Winning Plays - U of Miami

[SWC75]

This season I will once again be charting Syracuse’s games in terms of “winning plays”. I look at the results of each play and decide which team got the minimum they wanted out of the play. Rather than making instinctive judgments, I use a formula:

- On first down, the offensive team wants to get at least a third of the way to a new first down: they will have two more plays before they might have to surrender the ball and if they gain that same amount of yards on each of those two plays, they’ll get the first down. If they don’t make it a third of the way to a new first down, the defense won the play.
- On second down, the offense wants to get at least halfway to a new first down by the same logic.
- On third and fourth down, they want to get the first down.
- Penalties, if added onto a play by the referees, are added on to the results above. If the offense gains 5 yards on first down but there was holding and they lost yardage instead, the defense won the play. If a running back made a 25 yard run on first and ten and the holding was 20 yards downfield, turning it into a 5 yard gain, that’s still a win for the offense. If the defense is penalized and it’s tacked on, again the net result is what is evaluated. The penalties I’ve listed negated the play entirely and are a “loss” for the penalized team and thus a win for their opponent.
- If a penalty was not tacked onto a play, it’s a lost play for the team being penalized. I'll count them separate from the other plays from scrimmage because I don't know if the intended play before the penalty would have been a run or a pass - so I wouldn't know where to put it in the chart below.
- A turnover is, obviously, a win for the team that wound up with the ball.
- On a kick-off a touchback brings the ball out to the 25 yard line. Teams still seem to be trying to kick the ball into the end zone and avoid a runback if they can, so any kick-off that results in the receiving team starting between their goal line and their 25 is a win for the kicking team. Beyond that, the receiving team wins.
- On a punt, a touchback takes the ball out of the 20. So any punt that results in the other team taking over from their goal line to their 20 is a win for the punting team. If the next change in field position is at least 40 yards, the punting team has also won the play.
- A successful place kick is, obviously, a win for the kicking team.
- Any play that results in a touchdown is, obviously, a win for that team that scores it.
- A “victory play” where a team accepts a loss just to let the clock run out, is a win for the offensive team.

I will indicate in parenthesis how many yards there were to go to get a new first down, (if other than 10), unless it was for no gain or negative yardage. If it was a touchdown, (“TD)” a scramble/sack (“S”) a victory play (“V”) or involved a penalty (P). I’ll treat a scramble or a sack as a passing play as the Cuse.com play by play now tells you when it’s either of those two. 1R means first down running plays. 1P means first down passing plays, etc.

I have decided to list the “Big Plays” at the bottom of each team’s summary. A big play is a play from scrimmage of over 20 yards, (or 20+ yards lost), kickoff returns of +25 yards, punt returns of +20, blocked kicks, missed kicks, and takeovers on fumbles, interceptions and downs.

When Syracuse had the ball:

Drive Starts: SU 25, SU 25, SU 25, SU 33, SU 15, SU 25, SU 25, SU 45, SU 25, SU 25 = 268/10 = SU 27 with 732 yards to go (107 less that U of Miami in one less possession)

KO: UM 25, UM 25, UM 25, UM 25, UM 25, UM 25, UM 25,
Total: Syracuse 7 U of Miami 0
P: 64 to UM 7, 39 to UM 25
Total: Syracuse 1 U of Miami 1
FG: None
Total: Syracuse 0 U of Miami 0
XP: Good, Good, Good, Good, Good, Good,
Total: Syracuse 6 U of Miami 0
Kicking plays total: Syracuse 14 U of Miami 1

1r: 1, 2, 5, 10, 5, 3, 4, 5, 5, FUMBLE, 9, 1, 2(5), 11, 4, 6, 0, -2v
Total: Syracuse 10 U of Miami 8
1p: 11, 5, -8(s), 26, I, I, I, I, 3, I, I, 25TD, -8(s), 11, 29, I
Total: Syracuse 6 U of Miami 10
First Down Total: Syracuse 16 U of Miami 18
2r: 3(7), 3, 8, 4(5), 2(7), 4(7), 3(5), 2(1), 2, 3TD, 7(6), -1v
Total: Syracuse 8 U of Miami 4
2p: 14(18), 23(8), 11(5), 7, 3, I, 5, 50, 33(18), 21(6), 9TD, 12(9), 11(10)
Total: Syracuse 11 U of Miami 2
Second Down Total: Syracuse 19 U of Miami 6
3r: 0, -2, 2(1)
Total: Syracuse 1 U of Miami 2
3p: 13(4), 7(3), 5(5), 9(9), 9(3), I, 25(8)
Total: Syracuse 6 U of Miami 1
Third Down Total: Syracuse 7 U of Miami 3
4r: None
Total: Syracuse 0 U of Miami 0
4p: I
Total: Syracuse 0 U of Miami 1
Fourth Down Total: Syracuse 0 U of Miami 1

Total on running plays: Syracuse 19 U of Miami 14
Total on passing plays: Syracuse 23 U of Miami 14
Total on plays from scrimmage: Syracuse 42 U of Miami 28

Penalties not tacked on to plays: -5, +5, +10, -10, +15, +15, +5 Syracuse 5 U of Miami 2

Game total when Syracuse had the ball: Syracuse 61 U of Miami 31

Big Plays: 23pass, 26 pass, 50 pass, 25passTD, 33pass, 21pass, 25pass, Fumble return TD, 29pass (9)

Comments: Here is a ranking of SU’s performances when they had the ball:
Vs. U of Miami: 61-31
Vs. California 66-39
Vs. Connecticut 61-40
Vs. UNLV 71-50
Vs. Georgia Tech 57-37
Vs. Ohio U. 52-34
Vs. Virginia Tech 54-39
Vs. North Carolina St. 52-40
Vs. Holy Cross 63-51
Vs. Stanford 41-36
Vs. Boston College 51-46
Vs. Pittsburgh 47-69

The top three performances are the last three. The Pitt game was a real outlier – but one a lot of people watched.


When U of MIami had the ball:

Drive Starts: UM 25, UM 37, UM 7, UM 25, UM 25, UM 25, UM 25, UM 25, UM 17, UM 25, UM 25 = 261/9 = UM 24 with 839 yards to go (107 more than Syracuse in one more possession)

KO: SU 25, SU 25, SU 25, SU 25, SU 25, SU 25, SU 25
Total: Syracuse 0 U of Miami 7
P: 37 to SU 33, 31 to SU 15
Total: Syracuse 1 U of Miami 2
FG: Good from 27
Total: Syracuse 0 U of Miami 1
XP: Good, Good, Good, Good, Good
Total: Syracuse 0 U of Miami 5
Kicking plays total: Syracuse 1 U of Miami 15

1r: 6, 2, 9, 2TD, 7, 2, 3, 4, -1, 2, 3, 2, 29, 4, 2TD, 9, 3
Total: Syracuse 8 U of Miami 9
1p: 12, I, 10, 25, 19, I, 25, 20, I, I, 2, I, 9, 15, 7, 16, I
Total: Syracuse 7 U of Miami 10
First Down Total: Syracuse 15 U of Miami 19
2r: 5(1), 21(6), 3(6), 2(8), 17, 4(6), -7p, 2(6), 3
Total: Syracuse 4 U of Miami 5
2p: I, 9(8), I, 16TD, 40(7), 6(11), 27(8), -8(s), 4(8), 40(1), 2(3), 6(1), I, 6(23)
Total: Syracuse 5 U of Miami 10
Second Down Total: Syracuse 9 U of Miami 15
3r: 3(3), 3TD, 2TD, 4(1), 5(15)
Total: Syracuse 1 U of Miami 4
3p: 19, I, I, I, Fumble-TD, 5(4), I
Total: Syracuse 5 U of Miami 2
Third Down Total: Syracuse 6 U of Miami 6
4r: None
Total: Syracuse 0 U of Miami 0
4p: None
Total: Syracuse 0 U of Miami 0
Fourth Down Total: Syracuse 0 U of Miami 0

Total on running plays: Syracuse 13 U of Miami 18
Total on passing plays: Syracuse 17 U of Miami 22
Total on plays from scrimmage: Syracuse 30 U of Miami 40

Penalties not tacked on to plays: +10, -5, -15 Syracuse 1 U of Miami 2

Game total when U of MIami had the ball: Syracuse 32 U of Miami 57

Big Plays: 25pass, 40pass, 21run, 25pass, 20pass, Fumble recovery, 29run, 40pass (8)

Overall Game Total: Syracuse 93 U of Miami 88

Comments: Here is a ranking of SU’s performances when the other team had the ball:
Vs. Holy Cross: 49-20
Vs. California: 39-33
Vs. Connecticut: 42-40
Vs. NC State: 27-35
Vs. Boston College: 34-49
Vs. Virginia Tech: 38-52
Vs. Georgia Tech: 33-50
Vs. Stanford: 36-55
Vs. UNLV: 23-45
Vs. Pittsburgh: 21-43
Vs. U of Miami: 32-57
Vs. Ohio U. 28-59
No real pattern here. We won the top 4 games and 3 of the bottom four.

This was a +5 game, (93-88). These are the closest games to this since the beginning of the Babers era, (Next year I’ll just make comparisons to the Fran Brown Era. I just needed a larger database for the first season.)
2017 Syracuse 104 Middle Tennessee 98 = +6 We lost 23-30
2017 Syracuse 107 Central Michigan 100 = +7 We won 41-17
2019 Syracuse 118 Wake Forest 111 = +7 We won 39-30 in OT
2020 Syracuse 108 Georgia Tech 102 = +6 We won 37-20
2021 Syracuse 86 Boston College 79 = +7 We won 21-6
2022 Syracuse 99 Purdue 92 = +7 We won 32-29
2023 Syracuse 80 Pittsburgh 73 = +7 We won 28-13
2023 Syracuse 76 Georgia Tech 73 = +3 We lost 22-31
2023 Syracuse 82 Wake Forest 78 = +4 We won 35-31
2024 Syracuse 90 Georgia Tech 87 = +3 We won 31-28
If Syracuse can win the plays, we can win the games.

 

[SWC75]

TOTALS FOR THE YEAR

When SYRACUSE had the ball:

Drive Starts: 284/11 = S26/816, 237/9 = S26/663, 361/12 = S30/839, 524/14 = S37/876, 344/11 = S 31/756, 305/9 = S34/595, 322/13 = S25/978, 415/13 = S32/885, 321/10 = S32/679, 344/12= SU 29/856 269/10 = S27/732 TOTAL: 3,726/124 =S30 with 8,675 yards to go (127 less than the opposition with three more possessions).

KO: 7-0 + 5-1 + 4-0 + 6-1 + 6-1 + 4-1 + 3-0 + 5-1 + 4-2 + 6-2 + 5-0 + 7-0 = 62-9
P: 3-0 + 1-1+ 5-1 + 2-0 + 0-3 + 1-0 + 2-1 + 4-1 + 4-0 + 2-0 + 2-1 + 1-1 = 27-9
FG: 1-0 + 1-1 + 1-0 + 0-3 + 1-0 + 1-1 + 1-1 + 1-0 + 1-0 + 4-0 + 1-2 + 0-0 = 13-8
XP: 5-0 + 4-0 + 3-0 + 6-0 + 5-0 + 3-0 + 1-1 + 4-1 + 4-0 + 3-0 + 3-0 + 6-0 = 47-2
Kicking plays total: 16-0 + 11-3 + 13-1+ 14-4 + 12-4 + 9-2 + 7-3 + 14-3 + 13-2 + 15-2 + 11-3 + 14-1 = 149-28

1r: 7-10 + 5-8 + 5-5 + 13-8 + 9-9 + 8-12 + 4-6 + 10-9 + 7-8 + 11-9 + 5-10 + 10-8 = 94-102
1p: 8-6 + 14-7 + 7-11 + 11-11 + 10-9 + 9-4 + 6-21 + 7-7 + 14-9 + 8-6 + 14-5 + 6-10 = 114-106
First Down Total: 15-16 + 19-15 + 12-16 + 24-19 + 19-18 + 17-16 + 10-27 + 17-16 + 21-17 + 19-15 + 19-15 + 16-18 = 208-208
2r: 3-6 + 9-4 + 1-2 + 6-5 + 8-4 + 3-5 + 6-6 + 5-3 + 2-2 + 8-1 + 8-1 + 8-4 = 67-43
2p: 8-5 + 7-6 + 11-5 + 8-12 + 11-13 + 10-7 + 9-11 + 6-7 + 11-9 + 10-9 + 10-6 + 11-2 = 112-92
Second Down Total: 11-11 + 16-10 + 12-7 + 14-17 + 19-17 + 13-12 + 15-17 + 11-10 + 13-11 + 18-10 + 18-7 + 19-6 = 179-135
3r: 1-1 + 2-2 + 0-0 + 1-1 + 2-1 + 2-0 + 2-3 + 4-1 + 1-1 + 3-2 + 3-1 + 1-2 = 22-15
3p: 8-5 + 7-5 + 4-8 + 8-7 + 10-5 + 7-6 + 4-11 + 4-5 + 3-9 + 6-5 + 6-7 + 6-1 = 73-74
Third Down Total: 9-6 + 9-7 + 4-8 + 9-8 + 12-6 + 9-6 + 6-14 + 8-6 + 4-10 + 9-7 + 9-8 + 7-3 = 95-89
4r: 1-0 + 2-0 + 0-0 + 0-0 + 2-0 + 0-0 + 2-0 + 1-0 + 0-0 + 1-0 + 2-0 + 0-0 = 11-0
4p: 0-0 + 0-0 + 0-0 + 1-1 + 0-0 + 2-1 + 5-2 + 0-0 + 0-3 + 3-0 + 0-1 + 0-1 = 11-9
Fourth Down Total: 1-0 + 2-0 + 0-0 + 1-1 + 2-0 + 2-1 + 7-2 + 1-0 + 0-3 + 4-0 + 2-1 + 0-1 = 22-9

Total on running plays: 12-17 + 18-14 + 6-7 + 20-14 + 21-14 + 13-17 + 14-15 + 20-13 + 10-11 + 23-12 + 18-12 + 19-14 = 194-160
Total on passing plays: 24-16 + 28-18 + 22-24 + 28-31 + 31-27 + 28-18 + 24-45 + 17-19 + 28-30 + 27-20 + 30-19 + 23-14 = 310-281
Total on plays from scrimmage: 36-33 + 46-32 + 28-31 + 48-45 + 52-41 + 41-35 + 38-60 + 37-32 + 38-41+ 50-32 + 48-31+ 42-28 = 504-441

Penalties not tacked on to plays: 0-1 + 0-2 + 0-4 + 1-2 + 7-5 + 2-3 + 2-6 + 3-4 + 0-3 + 1-5 + 2-6 + 5-2 = 23-43

Game total when SYRACUSE had the ball: 52-34 + 57-37 + 41-36 + 63-51 + 71-50 + 52-40 + 47-69 + 54-39 + 51-46 + 66-39 + 61-40 + 61-31 = 676-512

Big plays: 6 + 8 + 5 + 8 + 6 + 5 + 6 + 7 + 7 + 8 + 9 = 75

Comments: You wouldn’t have guessed it but our running game and our passing game both have positive numbers. In fact, our runs are +34, (194-160) and our passes +29, (310-281). Passes have more potential but also more risk. Also, we aren’t getting big plays on defense and special teams due to lack of pressure. We are 95-89 on third down but 22-9 on fourth down. We are 94-102 on first down runs and 67-43 on second down runs. Why not pass on first and run on second? I think our goal next year should be to better than 208-208 on first down. First down sets up the whole down series. We won’t have Kyle McCord to bail us out next year.


When OPPONENT had the ball:

Drive Starts: 241/11 = O22/859, 279/10 = O28/721, 310/12 = O26/890, 328/14 = O23/1,072, 401/11 = O36/699 183/8 = O23/617, 321/10 = O32/679, 441/14 = O31.5/959, 234/10 = O23/766, 292/11 = O27/808, 261/11 = O24/839 TOTAL= 3,291/122 = 027 with 8,909 yards to go, (127 more than SU with three fewer possessions).

KO: 0-6 + 0-5 + 0-5 + 2-1 + 0-7 + 1-3 + 1-7 + 0-6 + 0-6 + 2-3 + 2-3 + 0-7 = 8-59
P: 0-3 + 1-3 + 0-3 + 6-4 + 0-2 + 1-0 + 0-5 + 2-3 + 3-1 + 3-0 + 1-5 + 1-2 = 18-31
FG: 0-3 + 1-0 + 0-4 + 0-0 + 0-2 + 1-1 + 0-2 + 0-1 + 1-0 + 1-1 + 0-1 + 0-1 = 4-16
XP: 0-2 + 0-4 + 0-2 + 0-2 + 0-5 + 0-2 + 0-5 + 0-3 + 0-5 + 0-3 + 0-3 + 0-5 = 0-41
Kicking plays total: 0-14 + 2-12 + 0-14 + 8-7 + 0-16 + 3-6 + 1-19 + 2-13 + 4-12 + 6-7 + 3-12 + 1-15 = 30-147

1r: 8-13 + 6-4 + 8-9 + 11-1 + 7-8 + 9-4 + 4-6 + 11-8 + 11-15 + 6-2 + 4-2 + 8-9 = 93-81
1p: 7-8 + 7-9 + 8-7 + 2-5 + 2-9 + 5-9 + 4-6 + 8-5 + 0-4 + 10-6 + 11-10 + 7-10 = 71-88
First Down Total: 15-21 + 13-13 + 16-16 + 13-6 + 9-17 + 14-13 + 8-12 + 19-13 + 11-19 + 16-8 + 15-12 + 15-19 = 164-169
2r: 1-9 + 4-7 + 5-5 + 1-2 + 5-1 + 1-5 + 3-3 + 4-10 + 6-10 + 4-5 + 4-0 + 4-5 = 42-62
2p: 5-6 + 4-8 + 6-6 + 12-2 + 4-7 + 2-4 + 2-6 + 3-8 + 3-1 + 5-4 + 8-8 + 5-10 = 59-70
Second Down Total: 6-15 + 8-15 + 11-11 + 13-4 + 9-8 + 3-9 + 5-9 + 7-18 + 9-11 + 9-9 + 12-8 + 9-15 = 101-132
3r: 1-2 + 1-4 + 2-1 + 3-1 + 1-0 + 0-0 + 3-0 + 3-4 + 3-3 + 0-2 + 1-3 + 1-4 = 19-24
3p: 5-3 + 5-4 + 6-4 + 9-1 + 3-3 + 4-1 + 3-2 + 3-1 + 6-2 + 5-6 + 9-3 + 5-2 = 63-32
Third Down Total: 6-5 + 6-8 + 8-5 + 12-2 + 4-3 + 4-1 + 6-2 + 6-5 + 9-5 + 5-8 + 10-6 + 6-6 = 82-56
4r: 0-0 + 1-0 + 0-1 + 1-0 + 0-0 + 0-0 + 0-0 + 0-0 + 0-1 + 0-0 + 0-1 + 0-0 = 2-3
4p: 0-1 + 0-1 + 0-1 + 0-0 + 0-0 + 0-1 + 0-0 + 0-0 + 0-0 + 0-0 + 0-0 + 0-0 = 0-4
Fourth Down Total: 0-1 + 1-1 + 0-2 + 1-0 + 0-0 + 0-1 + 0-0 + 0-0 + 0-1 + 0-0 + 0-1 + 0-0 = 2-7

Total on running plays: 10-24 + 12-15 + 15-16 + 16-4 + 13-9 + 10-9 + 10-9 + 18-22 + 20-29 + 10-9 + 9-6 + 13-18 = 156-170
Total on passing plays: 17-18 + 16-22 + 20-18 + 23-8 + 9-19 + 11-15 + 9-14 + 14-14 + 9-7 + 20-16 + 28-21 + 17-22 = 193-194
Total on plays from scrimmage: 27-42 + 28-37 + 35-34 + 39-12 + 22-28 + 21-24 +19-23 + 32-36 + 29-36 + 30-25 + 37-27 + 30-40 = 349-364

Penalties not tacked on to plays: 1-3 + 3-1 + 1-7 + 2-1+ 1-1 + 3-5 + 1-1 + 4-3 + 1-1 + 3-1 + 2-1 + 1-2 = 23-27

Game total when OPPONENT had the ball: 28-59 + 33-50 + 36-55 + 49-20 + 23-45 + 27-35 + 21-43 + 38-52 + 34-49 + 39-33 + 42-40 + 32-57 = 402-538

Big Plays: 7 + 9 + 4 + 5 + 5 + 9 + 6 + 4 + 4 = 53

Overall Game Total: 80-93 + 90-87 + 77-91 + 112-71 + 94-95+ 79-75 + 68-112 + 92-91 + 85-95 +105-72 + 103-80 + 93-88 = 1,078-1,050

Comments: We’ve won 676 plays with the ball and only 402 when we didn’t have it. That means we’ve run a lot more plays than they did. Staying on the field, extending and finishing drives – that’s why we are 9-3.



HISTORICAL WINNING PLAYS – The Fran Brown Era

2024
Syracuse 80 Ohio University 93 = -13
Syracuse 90 Georgia Tech 87 = +3
Syracuse 77 Stanford 91 = -14
Syracuse 112 Holy Cross 71 = +41
Syracuse 94 Nevada-Las Vegas 95 = -1
Syracuse 79 North Carolina State 75 = +4
Syracuse 68 Pittsburgh 112 = -44
Syracuse 92 Virginia Tech 91 = +1
Syracuse 85 Boston College 95 = -10
Syracuse 105 California 72 = +33
Syracuse 103 Connecticut 62 = +23
Syracuse 93 U of Miami 88 = +5
TOTAL: Syracuse: 1,078 Opponents 1,050 = +28 We’ve won 7 of 12 games, (58.3%) per ‘winning plays’ (Dino won 39.8%). We have won 50.6% of the 2,128 plays, (Dino Babers won 48.8%). Our team has achieved its goals 28 more plays than the opposition, 2.3 more plays per game.