Winning Plays - the Holiday Bowl

[SWC75]

This season I will once again be charting Syracuse’s games in terms of “winning plays”. I look at the results of each play and decide which team got the minimum they wanted out of the play. Rather than making instinctive judgments, I use a formula:

- On first down, the offensive team wants to get at least a third of the way to a new first down: they will have two more plays before they might have to surrender the ball and if they gain that same amount of yards on each of those two plays, they’ll get the first down. If they don’t make it a third of the way to a new first down, the defense won the play.
- On second down, the offense wants to get at least halfway to a new first down by the same logic.
- On third and fourth down, they want to get the first down.
- Penalties, if added onto a play by the referees, are added on to the results above. If the offense gains 5 yards on first down but there was holding and they lost yardage instead, the defense won the play. If a running back made a 25 yard run on first and ten and the holding was 20 yards downfield, turning it into a 5 yard gain, that’s still a win for the offense. If the defense is penalized and it’s tacked on, again the net result is what is evaluated. The penalties I’ve listed negated the play entirely and are a “loss” for the penalized team and thus a win for their opponent.
- If a penalty was not tacked onto a play, it’s a lost play for the team being penalized. I'll count them separate from the other plays from scrimmage because I don't know if the intended play before the penalty would have been a run or a pass - so I wouldn't know where to put it in the chart below.
- A turnover is, obviously, a win for the team that wound up with the ball.
- On a kick-off a touchback brings the ball out to the 25 yard line. Teams still seem to be trying to kick the ball into the end zone and avoid a runback if they can, so any kick-off that results in the receiving team starting between their goal line and their 25 is a win for the kicking team. Beyond that, the receiving team wins.
- On a punt, a touchback takes the ball out of the 20. So any punt that results in the other team taking over from their goal line to their 20 is a win for the punting team. If the next change in field position is at least 40 yards, the punting team has also won the play.
- A successful place kick is, obviously, a win for the kicking team.
- Any play that results in a touchdown is, obviously, a win for that team that scores it.
- A “victory play” where a team accepts a loss just to let the clock run out, is a win for the offensive team.

I will indicate in parenthesis how many yards there were to go to get a new first down, (if other than 10), unless it was for no gain or negative yardage. If it was a touchdown, (“TD)” a scramble/sack (“S”) a victory play (“V”) or involved a penalty (P). I’ll treat a scramble or a sack as a passing play as the Cuse.com play by play now tells you when it’s either of those two. 1R means first down running plays. 1P means first down passing plays, etc.

I have decided to list the “Big Plays” at the bottom of each team’s summary. A big play is a play from scrimmage of over 20 yards, (or 20+ yards lost), kickoff returns of +25 yards, punt returns of +20, blocked kicks, missed kicks, and takeovers on fumbles, interceptions and downs.


When Syracuse had the ball:

Drive Starts: SU 26, SU 25, SU 49, SU 25, SU 25, SU 6, SU 20, SU 24, WS 9, SU 28, SU 20, SU 13 = 31/12 = SU 26 with 888 yards to go with one more possession.

KO: WS 25, WS 27, WS 25, WS 35, WS 32, WS 25, WS 47, WS 29, WS 33
Total: Syracuse 3 Washington State 6
P: SU 38 to WS 32, Blocked for TD
Total: Syracuse 0 Washington State 2
FG: NG from 39, Good from 30
Total: Syracuse 1 Washington State 1
XP: Try – NG, Try – Good, Good, Good, Good, Good, Good
Total: Syracuse 6 Washington State 1
Kicking plays total: Syracuse 10 Washington State 10

1r: 17, 8, 1, 12TD, I, 7, 3, 15, 27, 3(5), 6, 5TD, 4, 16, 1, 6, -1v
Total: Syracuse 12 Washington State 5
1p: I. 4. 19, I, 17, I, 17, 4, -4(s), 10, 50, 9, -7, -6(s), 15(p), 33TD
Total: Syracuse 10 Washington State 6
First Down Total: Syracuse 22 Washington State 11
2r: 14(2), 9(3), 2TD, 7(4), 17(6), 3(1)
Total: Syracuse 6 Washington State 0
2p: I, 29, 19TD, 18(8), 2, 23(7), 18TD, I, 5(14), I, 45TD, I, , 41(4)
Total: Syracuse 7 Washington State 67
Second Down Total: Syracuse 13 Washington State 7
3r: None
Total: Syracuse 0 Washington State 0
3p: I, I, 28, 0, 49, -14(s)
Total: Syracuse 2 Washington State 3
Third Down Total: Syracuse 2 Washington State 3
4r: None
Total: Syracuse 0 Washington State 0
4p: None
Total: Syracuse 0 Washington State 0
Fourth Down Total: Syracuse 0 Washington State 0

Total on running plays: Syracuse 18 Washington State 5
Total on passing plays: Syracuse 19 Washington State 16
Total on plays from scrimmage: Syracuse 37 Washington State 21

Penalties not tacked on to plays: -5, +15, -5 Syracuse 1 Washington State 2

Game total when Syracuse had the ball: Syracuse 48 Washington State 33

Big Plays: 29pass, 23pass, INT, 27run, 28pass, 50pass, 45pass-TD, INT, 49pass, 41pass, 33pass-TD

Comments: Here is a history our horrible kicking game this year, tracked by winning plays:
Ohio U. 16-0
Georgia Tech 11-3
Stanford 13-1
Holy Cross 14-4
UNLV 12-4
NC State 9-2
Pittsburgh 7-3
Virginia Tech 14-3
Boston College 13-2
California 15-2
Connecticut 11-3
U of Miami 14-1
Washington St. 10-10

This was by far our worst game on ‘special teams’, even worse than the UNLV game. In fact I don’t remember a game since I’ve been keeping track of these things, (which dates back to the Shafer Era), which we didn’t ‘win’ the kicking game. Brady Denaberg may have been an uncertain place kicker but his booming kicks into the end zone are missed. And I think Jack Stonehouse needs three guys in front of him, (as everybody else does), not two. I think some new personnel as well as a new coach is needed to replace Denaberg and get us a good placekicker.

When I look at a box score, one of the first things I look at is 3rd and 4th down success. It’s been a big advantage for us most of the year. In this game, we were 2 for 6 and the Cougars were 10 for 19. That suggests a disaster. Actually the low number of third down plays, (we never ran a 4th down play from scrimmage), was a good sign: we ran 33 first down plays, 19 second down plays, 6 third down plays and no 4th down plays.

For much of this season, Kyle McCord has been a short or intermediate passer. It may be a reason he’s under-rated nationally and by the pro scouts. I thought maybe it was the absence of Zeed Haynes, his main target in pre-season camp. But in this game, he completed 8 passes of more than 20 yards, half of them for more than 40 yards. He can make all the throws.


When Washington State had the ball:

Drive Starts: WS 32, WS 25, WS 27, WS 25, WS 35, WS 32, WS25, WS 21,WS 47, WS 49, WS 33 = 331/11 = WS 30 with 769 yards to go in one less possession.

KO: SU 26, SU 25, SU 25, SU 25, WS 49, SU 13
Total: Syracuse 2 Washington State 4
P: WS 43 to WS 49
Total: Syracuse 0 Washington State 1
FG: No Good from 41, No Good from 37
Total: Syracuse 2 Washington State 0
XP: Good, Good, Good, Good, Good
Total: Syracuse 0 Washington State 5
Kicking plays total: Syracuse 4 Washington State 10

1r: 3, 3, 1, 4, 1, 0, 3, 7, 4, 3, 6, 4, 1, -1, 19, 2, 6, 4
Total: Syracuse 10 Washington State 8
1p: 16, 3, 18, 13, 9, 4, I, 22, I, -2, INT, I, 10, 7, 9TD
Total: Syracuse 7 Washington State 8
First Down Total: Syracuse 17 Washington State 16
2r: 2(7), 4TD, 1(9), 4(7), 8(6), 9, 1(6), 1(12)
Total: Syracuse 4 Washington State 4
2p: 31(7), 12(6), 3, 6(1), I, 2(6), -5(3), 2(4), 29, 8(8), 4(20), I, I
Total: Syracuse 6 Washington State 8
Second Down Total: Syracuse 10 Washington State 12
3r: 1(1)
Total: Syracuse 0 Washington State 1
3p: 8(5), 0, 66TD, INT, 6(7), I, I, 4(5), 42TD, 5(6), I, 6(4), 5(3), 20(6)
Total: Syracuse 7 Washington State 7
Third Down Total: Syracuse 7 Washington State 8
4r: -1, 1(1), 1(1)
Total: Syracuse 1 Washington State 2
4p: 13(2)
Total: Syracuse 0 Washington State 1
Fourth Down Total: Syracuse 1 Washington State 3

Total on running plays: Syracuse 15 Washington State 15
Total on passing plays: Syracuse 20 Washington State 24
Total on plays from scrimmage: Syracuse 35 Washington State 39

Penalties not tacked on to plays: +10, +15, +5, +5, -10 Syracuse 1 Washington State 4

Game total when Washington State had the ball: Syracuse 40 Washington State 53

Big Plays: 31pass, 66pass-TD, 22pass, 44pass -TD, 29pass, 20pass (6)

Overall Game Total: Syracuse 88 Washington State 86

Comments: You’ve got to give the Cougars credit for a very competitive performance with the players they lost. And you’ve got to wonder who would have won it both teams were full strength, (and that includes us). It sure wasn’t like last year’s Boca Raton Bowl. But we won the game that was played to go 10-3, and we can be glad of that.

88-86 = this was a +2 game. These are the closest games to that we’ve had since the beginning of the Dino Babers Era, (which I include to have a good sample):
2018 Syracuse 99 Pittsburgh 97 = +2 SU lost in OT at Pitt, 37-44
2023 Syracuse 76 Georgia Tech 73 = +3 SU lost 22-31(bye bye Dino!)
2024 Syracuse 90 Georgia Tech 87 = +3 SU won 31-28
2017 Syracuse 97 Pittsburgh 96 = +1 SU won 27-24 (and did by the same score vs. Clemson the next week).
2024 Syracuse 92 Virginia Tech 91 = +1 SU won 38-31 in OT.

If you don’t dominate the plays, the game is up for grabs.

 

[SWC75]

TOTALS FOR THE YEAR

When SYRACUSE had the ball:

Drive Starts: 284/11 = S26/816, 237/9 = S26/663, 361/12 = S30/839, 524/14 = S37/876, 344/11 = S 31/756, 305/9 = S34/595, 322/13 = S25/978, 415/13 = S32/885, 321/10 = S32/679, 344/12= SU 29/856, 269/10 = S27/732, 312/12 = S26/888 TOTAL: 4,038/136 =S30 with 9,563 yards to go (115 less than the opposition with four more possessions).

KO: 7-0 + 5-1 + 4-0 + 6-1 + 6-1 + 4-1 + 3-0 + 5-1 + 4-2 + 6-2 + 5-0 + 7-0 + 3-6 = 65-15
P: 3-0 + 1-1+ 5-1 + 2-0 + 0-3 + 1-0 + 2-1 + 4-1 + 4-0 + 2-0 + 2-1 + 1-1 + 0-2 = 27-11
FG: 1-0 + 1-1 + 1-0 + 0-3 + 1-0 + 1-1 + 1-1 + 1-0 + 1-0 + 4-0 + 1-2 + 0-0 + 1-1 = 14-9
XP: 5-0 + 4-0 + 3-0 + 6-0 + 5-0 + 3-0 + 1-1 + 4-1 + 4-0 + 3-0 + 3-0 + 6-0 + 6-1 = 53-3
Kicking plays total: 16-0 + 11-3 + 13-1+ 14-4 + 12-4 + 9-2 + 7-3 + 14-3 + 13-2 + 15-2 + 11-3 + 14-1 + 10-10 = 159-38

1r: 7-10 + 5-8 + 5-5 + 13-8 + 9-9 + 8-12 + 4-6 + 10-9 + 7-8 + 11-9 + 5-10 + 10-8 + 12-5 = 106-107
1p: 8-6 + 14-7 + 7-11 + 11-11 + 10-9 + 9-4 + 6-21 + 7-7 + 14-9 + 8-6 + 14-5 + 6-10 + 10-6 = 124-112
First Down Total: 15-16 + 19-15 + 12-16 + 24-19 + 19-18 + 17-16 + 10-27 + 17-16 + 21-17 + 19-15 + 19-15 + 16-18 + 22-11 = 230-219
2r: 3-6 + 9-4 + 1-2 + 6-5 + 8-4 + 3-5 + 6-6 + 5-3 + 2-2 + 8-1 + 8-1 + 8-4 + 6-0 = 73-43
2p: 8-5 + 7-6 + 11-5 + 8-12 + 11-13 + 10-7 + 9-11 + 6-7 + 11-9 + 10-9 + 10-6 + 11-2 + 7-6 = 119-98
Second Down Total: 11-11 + 16-10 + 12-7 + 14-17 + 19-17 + 13-12 + 15-17 + 11-10 + 13-11 + 18-10 + 18-7 + 19-6 + 13-6 = 192-141
3r: 1-1 + 2-2 + 0-0 + 1-1 + 2-1 + 2-0 + 2-3 + 4-1 + 1-1 + 3-2 + 3-1 + 1-2 + 0-0 = 22-15
3p: 8-5 + 7-5 + 4-8 + 8-7 + 10-5 + 7-6 + 4-11 + 4-5 + 3-9 + 6-5 + 6-7 + 6-1 + 2-4 = 75-78
Third Down Total: 9-6 + 9-7 + 4-8 + 9-8 + 12-6 + 9-6 + 6-14 + 8-6 + 4-10 + 9-7 + 9-8 + 7-3 + 2-4 = 97-93
4r: 1-0 + 2-0 + 0-0 + 0-0 + 2-0 + 0-0 + 2-0 + 1-0 + 0-0 + 1-0 + 2-0 + 0-0 + 0-0 = 11-0
4p: 0-0 + 0-0 + 0-0 + 1-1 + 0-0 + 2-1 + 5-2 + 0-0 + 0-3 + 3-0 + 0-1 + 0-1 +0-0 = 11-9
Fourth Down Total: 1-0 + 2-0 + 0-0 + 1-1 + 2-0 + 2-1 + 7-2 + 1-0 + 0-3 + 4-0 + 2-1 + 0-1 = 22-9

Total on running plays: 12-17 + 18-14 + 6-7 + 20-14 + 21-14 + 13-17 + 14-15 + 20-13 + 10-11 + 23-12 + 18-12 + 19-14+ 18-5 = 212-165
Total on passing plays: 24-16 + 28-18 + 22-24 + 28-31 + 31-27 + 28-18 + 24-45 + 17-19 + 28-30 + 27-20 + 30-19 + 23-14 + 19-16 = 329-297
Total on plays from scrimmage: 36-33 + 46-32 + 28-31 + 48-45 + 52-41 + 41-35 + 38-60 + 37-32 + 38-41+ 50-32 + 48-31+ 42-28 + 37-21 = 541-462

Penalties not tacked on to plays: 0-1 + 0-2 + 0-4 + 1-2 + 7-5 + 2-3 + 2-6 + 3-4 + 0-3 + 1-5 + 2-6 + 5-2 + 1-2 = 24-45

Game total when SYRACUSE had the ball: 52-34 + 57-37 + 41-36 + 63-51 + 71-50 + 52-40 + 47-69 + 54-39 + 51-46 + 66-39 + 61-40 + 61-31 + 48-33 = 724-545

Big plays: 6 + 8 + 5 + 8 + 6 + 5 + 6 + 7 + 7 + 8 + 9 + 11 = 86

Comments: You wouldn’t have guessed it but our running game and our passing game both have positive numbers. In fact, our runs are +47, (212-165) and our passes +32, (329-297). Passes have more potential but also more risk. Also, we aren’t getting big plays on defense and special teams due to lack of pressure. We are 97-93 on third down but 22-9 on fourth down. We are 106-107 on first down runs and 73-43 on second down runs. Why not pass on first and run on second? I think our goal next year should be to better than 230-219 on first down. First down sets up the whole down series. We might not have Kyle McCord to bail us out next year.


When OPPONENT had the ball:

Drive Starts: 241/11 = O22/859, 279/10 = O28/721, 310/12 = O26/890, 328/14 = O23/1,072, 401/11 = O36/699 183/8 = O23/617, 321/10 = O32/679, 441/14 = O31.5/959, 234/10 = O23/766, 292/11 = O27/808, 261/11 = O24/839, 331/11 = O30/769 TOTAL= 3,622/133 = 027 with 9,678 yards to go, (115 more than SU with four fewer possessions).

KO: 0-6 + 0-5 + 0-5 + 2-1 + 0-7 + 1-3 + 1-7 + 0-6 + 0-6 + 2-3 + 2-3 + 0-7 + 2-4 = 10-63
P: 0-3 + 1-3 + 0-3 + 6-4 + 0-2 + 1-0 + 0-5 + 2-3 + 3-1 + 3-0 + 1-5 + 1-2 + 0-1 = 18-32
FG: 0-3 + 1-0 + 0-4 + 0-0 + 0-2 + 1-1 + 0-2 + 0-1 + 1-0 + 1-1 + 0-1 + 0-1 + 2-0 = 6-16
XP: 0-2 + 0-4 + 0-2 + 0-2 + 0-5 + 0-2 + 0-5 + 0-3 + 0-5 + 0-3 + 0-3 + 0-5 + 0-5 = 0-46
Kicking plays total: 0-14 + 2-12 + 0-14 + 8-7 + 0-16 + 3-6 + 1-19 + 2-13 + 4-12 + 6-7 + 3-12 + 1-15 + 4-10 = 34-157

1r: 8-13 + 6-4 + 8-9 + 11-1 + 7-8 + 9-4 + 4-6 + 11-8 + 11-15 + 6-2 + 4-2 + 8-9 + 10-8 = 103-89
1p: 7-8 + 7-9 + 8-7 + 2-5 + 2-9 + 5-9 + 4-6 + 8-5 + 0-4 + 10-6 + 11-10 + 7-10 + 7-8 = 78-96
First Down Total: 15-21 + 13-13 + 16-16 + 13-6 + 9-17 + 14-13 + 8-12 + 19-13 + 11-19 + 16-8 + 15-12 + 15-19 + 17-16 = 181-185
2r: 1-9 + 4-7 + 5-5 + 1-2 + 5-1 + 1-5 + 3-3 + 4-10 + 6-10 + 4-5 + 4-0 + 4-5 + 4-4 = 46-66
2p: 5-6 + 4-8 + 6-6 + 12-2 + 4-7 + 2-4 + 2-6 + 3-8 + 3-1 + 5-4 + 8-8 + 5-10 + 6-8 = 65-78
Second Down Total: 6-15 + 8-15 + 11-11 + 13-4 + 9-8 + 3-9 + 5-9 + 7-18 + 9-11 + 9-9 + 12-8 + 9-15 + 10-12 = 111-144
3r: 1-2 + 1-4 + 2-1 + 3-1 + 1-0 + 0-0 + 3-0 + 3-4 + 3-3 + 0-2 + 1-3 + 1-4 + 0-1 = 19-25
3p: 5-3 + 5-4 + 6-4 + 9-1 + 3-3 + 4-1 + 3-2 + 3-1 + 6-2 + 5-6 + 9-3 + 5-2 + 7-7 = 70-39
Third Down Total: 6-5 + 6-8 + 8-5 + 12-2 + 4-3 + 4-1 + 6-2 + 6-5 + 9-5 + 5-8 + 10-6 + 6-6 + 7-8 = 89-64
4r: 0-0 + 1-0 + 0-1 + 1-0 + 0-0 + 0-0 + 0-0 + 0-0 + 0-1 + 0-0 + 0-1 + 0-0 + 1-2 = 3-5
4p: 0-1 + 0-1 + 0-1 + 0-0 + 0-0 + 0-1 + 0-0 + 0-0 + 0-0 + 0-0 + 0-0 + 0-0 + 0-1 = 0-5
Fourth Down Total: 0-1 + 1-1 + 0-2 + 1-0 + 0-0 + 0-1 + 0-0 + 0-0 + 0-1 + 0-0 + 0-1 + 0-0 + 1-3 = 3-10

Total on running plays: 10-24 + 12-15 + 15-16 + 16-4 + 13-9 + 10-9 + 10-9 + 18-22 + 20-29 + 10-9 + 9-6 + 13-18 + 15-15 = 171-185
Total on passing plays: 17-18 + 16-22 + 20-18 + 23-8 + 9-19 + 11-15 + 9-14 + 14-14 + 9-7 + 20-16 + 28-21 + 17-22 + 20-24 = 213-218
Total on plays from scrimmage: 27-42 + 28-37 + 35-34 + 39-12 + 22-28 + 21-24 +19-23 + 32-36 + 29-36 + 30-25 + 37-27 + 30-40 + 35-39 = 384-403

Penalties not tacked on to plays: 1-3 + 3-1 + 1-7 + 2-1+ 1-1 + 3-5 + 1-1 + 4-3 + 1-1 + 3-1 + 2-1 + 1-2 + 1-4 = 24-31

Game total when OPPONENT had the ball: 28-59 + 33-50 + 36-55 + 49-20 + 23-45 + 27-35 + 21-43 + 38-52 + 34-49 + 39-33 + 42-40 + 32-57 + 40-53 = 442-591

Big Plays: 7 + 9 + 4 + 5 + 5 + 9 + 6 + 4 + 4 + 6 = 59

Overall Game Total: 80-93 + 90-87 + 77-91 + 112-71 + 94-95+ 79-75 + 68-112 + 92-91 + 85-95 +105-72 + 103-80 + 93-88 + 88-86 = 1,166-1,136

Comments: We’ve won 724 plays with the ball and only 442 when we didn’t have it. That means we’ve run a lot more plays than they did. Staying on the field, extending and finishing drives – that’s why we are 10-3.



HISTORICAL WINNING PLAYS – The Fran Brown Era

2024
Syracuse 80 Ohio University 93 = -13
Syracuse 90 Georgia Tech 87 = +3
Syracuse 77 Stanford 91 = -14
Syracuse 112 Holy Cross 71 = +41
Syracuse 94 Nevada-Las Vegas 95 = -1
Syracuse 79 North Carolina State 75 = +4
Syracuse 68 Pittsburgh 112 = -44
Syracuse 92 Virginia Tech 91 = +1
Syracuse 85 Boston College 95 = -10
Syracuse 105 California 72 = +33
Syracuse 103 Connecticut 62 = +23
Syracuse 93 U of Miami 88 = +5
Syracuse 88 Washington State 86 = +2
TOTAL: Syracuse: 1,166 Opponents 1,136 = +30 We’ve won 8 of 13 games, (61.5%) per ‘winning plays’ (Dino won 39.8%). We have won 50.7% of the 2,302 plays, (Dino Babers won 48.8%). Our team has achieved its goals on 30 more plays than the opposition, 2.3 more plays per game.