SWC75
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This season I will once again be charting Syracuse’s games in terms of “winning plays”. I look at the results of each play and decide which team got the minimum they wanted out of the play. Rather than making instinctive judgments, I use a formula:
- On first down, the offensive team wants to get at least a third of the way to a new first down: they will have two more plays before they might have to surrender the ball and if they gain that same amount of yards on each of those two plays, they’ll get the first down. If they don’t make it a third of the way to a new first down, the defense won the play.
- On second down, the offense wants to get at least halfway to a new first down by the same logic.
- On third and fourth down, they want to get the first down.
- Penalties, if added onto a play by the referees, are added on to the results above. If the offense gains 5 yards on first down but there was holding and they lost yardage instead, the defense won the play. If a running back made a 20 yard run on first and ten and the holding was 15 yards downfield, turning it into a 5 yard gain, that’s still a win for the offense. If the defense is penalized and it’s tacked on, again the net result is what is evaluated. The penalties I’ve listed negated the play entirely and are a “loss” for the penalized team and thus a win for their opponent. .
- If a penalty was not tacked onto a play, it’s a lost play for the team being penalized. I'll count them separate from the other plays from scrimmage because I don't know if the intended play before the penalty would have been a run or a pass - so i wouldn't know where to put it in the chart below.
- A turnover is, obviously, a win for the team that wound up with the ball.
- On a kick-off a touchback brings the ball out to the 25 yard line. Teams still seem to be trying to kick the ball into the end zone and avoid a runback if they can, so any kick-off that results in the receiving team starting between their goal line and their 25 is a win for the kicking team. Beyond that, the receiving team wins.
- On a punt, a touchback takes the ball out of the 20. So any punt that results in the other team taking over from their goal line to their 20 is a win for the punting team. If the next change in field position is at least 40 yards, the punting tam has also won the play.
- A successful place kick is, obviously, a win for the kicking team.
- Any play that results in a touchdown is, obviously, a win for that team that scores it.
- A “victory play” where a team accepts a loss just to let the clock run out, is a win for the offensive team.
I will indicate in parenthesis how many yards there were to go to get a new first down, (if other than 10), unless it was for no gain or negative yardage. If it was a touchdown, (“TD)” a scramble/sack (“S”) a victory play (“V”) or involved a penalty (P). I’ll treat a scramble or a sack as a passing play as the Cuse.com play by play now tells you when it’s either of those two. 1R means first down running plays. 1P means first down passing plays, etc.
Note: I us the play by play from Cuse.com which did not design ate scrambles for the North Carolina or Pittsburgh games so those plays were recorded here as runs since I couldn’t tell if they were planned QB runs or not. (ESPN didn’t note scrambles, either)
The North Carolina State game
When Syracuse had the ball:
KO: NCS 25, NCS 25, NCS 25, NCS 12, NCS 44, NCS 25
Total: Syracuse 5 NC State 1
P: 19 to NCS 20, 36 to NCS 49, 52 to NCS 25, 43 to NCS 13, 48 to NCS 31, 59 to NCS 32
Total: Syracuse 4 NC State 2
FG: Good from 45, Good from 23
Total: Syracuse 2 NC State 0
XP: Good, Good, Good
Total: Syracuse 3 NC State 0
Kicking plays total: Syracuse 14 NC State 3
1r: 0, 2, 0, 2, 0, 2, -2, 2, 1, 1, 2(9)
Total: Syracuse 0 NC State 11
1p: 12, I, I, 7, 14, 20(p), I, I, 2, I, 13, I, I, I, 8, 15, I
Total: Syracuse 7 NC State 10
First Down Total: Syracuse 7 NC State 21
2r: -5, 4(8), -8, 4(12), 6(3), 4, 1, -5
Total: Syracuse 2 NC State 6
2p: I, 9, I, I, I, 3(8), -4, 2, 2(9), -3(s), I, 0(s)
Total: Syracuse 1 NC State 11
Second Down Total: Syracuse 3 NC State 17
3r: -2, 6(18)
Total: Syracuse 0 NC State 2
3p: 11, 6(8), I, 4(4), I, I, 8(8), 60TD, 21(14), I, 13TD, I, I, I, 26(7, 4(5), 11, -11(s)
Total: Syracuse 8 NC State 10
Third Down Total: Syracuse 8 NC State 12
4r: 2(1)
Total: Syracuse 1 NC State 0
4p: I
Total: Syracuse 0 NC State 1
Fourth Down Total: Syracuse 1 NC State 1
Total on running plays: Syracuse 3 NC State 19
Total on passing plays: Syracuse 16 NC State 32
Total on plays from scrimmage: Syracuse 19 NC State 51
Penalties not tacked on to plays: +5, +5 Syracuse 2 NC State 0
Game total when Syracuse had the ball: Syracuse 35 NC State 54
When NC State had the ball:
KO: SU 25, Returned for TD, SU 25, SU 25, SU 25, SU 27, SU 25
Total: Syracuse 2 NC State 5
P: 43 to SU 15, 31 to NCS 43, 61 to SU 7
Total: Syracuse 1 NC State 2
FG: Good from 31
Total: Syracuse 0 NC State 1
XP: Good, Good, Try-NG, Try-NG
Total: Syracuse 2 NC State 2
Kicking plays total: Syracuse 5 NC State 10
1r: 0, 14, 1, 7, 1, 6(5), 5, Fumble, 1, 6, 5, 8, 1, 9, 3, 3, 9, 2, 6, 2, 5, 0, 6, -2v
Total: Syracuse 13 NC State 11
1p: 14, 20, 5(s), Interception, -13(s), Safety, 9, I, 31TD, 5, I, 4
Total: Syracuse 5 NC State 7
First Down Total: Syracuse 18 NC State 18
2r: 6TD, 2(90, 3(5), 1(40, -17, 4(1), 1(10, 13(4), 1(5), 17(p), -6
Total: Syracuse 5 NC State 6
2p: -6, 12(s), I, 4(23), 15TD, 5, 6(9), -3, 39(7), 795), 9TD, I, I, I
Total: Syracuse 7 NC State 7
Second Down Total: Syracuse 12 NC State 13
3r: 7(2), -1
Total: Syracuse 1 NC State 1
3p: 26(15), 19(9), -10(s), 34(220, -8(s), 5(30, -1(s), 12, 26TD, 32(4), I
Total: Syracuse 4 NC State 7
Third Down Total: Syracuse 5 NC State 8
4r: none
Total: Syracuse 0 NC State 0
4p: none
Total: Syracuse 0 NC State 0
Fourth Down Total: Syracuse 0 NC State 0
Total on running plays: Syracuse 19 NC State 18
Total on passing plays: Syracuse 16 NC State 21
Total on plays from scrimmage: Syracuse 35 NC State 39
Penalties not tacked on to plays: +15, +5, +5, +15, +13, -5 Syracuse 1 NC State 5
Game total when NC State had the ball: Syracuse 41 NC State 54
Overall Game Total: Syracuse 76 NC State 108
Comments: How bad was it? We ran the 11 times on first down and never got more than 2 yards. 0-11. We ran 20 second down plays and got at least a minimal positive result 3 times. Against Louisville we could run the ball, (14-9) but couldn’t pass it, (4-16). In this game we could pass is some, (16-32) but could not run it (3-19). Basically anything the other team’s defense wants to take away, we can’t do. And this came against a team that even with Saturday’s performance is 97th in the country in total defense.
How did we make it close? A 98-yard kickoff return, a 60 yard pass, a safety and a turnover that led to a field goal. Also, State tried for two twice and we managed to stop both. That’s 23 points. We also had a 27 yard punt return that began a 43 yard drive to a touchdown. If we don’t get plays like that against Notre Dame, that game will be as bad as Louisville, probably worse.
Go figure: we were 25-20 on our 1st and 3rd down pass attempts but just 1-11 on second down pass attempts. We did have a nice second quarter run on their first down pass attempts: Interception, a sack for -13 yards and a safety. There were 8 penalties called that prevented or negated plays and 7 of them were against the defense. It was not a game for false starts.
Both teams had 14 possessions but that includes Trebor Pena’s kickoff return. Our average starting point was our 29. State’s average was their 27.5. We had a cumulative 920 yards to go to score, which multiplied by 14/13 = 991 yards. They had 1015 yards to score, so that ‘s +24 yards for us.
This was a 76-108 = -32 game. Here are the most similar games of the Dino Babers era:
2016: Syracuse 99 Louisville 132 = -33 We lost 28-62
2016: Syracuse 72 Wake Forest 101 = -29 We lost 9-28
2016: Syracuse 71 NC State 103 = -32 We lost 20-35
2017: Syracuse 86 Miami 119 = -33 We lost 19-27
2019: Syracuse 82 Maryland 112 = -30 We lost 20-63
2020: Syracuse 79 Duke 114 = -35 We lost 24-38
There’s a couple of legendary blow-outs in there but some close games, too. Losing ‘wining plays’ by 30 is not a prescription for success but the margin is determined by the big plays and the breaks.
- On first down, the offensive team wants to get at least a third of the way to a new first down: they will have two more plays before they might have to surrender the ball and if they gain that same amount of yards on each of those two plays, they’ll get the first down. If they don’t make it a third of the way to a new first down, the defense won the play.
- On second down, the offense wants to get at least halfway to a new first down by the same logic.
- On third and fourth down, they want to get the first down.
- Penalties, if added onto a play by the referees, are added on to the results above. If the offense gains 5 yards on first down but there was holding and they lost yardage instead, the defense won the play. If a running back made a 20 yard run on first and ten and the holding was 15 yards downfield, turning it into a 5 yard gain, that’s still a win for the offense. If the defense is penalized and it’s tacked on, again the net result is what is evaluated. The penalties I’ve listed negated the play entirely and are a “loss” for the penalized team and thus a win for their opponent. .
- If a penalty was not tacked onto a play, it’s a lost play for the team being penalized. I'll count them separate from the other plays from scrimmage because I don't know if the intended play before the penalty would have been a run or a pass - so i wouldn't know where to put it in the chart below.
- A turnover is, obviously, a win for the team that wound up with the ball.
- On a kick-off a touchback brings the ball out to the 25 yard line. Teams still seem to be trying to kick the ball into the end zone and avoid a runback if they can, so any kick-off that results in the receiving team starting between their goal line and their 25 is a win for the kicking team. Beyond that, the receiving team wins.
- On a punt, a touchback takes the ball out of the 20. So any punt that results in the other team taking over from their goal line to their 20 is a win for the punting team. If the next change in field position is at least 40 yards, the punting tam has also won the play.
- A successful place kick is, obviously, a win for the kicking team.
- Any play that results in a touchdown is, obviously, a win for that team that scores it.
- A “victory play” where a team accepts a loss just to let the clock run out, is a win for the offensive team.
I will indicate in parenthesis how many yards there were to go to get a new first down, (if other than 10), unless it was for no gain or negative yardage. If it was a touchdown, (“TD)” a scramble/sack (“S”) a victory play (“V”) or involved a penalty (P). I’ll treat a scramble or a sack as a passing play as the Cuse.com play by play now tells you when it’s either of those two. 1R means first down running plays. 1P means first down passing plays, etc.
Note: I us the play by play from Cuse.com which did not design ate scrambles for the North Carolina or Pittsburgh games so those plays were recorded here as runs since I couldn’t tell if they were planned QB runs or not. (ESPN didn’t note scrambles, either)
The North Carolina State game
When Syracuse had the ball:
KO: NCS 25, NCS 25, NCS 25, NCS 12, NCS 44, NCS 25
Total: Syracuse 5 NC State 1
P: 19 to NCS 20, 36 to NCS 49, 52 to NCS 25, 43 to NCS 13, 48 to NCS 31, 59 to NCS 32
Total: Syracuse 4 NC State 2
FG: Good from 45, Good from 23
Total: Syracuse 2 NC State 0
XP: Good, Good, Good
Total: Syracuse 3 NC State 0
Kicking plays total: Syracuse 14 NC State 3
1r: 0, 2, 0, 2, 0, 2, -2, 2, 1, 1, 2(9)
Total: Syracuse 0 NC State 11
1p: 12, I, I, 7, 14, 20(p), I, I, 2, I, 13, I, I, I, 8, 15, I
Total: Syracuse 7 NC State 10
First Down Total: Syracuse 7 NC State 21
2r: -5, 4(8), -8, 4(12), 6(3), 4, 1, -5
Total: Syracuse 2 NC State 6
2p: I, 9, I, I, I, 3(8), -4, 2, 2(9), -3(s), I, 0(s)
Total: Syracuse 1 NC State 11
Second Down Total: Syracuse 3 NC State 17
3r: -2, 6(18)
Total: Syracuse 0 NC State 2
3p: 11, 6(8), I, 4(4), I, I, 8(8), 60TD, 21(14), I, 13TD, I, I, I, 26(7, 4(5), 11, -11(s)
Total: Syracuse 8 NC State 10
Third Down Total: Syracuse 8 NC State 12
4r: 2(1)
Total: Syracuse 1 NC State 0
4p: I
Total: Syracuse 0 NC State 1
Fourth Down Total: Syracuse 1 NC State 1
Total on running plays: Syracuse 3 NC State 19
Total on passing plays: Syracuse 16 NC State 32
Total on plays from scrimmage: Syracuse 19 NC State 51
Penalties not tacked on to plays: +5, +5 Syracuse 2 NC State 0
Game total when Syracuse had the ball: Syracuse 35 NC State 54
When NC State had the ball:
KO: SU 25, Returned for TD, SU 25, SU 25, SU 25, SU 27, SU 25
Total: Syracuse 2 NC State 5
P: 43 to SU 15, 31 to NCS 43, 61 to SU 7
Total: Syracuse 1 NC State 2
FG: Good from 31
Total: Syracuse 0 NC State 1
XP: Good, Good, Try-NG, Try-NG
Total: Syracuse 2 NC State 2
Kicking plays total: Syracuse 5 NC State 10
1r: 0, 14, 1, 7, 1, 6(5), 5, Fumble, 1, 6, 5, 8, 1, 9, 3, 3, 9, 2, 6, 2, 5, 0, 6, -2v
Total: Syracuse 13 NC State 11
1p: 14, 20, 5(s), Interception, -13(s), Safety, 9, I, 31TD, 5, I, 4
Total: Syracuse 5 NC State 7
First Down Total: Syracuse 18 NC State 18
2r: 6TD, 2(90, 3(5), 1(40, -17, 4(1), 1(10, 13(4), 1(5), 17(p), -6
Total: Syracuse 5 NC State 6
2p: -6, 12(s), I, 4(23), 15TD, 5, 6(9), -3, 39(7), 795), 9TD, I, I, I
Total: Syracuse 7 NC State 7
Second Down Total: Syracuse 12 NC State 13
3r: 7(2), -1
Total: Syracuse 1 NC State 1
3p: 26(15), 19(9), -10(s), 34(220, -8(s), 5(30, -1(s), 12, 26TD, 32(4), I
Total: Syracuse 4 NC State 7
Third Down Total: Syracuse 5 NC State 8
4r: none
Total: Syracuse 0 NC State 0
4p: none
Total: Syracuse 0 NC State 0
Fourth Down Total: Syracuse 0 NC State 0
Total on running plays: Syracuse 19 NC State 18
Total on passing plays: Syracuse 16 NC State 21
Total on plays from scrimmage: Syracuse 35 NC State 39
Penalties not tacked on to plays: +15, +5, +5, +15, +13, -5 Syracuse 1 NC State 5
Game total when NC State had the ball: Syracuse 41 NC State 54
Overall Game Total: Syracuse 76 NC State 108
Comments: How bad was it? We ran the 11 times on first down and never got more than 2 yards. 0-11. We ran 20 second down plays and got at least a minimal positive result 3 times. Against Louisville we could run the ball, (14-9) but couldn’t pass it, (4-16). In this game we could pass is some, (16-32) but could not run it (3-19). Basically anything the other team’s defense wants to take away, we can’t do. And this came against a team that even with Saturday’s performance is 97th in the country in total defense.
How did we make it close? A 98-yard kickoff return, a 60 yard pass, a safety and a turnover that led to a field goal. Also, State tried for two twice and we managed to stop both. That’s 23 points. We also had a 27 yard punt return that began a 43 yard drive to a touchdown. If we don’t get plays like that against Notre Dame, that game will be as bad as Louisville, probably worse.
Go figure: we were 25-20 on our 1st and 3rd down pass attempts but just 1-11 on second down pass attempts. We did have a nice second quarter run on their first down pass attempts: Interception, a sack for -13 yards and a safety. There were 8 penalties called that prevented or negated plays and 7 of them were against the defense. It was not a game for false starts.
Both teams had 14 possessions but that includes Trebor Pena’s kickoff return. Our average starting point was our 29. State’s average was their 27.5. We had a cumulative 920 yards to go to score, which multiplied by 14/13 = 991 yards. They had 1015 yards to score, so that ‘s +24 yards for us.
This was a 76-108 = -32 game. Here are the most similar games of the Dino Babers era:
2016: Syracuse 99 Louisville 132 = -33 We lost 28-62
2016: Syracuse 72 Wake Forest 101 = -29 We lost 9-28
2016: Syracuse 71 NC State 103 = -32 We lost 20-35
2017: Syracuse 86 Miami 119 = -33 We lost 19-27
2019: Syracuse 82 Maryland 112 = -30 We lost 20-63
2020: Syracuse 79 Duke 114 = -35 We lost 24-38
There’s a couple of legendary blow-outs in there but some close games, too. Losing ‘wining plays’ by 30 is not a prescription for success but the margin is determined by the big plays and the breaks.
