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Message: [QUOTE="IthacaMatt, post: 3949550, member: 405"] There's a small error in your logic between expected goals for 1st and 2nd down plays. On first down plays, you say the expectation is to gain 1/3 of the total yards necessary for the first down - implying the first down would be achieved with 3 such plays. On your second down expectation level, however, you say "half the yardage" - 5 yards gained. First, this is inconsistent, since it implies that the offense would run all 4 plays to achieve the first down, as opposed to three in the first instance. But then, your second down expectation of only 5 yards gained is too little (2.5 yards per play), when it should be that the offense has moved roughly 7 yards (2/3 of the necessary yardage). Sorry to make you do all that math over! Love your analysis, though! [/QUOTE]