Winning Plays- North Carolina

[SWC75]

This season I will once again be charting Syracuse’s games in terms of “winning plays”. I look at the results of each play and decide which team got the minimum they wanted out of the play. Rather than making instinctive judgments, I use a formula:

- On first down, the offensive team wants to get at least a third of the way to a new first down: they will have two more plays before they might have to surrender the ball and if they gain that same amount of yards on each of those two plays, they’ll get the first down. If they don’t make it a third of the way to a new first down, the defense won the play.
- On second down, the offense wants to get at least halfway to a new first down by the same logic.
- On third and fourth down, they want to get the first down.
- Penalties, if added onto a play by the referees, are added on to the results above. If the offense gains 5 yards on first down but there was holding and they lost yardage instead, the defense won the play. If a running back made a 20 yard run on first and ten and the holding was 15 yards downfield, turning it into a 5 yard gain, that’s still a win for the offense. If the defense is penalized and it’s tacked on, again the net result is what is evaluated. The penalties I’ve listed negated the play entirely and are a “loss” for the penalized team and thus a win for their opponent. .
- If a penalty was not tacked onto a play, it’s a lost play for the team being penalized. I'll count them separate from the other plays from scrimmage because I don't know if the intended play before the penalty would have been a run or a pass - so i wouldn't know where to put it in the chart below.
- A turnover is, obviously, a win for the team that wound up with the ball.
- On a kick-off a touchback brings the ball out to the 25 yard line. Teams still seem to be trying to kick the ball into the end zone and avoid a runback if they can, so any kick-off that results in the receiving team starting between their goal line and their 25 is a win for the kicking team. Beyond that, the receiving team wins.
- On a punt, a touchback takes the ball out of the 20. So any punt that results in the other team taking over from their goal line to their 20 is a win for the punting team. If the next change in field position is at least 40 yards, the punting tam has also won the play.
- A successful place kick is, obviously, a win for the kicking team.
- Any play that results in a touchdown is, obviously, a win for that team that scores it.
- A “victory play” where a team accepts a loss just to let the clock run out, is a win for the offensive team.

I will indicate in parenthesis how many yards there were to go to get a new first down, (if other than 10), unless it was for no gain or negative yardage. If it was a touchdown, (“TD)” a scramble/sack (“S”) a victory play (“V”) or involved a penalty (P). I’ll treat a scramble or a sack as a passing play as the Cuse.com play by play now tells you when it’s either of those two.0 1R means first down running plays. 1P means first down passing plays, etc.

When SYRACUSE had the ball:

KO: NC 25, NC 25, NC 25, NC 23, NC 25
Total: Syracuse 5 North Carolina 0
P: 39 to NC 44, 68 to NC 20p, 32 to NC 33, 38 to NC 48, NC TD, 50 to NC 9, 44 to NC 36, 42 to NC 31
Total: Syracuse 3 North Carolina 4
FG: No Good from 44, Good from 25, Good from 46
Total: Syracuse 2 North Carolina 1
XP: Good, Good, Good, Good
Total: Syracuse 4 North Carolina 0
Kicking plays total: Syracuse 14 North Carolina 5

1r: 10,4, 24, 6, 4, 2, 5, 5, 1TD, 7, 0, 2, 2, 4, Fumble, 2(6)
Total: Syracuse 11 North Carolina 5
1p: 3, I, 6, I, 22, 15, I, 68, I, I, I, 9, -1, 9, -6s, 50, 5, 3, I, 42TD, I, Interception, I, I, 9
Total: Syracuse 10 North Carolina 15
First Down Total: Syracuse 21 North Carolina 20
2r: 6, -2, 16TD, -1, 2(8), 6(1), 22(6), 4(1)
Total: Syracuse 5 North Carolina 3
2p: I, 15(4), I, 12(5), 9(5), 4(3), 1, I, I, 2, 2(11), -2s, I, 6(5), I, 16, 13, 25TD, I, 4TD
Total: Syracuse 9 North Carolina 11
Second Down Total: Syracuse 14 North Carolina 14
3r: 3(8), 1(6), 10(1)
Total: Syracuse 1 North Carolina 2
3p: 16(6), 9, 10, 5(2), 5(20), 4(3), 6(7), 0, I, I, 18(2), 19, I, I, I, -6s
Total: Syracuse North Carolina
Third Down Total: Syracuse 9 North Carolina 7
4r: 1(1), 6(1), -1
Total: Syracuse 2 North Carolina 1
4p: I
Total: Syracuse 1 North Carolina 0
Fourth Down Total: Syracuse 3 North Carolina 0

Total on running plays: Syracuse 17 North Carolina 10
Total on passing plays: Syracuse 22 North Carolina 36
Total on plays from scrimmage: Syracuse 39 North Carolina 46

Penalties not tacked on to plays: +4, -10, +10, -5, -5, -10 Syracuse 2 North Carolina 4

Game total when SYRACUSE had the ball: Syracuse 55 North Carolina 55


When NORTH CAROLINA had the ball:

KO: SU 21, SU 6, SU 25, SU 25, SU 30, SU 25
Total: Syracuse 1 North Carolina 5
P: 43 to SU 13, 10 to NC 32, 55 to SU 14p, 50 to SU 21, 42 to SU 42, 42 to SU 28
Total: Syracuse 1 North Carolina 5
FG: No Good from 50, Good from 34, Good from 25, No Good from 45, Good from 48
Total: Syracuse 2 North Carolina 3
XP: Good, Good, Good, Good
Total: Syracuse 0 North Carolina 4
Kicking plays total: Syracuse 4 North Carolina 17

1r: 5, 0, 5, 4, 1, 2, 0, 2, -1, 12TD, 8, 14, 7, 56, 2, 5, 3
Total: Syracuse 8 North Carolina 9
1p: 15, 6TD, 7, I, 6, 23, 6, 6, 55, I, Interception, 14, I, Fumble, 9, 11, 6, I, I, 5, I, -5, I
Total: Syracuse 10 North Carolina 13
First Down Total: Syracuse 18 North Carolina 22
2r: 7, 0, 1(3), -10, 1(4), 1, 0, 8, 0, 15, 0, 0, 6(4), 11(10), 1(5)
Total: Syracuse 11 North Carolina 4
2p: I, 19(5), I, 7(8), 9, 3(11), I, 5(1), 7, I, I, 18(15), 9TD, I
Total: Syracuse 7 North Carolina 7
Second Down Total: Syracuse 18 North Carolina 11
3r: 8(14), 0, 2(1), -3, 0, 0
Total: Syracuse 6 North Carolina 1
3p: 16(6), 9, 10, 5(2), 5(20), 4(3), 6(7), 0, I, I, 18(2), 19, I, I, I,-6s
Total: Syracuse 9 North Carolina 7
Third Down Total: Syracuse 15 North Carolina 8
4r: 1(1), 6(1), -1
Total: Syracuse 1 North Carolina 2
4p: I
Total: Syracuse 1 North Carolina 0
Fourth Down Total: Syracuse 2 North Carolina 2

Total on running plays: Syracuse 26 North Carolina 16
Total on passing plays: Syracuse 27 North Carolina 27
Total on plays from scrimmage: Syracuse 53 North Carolina 43

Penalties not tacked on to plays: -5 Syracuse 1 North Carolina 0

Game total when NORTH CAROLINA had the ball: Syracuse 58 North Carolina 60

Overall game total: Syracuse 113 North Carolina 114

Comments: This was as close as a game could be. Not only was it two overtimes but they won exactly one more play than we did. But we got 3 more points.

Dino said that might have been the first game where we lost special teams. On our kicks we were 14-5, the worst of the season. They were 17-4 so overall we were 18-22 on kicking plays. Both teams, (before overtime), averaged getting the ball on their own 29. The big play, of course, was the punt return for a score. When we don’t win special teams, (Pitt and UNC), we have to scramble to beat even mediocre teams.

Eric Dungey won 13 of 39 passing attempts, Tommy DeVito 9 of 18. Tommy had three scores and an interception. Eric had none of either but ran for a score.

I was afraid that the Tar Heels would pound us with their running game the way Clemson and Pitt did. They did get some big plays – a 56 yarder and four other +10s including a 12 yard TD. But they had no less than ten running plays that gained exactly zero yards- the runner was tackled right at the line of scrimmage. Five others were stopped behind the line of scrimmage. That’s an amazing number of stuffed running plays.

 

[SWC75]

GAME BY GAME and TOTALS FOR THE YEAR

When SYRACUSE had the ball:

KO: 10-0 + 11-0 + 6-1 + 10-0 + 6-0 + 8-0 + 5-0 = 56-1
P: 4-0 + 1-1 + 4-1 + 4-0 + 7-0 + 3-2 + 3-4 = 26-8
FG: 2-0 + 2-0 + 3-1 + 3-0 + 3-0 + 3-0 + 2-1 = 18-2
XP: 7-0 + 8-0 + 3-0 + 6-0 + 2-0 + 4-0 + 4-0 = 34-0
Kicking plays total: 23-0 + 22-1 + 16-3 + 23-0 + 18-0 + 18-2 + 14-5 = 134-11

1r: 14-16 + 15-7 + 13-13 + 16-7 + 5-5 + 13-8 + 11-5 = 87-61
1p: 3-5 + 9-6 + 6-4 + 11-5 + 9-6 + 5-9 + 10-15 = 53-50
First Down Total: 17-21 + 24-13 + 19-17 + 27-12 + 14-11 + 18-17 + 21-20 = 140-111
2r: 9-6 + 8-5 + 5-8 + 8-3 + 6-2 + 8-5 + 5-3 = 49-32
2p: 5-9 + 5-9 + 6-9 + 4-5 + 6-10 + 5-8 + 9-11 = 40-61
Second Down Total: 14-15 + 13-14 + 11-17 + 12-8 + 12-12 + 13-13 + 14-14 = 89-93
3r: 7-6 + 2-0 + 6-5 + 3-1 + 1-5 + 5-1 + 1-2 = 25-20
3p: 1-4 + 5-6 + 4-5 + 1-7 + 2-7 + 5-7 + 3-9 = 21-45
Third Down Total: 8-10 + 7-6 + 10-10 + 4-8 + 3-12 + 10-8 + 4-11 = 46-65
4r: 2-1 + 1-1 + 0-1 + 0-0 + 1-0 + 0-0 + 0-0 = 4-3
4p: 0-0 + 1-0 + 0-0 + 1-0 + 0-1 + 0-0 + 0-1 = 2-2
Fourth Down Total: 2-1 + 2-1 + 0-1 + 1-0 + 1-1 + 0-0 + 0-1 = 6-5

Total on running plays: 32-29 + 26-13 + 24-27 + 27-11 +13-12 + 26-14 + 17-10 = 165-116
Total on passing plays: 9-18 + 20-21 + 16-18 + 17-17 + 17-24 + 15-24 + 22-36 = 116-158
Total on plays from scrimmage: 41-47+ 46-34 + 40-45 + 44-28 + 30-36 + 41-38 + 39-46 = 281-274

Penalties not tacked on to plays: 5-2 + 3-5 +3-5+ 0-8 + 0-3 + 3-1 + 2-4 = 16-28

Game total when SYRACUSE had the ball: 69-49 + 71-40 + 59-53 + 67-36 + 48-39 + 62-41 + 55-55 = 431-313


When OPPONENT had the ball:

KO: 6-1 + 3-0 + 1-1 + 2-2 + 0-6 + 0-8 + 1-5 = 13-23
P: 3-2 + 7-1 + 4-5 + 3-7 + 1-3 + 3-2 + 1-5 = 22-25
FG: 1-0 + 0-1 + 0-0 + 0-0 + 1-2 + 0-3 + 2-3 = 4-9
XP: 0-7 + 0-1 + 0-1 + 0-3 + 0-3 + 0-5 + 0-4 = 0-24
Kicking plays total: 10-10 + 10-3 + 5-7 + 5-12 +2-14 + 3-18 + 4-17 = 39-81

1r: 8-7 + 16-4 + 5-4 + 9-10 + 6-19 + 9-15 + 8-9 = 61-68
1p: 10-11 + 6-3 + 10-6 + 4-7 + 6-8 + 5-4 + 10-13 = 51-52
First Down Total: 18-18 + 22-7 + 15-10 + 13-17 + 12-27 + 14-19 + 18-22 = 112-120
2r: 3-6 + 11-3 + 5-1 + 5-6 + 7-12 + 7-8 + 11-4 = 49-40
2p: 5-3 + 4-6 + 10-4 + 6-6 + 5-3 + 4-3 + 7-7 = 41-32
Second Down Total: 8-9 + 15-9 + 15-5 + 11-12 + 12-15 + 11-11 + 18-11 = 90-72
3r: 1-1 + 3-2 + 3-1 + 2-1 + 2-3 + 2-2 + 6-1= 19-11
3p: 1-5 + 10-3 + 10-0 + 8-3 + 8-2 + 7-1+ 9-7 = 53-21
Third Down Total: 2-6 + 13-5 + 13-1 + 10-4 + 10-5 + 9-3 + 15-8 = 72-32
4r: 0-0 + 1-1 + 0-0 + 0-1 + 0-1 + 0-1 + 1-2 = 2-6
4p: 1-1 + 0-0 + 1-0 + 0-0 + 0-1 + 0-0 + 1-0 = 3-2
Fourth Down Total: 1-1 + 1-1 + 1-0 + 0-1 + 0-2 + 0-1 + 2-2 = 5-8

Total on running plays: 12-14 + 31-10 + 13-6 + 16-18 + 15-35 + 18-26 + 26-16 = 131-125
Total on passing plays: 17-20 + 20-12 + 31-10 + 18-16 + 19-14 + 16-8 + 27-27 = 148-107
Total on plays from scrimmage: 29-34 + 51-22 + 44-16 + 34-34 + 34-49 + 34-34 + 53-43 = 279-232

Penalties not tacked on to plays: 1-3 + 7-0 + 5-1 + 3-1+ 2-0 + 0-4 + 1-0= 19-9

Game total when OPPONENT had the ball: 40-47, 68-25, 54-24, 42-47+ 38-63 + 37-56 + 58-60 = 337-322
+ 113-114 = 768-634

Comment: Our punting has fallen off the last two games: Sterling was 20-2 in the first five games, 6-6 since. We were 30-32 on the opponent’s kicks in the first four games, 9-49 since.

It didn’t seem so against Clemson and Pitt but we are doing much better on first down runs, (87-61) and our opposition is (61-68). That sets up third and short or at least makeable situation. Overall our running game is 165-11 vs. 131-125 for the other guys. But our passing game is only 116-158 and only 21-45 on third down. (That may be about to change.) Our pass defense has been pretty good, 148-107, especially on third down 53-21.

HISTORICAL WINNING PLAYS
(Game totals only)

2011
Syracuse 101 Wake Forest 87 = +14
Syracuse 92 Rhode Island 65 = +27
Syracuse 75 Southern California 90 = -15
Syracuse 96 Toledo 88 = +8
Syracuse 103 Rutgers 99 = +4
Syracuse 79 Tulane 99 = -20
Syracuse 90 West Virginia 84 = +6
Syracuse 74 Louisville 83 = -9
Syracuse 84 Connecticut 86 = -2
Syracuse 92 South Florida 106 = -14
Syracuse 83 Cincinnati 104 = -21
Syracuse 87 Pittsburgh 93 = -6
TOTAL: Syracuse 1,056 Opponents 1,117 = -61 We 'won' 5 of 12 games.

2012
Syracuse 105 Northwestern 116 = -11
Syracuse 92 Southern California 98 = -6
Syracuse 93 Stony Brook 82 = +11
Syracuse 82 Minnesota 95 = -13
Syracuse 85 Pittsburgh 76 = +9
Syracuse 93 Rutgers 73 = +20
Syracuse 103 Connecticut 70 = +33
Syracuse 115 South Florida 92 = +23
Syracuse 96 Cincinnati 122 = -26
Syracuse 103 Louisville 86 = +17
Syracuse 92 Missouri 98 = -6
Syracuse 98 Temple 81 = -+17
Syracuse 105 West Virginia 82 +23
TOTAL: Syracuse 1,262 Opponents 1,171 = +91 We 'won' 8 of 13 games.

2013
Syracuse 75 Penn State 113 = -38
Syracuse 92 Northwestern 114 - = -22
Syracuse 115 Wagner 52 = +63
Syracuse 107 Tulane 76 = +31
Syracuse 64 Clemson 136 = -72
Syracuse 111 N C State 85 = +26
Syracuse 46 Georgia Tech 113 = -67
Syracuse 108 Wake Forest 81 = +27
Syracuse 92 Maryland 88 = +4
Syracuse 55 Florida State 104 = -49
Syracuse 80 Pittsburgh 96 = -16
Syracuse 100 Boston College 87 = +13
Syracuse 99 Minnesota 79 +20
TOTAL: Syracuse 1,144 Opponents 1,224 = -80 We 'won' 7 of 13 games.

2014
Syracuse 91 Villanova 103 = -12
Syracuse 99 Central Michigan 76 = +23
Syracuse 91 Maryland 91 = 0
Syracuse 71 Notre Dame 114 = -43
Syracuse 71 Louisville 100 = -29
Syracuse 80 Florida State 101 = -21
Syracuse 86 Wake Forest 77 = +9
Syracuse 75 Clemson 102 = -27
Syracuse 92 N C State 101 = -9
Syracuse 78 Duke 98 = -20
Syracuse 46 Pittsburgh 114 = -68
Syracuse 72 Boston College 78 = -6
TOTAL: Syracuse 952 Opponents 1,155 = -203 We 'won' 2 of 12 games, with one even.

2015
Syracuse 96 Rhode Island 56 = +40
Syracuse 83 Wake Forest 83 = 0
Syracuse 84 Central Michigan 91 = -7
Syracuse 84 Louisiana State 89 = -5
Syracuse 80 South Florida 93 = -13
Syracuse 86 Virginia 97 = -11
Syracuse 70 Pittsburgh 89 = -19
Syracuse 84 Florida State 100 = -16
Syracuse 74 Louisville 110 = -36
Syracuse 83 Clemson 105 = -22
Syracuse 78 North Carolina State 100 = -22
Syracuse 89 Boston College 78 = +11
TOTAL: Syracuse 991 Opponents 1091 = -100 We 'won' 2 of 12 games with one even.

2016
Syracuse 101 Colgate 74 = +27
Syracuse 99 Louisville 132 = -33
Syracuse 95 South Florida 116 = -21
Syracuse 91 Connecticut 99 = -8
Syracuse 98 Notre Dame 111 = -13
Syracuse 72 Wake Forest 101 = -29
Syracuse 103 Virginia Tech 104 = -1
Syracuse 93 Boston College 84 = +9
Syracuse 74 Clemson 120 = -46
Syracuse 71 North Carolina State 103 = -32
Syracuse 71 Florida State 120 = -49
Syracuse 107 Pittsburgh 118 = -11
TOTAL: Syracuse 1075 Opponent 1282 = -207 We 'won' 2 of 12 games.

2017
Syracuse 132 Central Connecticut 65 = +67
Syracuse 104 Middle Tennessee 98 = +6
Syracuse 107 Central Michigan 100 = +7
Syracuse 80 Louisiana State 103 = -23
Syracuse 93 North Carolina State 112 = -19
Syracuse 97 Pittsburgh 96 = +1
Syracuse 95 Clemson 97= -2
Syracuse 86 Miami 119 = -33
Syracuse 90 Florida State 108 = -18
Syracuse 120 Wake Forest 125 = -5
Syracuse 96 Louisville 100 = -4
Syracuse 77 Boston College 87 = -10
TOTAL: Syracuse 1177 Opponents 1210 = -33 We’ve ‘won’ 4 of12 games

2018
Syracuse 109 Western Michigan 96 = +13
Syracuse 139 Wagner 65 = +74
Syracuse 113 Florida State 77 = +36
Syracuse 109 Connecticut 83 = +26
Syracuse 86 Clemson 102= -16
Syracuse 99 Pittsburgh 97 = +2
Syracuse 113 Pittsburgh 114 We’ve ‘won’ 5 of 7 games

Totals since 2011: Syracuse has won 8,425 plays, (48.7%) and 34 games, (36.6%). The opposition has won 8,884 plays and 57 games with 2 games even. We’ve seen the opposition obtain their goals on 459 more plays than we have in 93 games, an average of 4.94 plays a game.

 

[upperdeck]

the running plays they worked were less about being blocked and more about confusion by the D. thats a much better thing than the pounding and not getting off blocks that led to issues vs Pitt and Clemson. we also did much better on the site adjustments for the motion plays as the game went on, but then UNC threw some wrinkles into that too and broke a couple nice runs.

Two issues there, one did someone make a mistake or 2 was it the D we had called really didnt have the gap coverage to handle the play.. good thing is they have film on it now and can figure it out.

They will see the jet sweep more going forward so they need to figure it out.. we must be doing something different because other teams handle ours better than we do