SWC75
Bored Historian
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I’m going to use the same system I used last year to break down games from the perspective of how many times did each team get what they wanted from a play and deny the other team what they wanted. It’s basically an attempt to see if one team physically dominated the game, in which case they’d win most of the plays, or was the game decided on “big” plays, mistakes and breaks, as most games are. If you physically dominated a team, you have a chance to win a lot of games if the other things at least even out. If you weren’t physically dominated in a loss, that loss doesn’t necessarily mean you can’t win a bunch of other games on your schedule. Basically, the problems can be fixed on the practice field, not the recruiting trail or the weight room.
The formula is this: If the offense on first down, can get at least a third of the way to a first down or on second down can get at least halfway to a first down, (always round the yardage needed up), or on third or fourth down can get a first down, they won the play. If they didn’t the defense won the play. Any offensive score is a win for the offense. Any turnover is a win for the defense. If a penalty is part of the play, the yardage gained or lost just gets figured into the play’s result. Penalties that negate a play or dead ball fouls are counted separately. If a team runs the “victory” play at the end of a half or game, (it’s always a 1-2 yard loss), their goal is to maintain possession of the ball while the clock runs, not to gain yardage. So any victory play where they do that is a win for them, despite the lost yardage.
Any successful placekick is a win for the kicking team. An unsuccessful kick is a win for the defending team. Punts are evaluated by their net result only. A punt from the 50 yard line into the end zone is a 30 yard punt, not a 50 yard punt. A 53 yard punt that produces a 52 yard return is a 1 yard punt. Any punt that results in a net change in the line of scrimmage of at least 40 yards downfield or that results in the other team starting from their own twenty yard line or closer to their goal line is a win for the kicking team. The one recent new wrinkle is that kickoff touchbacks now come out to the 25 yard line. Any kickoff that results in the receiving team starting their drive from the 25 yard line or closer to their own goal line is a win for the kicking team.
I’m going to chart each game in the following manner: For each team, I’ll list the result of each kickoff, (where the other team started their possession after the kickoff), the net yardage of each punt, (if they never got the punt off note whether it was blocked or bobbled and the net yardage of the play) and the yard line it wound up on, the result of each extra point, (I’ll note if it was a two point attempt) and field goal attempt, (with the yardage noted, although that doesn’t matter in my system). I’ll also note any conversion returned for two points: I don’t think we’ve had one in our games since Pitt in 1990. Then I’ll record what happened on each first down run, first down pass, second down run and pass, third down run and pass and fourth down run and pass. If the yardage needed for a first down or a score in a goal to go situation is other than 10, I’ll note that unless the play resulted in a loss, no gain or an incomplete pass, in which case it was a win for the defense regardless of the yardage needed. If it was a ”victory play” I’ll put a ’V’ next to it. That will be a win for the offense, despite the loss. Sacks are reported under passes, not runs, just by the negative yardage. If a quarterback scrambled for positive yardage, that’s a run simply because that’s how the ESPN play-by-play, which I am using, would record it.
I’ll note the number of penalties that were not tacked onto the play and the turnovers separately. Each line will have a “score” at the end of it, stating how many plays in each category each team won. There will be a grand total at the end, followed by a brief analysis of the stats and the game.
When Syracuse Had the Ball:
KO- VL10, VL17, VL35, VL25 (SU 3 VL 1)
P- 47(VL40), 33(VL8), TD, 36(VL12), 37(VL33) (SU 3 VL2)
FG- G(38), G(22) (SU 2 VL 0)
XP- G.G.G (SU 3 VL 0)
Total for kicking game: (SU 11 VL 3)
1st rush- 4, 65TD, 4, 1, -6, 2, 2, 4, -9, 1, 7, 5(7), -5, 4, 2, 3, 10, 9, 13, -1,, 1, 3, -1 (SU 9 VL 12)
1st pass- I, 1, -8, 8(18), I, 6, 4 (SU 3 VL 4)
First Down total: SU 12 VL 16
2nd rush- 21(8), 0, -2, 2TD, 4(15), -3, 2(1), -3, 2(3) (SU 4 VL 5)
2nd pass- 4(6), 20, -8, I, I, 11, I, 6(1), 9(19), 6, 9, I, -8, 17(9) (SU 7 VL 7)
Second Down total: SU 11 VL 12
3rd run- -2, 0 (SU 0 VL 2)
3rd pass- I, 17, 13(9), I , 4, 13(6), 17(5), 12(11), I, I, I (SU 5 VL 6)
Third Down total: SU 5 VL 8
4th run- none
4th pass- 1(TD) (SU 1 VL 0)
Fourth Down total: SU 1 VL 0
Total for plays from scrimmage: SU 29 VL 36
Running plays: SU 13 VL 19
Passing plays: SU 16 VL 17
Penalties: SU 4 VL 6
Turnovers: none
Total for penalties and turnovers: SU 4 VL 6
Total when Syracuse had the ball: SU 44 VL 45
When Villanova had the Ball:
KO- SU31, SU17, SU35, SU35 (SU 3 VL 1)
P- 36(SU4), 47(SU15), 50(SU9) (SU 0 VL 3)
FG- NG(34), G(25), NG(25), G(24) (SU 2 VL 2)
XP- G, G, 2pt try-NG (SU 1 VL 2)
Total for kicking game: SU 6 VL 8
1st rush- 1, -1, -1, 4, 3, 3, 5, 5TD, 3, -1V, 4, 9, 5, 1, -1, 2(15), 2, -4, 1, 19, 5, 3, -2, 6, -4 (SU 15 VL 10)
1st pass- 13, I, 0, 7, I, -8, I, I, 9TD (SU 6 VL 3)
First Down total: SU 21 VL 13
2nd rush- 5(9), 2(11), 11(5), 4(3), 12(11),3(7), 8(5), I, -2V, 4(6), 0, 4(5), 4(7), 7(9), 5(7), 10(11), 1(11), 2(4), 3(14), 5 (SU 6 VL 14)
2nd pass- 11, I, 34(6), -2, -1, I, 11(9), 12, 27(13), I, 11(5) (SU 5 VL 6)
Second Down total: SU 11 VL 20
3rd run- 4(2), 7(1), 1(18), 5(1), 4(1), 8(8), 2(2), 2, 7(2), 4(11) (SU 3 VL 7)
3rd pass- 8(4), 15(9), -3, I, 10(11), 15(4), I, I, 5(2), 11(5) (SU 5 VL 5)
Third Down total: SU 8 VL 12)
4th run- 1(1) (SU 0 VL 1)
4th pass- none
Fourth Down total: SU 0 VL 1
Total for plays from scrimmage: SU 40 VL 46
Running plays: SU 24 VL 32
Passing plays: SU 16 VL 14
Penalties: SU 1 VL 4
Turnovers: none
Total for penalties and turnovers: SU 1 VL 4
Total when Villanova had the ball: SU 47 VL 58
Overall kicking game total: SU 17 VL 11
Overall plays from scrimmage total: SU 69 VL 85
Overall penalties and turnovers: SU 5 VL 10
Game Total: SU 91 Vl 106
Running plays: SU 37 VL 51
Passing plays: SU 32 VL 34
Comments: The numbers pretty much reflect our observations. Offensively, not only were we defeated by an FCS team, we were defeated on every down but the one fourth down play that resulted in the winning touchdown. We were defeated on both running and passing plays. It wasn’t by a large margin but an FBS team is supposed to push around and FCS team and we clearly were unable to do that. Defensively we did very well on first down but poorly on 2nd, 3rd and 4th downs. We “won” passing plays slightly but did poorly on running plays. Overall, we won 91 plays to 106, a formula for defeat, which would have been the result except we dominated in the kicking game. Their place-kicking failures cost them the game.
The formula is this: If the offense on first down, can get at least a third of the way to a first down or on second down can get at least halfway to a first down, (always round the yardage needed up), or on third or fourth down can get a first down, they won the play. If they didn’t the defense won the play. Any offensive score is a win for the offense. Any turnover is a win for the defense. If a penalty is part of the play, the yardage gained or lost just gets figured into the play’s result. Penalties that negate a play or dead ball fouls are counted separately. If a team runs the “victory” play at the end of a half or game, (it’s always a 1-2 yard loss), their goal is to maintain possession of the ball while the clock runs, not to gain yardage. So any victory play where they do that is a win for them, despite the lost yardage.
Any successful placekick is a win for the kicking team. An unsuccessful kick is a win for the defending team. Punts are evaluated by their net result only. A punt from the 50 yard line into the end zone is a 30 yard punt, not a 50 yard punt. A 53 yard punt that produces a 52 yard return is a 1 yard punt. Any punt that results in a net change in the line of scrimmage of at least 40 yards downfield or that results in the other team starting from their own twenty yard line or closer to their goal line is a win for the kicking team. The one recent new wrinkle is that kickoff touchbacks now come out to the 25 yard line. Any kickoff that results in the receiving team starting their drive from the 25 yard line or closer to their own goal line is a win for the kicking team.
I’m going to chart each game in the following manner: For each team, I’ll list the result of each kickoff, (where the other team started their possession after the kickoff), the net yardage of each punt, (if they never got the punt off note whether it was blocked or bobbled and the net yardage of the play) and the yard line it wound up on, the result of each extra point, (I’ll note if it was a two point attempt) and field goal attempt, (with the yardage noted, although that doesn’t matter in my system). I’ll also note any conversion returned for two points: I don’t think we’ve had one in our games since Pitt in 1990. Then I’ll record what happened on each first down run, first down pass, second down run and pass, third down run and pass and fourth down run and pass. If the yardage needed for a first down or a score in a goal to go situation is other than 10, I’ll note that unless the play resulted in a loss, no gain or an incomplete pass, in which case it was a win for the defense regardless of the yardage needed. If it was a ”victory play” I’ll put a ’V’ next to it. That will be a win for the offense, despite the loss. Sacks are reported under passes, not runs, just by the negative yardage. If a quarterback scrambled for positive yardage, that’s a run simply because that’s how the ESPN play-by-play, which I am using, would record it.
I’ll note the number of penalties that were not tacked onto the play and the turnovers separately. Each line will have a “score” at the end of it, stating how many plays in each category each team won. There will be a grand total at the end, followed by a brief analysis of the stats and the game.
When Syracuse Had the Ball:
KO- VL10, VL17, VL35, VL25 (SU 3 VL 1)
P- 47(VL40), 33(VL8), TD, 36(VL12), 37(VL33) (SU 3 VL2)
FG- G(38), G(22) (SU 2 VL 0)
XP- G.G.G (SU 3 VL 0)
Total for kicking game: (SU 11 VL 3)
1st rush- 4, 65TD, 4, 1, -6, 2, 2, 4, -9, 1, 7, 5(7), -5, 4, 2, 3, 10, 9, 13, -1,, 1, 3, -1 (SU 9 VL 12)
1st pass- I, 1, -8, 8(18), I, 6, 4 (SU 3 VL 4)
First Down total: SU 12 VL 16
2nd rush- 21(8), 0, -2, 2TD, 4(15), -3, 2(1), -3, 2(3) (SU 4 VL 5)
2nd pass- 4(6), 20, -8, I, I, 11, I, 6(1), 9(19), 6, 9, I, -8, 17(9) (SU 7 VL 7)
Second Down total: SU 11 VL 12
3rd run- -2, 0 (SU 0 VL 2)
3rd pass- I, 17, 13(9), I , 4, 13(6), 17(5), 12(11), I, I, I (SU 5 VL 6)
Third Down total: SU 5 VL 8
4th run- none
4th pass- 1(TD) (SU 1 VL 0)
Fourth Down total: SU 1 VL 0
Total for plays from scrimmage: SU 29 VL 36
Running plays: SU 13 VL 19
Passing plays: SU 16 VL 17
Penalties: SU 4 VL 6
Turnovers: none
Total for penalties and turnovers: SU 4 VL 6
Total when Syracuse had the ball: SU 44 VL 45
When Villanova had the Ball:
KO- SU31, SU17, SU35, SU35 (SU 3 VL 1)
P- 36(SU4), 47(SU15), 50(SU9) (SU 0 VL 3)
FG- NG(34), G(25), NG(25), G(24) (SU 2 VL 2)
XP- G, G, 2pt try-NG (SU 1 VL 2)
Total for kicking game: SU 6 VL 8
1st rush- 1, -1, -1, 4, 3, 3, 5, 5TD, 3, -1V, 4, 9, 5, 1, -1, 2(15), 2, -4, 1, 19, 5, 3, -2, 6, -4 (SU 15 VL 10)
1st pass- 13, I, 0, 7, I, -8, I, I, 9TD (SU 6 VL 3)
First Down total: SU 21 VL 13
2nd rush- 5(9), 2(11), 11(5), 4(3), 12(11),3(7), 8(5), I, -2V, 4(6), 0, 4(5), 4(7), 7(9), 5(7), 10(11), 1(11), 2(4), 3(14), 5 (SU 6 VL 14)
2nd pass- 11, I, 34(6), -2, -1, I, 11(9), 12, 27(13), I, 11(5) (SU 5 VL 6)
Second Down total: SU 11 VL 20
3rd run- 4(2), 7(1), 1(18), 5(1), 4(1), 8(8), 2(2), 2, 7(2), 4(11) (SU 3 VL 7)
3rd pass- 8(4), 15(9), -3, I, 10(11), 15(4), I, I, 5(2), 11(5) (SU 5 VL 5)
Third Down total: SU 8 VL 12)
4th run- 1(1) (SU 0 VL 1)
4th pass- none
Fourth Down total: SU 0 VL 1
Total for plays from scrimmage: SU 40 VL 46
Running plays: SU 24 VL 32
Passing plays: SU 16 VL 14
Penalties: SU 1 VL 4
Turnovers: none
Total for penalties and turnovers: SU 1 VL 4
Total when Villanova had the ball: SU 47 VL 58
Overall kicking game total: SU 17 VL 11
Overall plays from scrimmage total: SU 69 VL 85
Overall penalties and turnovers: SU 5 VL 10
Game Total: SU 91 Vl 106
Running plays: SU 37 VL 51
Passing plays: SU 32 VL 34
Comments: The numbers pretty much reflect our observations. Offensively, not only were we defeated by an FCS team, we were defeated on every down but the one fourth down play that resulted in the winning touchdown. We were defeated on both running and passing plays. It wasn’t by a large margin but an FBS team is supposed to push around and FCS team and we clearly were unable to do that. Defensively we did very well on first down but poorly on 2nd, 3rd and 4th downs. We “won” passing plays slightly but did poorly on running plays. Overall, we won 91 plays to 106, a formula for defeat, which would have been the result except we dominated in the kicking game. Their place-kicking failures cost them the game.
