Winning Plays: Ohio U. | Syracusefan.com

Winning Plays: Ohio U.

SWC75

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This season I will once again be charting Syracuse’s games in terms of “winning plays”. I look at the results of each play and decide which team got the minimum they wanted out of the play. Rather than making instinctive judgments, I use a formula:

- On first down, the offensive team wants to get at least a third of the way to a new first down: they will have two more plays before they might have to surrender the ball and if they gain that same amount of yards on each of those two plays, they’ll get the first down. If they don’t make it a third of the way to a new first down, the defense won the play.
- On second down, the offense wants to get at least halfway to a new first down by the same logic.
- On third and fourth down, they want to get the first down.
- Penalties, if added onto a play by the referees, are added on to the results above. If the offense gains 5 yards on first down but there was holding and they lost yardage instead, the defense won the play. If a running back made a 20 yard run on first and ten and the holding was 15 yards downfield, turning it into a 5 yard gain, that’s still a win for the offense. If the defense is penalized and it’s tacked on, again the net result is what is evaluated. The penalties I’ve listed negated the play entirely and are a “loss” for the penalized team and thus a win for their opponent. .
- If a penalty was not tacked onto a play, it’s a lost play for the team being penalized. I'll count them separate from the other plays from scrimmage because I don't know if the intended play before the penalty would have been a run or a pass - so i wouldn't know where to put it in the chart below.
- A turnover is, obviously, a win for the team that wound up with the ball.
- On a kick-off a touchback brings the ball out to the 25 yard line. Teams still seem to be trying to kick the ball into the end zone and avoid a runback if they can, so any kick-off that results in the receiving team starting between their goal line and their 25 is a win for the kicking team. Beyond that, the receiving team wins.
- On a punt, a touchback takes the ball out of the 20. So any punt that results in the other team taking over from their goal line to their 20 is a win for the punting team. If the next change in field position is at least 40 yards, the punting tam has also won the play.
- A successful place kick is, obviously, a win for the kicking team.
- Any play that results in a touchdown is, obviously, a win for that team that scores it.
- A “victory play” where a team accepts a loss just to let the clock run out, is a win for the offensive team.

I will indicate in parenthesis how many yards there were to go to get a new first down, (if other than 10), unless it was for no gain or negative yardage. If it was a touchdown, (“TD)” a scramble/sack (“S”) a victory play (“V”) or involved a penalty (P). I’ll treat a scramble or a sack as a passing play as the Cuse.com play by play now tells you when it’s either of those two. 1R means first down running plays. 1P means first down passing plays, etc.


The Ohio U. Game

When Syracuse had the ball:
Drive Starts: S33, S43, S28, S22, S33, O26, S27, S26, S23 Average: S29

KO: O25, O1, O30, O13, O28, O29
Total: Syracuse 3 Ohio 3
P: 40 to O4, 35 to O9
Total: Syracuse 2 Ohio 0
FG: Good from 29, Good from 20
Total: Syracuse 2 Ohio 0
XP: Good, Good, Good
Total: Syracuse 3 Ohio 0
Kicking plays total: Syracuse 10 Ohio 3

1r: 2, 6TD, 5, 8, 4, 3, 7, 2, -2v, 3, 9, 7, 4, 4(6), 28, 15, 3, 4, 2, 5, 17, 2, 0, 15
Total: Syracuse 16 Ohio 8
1p: 8, I, 7, 17, 21, 8
Total: Syracuse 5 Ohio 1
First Down Total: Syracuse 21 Ohio 9
2r: 47(8), 4(2), 2, 2(3), 5(6), -15p, 3(3), 5(6), 0, 6TD, 5(8), 1(5), 11TD, 8
Total: Syracuse 10 Ohio 4
2p: 3(5), 3(2), 10(7), 7(3), I, I, 1(16)
Total: Syracuse 4 Ohio 3
Second Down Total: Syracuse 14 Ohio 7
3r: 2(1), 4(10, 1(1), 17(3), 14(4), 4(2)
Total: Syracuse 6 Ohio 0
3p: 7(2), I, -3s, 8(7), I, I
Total: Syracuse 2 Ohio 4
Third Down Total: Syracuse 8 Ohio 4
4r: none
Total: Syracuse 0 Ohio 0
4p: none
Total: Syracuse 0 Ohio 0
Fourth Down Total: Syracuse 0 Ohio 0

Total on running plays: Syracuse 32 Ohio 12
Total on passing plays: Syracuse 11 Ohio 8
Total on plays from scrimmage: Syracuse 43 Ohio 20

Penalties not tacked on to plays: Syracuse 0 Ohio 0

Game total when Syracuse had the ball: Syracuse 53 Ohio 23


When Ohio U. had the ball:

Drive Starts: O25, O1, O4, O30, O9, O13, O28, O29 Average: O17

KO: S43, S28, S22, S33, S26
Total: Syracuse 4 Ohio 1
P: 11 to O26
Total: Syracuse 1 Ohio 0
FG: No Good from 50, Good from 22, Good from 30, Good from 25
Total: Syracuse 1 Ohio 3
XP: none
Total: Syracuse 0 Ohio 0
Kicking plays total: Syracuse 6 Ohio 4

1r: 8, 9, 1, 1, SAFETY, 5, 6, 3, -5, 3, 4, 4, 8, 0, 8, 13
Total: Syracuse 7 Ohio 9
1p: 38, 5, 0, 0, 2, 39, I 6, 6, INTERCEPTION
Total: Syracuse 5 Ohio 5
First Down Total: Syracuse 12 Ohio 14
2r: 3, 0, 2(11), 22(5)p, 4(7), 11, 4(8), 9(2), 4(6), 5(2), 1(9), 8(4)
Total: Syracuse 3 Ohio 9
2p: 0, 2(4), I, -1, 5(5), 20(6), 3, 32(6), I, 2(4)
Total: Syracuse 5 Ohio 5
Second Down Total: Syracuse 8 Ohio 14
3r: 2(1), 6(9), 5, 2(3), 3(2)
Total: Syracuse 6 Ohio 6
3p: 12(9), 16(6), I, I, 7, I 10(2)
Total: Syracuse 4 Ohio 3
Third Down Total: Syracuse 6 Ohio 6
4r: 1(1)
Total: Syracuse 0 Ohio 1
4p: 0(1)
Total: Syracuse 1 Ohio 0
Fourth Down Total: Syracuse 1 Ohio 1

Total on running plays: Syracuse 12 Ohio 22
Total on passing plays: Syracuse 15 Ohio 13
Total on plays from scrimmage: Syracuse 27 Ohio 35

Penalties not tacked on to plays: +4 Syracuse 0 Ohio 1

Game total when Ohio U. had the ball: Syracuse 33 Ohio 40

Overall Game Total: Syracuse 86 Ohio 63

Comments: We’ve got a great chance to win any game where we average 6.4 yards a carry on first down runs. Actually, we’ve got a good chance to win any game where we have 24 first down carries and 30 first down plays. It’s also helpful to average 7 yards a carry on third down runs, especially when you only had to gain 12 yards to get those first downs.

The Bobcats were amazing. They went the whole 60 minutes without committing any infractions, (that got called). Also amazing was that we held a team that punted only once to 9 points. It was a game of long, time-consuming drives. There were a total of only 17 possessions. They had 8 of them, kicked three field goals, missed another, got trapped for a safety, failed on fourth down and threw an interception in addition to that one punt.

When I looked at Ohio’s secondary and saw everybody was under 6 feet tall and that we could put two wide-outs who were 6-6 and 6-5, a 6-2 slot and a 6-4 tight end out there, I thought our guys would play catch. That’s why I predicted a blow-out. Well, there were completions of 38, 39 and 32 yards – by Ohio. We had one of over 20 yards, and that was for 21 yards. I still don’t understand why we did go right to that obvious advantage immediately and take control of the game early. Maybe we wanted to “keep things under wraps” for Rutgers. But the Scarlet Knights certainly didn’t keep anything under wraps against Temple.

We won 86 plays in this game to 63. That’s +23. Similar games from the Babers Era:
2016 SU 101 Colgate 74 = +27 We won 33-7
2018 SU 109 Connecticut 83 = +26 We won 51-21
2018 SU 113 North Carolina State 96 = +17 We won 51-41
2019 SU 104 Liberty 84 = +20 We won 24-0
2019 SU 107 Duke 78 = +29 We won 49-6

Dino Babers has now won his opening game 5 times in 6 years. The one loss was last year at North Carolina.
In 2016 we beat Colgate 33-7. Our next opponent was Louisville with Lamar Jackson, who had opened by beating Charlotte 70-14. But they wouldn’t do that to us. No, they beat us 28-62.
In 2017 we beat Central Connecticut State 50-7, then lost to Middle Tennessee State 23-30.
In 2018 we beat Western Michigan 55-42, then beat Wagner 62-10.
In 2019 we beat Liberty 24-0. Our next opponent was Maryland, who’d opened by beating Howard 79-0. But they wouldn’t do that to us! No, they beat us 20-63.
Now we’ve beaten Ohio U. 29-9. Rutgers just beat Temple 61-14. But they won’t do that to us….


HISTORICAL WINNING PLAYS (Babers Era – game totals only)

2016
Syracuse 101 Colgate 74 = +27
Syracuse 99 Louisville 132 = -33
Syracuse 95 South Florida 116 = -21
Syracuse 91 Connecticut 99 = -8
Syracuse 98 Notre Dame 111 = -13
Syracuse 72 Wake Forest 101 = -29
Syracuse 103 Virginia Tech 104 = -1
Syracuse 93 Boston College 84 = +9
Syracuse 74 Clemson 120 = -46
Syracuse 71 North Carolina State 103 = -32
Syracuse 71 Florida State 120 = -49
Syracuse 107 Pittsburgh 118 = -11
TOTAL: Syracuse 1075 Opponent 1282 = -207 We 'won' 2 of 12 games.

2017
Syracuse 132 Central Connecticut 65 = +67
Syracuse 104 Middle Tennessee 98 = +6
Syracuse 107 Central Michigan 100 = +7
Syracuse 80 Louisiana State 103 = -23
Syracuse 93 North Carolina State 112 = -19
Syracuse 97 Pittsburgh 96 = +1
Syracuse 95 Clemson 97= -2
Syracuse 86 Miami 119 = -33
Syracuse 90 Florida State 108 = -18
Syracuse 120 Wake Forest 125 = -5
Syracuse 96 Louisville 100 = -4
Syracuse 77 Boston College 87 = -10
TOTAL: Syracuse 1177 Opponents 1210 = -33 We ‘won’ 4 of12 games

2018
Syracuse 109 Western Michigan 96 = +13
Syracuse 139 Wagner 65 = +74
Syracuse 113 Florida State 77 = +36
Syracuse 109 Connecticut 83 = +26
Syracuse 86 Clemson 102= -16
Syracuse 99 Pittsburgh 97 = +2
Syracuse 113 North Carolina 115 = -2
Syracuse 113 North Carolina State 96 = +17
Syracuse 117 Wake Forest 107 = +10
Syracuse 124 Louisville 83 = +41
Syracuse 86 Notre Dame 99 = -13
Syracuse 110 Boston College 96 = +14
Syracuse 116 West Virginia 79 +37
TOTAL: Syracuse 1434 Opponents 1195 = +239 We ‘won’ 10 of 13 games

2019
Syracuse 104 Liberty 84 = +20
Syracuse 82 Maryland 112 = -30
Syracuse 77 Clemson 113 = -36
Syracuse 113 Western Michigan 99 =+14
Syracuse 110 Holy Cross 67 = +43
Syracuse 78 North Carolina State 100 = -22
Syracuse 92 Pittsburgh 114 = -22
Syracuse 96 Florida State 115 = -19
Syracuse 76 Boston College 119 = -43
Syracuse 107 Duke 78 = +29
Syracuse 85 Louisville 104 = -19
Syracuse 118 Wake Forest 111 = +7
TOTAL: Syracuse 1138 Opponents 1216 = -78 We ‘won’ 5 of 12 games

2020
Syracuse 70 North Carolina 114 = -44
Syracuse 78 Pittsburgh 89 = -11
Syracuse 108 Georgia Tech 102 = +6
Syracuse 79 Duke 114 = -35
Syracuse 77 Liberty 93 = -16
Syracuse 72 Clemson 112 = -40
Syracuse 76 Wake Forest 99 = -23
Syracuse 68 Boston College 96 = -28
Syracuse 76 Louisville 81 = -5
Syracuse 76 North Carolina State 108
Syracuse 82 Notre Dame 100
TOTAL: Syracuse 862 Opponents 1108 = -248 We ‘won’ 1 of 11 games

2021
Syracuse 86 Ohio U. 63 = +23

Totals since 2016: Syracuse has won 5,772 plays, (48.7%) and 23 games, (37.7%). The opposition has won 6,074 plays and 38 games. They’ve obtained their goals on 302 more plays than we have in 61 games, an average of 5.0 plays a game.
 
There's a small error in your logic between expected goals for 1st and 2nd down plays.

On first down plays, you say the expectation is to gain 1/3 of the total yards necessary for the first down - implying the first down would be achieved with 3 such plays.

On your second down expectation level, however, you say "half the yardage" - 5 yards gained.

First, this is inconsistent, since it implies that the offense would run all 4 plays to achieve the first down, as opposed to three in the first instance.

But then, your second down expectation of only 5 yards gained is too little (2.5 yards per play), when it should be that the offense has moved roughly 7 yards (2/3 of the necessary yardage).

Sorry to make you do all that math over! Love your analysis, though!
 
There's a small error in your logic between expected goals for 1st and 2nd down plays.

On first down plays, you say the expectation is to gain 1/3 of the total yards necessary for the first down - implying the first down would be achieved with 3 such plays.

On your second down expectation level, however, you say "half the yardage" - 5 yards gained.

First, this is inconsistent, since it implies that the offense would run all 4 plays to achieve the first down, as opposed to three in the first instance.

But then, your second down expectation of only 5 yards gained is too little (2.5 yards per play), when it should be that the offense has moved roughly 7 yards (2/3 of the necessary yardage).

Sorry to make you do all that math over! Love your analysis, though!

You have to gain 4 years on first down to get at least a third of the way to 10 yards. If you gain 4 yards three times, that's 12 yards anand a first down.

If you have ten yard to go on second down, you need to gain 5 yards to get half of that. Do that again and you have 10 yards. If there are 6 yards to go, you need to gain 3 yards to get half of that. Do that twice and you've got your first down.
 
Does anyone know the link to watch a replay of the game. I have paramount+ but can’t find it on demand anywhere.
 
Does anyone know the link to watch a replay of the game. I have paramount+ but can’t find it on demand anywhere.
On a side note...something that is super annoying is that the ACC channel is replaying every game last weekend but our game. Probably a contract thing because of CBS Sports but it still irks me.
 
On a side note...something that is super annoying is that the ACC channel is replaying every game last weekend but our game. Probably a contract thing because of CBS Sports but it still irks me.
Yep it's because it was on CBS Sports and not anything affiliated with ESPN.
 

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