SWC75
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This season I will once again be charting Syracuse’s games in terms of “winning plays”. I look at the results of each play and decide which team got the minimum they wanted out of the play. Rather than making instinctive judgments, I use a formula:
- On first down, the offensive team wants to get at least a third of the way to a new first down: they will have two more plays before they might have to surrender the ball and if they gain that same amount of yards on each of those two plays, they’ll get the first down. If they don’t make it a third of the way to a new first down, the defense won the play.
- On second down, the offense wants to get at least halfway to a new first down by the same logic.
- On third and fourth down, they want to get the first down.
- Penalties, if added onto a play by the referees, are added on to the results above. If the offense gains 5 yards on first down but there was holding and they lost yardage instead, the defense won the play. If a running back made a 20 yard run on first and ten and the holding was 15 yards downfield, turning it into a 5 yard gain, that’s still a win for the offense. If the defense is penalized and it’s tacked on, again the net result is what is evaluated. The penalties I’ve listed negated the play entirely and are a “loss” for the penalized team and thus a win for their opponent. .
- If a penalty was not tacked onto a play, it’s a lost play for the team being penalized. I'll count them separate from the other plays from scrimmage because I don't know if the intended play before the penalty would have been a run or a pass - so i wouldn't know where to put it in the chart below.
- A turnover is, obviously, a win for the team that wound up with the ball.
- On a kick-off a touchback brings the ball out to the 25 yard line. Teams still seem to be trying to kick the ball into the end zone and avoid a runback if they can, so any kick-off that results in the receiving team starting between their goal line and their 25 is a win for the kicking team. Beyond that, the receiving team wins.
- On a punt, a touchback takes the ball out of the 20. So any punt that results in the other team taking over from their goal line to their 20 is a win for the punting team. If the next change in field position is at least 40 yards, the punting tam has also won the play.
- A successful place kick is, obviously, a win for the kicking team.
- Any play that results in a touchdown is, obviously, a win for that team that scores it.
- A “victory play” where a team accepts a loss just to let the clock run out, is a win for the offensive team.
I will indicate in parenthesis how many yards there were to go to get a new first down, (if other than 10), unless it was for no gain or negative yardage. If it was a touchdown, (“TD)” a scramble/sack (“S”) a victory play (“V”) or involved a penalty (P). I’ll treat a scramble or a sack as a passing play as the Cuse.com play by play now tells you when it’s either of those two. 1R means first down running plays. 1P means first down passing plays, etc.
When Syracuse had the ball:
KO: ND 25, ND 25
Total: Syracuse 2 Notre Dame 0
P: 34 to ND 45, 37 to ND 5, 23 to ND 26p, 45 to ND 10, 35 to ND 14, 21 to ND 47, 43 to ND 49, 35 to ND 34
Total: Syracuse 4 Notre Dame 4
FG: No Good from 23, Good from 28
Total: Syracuse 1 Notre Dame 1
XP: none
Total: Syracuse 0 Notre Dame 0
Kicking plays total: Syracuse 7 Notre Dame 5
1r: 4, 3, 6, 4, 6, 6, 11, 0, 3, 4, 9, 3, 1, 9, 1, 3, 4
Total: Syracuse 10 Notre Dame 7
1p: Interception, 17, -1, I, 5, -1, 0, I, -6s, 8, 5, I
Total: Syracuse 4 Notre Dame 8
First Down Total: Syracuse 14 Notre Dame 15
2r: 10(4), 0, 5(1), 2(7), -1, 2, 5(16), 8(5), -1
Total: Syracuse 3 Notre Dame 6
2p: I, 10(7), 10(4), I, 4, I, Interception, I, I, -4s, -5s, I, I, 10, -5s, 4(7), 6(2),
Total: Syracuse 5 Notre Dame 11
Second Down Total: Syracuse 8 Notre Dame 17
3r: 1(5), 7(1), 5(3)
Total: Syracuse 2 Notre Dame 1
3p: I, I, Interception, -9s, 1497), 13960, I, I, -7s, 1(12), 13, I, I, I, 34(11)
Total: Syracuse 4 Notre Dame 11
Third Down Total: Syracuse 6 Notre Dame 12
4r: none
Total: Syracuse 0 Notre Dame 0
4p: none
Total: Syracuse 0 Notre Dame 0
Fourth Down Total: Syracuse 0 Notre Dame 0
Total on running plays: Syracuse 15 Notre Dame 14
Total on passing plays: Syracuse 13 Notre Dame 30
Total on plays from scrimmage: Syracuse 28 Notre Dame 44
Penalties not tacked on to plays: +15 Syracuse 1 Notre Dame 0
Game total when Syracuse had the ball: Syracuse 36 Notre Dame 49
When Notre Dame had the ball:
KO: SU 32, SU 25, SU 25, SU 28, SU 26, SU 21, SU 32, SU 31
Total: Syracuse 5 Notre Dame 3
P: 33 to SU 17, 22 to SU 45, SU 46 to SU 31, 31 to SU 27
Total: Syracuse 2 Notre Dame 2
FG: Good from 26, Good from 29, Good from 29
Total: Syracuse 0 Notre Dame 3
XP: Good, Good, No Good, Good
Total: Syracuse 1 Notre Dame 3
Kicking plays total: Syracuse 8 Notre Dame 11
1r: 6, -3, 0, 4(15), 5, -1, 2(15), 9TD, 0 -1v, 9, 8, 0, 2, 0, 12, 2, 35, -1v
Total: Syracuse 10 Notre Dame 9
1p: 9, 27, 6, 33, 47, -3s, 7, 9, 24, I, I, I, I, I
Total: Syracuse 6 Notre Dame 8
First Down Total: Syracuse 16 Notre Dame 17
2r: 5(4), 2(5), 2(4), 13(13), 7(13), 7, -2, 6, -2, -2, 2, 8, 7(8)l, 32TD
Total: Syracuse 5 Notre Dame 9
2p: 2(1), 6(13), I, 9TD, 7(11), 5(3), I, 9(10, I, 16(1)p, I
Total: Syracuse 5 Notre Dame 6
Second Down Total: Syracuse 10 Notre Dame 15
3r: 2(1)
Total: Syracuse 0 Notre Dame 1
3p: I, 18(15), I, I, I, 18(6), 2(3), 15(12), I, 4(12), 7(8), 10TD, -1s
Total: Syracuse 9 Notre Dame 4
Third Down Total: Syracuse 9 Notre Dame 5
4r: none
Total: Syracuse 0 Notre Dame 0
4p: Interception, 17(1)
Total: Syracuse 1 Notre Dame 1
Fourth Down Total: Syracuse 1 Notre Dame 1
Total on running plays: Syracuse 15 Notre Dame 19
Total on passing plays: Syracuse 21 Notre Dame 19
Total on plays from scrimmage: Syracuse 36 Notre Dame 38
Penalties not tacked on to plays: Syracuse 6 Notre Dame 1
Game total when Notre Dame had the ball: Syracuse 50 Notre Dame 50
Overall game total: Syracuse 86 Notre Dame 99
Comments: Our greatest advantage this year has been in special teams. That vanished in this game. We’d averaged starting a total of 155 yards closer to the goal than the other team at the start of our possessions and were behind only in the North Carolina game (-45). In this game, Notre Dame was 143 closer to their goal than we were. In actual plays, we were 7-5 on our kicks after averaging 20-2 in the first ten games. Notre Dame wasn’t great either: 8-11, (SU score first). But it came down to a battle of Sean Riley’s kick-off returns, (5-3) vs. Sterling Hofrichter’s punts (4-4) and punts produce more yardage than kick-off returns.
The perception of our team is that we are a passing team that struggles to run the ball. That was true in 2016 and 2017 but not this year. We ran the ball very well in this game and would have run it even better with a healthy Eric Dungey. We might have gotten at least a couple more scoring drives out of it and set up the pass better. With that and decent officiating, we might have stayed in this game. But we came out passing. Dungey couldn’t seem to see the defenders and DeVito stopped going deep after the interception. We wound up losing 30 of 43 pass plays on offense, with 3 interceptions and 7 sacks. We only got 115 yards on completions and lost 36 of that on sacks. Meanwhile, taking away the sacks, we ran for 155 yards at 5 yards a carry. With Dungey we might have run for 200 yards and stayed in the game. As it was, we won 15 of 29 running plays against the #3 teams in the country.
Or defense didn’t lose this game. They got picked apart early but adjustments were made and they wound up winning 50% of Notre Dame’s offensive plays. The record of getting off the field on third down, (9-5) continued to be strong. For the season, we are 111-50 on the opponent’s third downs.
Overall my impression of this game was that we were playing poorly but still had a chance to get back into the game, until late. Off of these numbers, there was a reason for that. We weren’t being steamrolled. We won 86 plays. They won 99. Here are the other games since 2011 when we were -13 in plays won: 2012 Minnesota 82-95 (we lost 10-17); 2015 South Florida 80-93 (we lost 24-45); 2016 Notre Dame 98-111, (we lost 33-50). Those were frustrating games but they weren’t 3-36. It’s not that we weren’t competing. It’s that we weren’t playing well in key areas and on certain big plays.
- On first down, the offensive team wants to get at least a third of the way to a new first down: they will have two more plays before they might have to surrender the ball and if they gain that same amount of yards on each of those two plays, they’ll get the first down. If they don’t make it a third of the way to a new first down, the defense won the play.
- On second down, the offense wants to get at least halfway to a new first down by the same logic.
- On third and fourth down, they want to get the first down.
- Penalties, if added onto a play by the referees, are added on to the results above. If the offense gains 5 yards on first down but there was holding and they lost yardage instead, the defense won the play. If a running back made a 20 yard run on first and ten and the holding was 15 yards downfield, turning it into a 5 yard gain, that’s still a win for the offense. If the defense is penalized and it’s tacked on, again the net result is what is evaluated. The penalties I’ve listed negated the play entirely and are a “loss” for the penalized team and thus a win for their opponent. .
- If a penalty was not tacked onto a play, it’s a lost play for the team being penalized. I'll count them separate from the other plays from scrimmage because I don't know if the intended play before the penalty would have been a run or a pass - so i wouldn't know where to put it in the chart below.
- A turnover is, obviously, a win for the team that wound up with the ball.
- On a kick-off a touchback brings the ball out to the 25 yard line. Teams still seem to be trying to kick the ball into the end zone and avoid a runback if they can, so any kick-off that results in the receiving team starting between their goal line and their 25 is a win for the kicking team. Beyond that, the receiving team wins.
- On a punt, a touchback takes the ball out of the 20. So any punt that results in the other team taking over from their goal line to their 20 is a win for the punting team. If the next change in field position is at least 40 yards, the punting tam has also won the play.
- A successful place kick is, obviously, a win for the kicking team.
- Any play that results in a touchdown is, obviously, a win for that team that scores it.
- A “victory play” where a team accepts a loss just to let the clock run out, is a win for the offensive team.
I will indicate in parenthesis how many yards there were to go to get a new first down, (if other than 10), unless it was for no gain or negative yardage. If it was a touchdown, (“TD)” a scramble/sack (“S”) a victory play (“V”) or involved a penalty (P). I’ll treat a scramble or a sack as a passing play as the Cuse.com play by play now tells you when it’s either of those two. 1R means first down running plays. 1P means first down passing plays, etc.
When Syracuse had the ball:
KO: ND 25, ND 25
Total: Syracuse 2 Notre Dame 0
P: 34 to ND 45, 37 to ND 5, 23 to ND 26p, 45 to ND 10, 35 to ND 14, 21 to ND 47, 43 to ND 49, 35 to ND 34
Total: Syracuse 4 Notre Dame 4
FG: No Good from 23, Good from 28
Total: Syracuse 1 Notre Dame 1
XP: none
Total: Syracuse 0 Notre Dame 0
Kicking plays total: Syracuse 7 Notre Dame 5
1r: 4, 3, 6, 4, 6, 6, 11, 0, 3, 4, 9, 3, 1, 9, 1, 3, 4
Total: Syracuse 10 Notre Dame 7
1p: Interception, 17, -1, I, 5, -1, 0, I, -6s, 8, 5, I
Total: Syracuse 4 Notre Dame 8
First Down Total: Syracuse 14 Notre Dame 15
2r: 10(4), 0, 5(1), 2(7), -1, 2, 5(16), 8(5), -1
Total: Syracuse 3 Notre Dame 6
2p: I, 10(7), 10(4), I, 4, I, Interception, I, I, -4s, -5s, I, I, 10, -5s, 4(7), 6(2),
Total: Syracuse 5 Notre Dame 11
Second Down Total: Syracuse 8 Notre Dame 17
3r: 1(5), 7(1), 5(3)
Total: Syracuse 2 Notre Dame 1
3p: I, I, Interception, -9s, 1497), 13960, I, I, -7s, 1(12), 13, I, I, I, 34(11)
Total: Syracuse 4 Notre Dame 11
Third Down Total: Syracuse 6 Notre Dame 12
4r: none
Total: Syracuse 0 Notre Dame 0
4p: none
Total: Syracuse 0 Notre Dame 0
Fourth Down Total: Syracuse 0 Notre Dame 0
Total on running plays: Syracuse 15 Notre Dame 14
Total on passing plays: Syracuse 13 Notre Dame 30
Total on plays from scrimmage: Syracuse 28 Notre Dame 44
Penalties not tacked on to plays: +15 Syracuse 1 Notre Dame 0
Game total when Syracuse had the ball: Syracuse 36 Notre Dame 49
When Notre Dame had the ball:
KO: SU 32, SU 25, SU 25, SU 28, SU 26, SU 21, SU 32, SU 31
Total: Syracuse 5 Notre Dame 3
P: 33 to SU 17, 22 to SU 45, SU 46 to SU 31, 31 to SU 27
Total: Syracuse 2 Notre Dame 2
FG: Good from 26, Good from 29, Good from 29
Total: Syracuse 0 Notre Dame 3
XP: Good, Good, No Good, Good
Total: Syracuse 1 Notre Dame 3
Kicking plays total: Syracuse 8 Notre Dame 11
1r: 6, -3, 0, 4(15), 5, -1, 2(15), 9TD, 0 -1v, 9, 8, 0, 2, 0, 12, 2, 35, -1v
Total: Syracuse 10 Notre Dame 9
1p: 9, 27, 6, 33, 47, -3s, 7, 9, 24, I, I, I, I, I
Total: Syracuse 6 Notre Dame 8
First Down Total: Syracuse 16 Notre Dame 17
2r: 5(4), 2(5), 2(4), 13(13), 7(13), 7, -2, 6, -2, -2, 2, 8, 7(8)l, 32TD
Total: Syracuse 5 Notre Dame 9
2p: 2(1), 6(13), I, 9TD, 7(11), 5(3), I, 9(10, I, 16(1)p, I
Total: Syracuse 5 Notre Dame 6
Second Down Total: Syracuse 10 Notre Dame 15
3r: 2(1)
Total: Syracuse 0 Notre Dame 1
3p: I, 18(15), I, I, I, 18(6), 2(3), 15(12), I, 4(12), 7(8), 10TD, -1s
Total: Syracuse 9 Notre Dame 4
Third Down Total: Syracuse 9 Notre Dame 5
4r: none
Total: Syracuse 0 Notre Dame 0
4p: Interception, 17(1)
Total: Syracuse 1 Notre Dame 1
Fourth Down Total: Syracuse 1 Notre Dame 1
Total on running plays: Syracuse 15 Notre Dame 19
Total on passing plays: Syracuse 21 Notre Dame 19
Total on plays from scrimmage: Syracuse 36 Notre Dame 38
Penalties not tacked on to plays: Syracuse 6 Notre Dame 1
Game total when Notre Dame had the ball: Syracuse 50 Notre Dame 50
Overall game total: Syracuse 86 Notre Dame 99
Comments: Our greatest advantage this year has been in special teams. That vanished in this game. We’d averaged starting a total of 155 yards closer to the goal than the other team at the start of our possessions and were behind only in the North Carolina game (-45). In this game, Notre Dame was 143 closer to their goal than we were. In actual plays, we were 7-5 on our kicks after averaging 20-2 in the first ten games. Notre Dame wasn’t great either: 8-11, (SU score first). But it came down to a battle of Sean Riley’s kick-off returns, (5-3) vs. Sterling Hofrichter’s punts (4-4) and punts produce more yardage than kick-off returns.
The perception of our team is that we are a passing team that struggles to run the ball. That was true in 2016 and 2017 but not this year. We ran the ball very well in this game and would have run it even better with a healthy Eric Dungey. We might have gotten at least a couple more scoring drives out of it and set up the pass better. With that and decent officiating, we might have stayed in this game. But we came out passing. Dungey couldn’t seem to see the defenders and DeVito stopped going deep after the interception. We wound up losing 30 of 43 pass plays on offense, with 3 interceptions and 7 sacks. We only got 115 yards on completions and lost 36 of that on sacks. Meanwhile, taking away the sacks, we ran for 155 yards at 5 yards a carry. With Dungey we might have run for 200 yards and stayed in the game. As it was, we won 15 of 29 running plays against the #3 teams in the country.
Or defense didn’t lose this game. They got picked apart early but adjustments were made and they wound up winning 50% of Notre Dame’s offensive plays. The record of getting off the field on third down, (9-5) continued to be strong. For the season, we are 111-50 on the opponent’s third downs.
Overall my impression of this game was that we were playing poorly but still had a chance to get back into the game, until late. Off of these numbers, there was a reason for that. We weren’t being steamrolled. We won 86 plays. They won 99. Here are the other games since 2011 when we were -13 in plays won: 2012 Minnesota 82-95 (we lost 10-17); 2015 South Florida 80-93 (we lost 24-45); 2016 Notre Dame 98-111, (we lost 33-50). Those were frustrating games but they weren’t 3-36. It’s not that we weren’t competing. It’s that we weren’t playing well in key areas and on certain big plays.