Winning Plays: Rutgers

[SWC75]

This season I will once again be charting Syracuse’s games in terms of “winning plays”. I look at the results of each play and decide which team got the minimum they wanted out of the play. Rather than making instinctive judgments, I use a formula:

- On first down, the offensive team wants to get at least a third of the way to a new first down: they will have two more plays before they might have to surrender the ball and if they gain that same amount of yards on each of those two plays, they’ll get the first down. If they don’t make it a third of the way to a new first down, the defense won the play.
- On second down, the offense wants to get at least halfway to a new first down by the same logic.
- On third and fourth down, they want to get the first down.
- Penalties, if added onto a play by the referees, are added on to the results above. If the offense gains 5 yards on first down but there was holding and they lost yardage instead, the defense won the play. If a running back made a 20 yard run on first and ten and the holding was 15 yards downfield, turning it into a 5 yard gain, that’s still a win for the offense. If the defense is penalized and it’s tacked on, again the net result is what is evaluated. The penalties I’ve listed negated the play entirely and are a “loss” for the penalized team and thus a win for their opponent. .
- If a penalty was not tacked onto a play, it’s a lost play for the team being penalized. I'll count them separate from the other plays from scrimmage because I don't know if the intended play before the penalty would have been a run or a pass - so i wouldn't know where to put it in the chart below.
- A turnover is, obviously, a win for the team that wound up with the ball.
- On a kick-off a touchback brings the ball out to the 25 yard line. Teams still seem to be trying to kick the ball into the end zone and avoid a runback if they can, so any kick-off that results in the receiving team starting between their goal line and their 25 is a win for the kicking team. Beyond that, the receiving team wins.
- On a punt, a touchback takes the ball out of the 20. So any punt that results in the other team taking over from their goal line to their 20 is a win for the punting team. If the next change in field position is at least 40 yards, the punting tam has also won the play.
- A successful place kick is, obviously, a win for the kicking team.
- Any play that results in a touchdown is, obviously, a win for that team that scores it.
- A “victory play” where a team accepts a loss just to let the clock run out, is a win for the offensive team.

I will indicate in parenthesis how many yards there were to go to get a new first down, (if other than 10), unless it was for no gain or negative yardage. If it was a touchdown, (“TD)” a scramble/sack (“S”) a victory play (“V”) or involved a penalty (P). I’ll treat a scramble or a sack as a passing play as the Cuse.com play by play now tells you when it’s either of those two. 1R means first down running plays. 1P means first down passing plays, etc.

When Syracuse had the ball:

Drive Starts: SU 25, SU 43, SU 25, SU 12, SU 15, SU 41, SU 1, SU 25, SU 19, SU 25, SU 20, SU 24, SU 17 Average: SU 22

KO: RU 25, RU 20
Total: Syracuse 2 Rutgers 0
P: Blocked, 27 to RU 11, 60 to RU 36, 26 to RU 46, 44 to RU 48, 22 SU 41(p), 3 to SU 26(p), 30 to RU 11
Total: Syracuse 4 Rutgers 4
FG: No Good from 43
Total: Syracuse 0 Rutgers 1
XP: Good
Total: Syracuse 1 Rutgers 0
Kicking plays total: Syracuse 7 Rutgers 5

1r: 3, 3, 9, 6, 5, -6(p), 2(16), 2, 1, 0, 0, 24TD, 35(p), 0
Total: Syracuse 5 Rutgers 9
1p: 6, I, 7, I, 10, I, I, 10, I, 5, 3, Fumble, -5(s) I
Total: Syracuse 4 Rutgers 8
First Down Total: Syracuse 9 Rutgers 17
2r: 5(4), 6(1), 2(4), 2, 0, 1(14), 3(8), 1(9)
Total: Syracuse 3 Rutgers 5
2p: 10(7), 13(3), 11, 18, I, 51, -3(s), -5(s), I, 5(15), 6
Total: Syracuse 6 Rutgers 5
Second Down Total: Syracuse 9 Rutgers 10
3r: -5, 3(1)
Total: Syracuse 1 Rutgers 1
3p: I, 9(6), Fumble, 12, 5(15), -4(s), 3, 7, I, I, I, 3, Interception
Total: Syracuse 2 Rutgers 11
Third Down Total: Syracuse 3 Rutgers 12
4r: 17(7)
Total: Syracuse 1 Rutgers 0
4p: none
Total: Syracuse 0 Rutgers 0
Fourth Down Total: Syracuse 1 Rutgers 0

Total on running plays: Syracuse 10 Rutgers 15
Total on passing plays: Syracuse 12 Rutgers 24
Total on plays from scrimmage: Syracuse 22 Rutgers 39

Penalties not tacked on to plays: -7, -5, -4 Syracuse 0 Rutgers 3

Game total when Syracuse had the ball: Syracuse 29 Rutgers 47


When Rutgers had the ball:

Drive Starts: SU 18, RU 5, RU 11, RU 36, SU 46, RU 25, RU 25, RU 37, RU 20, SU 41, SU 26, SU 10, RU 11, RU 44 Average: RU 41

KO: SU 25, SU 25, SU 24
Total: Syracuse 0 Rutgers 3
P: 43 to SU 25, 41 to SU 12, 60 to SU 15, 69 to SU 1, 55 to SU 19, 43 to SU 17
Total: Syracuse 0 Rutgers 6
FG: No Good from 29, Good from 27
Total: Syracuse 1 Rutgers 1
XP: Good, Good
Total: Syracuse 0 Rutgers 2
Kicking plays total: Syracuse 1 Rutgers 12

1r: 9, 4, 1, 4, 10, -4(v), 0, 4, 11TD, 4, 6, 0, 0, 4, 9, -1, -3(v)
Total: Syracuse 5 Rutgers 12
1p: I, 5, 4, -10(s), 9, 3, 4, 7, 5, -3(s), I
Total: Syracuse 5 Rutgers 6
First Down Total: Syracuse 10 Rutgers 18
2r: 1(1), 1(6), 5(9), 2(7), 7(8), 6(3), 2(6), 3(4), -2, -1, 5(6), -1
Total: Syracuse 6 Rutgers 6
2p: 7, 8(5), 5(6), 5(6), -5(s), I, 9, 5(5), I, 11(13), 30TD, 6(1)
Total: Syracuse 3 Rutgers 9
Second Down Total: Syracuse 9 Rutgers 15
3r: 2(1), 0, 0, -1, 1(2), 3(1), 2(1), 5(12)
Total: Syracuse 5 Rutgers 3
3p: 2(7), 9(30), I, I, 5(11), 2(11)
Total: Syracuse 7 Rutgers 0
Third Down Total: Syracuse 12 Rutgers 3
4r: -8 (27), 4(1), 3(2), 2(1)
Total: Syracuse 1 Rutgers 3
4p: none
Total: Syracuse 0 Rutgers 0
Fourth Down Total: Syracuse 1 Rutgers 3

Total on running plays: Syracuse 17 Rutgers 24
Total on passing plays: Syracuse 15 Rutgers 15
Total on plays from scrimmage: Syracuse 32 Rutgers 39

Penalties not tacked on to plays: -15, +5, -5, -5, +11 Syracuse 2 Rutgers 3

Game total when Rutgers had the ball: Syracuse 35 Rutgers 54

Overall Game Total: Syracuse 64 Rutgers 101

Comments: So you thought you were watching a close game, one that we should have won because we were the better team? I was shocked to find that we’d ‘won’ only 64 plays to 101 for Rutgers. Where id that come from? A chunk of that is from the kicking game, were we were +2 when we kicked the ball and -11 when they did so. Both teams were atrocious on third down, (we were 7-0 on their third down passes). We were 9-17 on our first down plays and 10-18 defending theirs. We almost broke even on our second down plays, (9-10) but were 9-15 defending theirs. That’s’ -23 on first and second downs, which is why we were always facing third and long and they always seemed to have third and short. Oh, and we were 2-6 in penalties not tacked on to plays/ We got 75 yards on two plays for our sole score of the game. That’s your +70 yardage advantage. Sometimes the game is about big plays and sometimes it’s about making first downs – and avoiding turnovers. We created 24 turnovers last year, 1 so far this year.

In 2018 when we had such a good year, we were second in the country in drive start differential. We started at out 35 yards line. The opposition started at their 27. That’s because of a great kicking game and lot of forced turnovers, as well as sustained drives. We were -19 in this game, (SU 22 vs. RU 410, for the same reasons. Another way of looking at it: We had 13 possessions in which we stared a total of 292 yards form our goal. 1300-292 = 1,008 yards to go. They had the ball 14 times a total of 573 yards from their goal. 1400-573 = 827 yards to go. Even with the extra possession, they had 181 fewer yards to go to score. That’s how they more than negated our +70, (265-195) in actual yards gained. We averaged 6.4 yard on first down runs against Ohio U. Against Rut5gers it was 6.0? Yes, thanks to Tucker’s 24 yard TD run and DeVito’s late scramble that had a 15 yard penalty tacked onto it.

Similar games from Dino’s past:
2021 Syracuse 64 Rutgers 101 = -37 We lost 7-17
2020: Syracuse 79 Duke 114 = -35 We lost 24-38
2019: Syracuse 77 Clemson 113 = -36 We lost 6-41
2019: Syracuse 82 Maryland 112 = -30 We lost 20-63
2017: Syracuse 86 Miami 119 = -33 We lost 19-27
2016: Syracuse 71 North Carolina State 103 = -32 We lost 20-35
2016: Syracuse 99 Louisville 132 = -33 We lost 28-62

We may have the impression that we were the superior team against Rutgers and let victory slip through our fingers but we are 0-7 in the Babers Era in games where lost ‘winning plays’ by that margin with the average deficit being 23 points.

 

[SWC75]

GAME BY GAME and TOTALS FOR THE YEAR

When SYRACUSE had the ball:

Drive Starts: 261/9 = 29, 292/13 = 22 Season: 533/22 = 25

KO: 3-3 + 2-0 = 5-3
P: 2-0 + 4-4 = 6-4
FG: 2-0 + 0-1 = 2-1
XP: 3-0 + 1-0 = 4-0
Kicking plays total: 10-3 + 7-5 = 17-8

1r: 16-8 + 5-9 = 21-17
1p: 5-1 + 4-8 = 9-9
First Down Total: 21-9 + 9-17 = 30-26
2r: 10-4 + 3-5 = 13-9
2p: 4-3 + 6-5 = 10-8
Second Down Total: 14-7 + 9-10 = 23-17
3r: 6-0 + 1-1 = 7-1
3p: 2-4 + 2-11 = 4-15
Third Down Total: 8-4 + 3-12 = 11-16
4r: 0-0 + 1-0 = 1-0
4p: 0-0 + 0-0 = 0-0
Fourth Down Total: 0-0 + 1-0 = 1-0

Total on running plays: 32-12 + 10-15 = 42-27
Total on passing plays: 11-8 + 12-24 = 23-32
Total on plays from scrimmage: 43-20 + 22-39 = 65-59

Penalties not tacked on to plays: 0-0 + 0-3 = 0-3

Game total when SYRACUSE had the ball: 53-23 + 29-47 = 82-70


When OPPONENT had the ball:

Drive Starts: 139/8 = 17, 573/14 = 41

KO: 4-1 + 0-3 = 4-4
P: 1-0 + 0-6 = 1-6
FG: 1-3 + 1-1 = 2-4
XP: 0-0 + 0-2 = 0-2
Kicking plays total: 6-4 + 1-12 = 7-16

1r: 7-9 + 5-12 = 12-21
1p: 5-5 + 5-6 = 10-11
First Down Total: 12-14 + 10-18 = 22-32
2r: 3-9 + 6-6 = 9-15
2p: 5-5 + 3-9 = 8-14
Second Down Total: 8-14 + 9-15 = 17-29
3r: 2-3 + 5-3 = 7-6
3p: 4-3 + 7-0 = 11-3
Third Down Total: 6-6 + 12-3 = 18-9
4r: 0-1 + 1-3 = 1-4
4p: 1-0 + 0-0 = 1-0
Fourth Down Total: 1-1 + 1-3 = 2-4

Total on running plays: 12-22 + 17-24 = 29-46
Total on passing plays: 15-13 + 15-15 = 30-28
Total on plays from scrimmage: 27-35 + 32-39 = 59-74

Penalties not tacked on to plays: 0-1 + 2-3 = 2-4

Game total when OPPONENT had the ball: 33-40 + 35-54 = 68-94

Overall game total: 86-63 + 64-101 = 147-164

Comments: Ironically, (compared to perception, we are +12 (82-70) when we have the ball and -26 (68-94) when our opponents have the ball. We’re pretty good on 3rd and 4th down but give up too much on 1st and 2nd down. We also just have a single takeover in two games after 24 last year.

Still, in all sports, (I’m a Mets fan), when you score a lot, you can plaster over most of your problems. When you don’t, they all matter.

 

[SWC75]

HISTORICAL WINNING PLAYS (Babers Era – game totals only)

2016
Syracuse 101 Colgate 74 = +27
Syracuse 99 Louisville 132 = -33
Syracuse 95 South Florida 116 = -21
Syracuse 91 Connecticut 99 = -8
Syracuse 98 Notre Dame 111 = -13
Syracuse 72 Wake Forest 101 = -29
Syracuse 103 Virginia Tech 104 = -1
Syracuse 93 Boston College 84 = +9
Syracuse 74 Clemson 120 = -46
Syracuse 71 North Carolina State 103 = -32
Syracuse 71 Florida State 120 = -49
Syracuse 107 Pittsburgh 118 = -11
TOTAL: Syracuse 1075 Opponent 1282 = -207 We 'won' 2 of 12 games.

2017
Syracuse 132 Central Connecticut 65 = +67
Syracuse 104 Middle Tennessee 98 = +6
Syracuse 107 Central Michigan 100 = +7
Syracuse 80 Louisiana State 103 = -23
Syracuse 93 North Carolina State 112 = -19
Syracuse 97 Pittsburgh 96 = +1
Syracuse 95 Clemson 97= -2
Syracuse 86 Miami 119 = -33
Syracuse 90 Florida State 108 = -18
Syracuse 120 Wake Forest 125 = -5
Syracuse 96 Louisville 100 = -4
Syracuse 77 Boston College 87 = -10
TOTAL: Syracuse 1177 Opponents 1210 = -33 We ‘won’ 4 of12 games

2018
Syracuse 109 Western Michigan 96 = +13
Syracuse 139 Wagner 65 = +74
Syracuse 113 Florida State 77 = +36
Syracuse 109 Connecticut 83 = +26
Syracuse 86 Clemson 102= -16
Syracuse 99 Pittsburgh 97 = +2
Syracuse 113 North Carolina 115 = -2
Syracuse 113 North Carolina State 96 = +17
Syracuse 117 Wake Forest 107 = +10
Syracuse 124 Louisville 83 = +41
Syracuse 86 Notre Dame 99 = -13
Syracuse 110 Boston College 96 = +14
Syracuse 116 West Virginia 79 +37
TOTAL: Syracuse 1434 Opponents 1195 = +239 We ‘won’ 10 of 13 games

2019
Syracuse 104 Liberty 84 = +20
Syracuse 82 Maryland 112 = -30
Syracuse 77 Clemson 113 = -36
Syracuse 113 Western Michigan 99 =+14
Syracuse 110 Holy Cross 67 = +43
Syracuse 78 North Carolina State 100 = -22
Syracuse 92 Pittsburgh 114 = -22
Syracuse 96 Florida State 115 = -19
Syracuse 76 Boston College 119 = -43
Syracuse 107 Duke 78 = +29
Syracuse 85 Louisville 104 = -19
Syracuse 118 Wake Forest 111 = +7
TOTAL: Syracuse 1138 Opponents 1216 = -78 We ‘won’ 5 of 12 games

2020
Syracuse 70 North Carolina 114 = -44
Syracuse 78 Pittsburgh 89 = -11
Syracuse 108 Georgia Tech 102 = +6
Syracuse 79 Duke 114 = -35
Syracuse 77 Liberty 93 = -16
Syracuse 72 Clemson 112 = -40
Syracuse 76 Wake Forest 99 = -23
Syracuse 68 Boston College 96 = -28
Syracuse 76 Louisville 81 = -5
Syracuse 76 North Carolina State 108
Syracuse 82 Notre Dame 100
TOTAL: Syracuse 862 Opponents 1108 = -248 We ‘won’ 1 of 11 games

2021
Syracuse 86 Ohio U. 63 = +23
Syracuse 64 Rutgers 101 = -37
TOTAL: Syracuse 150-164 = -14 We’ve won 1 of 2 games

Totals since 2016: Syracuse has won 5,836 plays, (48.6%) and 23 games, (37.1%). The opposition has won 6,175 plays and 39 games. They’ve obtained their goals on 339 more plays than we have in 62 games, an average of 5.5 plays a game.