Winning Plays - Notre Dame

[SWC75]

This season I will once again be charting Syracuse’s games in terms of “winning plays”. I look at the results of each play and decide which team got the minimum they wanted out of the play. Rather than making instinctive judgments, I use a formula:

- On first down, the offensive team wants to get at least a third of the way to a new first down: they will have two more games before they might have to surrender the ball and if they gain that same amount of yards on each of those two plays, they’ll get the first down. If they don’t make it a third of the way to a new first down, the defense won the play.

- On second down, the offense wants to get halfway to a new first down by the same logic.

- On third and fourth down, they want to get the new first down.

- Penalties, if added onto a play by the referees, are added on to the results above. If the offense gains 5 yards on first down but there was holding and they lost yardage instead, the defense won the play. If a running back made a 20 yard run on first and ten and the holding was 15 yards downfield, turning it into a 5 yard gain, that’s still a win for the offense. If the defense is penalized and it’s tacked on, again the net result is what is evaluated.

- If a penalty was not tacked onto a play, it’s a lost play for the team being penalized. I'll count them separate from the other plays from scrimmage because I don't know if the intended play before the penalty would have been a run or a pass - so i wouldn't know where to put it in the chart below.

- A turnover is, obviously, a win for the team that wound up with the ball.

- On a kick-off a touchback brings the ball out to the 25 yard line. Teams still seem to be trying to kick the ball into the end zone and avoid a runback if they can, so any kick-off that results in the receiving team starting between their goal line and their 25 is a win for the kicking team.

- On a punt, a touchback takes the ball out of the 20. So any punt that results in the other team taking over from their goal line to their 20 is a win for the punting team. If the next change in field positon is at least 40 yards, the punting tam has also won the play.

- A successful place kick is, obviously a win for the kicking team.

- Any play that results in a touchdown is, obviously, a win for that team that scores it.

- A “victory play” where a team accepts a loss just to let the clock run out, is a win for the offensive team.

I will indicate in parenthesis how many yards there were to go to get a new first down, (if other than 10), unless it was for no gain or negative yardage. If it was a touchdown, (“TD)” a sack (“S”) a victory play (“V”) or involved a penalty (P). I’m undecided about whether to count a scramble as a running play or passing play. For now, I’ll count it as a running play and put an ‘S’ next to it in case I change my mind. Thus an S in running plays is a scramble, an S in passing plays a sack. 1R means first down running plays. 1P means first down passing plays, etc.

When SYRACUSE had the ball:

KO: ND 21, ND 26, 93TD, ND 29, ND 33, SU48 (OSK)
Total: Syracuse 1 Notre Dame 5
P: 37 to ND 30, 13 to ND 44, 42 to ND 30, 48 to ND 49, 33 to ND 5, 44 to ND 14, 39 to ND 30, 37 to ND 20, 36 to ND 7
Total: Syracuse 6 Notre Dame 3
FG: No Good from 40
Total: Syracuse 0 Notre Dame 1
XP: No Good, (blocked and returned for 2 points), Good, Good, Good, for 2 No Good
Total: Syracuse 3 Notre Dame 2
Kicking plays total: Syracuse 10 Notre Dame 11

1r: 3(6), 8, 2, 16(P), 2, 1(7), 3, 0, 2, 4(S), 5, 0, 9, 3
Total: Syracuse 6 Notre Dame 8
1p: 25, 6, 18, 2, 5, 10, 9, -1(S), 4, 5, I, 14, I, I, I, 15, I, 12, I, 7, 10, I, 5, -1
Total: Syracuse 14 Notre Dame 10
First Down Total: Syracuse 20 Notre Dame 18
2r: 13, 3TD, 2(5), 18(1), 5(6), 1(6), -4, 4(7), -1, 6(3), 3(11-S), 5TD, 6(1), 2(7)
Total: Syracuse 8 Notre Dame 6
2p: I, -1, I, 23(13), 36(11), I, 15, 14TD, 11, I, I, 6(10), 4(8), 13, I, 10(5), 10(5)
Total: Syracuse 9 Notre Dame 7
Second Down Total: Syracuse 17 Notre Dame 13
3r: 3(8), 0, 1, 10(3), -7, 0, 11(6)
Total: Syracuse 2 Notre Dame 5
3p: 72TD, I, I, -3, I, I, 0, I, I
Total: Syracuse 1 Notre Dame 8
Third Down Total: Syracuse 3 Notre Dame 13
4r: 1TD
Total: Syracuse 1 Notre Dame 0
4p: none
Total: Syracuse 0 Notre Dame 0
Fourth Down Total: Syracuse 1 Notre Dame 0

Total on running plays: Syracuse 17 Notre Dame 19
Total on passing plays: Syracuse 24 Notre Dame 25
Total on plays from scrimmage: Syracuse 41 Notre Dame 44

Penalties not tacked on to plays: +5, -5, +5, -5, -5, -10 Syracuse 2 Notre Dame 4

Game total when SYRACUSE had the ball: Syracuse 53 Notre Dame 59

Comments: Teams usually dominate their own kicking game but we lost it, 10-11. I was not much impressed with our punting game but it actually did get better after Hofrichter went to the rugby punts. It was our kick-offs that were terrible. We also had a blocked extra point which I’ve variously heard attributed to the left side of the line being “caved in” and Cole Murphy kicking it low. He also missed a field goal although that had plenty of leg. After one of the made extra points he stumbled but Coach Babers still insists he isn’t hurt.

What jumps pout at you from the scrimmage plays is our terrible performance on third down passes, an area where we had been doing well this year, (31-23 going in). In this game we hit a 72 yard touchdown on the first one and then had 6 incomplete passes, a 0 gain and a loss of three yards.

When NOTRE DAME had the ball:

KO: SU 25, SU 21, SU 26, SU 23, SU 36, SU 25, SU 21, SU 25, SU 25
Total: Syracuse 2 Notre Dame 7
P: 27 to SU 22, 42 to SU 1, -40 to ND 14, 17 to ND 44, 22 to ND 34
Total: Syracuse 4 Notre Dame 1
FG: Good from 31, Good from 39, No Good from 39
Total: Syracuse 1 Notre Dame 2
XP: Good, Good, Good, Good, Good, Good
Total: Syracuse 0 Notre Dame 6
Kicking plays total: Syracuse 7 Notre Dame 16

1r: 7, 1, 0, 9, 0, 1(4), 2, 1, 1, 9, 4, -1, 0(S), 1, 28, 1, 3, 3, 2
Total: Syracuse 14 Notre Dame 5
1p: 79TD, 11, I, I, 44, 20, 24, 16, I, 7, INT, 14(6), 54TD, 11, -3, I, 13, 8, 3(8), 8(7)
Total: Syracuse 7 Notre Dame 13
First Down Total: Syracuse 21 Notre Dame 18
2r: 0, 11, 8, 7, 3TD, 5, 59TD, 4(9), 9, 5(7)
Total: Syracuse 2 Notre Dame 8
2p: 13(9), I, 23, 19(9), -8(S), 8(1), 25(15), I, I, 6, 2(9)
Total: Syracuse 5 Notre Dame 6
Second Down Total: Syracuse 7 Notre Dame 14
3r: 1(2), 5(1), 2, 0
Total: Syracuse 2 Notre Dame 1
3p: 67TD, I, I, -11(S), 10(13), I, I
Total: Syracuse 6 Notre Dame 1
Third Down Total: Syracuse 8 Notre Dame 2
4r: none
Total: Syracuse 0 Notre Dame 0
4p: 0
Total: Syracuse1 Notre Dame 0
Fourth Down Total: Syracuse 1 Notre Dame 0

Total on running plays: Syracuse 18 Notre Dame 14
Total on passing plays: Syracuse 19 Notre Dame 20
Total on plays from scrimmage: Syracuse 37 Notre Dame 34

Penalties not tacked on to plays: +15, -5, +15 Syracuse 1 Notre Dame 2

Game total when NOTRE DAME had the ball: Syracuse 45 Notre Dame 52

Overall game total: Syracuse 98 Notre Dame 111

Comments: Notre Dame was not without its troubles on special teams, either, mostly thanks to Brisley Estime, who returned three punts for an average of 43 yards. They missed a field goal, too. And, amazingly, we won 37 defensive plays from scrimmage to their 34. But when we lost, we lost big with plays of 28, 79TD, 44, 29, 24, 54TD, 23, 25, and 67TD plus a 93 yard kickoff return. A lot of stops can’t make up for that. But our defense wasn’t completely terrible. They had the same record on third down passes we did: a 67 yard TD followed by one ten yard pass when they needed 13, for incompletions and a sack for an 11 yard loss. They were the better team but they knew they were in a game.

 

[SWC75]

GAME BY GAME and TOTALS FOR THE YEAR

When SYRACUSE had the ball:

KO: 5-3, 3-1, 3-2, 3-2, 1-5 = 15-13
P: 3-0, 8-4, 3-2, 2-3, 6-3 = 22-12
FG: 4-0, 0-1, 2-0, 1-2, 0-1 = 7-4
XP: 3-0, 4-0, 2-0, 4-0, 3-2 = 16-2
Kicking plays total: 15-3, 15-6, 10-4, 10-7, 10-11 = 60-31

1r: 5-10, 6-12, 11-14, 4-11, 6-8 = 32-55
1p: 12-7, 8-12, 7-10, 9-5, 14-10 = 50-44
First Down Total: 17-17, 14-24, 18-24, 13-16, 20-18 = 82-99
2r: 3-8, 5-7, 9-9, 1-4, 8-6 = 26-34
2p: 8-7, 8-13, 8-5, 9-8, 9-7 = 42-40
Second Down Total: 11-15, 13-20, 17-14, 10-12, 17-13 = 68-74
3r: 3-3, 6-1, 2-6, 3-2, 2-5 = 16-17
3p: 6-6, 6-9, 13-4, 6-4, 1-8 = 32-31
Third Down Total: 9-9, 12-10, 15-10, 9-6, 3-13 = 48-48
4r: 1-0, 0-0, 1-1, 0-0, 1-0 = 3-1
4p: 2-0, 0-1, 1-2, 0-0, 0-0 = 3-3
Fourth Down Total: 3-0, 0-1, 2-3, 0-0, 1-0 = 6-4

Total on running plays: 12-21, 17-20, 23-30, 8-17, 17-19 = 77-107
Total on passing plays: 28-20, 22-35, 29-21, 24-17, 24-25 = 127-118
Total on plays from scrimmage: 40-41, 39-55, 52-51, 32-34, 41-44 = 204-225

Penalties not tacked on to plays: 0-4, 3-3, 2-7, 0-2, 2-4 = 7-20

Game total when SYRACUSE had the ball: 55-48, 57-64, 64-62, 42-43, 53-59 = -271-276

Comment: Our high-powered offense runs a lot of plays but is so far winning only 48% of the plays from scrimmage. First down runs are the biggest problem, (32-55). We are doing well on third down (48-48). Strangely we are doing well on third and fourth down runs, (19-18). Obviously we must not have far to go.


When OPPONENT had the ball:

KO: 0-2, 2-8, 2-6, 3-2, 2-7 = 9-25
P: 4-7, 1-5, 1-5, 1-4, 4-1 = 11-22
FG: 0-0, 1-2, 0-1, 0-1, 1-2 = 2-6
XP: 0-1, 0-8, 0-6, 0-3, 0-6 = 0-24
Kicking plays total: 4-10, 4-23, 3-18, 4-10, 7-16 = 22-77

1r: 10-4, 6-20, 4-12, 9-11, 14-5 = 43-52
1p: 4-4, 8-9, 7-8, 9-5, 7-13 = 35-39
First Down Total: 14-8, 14-29, 11-20, 18-16, 21-18 = 78-91
2r: 9-3, 4-6, 4-8, 5-8, 2-8 = 24-33
2p: 6-0, 8-4, 4-2, 8-9, 5-6 = 31-21
Second Down Total: 15-3, 12-10, 8-10, 13-17, 7-14 = 55-54
3r: 0-2, 1-3, 1-2, 4-2, 2-1 = 8-10
3p: 11-3, 8-3, 7-2, 8-7, 6-1 = 40-16
Third Down Total: 11-5, 9-6, 8-4, 12-9, 8-2 = 48-26
4r: 0-0, 0-0, 0-1, 1-2, 0-0 1-3
4p: 0-0, 0-0, 0-0, 1-2, 1-0 2-2
Fourth Down Total: 0-0, 0-0, 0-1, 2-4, 1-0 = 3-5

Total on running plays: 19-9, 11-29, 9-23, 19-23, 18-14 = 76-98
Total on passing plays: 21-7, 24-16, 18-12, 26-23, 19-20 = 108-78
Total on plays from scrimmage: 40-16, 35-45, 27-35, 45-46, 37-34 = 184-176

Penalties not tacked on to plays: 2-0, 3-0, 1-1, 0-0, 1-2 = 7-3

Game total when OPPONENT had the ball: 46-26, 42-68, 31-54, 49-56, 45-52 = 213-256

Overall Game Total: 101-74, 99-132, 95-116, 91-99, 98-111 = 484-532

Comment: Incredibly we have won more defensive plays from scrimmage than offensive plays (184-176), although that is skewed by the Colgate game. Still, we haven’t bene beaten by an opponent that dominated play after play. It’s the big plays from scrimmage and the special teams breakdowns that have hurt us. Ironically, considering our obvious problems defending passes we are excellent against this down passed (40-16).

 

[SWC75]

HISTORICAL WINNING PLAYS
(Game totals only)

2011
Syracuse 101 Wake Forest 87
Syracuse 92 Rhode Island 65
Syracuse 75 USC 90
Syracuse 96 Toledo 88
Syracuse 103 Rutgers 99
Syracuse 79 Tulane 99
Syracuse 90 West Virginia 84
Syracuse 74 Louisville 83
Syracuse 84 Connecticut 86
Syracuse 92 South Florida 106
Syracuse 83 Cincinnati 104
Syracuse 87 Pittsburgh 93
TOTAL: Syracuse 1,056 Opponents 1,117 We 'won' 4 of 12 games.

2012
Syracuse 105 Northwestern 116
Syracuse 92 USC 98
Syracuse 93 Stony Brook 82
Syracuse 82 Minnesota 95
Syracuse 85 Pittsburgh 76
Syracuse 93 Rutgers 73
Syracuse 103 Connecticut 70
Syracuse 115 South Florida 92
Syracuse 96 Cincinnati 122
Syracuse 103 Louisville 86
Syracuse 92 Missouri 98
Syracuse 98 Temple 81
Syracuse 105 West Virginia 82
TOTAL: Syracuse 1,262 Opponents 1,171 We 'won' 8 of 13 games.

2013
Syracuse 75 Penn State 113
Syracuse 92 Northwestern 114
Syracuse 115 Wagner 52
Syracuse 107 Tulane 76
Syracuse 64 Clemson 136
Syracuse 111 N C State 85
Syracuse 46 Georgia Tech 113
Syracuse 108 Wake Forest 81
Syracuse 92 Maryland 88
Syracuse 55 Florida State 104
Syracuse 80 Pittsburgh 96
Syracuse 100 Boston College 87
Syracuse 99 Minnesota 79
TOTAL: Syracuse 1,144 Opponents 1,224 We 'won' 7 of 13 games.

2014
Syracuse 91 Villanova 103
Syracuse 99 Central Michigan 76
Syracuse 91 Maryland 91
Syracuse 71 Notre Dame 114
Syracuse 71 Louisville 100
Syracuse 80 Florida State 101
Syracuse 86 Wake Forest 77
Syracuse 75 Clemson 102
Syracuse 92 N C State 101
Syracuse 78 Duke 98
Syracuse 46 Pittsburgh 114
Syracuse 72 Boston College 78
TOTAL: Syracuse 952 Opponents 1,155 We 'won' 2 of 12 games, with one even.

2015
Syracuse 96 Rhode Island 56
Syracuse 83 Wake Forest 83
Syracuse 84 Central Michigan 91
Syracuse 84 Louisiana State 89
Syracuse 80 South Florida 93
Syracuse 86 Virginia 97
Syracuse 70 Pittsburgh 89
Syracuse 84 Florida State 100
Syracuse 74 Louisville 110
Syracuse 83 Clemson 105
Syracuse 78 North Carolina State 100
Syracuse 89 Boston College 78
TOTAL: Syracuse 991 Opponents 1091 We 'won' 2 of 12 games with one even.

2016
Syracuse 101 Colgate 74
Syracuse 99 Louisville 132
Syracuse 95 South Florida 116
Syracuse 91 Connecticut 99
Syracuse 98 Notre Dame 111
TOTAL: Syracuse 484 Opponent 532 We've 'won' 1 of 5 games.

Totals since 2011: Syracuse has won 6,184 plays, (48.3%) and 24 games, (36.9%). The opposition has won 6,6612 plays and 41 games with two games even.