195-253 Penalties not tacked on to plays: 0-4 + 2-4 + 3-4 + 2-6 + 1-3 + 2-7= 10-28 Game total when SYRACUSE had the ball: 49-48 + 43-44 + 38-54 + 62-49 + 53-40 + 40-57 = 285-292 When OPPONENT had the ball: KO: 0-1 + 4-6 + 0-7 + 2-3 + 1-0 + 0-5 = 7-22 P: 2-6 + 2-1 + 3-3 + 1-3 + 5-5 + 1-4 = 14-22 FG: 0-1 + 0-0 + 1-2 + 0-0 + 0-1 + 0-3 = 1-7 XP: 0-0 + 0-9 + 0-5 + 1-4 + 0-0 + 0-1 = 1-19 Kicking plays total: 2-8 + 6-16 + 4-17 + 4-10 + 6-6 + 1-13 = 23-70 1r: 10-5 + 9-17 + 6-13 + 10-8 + 7-7 + 9-5 = 51-55 1p: 11-8 + 9-7 + 7-8 + 10-7 + 6-4 + 3-12 = 46-46 First Down Total: 21-13 + 18-24 + 13-21 + 20-15 + 13-11 Z+ 12-17 = 97-101 2r: 5-2 + 5-7 + 1-6 + 2-6 + 8-3 + 6-7 = 27-31 2p: 12-6 + 6-7 + 9-7 + 9-7 + 9-3 + 6-1 = 51-31 Second Down Total: 17-8 + 11-14 + 10-13 + 11-13 + 17-6 + 12-8 = 78-62 3r: 5-1 + 0-4 + 1-2 + 2-2 + 3-0 + 1-2 = 12-11 3p: 8-2 + 4-7 + 8-3 + 7-5 + 11-3 + 10-2 = 48-22 Third Down Total: 13-3 + 4-11 + 9-5 + 9-7= 14-3 + 11-4 = 60-33 4r: 0-0 + 0-0 + 0-0 + 2-0 + 0-0 + 0-0 = 2-0 4p: 1-0 + 0-0 + 0-0 + 2-1 + 3-0 + 0-0 = 6-1 Fourth Down Total: 1-0 + 0-0 + 0-0 + 4-1 + 3-0 + 0-0 = 8-1 Total on running plays: 20-8 + 14-28 + 8-21 + 16-16 + 18-10 +16-14 = 92-97 Total on passing plays: 32-16 + 19-21 + 24-18 + 28-20 + 29-10 + 19-15 = 151-100 Total on plays from scrimmage: 52-24 + 33-49 + 32-39 + 44-36 + 47-20 + 35-29 = 243-197 Penalties not tacked on to plays: 1-4 + 0-3 + 3-3 + 3-4 + 4-1 + 2-1 = 13-16 Game total when OPPONENT had the ball: 55-36 + 39-68 + 39-59 + 51-50 + 57-27 + 38-43 = 279-283 Overall game total: 104-84 + 82-112 + 77-113 + 113-99 + 110-67 + 78-100= 564-575 Comments: Overall, we are 195-253 on offensive plays from scrimmage, which reflects the problems we’ve had in our offensive line. That’s got to be turned around if we are to make something of this season. It may not seem like it but we are actually 243-197 on defensive plays from scrimmage. It’s the big plays 68-34). But we’ve lost that knack on offense, (41-75). HISTORICAL WINNING PLAYS (Babers Era – game totals only) 2016 Syracuse 101 Colgate 74 = +27 Syracuse 99 Louisville 132 = -33 Syracuse 95 South Florida 116 = -21 Syracuse 91 Connecticut 99 = -8 Syracuse 98 Notre Dame 111 = -13 Syracuse 72 Wake Forest 101 = -29 Syracuse 103 Virginia Tech 104 = -1 Syracuse 93 Boston College 84 = +9 Syracuse 74 Clemson 120 = -46 Syracuse 71 North Carolina State 103 = -32 Syracuse 71 Florida State 120 = -49 Syracuse 107 Pittsburgh 118 = -11 TOTAL: Syracuse 1075 Opponent 1282 = -207 We 'won' 2 of 12 games. 2017 Syracuse 132 Central Connecticut 65 = +67 Syracuse 104 Middle Tennessee 98 = +6 Syracuse 107 Central Michigan 100 = +7 Syracuse 80 Louisiana State 103 = -23 Syracuse 93 North Carolina State 112 = -19 Syracuse 97 Pittsburgh 96 = +1 Syracuse 95 Clemson 97= -2 Syracuse 86 Miami 119 = -33 Syracuse 90 Florida State 108 = -18 Syracuse 120 Wake Forest 125 = -5 Syracuse 96 Louisville 100 = -4 Syracuse 77 Boston College 87 = -10 TOTAL: Syracuse 1177 Opponents 1210 = -33 We’ve ‘won’ 4 of12 games 2018 Syracuse 109 Western Michigan 96 = +13 Syracuse 139 Wagner 65 = +74 Syracuse 113 Florida State 77 = +36 Syracuse 109 Connecticut 83 = +26 Syracuse 86 Clemson 102= -16 Syracuse 99 Pittsburgh 97 = +2 Syracuse 113 North Carolina 115 = -2 Syracuse 113 North Carolina State 96 = +17 Syracuse 117 Wake Forest 107 = +10 Syracuse 124 Louisville 83 = +41 Syracuse 86 Notre Dame 99 = -13 Syracuse 110 Boston College 96 = +14 Syracuse 116 West Virginia 79 +37 TOTAL: Syracuse 1434 Opponents 1195 = +239 We ‘won’ 10 of 13 games 2019 Syracuse 104 Liberty 84 = +20 Syracuse 82 Maryland 112 = -30 Syracuse 77 Clemson 113 = -36 Syracuse 113 Western Michigan 99 =+14 Syracuse 110 Holy Cross 67 = +43 Syracuse 78 North Carolina State 100 = -22 Totals since 2016: Syracuse has won 4,250 plays, (49.9%) and 19 games, (44.2%). The opposition has won 4,262 plays and 24 games. They’ve obtained their goals on 12 more plays than we have in 43 games, an average of 0.3 plays a game. [/QUOTE]

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