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[QUOTE="SWC75, post: 2338067, member: 289"]
This season I will once again be charting Syracuse’s games in terms of “winning plays”. I look at the results of each play and decide which team got the minimum they wanted out of the play. Rather than making instinctive judgments, I use a formula:
 
-              On first down, the offensive team wants to get at least a third of the way to a new first down: they will have two more plays before they might have to surrender the ball and if they gain that same amount of yards on each of those two plays, they’ll get the first down. If they don’t make it a third of the way to a new first down, the defense won the play.

-              On second down, the offense wants to get at least halfway to a new first down by the same logic.

-              On third and fourth down, they want to get the first down.

-              Penalties, if added onto a play by the referees, are added on to the results above. If the offense gains 5 yards on first down but there was holding and they lost yardage instead, the defense won the play. If a running back made a 20 yard run on first and ten and the holding was 15 yards downfield, turning it into a 5 yard gain, that’s still a win for the offense. If the defense is penalized and it’s tacked on, again the net result is what is evaluated. The penalties I’ve listed negated the play entirely and are a “loss” for the penalized team and thus a win for their opponent. .

-              If a penalty was not tacked onto a play, it’s a lost play for the team being penalized. I'll count them separate from the other plays from scrimmage because I don't know if the intended play before the penalty would have been a run or a pass - so i wouldn't know where to put it in the chart below.

-              A turnover is, obviously, a win for the team that wound up with the ball.

-              On a kick-off a touchback brings the ball out to the 25 yard line. Teams still seem to be trying to kick the ball into the end zone and avoid a runback if they can, so any kick-off that results in the receiving team starting between their goal line and their 25 is a win for the kicking team. Beyond that, the receiving team wins.

-              On a punt, a touchback takes the ball out of the 20. So any punt that results in the other team taking over from their goal line to their 20 is a win for the punting team. If the next change in field position is at least 40 yards, the punting tam has also won the play.

-              A successful place kick is, obviously, a win for the kicking team.

-              Any play that results in a touchdown is, obviously, a win for that team that scores it.

-              A “victory play” where a team accepts a loss just to let the clock run out, is a win for the offensive team.

I will indicate in parenthesis how many yards there were to go to get a new first down, (if other than 10), unless it was for no gain or negative yardage. If it was a touchdown, (“TD)” a sack (“S”) a victory play (“V”) or involved a penalty (P). I’ll treat a scramble as a running play, (since it’s not always clear what the intent was), but a sack as a passing play.  1R means first down running plays. 1P means first down passing plays, etc.

When  Syracuse had the ball:

KO:         Pitt 25, Pitt 25, Pitt 25, Pitt 25, Pitt 30, Pitt 25
Total:     Syracuse 5 Pittsburgh 1
P:            41 to Pitt 26, 47 to Pitt 25, 32 to Pitt 46, 35 to Pitt 20, 46 to Pitt 11
Total:     Syracuse 4 Pittsburgh 1
FG:         Good from 26, Good from 38
Total:     Syracuse 2 Pittsburgh 0
XP:         Good, Good, Good
Total:     Syracuse 3 Pittsburgh 0
Kicking plays total:           Syracuse 14 Pittsburgh 2

1r:           5, 2, 3, 7, 0, 9, 4, 5, 1, 0, 1, 8, 3, 7, 4, 2, 1, 11, 3, 4, 3
Total:     Syracuse 10 Pittsburgh 11
1p:          I, I, I, I, 26, 6, I, I, 12, I, 8, -6(S), 7, 19, -8, 2
Total:     Syracuse 6 Pittsburgh 10
First Down Total:              Syracuse 16 Pittsburgh 21
2r:           5, 4(9), 1(3), 10TD, -1, 5(7), 4(8), 1(6), 0
Total:     Syracuse 4 Pittsburgh 5
2p:          34(5), 9, 9(3), 6, -7(S), I, I, 4, 13, I, I, 17(6), 32TD, 3(5), 6(16), 13(9), I, 11(18), 6(3), 7(8), 35TD
Total:     Syracuse 13 Pittsburgh 7
Second Down Total:        Syracuse 17 Pittsburgh 12
3r:           1, 6(1), 3(2), 5, 0, 5(2), 3(4), 20(5)
Total:     Syracuse 4 Pittsburgh 4
3p:          I, I, 11914), I, 10(18), -7(S), 2, 13(5), 13(2), 12(7), 11912)
Total:     Syracuse 3 Pittsburgh 8
Third Down Total:            Syracuse 7 Pittsburgh 12
4r:           3(1), 2(1), 3(1)
Total:     Syracuse 3 Pittsburgh 0
4p:          8(9), I
Total:     Syracuse 0 Pittsburgh 2
Fourth Down Total:         Syracuse 3 Pittsburgh 2

Total on running plays: Syracuse 21 Pittsburgh 20
Total on passing plays:   Syracuse 22 Pittsburgh 27
Total on plays from scrimmage:                 Syracuse 43 Pittsburgh 47

Penalties not tacked on to plays: +5, -13, -5, -5, +15, -10, +15, -5, -5          Syracuse 4 Pittsburgh6

Game total when Syracuse had the ball:                               Syracuse 61 Pittsburgh 55

Comments: First down passing is usually the most efficient of stats, (because the defense has to worry about both the pass and the run) but we had four straight first down completions in the first quarter and we were 6-10, (in plays) for the game. Those 16 plays netted 66 yards, or 4.1 yards per attempt.  But on second down, (when passes are more likely and better defended), we won 13 of 20 plays and netted 198 yards or 9.9 per play. Our running attack about broke even, (not quite) on 1st, 2nd and 3rd downs. But we were 3-0 on 4th down runs, all from one yard out. Then when the game was on the line, we went with that shovel pass that was incomplete.

When  Pittsburgh had the ball:

KO:         SU 19, SU 25, SU 25, SU 25
Total:     Syracuse 0 Pittsburgh 4
P:            43 to SU 26, 38 to SU 28, 46 to SU 20, 35 to SU 42, 39 to SU 7, 45 to SU 28
Total:     Syracuse 2 Pittsburgh 4
FG:         Good from 49, Good from 56
Total:     Syracuse 0 Pittsburgh 2
XP:         Good, Try for 2 - Good
Total:     Syracuse 0 Pittsburgh 2
Kicking plays total:           Syracuse 2  Pittsburgh 13

1r:           3(20), 7, 2, 1, 6, 9, 2, 2, -2, 12, 7, 3, 19TD
Total:     Syracuse 7 Pittsburgh 6
1p:          8, 6, 5, I, 11, 16, 9, 23, 12, 11(5), I, I, I, -8(S)
Total:     Syracuse 5 Pittsburgh 9
First Down Total:              Syracuse 12  Pittsburgh 15
2r:           2(3), 1(4), -3, 3(8), -8(5), 11(3), 9, 3
Total:     Syracuse 5 Pittsburgh 3
2p:          12(17), I, 3, 21(8), 21(9), I, 9(8), 3, I, 12(8)
Total:     Syracuse 5 Pittsburgh 5
Second Down Total:        Syracuse 10 Pittsburgh 8
3r:           0, 0, 11(19), 4(1)
Total:     Syracuse 3 Pittsburgh 1
3p:          1(5), I, 2(3), I, I, I, 1(7), 22(7), 15(7)
Total:     Syracuse 7 Pittsburgh 2
Third Down Total:            Syracuse 10 Pittsburgh 3
4r:           none
Total:     Syracuse 0 Pittsburgh 0
4p:          none
Total:     Syracuse 0 Pittsburgh 0
Fourth Down Total:         Syracuse 0 Pittsburgh 0

Total on running plays: Syracuse 15 Pittsburgh 10
Total on passing plays:   Syracuse 17 Pittsburgh 10
Total on plays from scrimmage:                 Syracuse 32 Pittsburgh 20

Penalties not tacked on to plays: -10, +5, -5, +5 Syracuse 2 Pittsburgh 2

Game total when Pittsburgh had the ball:             Syracuse 36 Pittsburgh 35

Overall Game Total:        Syracuse 97 Pittsburgh 90

Comments: Our run defense was excellent, winning every down. We did poorly against first down passes, losing 9 of 14 plays and giving up a total 95 yards, (6.8 per play), but crushed them on 3rd down passes, 7-2, giving up 41 yards, ((4.6 per play). 37 of that, however came in the fourth quarter on Pitt’s last scoring drive.

This was a +7 game. (We ‘won’ 97 plays, lost 90.) We haven’t had too many wins since I’ve been charting the games, (2011). Here are the closest games to this one but a lot of them were in this range:
2011 Syracuse 96 Toledo 88 = +8                                Syracuse won 33-30 in OT
2011 Syracuse 103 Rutgers 99 = +4                            Syracuse lost 16-19 in 2OT           
2011 Syracuse 90 West Virginia 84 = +6                   Syracuse won 49-23
2013 Syracuse 92 Maryland 88 = +4                          Syracuse won 20-3
2014 Syracuse 86 Wake Forest 77 = +9                    Syracuse won 30-7
2016 Syracuse 93 Boston College 84 = +9               Syracuse won 28-20
2017 Syracuse 97 Pittsburgh 90 = +7                         Syracuse won 27-24

If we can win the most plays, we will usually win the game. We’ve rarely been explosive enough to win a game where we didn’t win the most plays.
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