Winning Plays: Virginia Tech

[SWC75]

This season I will once again be charting Syracuse’s games in terms of “winning plays”. I look at the results of each play and decide which team got the minimum they wanted out of the play. Rather than making instinctive judgments, I use a formula:

- On first down, the offensive team wants to get at least a third of the way to a new first down: they will have two more games before they might have to surrender the ball and if they gain that same amount of yards on each of those two plays, they’ll get the first down. If they don’t make it a third of the way to a new first down, the defense won the play.
- On second down, the offense wants to get halfway to a new first down by the same logic.
- On third and fourth down, they want to get the new first down.
- Penalties, if added onto a play by the referees, are added on to the results above. If the offense gains 5 yards on first down but there was holding and they lost yardage instead, the defense won the play. If a running back made a 20 yard run on first and ten and the holding was 15 yards downfield, turning it into a 5 yard gain, that’s still a win for the offense. If the defense is penalized and it’s tacked on, again the net result is what is evaluated.
- If a penalty was not tacked onto a play, it’s a lost play for the team being penalized. I'll count them separate from the other plays from scrimmage because I don't know if the intended play before the penalty would have been a run or a pass - so i wouldn't know where to put it in the chart below.
- A turnover is, obviously, a win for the team that wound up with the ball.
- On a kick-off a touchback brings the ball out to the 25 yard line. Teams still seem to be trying to kick the ball into the end zone and avoid a runback if they can, so any kick-off that results in the receiving team starting between their goal line and their 25 is a win for the kicking team.
- On a punt, a touchback takes the ball out of the 20. So any punt that results in the other team taking over from their goal line to their 20 is a win for the punting team. If the next change in field positon is at least 40 yards, the punting tam has also won the play.
- A successful place kick is, obviously a win for the kicking team.
- Any play that results in a touchdown is, obviously, a win for that team that scores it.
- A “victory play” where a team accepts a loss just to let the clock run out, is a win for the offensive team.

I will indicate in parenthesis how many yards there were to go to get a new first down, (if other than 10), unless it was for no gain or negative yardage. If it was a touchdown, (“TD)” a sack (“S”) a victory play (“V”) or involved a penalty (P). I’m undecided about whether to count a scramble as a running play or passing play. For now, I’ll count it as a running play and put an ‘S’ next to it in case I change my mind. Thus an S in running plays is a scramble, an S in passing plays a sack. 1R means first down running plays. 1P means first down passing plays, etc.

When SYRACUSE had the ball:

KO: VT 25, VT 25, VT 48, VT 18, VT 8
Total: Syracuse 4 Virginia Tech 1
P: 43 to VT 32, 57 to VT 24, 47 to VT 17
Total: Syracuse 3 Virginia Tech 0
FG: Blocked, Good from 51, No Good from 51
Total: Syracuse 1 Virginia Tech 2
XP: Good, Good, Good, Good
Total: Syracuse 4 Virginia Tech 0
Kicking plays total: Syracuse 12 Virginia Tech 3

1r: -1, 5, 0, 12(S), -1, 4, -1, 1, 7(15), 2(1), -10, 0, 5(S), 4, 3, 2, 0, 9 -2(V)
Total: Syracuse 9 Virginia Tech 10
1p: 6, I, 3(15), 5, 5, I, I, 11(14), 10, I, 12, I, I, 22, I, 0, I, I, 9, I, I, 6, I
Total: Syracuse 9 Virginia Tech 14
First Down Total: Syracuse 18 Virginia Tech 24
2r: 1(S), 7, 3(5), 1, 5(5), 6(3), 3(11), 2(S5), 1, 9(9), 8(20), 7(S), 2(3), 18, 16TD, 4(8), 11(10), 1(1)
Total: Syracuse 12 Virginia Tech 6
2p: 7(11), I, 84TD, 10(15), I, 5(11), 10(6), I, 16, I, I, 8, I, I
Total: Syracuse 6 Virginia Tech 8
Second Down Total: Syracuse 18 Virginia Tech 14
3r: -4, 5(S), 1TD, 5(4)
Total: Syracuse 2 Virginia Tech 2
3p: 4(3), 58TD, 6(3), I, I, I, I, I, 18(6), 9(8), -2(S), interception, I, 4(2), 11(3), 8(10), 9(5)
Total: Syracuse 8 Virginia Tech 9
Third Down Total: Syracuse 10 Virginia Tech 11
4r: 0
Total: Syracuse 0 Virginia Tech 1
4p: 31(5), 8, 4(3), 5(2)
Total: Syracuse 4 Virginia Tech 0
Fourth Down Total: Syracuse 4 Virginia Tech 1

Total on running plays: Syracuse 23 Virginia Tech 19
Total on passing plays: Syracuse 27 Virginia Tech 31
Total on plays from scrimmage: Syracuse 50 Virginia Tech 50

Penalties not tacked on to plays: -6, -5, -5, +1, -4, +5, -5, +5 Syracuse 3 Virginia Tech 5
(Both the SU and ESPN play by play has our first penalty – on the second drive of the first quarter- -6 yards from the SU 33 to the SU 26 for false start and our last penalty of the half -at the beginning of our second to last possession – to be -4 yards from SU 13 to the SU 9, also for false start. Neither would have bene a “half the distance to the goal” situation. Maybe the referees stepped off the wrong yardage and the people keeping track just used the yardage they saw? Anyway it evened out, I guess.)

Game total when SYRACUSE had the ball: Syracuse 65 Virginia Tech 58

Comment: Other than the long missed field goals, our kicking teams were back on the beam (12-3). We really didn’t dominate from scrimmage. It’s just that our good plays outweighed our bad plays. The big thing is we got 32 first downs and so were able to keep the ball and wear them down, leading to our fourth quarter successes. Dungey had 25 incomplete passes, many of them intentional. He had 12 on first down, 7 on second down, 6 on third down, (five in a row and then just one in the last 9 third down passes, and none in his 4 fourth down throws. It wasn’t that he was inaccurate. It was that he wasn’t going to force anything and he wanted to minimize the hits he took. He took plenty of them anyway, and no thanks to the refs since some of them were on those balls he threw away.


When VIRGINIA TECH had the ball:

KO: SU 25, SU 11(P), SU 25, SU 25
Total: Syracuse 0 Virginia Tech 4
P: 51 to SU 20, 37 to SU 35, 30 to SU 11, 50 to SU 13
Total: Syracuse 1 Virginia Tech 3
FG: Good from 36, No Good from 45
Total: Syracuse 1 Virginia Tech 1
XP: Blocked, Try for Two- Good
Total: Syracuse 1 Virginia Tech 1
Kicking plays total: Syracuse 3 Virginia Tech 9

1r: -2, 0, -3, 8, 4, 16(s), 1, 9, 3(S), -2, 9, 7, 1, 6, 1, 2, 4, 6, Fumble
Total: Syracuse 10 Virginia Tech 9
1p: -2(S), I, 20, 12, I, I, I, 21, 12TD, I, I, I, I
Total: Syracuse 9 Virginia Tech 4
First Down Total: Syracuse 19 Virginia Tech 13
2r: 2(12), 5, 1(15), 4, 4(2), 0, 9, 2, 3(12), 10(1), 1(4), 6(4), 15, -1
Total: Syracuse 7 Virginia Tech 7
2p: 13(12), I, 29(1), 4(7), 9(3), 13, 52(9), 27(8), 10TD, 10(6), 6(4)
Total: Syracuse 1 Virginia Tech 10
Second Down Total: Syracuse 8 Virginia Tech 17
3r: 8(12), 0, 2(3), 14(9)
Total: Syracuse 1 Virginia Tech 3
3p: 4, 27(5), I, 2(6), 16(9), 15(8), I, Interception, I
Total: Syracuse 5 Virginia Tech 3
Third Down Total: Syracuse 6 Virginia Tech 6
4r: -2
Total: Syracuse 1 Virginia Tech 0
4p: None
Total: Syracuse 0 Virginia Tech 0
Fourth Down Total: Syracuse 1 Virginia Tech 0

Total on running plays: Syracuse 19 Virginia Tech 19
Total on passing plays: Syracuse 15 Virginia Tech 17
Total on plays from scrimmage: Syracuse 34 Virginia Tech 36

Penalties not tacked on to plays: -10, +5 Syracuse 1 Virginia Tech 1

Game total when VIRGINIA TECH had the ball: Syracuse 38 Virginia Tech 46

Overall Game Total: Syracuse 103 Virginia Tech 104

Comments: Again, we did not dominate Virginia Tech. We dominated Colgate. We competed with Virginia Tech. We got first downs and some big plays went our way instead of the other team’s way. That’s how most games are won, at least against quality opposition. It’s interesting that we were good against 1st down passes, (9-4), which are hard to defend, since you don’t expect them, and good against third down passes, (5-3), which are vitally important because if you can stop them, you are likely to get the ball back, but horrible against second down passes, (1-10 and 173 yards surrendered). I don’t know why we were so bad on second down but fortunately we only gave up one TD in those situations.

 

[SWC75]

GAME BY GAME and TOTALS FOR THE YEAR

When SYRACUSE had the ball:

KO: 5-3, 3-1, 3-2, 3-2, 1-5, 2-0, 4-1 = 21-14
P: 3-0, 8-4, 3-2, 2-3, 6-3, 6-4, 3-0 = 31-16
FG: 4-0, 0-1, 2-0, 1-2, 0-1, 0-0, 1-2 = 8-6
XP: 3-0, 4-0, 2-0, 4-0, 3-2, 1-0, 4-0 = 21-2
Kicking plays total: 15-3, 15-6, 10-4, 10-7, 10-11, 9-4, 12-3 = 81-38

1r: 5-10, 6-12, 11-14, 4-11, 6-8, 4-11, 9-10 = 45-76
1p: 12-7, 8-12, 7-10, 9-5, 14-10, 6-7, 9-14 = 65-65
First Down Total: 17-17, 14-24, 18-24, 13-16, 20-18, 10-18, 18-24 = 110-141
2r: 3-8, 5-7, 9-9, 1-4, 8-6, 5-9, 12-6 = 43-49
2p: 8-7, 8-13, 8-5, 9-8, 9-7, 3-4, 6-8 = 51-52
Second Down Total: 11-15, 13-20, 17-14, 10-12, 17-13, 8-13, 18-14 = 94-101
3r: 3-3, 6-1, 2-6, 3-2, 2-5, 3-4, 2-2 = 21-23
3p: 6-6, 6-9, 13-4, 6-4, 1-8, 2-7, 8-9 = 42-47
Third Down Total: 9-9, 12-10, 15-10, 9-6, 3-13, 5-11, 10-11 = 63-70
4r: 1-0, 0-0, 1-1, 0-0, 1-0, 0-0, 0-1 = 3-2
4p: 2-0, 0-1, 1-2, 0-0, 0-0, 1-0, 4-0 = 8-3
Fourth Down Total: 3-0, 0-1, 2-3, 0-0, 1-0, 1-0, 4-1 =11-5

Total on running plays: 12-21, 17-20, 23-30, 8-17, 17-19, 12-24, 23-19 = 112-150
Total on passing plays: 28-20, 22-35, 29-21, 24-17, 24-25, 12-18, 27-31 = 166-167
Total on plays from scrimmage: 40-41, 39-55, 52-51, 32-34, 41-44, 24-42, 50-50 = 278-317

Penalties not tacked on to plays: 0-4, 3-3, 2-7, 0-2, 2-4, 0-3, 3-5 = 10-28

Game total when SYRACUSE had the ball: 55-48, 57-64, 64-62, 42-43, 53-59, 33-49, 65-58 = -369-383

Comment: Our high-powered offense runs a lot of plays but is so far winning only 46% of the plays from scrimmage. First down runs are the biggest problem, (36-66). We had been doing well on third down through four games (45-35) but are (8-24) since, mostly due to a poor record on third down passes (3-15). Strangely we are doing fairly well on third and fourth down runs, (22-22). Our overall fourth down record is good (7-4), suggesting we might try it more often.


When OPPONENT had the ball:

KO: 0-2, 2-8, 2-6, 3-2, 2-7, 1-5, 0-4 = 10-34
P: 4-7, 1-5, 1-5, 1-4, 4-1, 2-5, 1-3 = 14-30
FG: 0-0, 1-2, 0-1, 0-1, 1-2, 0-0, 1-1 = 3-7
XP: 0-1, 0-8, 0-6, 0-3, 0-6, 0-4, 1-1 = 1-29
Kicking plays total: 4-10, 4-23, 3-18, 4-10, 7-16, 3-14, 3-9 = 28-100

1r: 10-4, 6-20, 4-12, 9-11, 14-5, 9-10, 10-9 = 62-71
1p: 4-4, 8-9, 7-8, 9-5, 7-13, 5-8, 9-4 = 49-51
First Down Total: 14-8, 14-29, 11-20, 18-16, 21-18, 14-18, 19-13 = 111-122
2r: 9-3, 4-6, 4-8, 5-8, 2-8, 9-8, 7-7 = 40-48
2p: 6-0, 8-4, 4-2, 8-9, 5-6, 3-2, 1-10 = 35-33
Second Down Total: 15-3, 12-10, 8-10, 13-17, 7-14, 12-10, 8-17 = 75-81
3r: 0-2, 1-3, 1-2, 4-2, 2-1, 6-5, 1-3 = 15-18
3p: 11-3, 8-3, 7-2, 8-7, 6-1, 3-4, 5-3 = 48-23
Third Down Total: 11-5, 9-6, 8-4, 12-9, 8-2, 9-9, 6-6 = 63-41
4r: 0-0, 0-0, 0-1, 1-2, 0-0, 1-0, 1-0 = 3-3
4p: 0-0, 0-0, 0-0, 1-2, 1-0, 0-0, 0-0 = 2-2
Fourth Down Total: 0-0, 0-0, 0-1, 2-4, 1-0, 1-0, 1-0 = 5-5

Total on running plays: 19-9, 11-29, 9-23, 19-23, 18-14, 25-23, 19-19 = 120-140
Total on passing plays: 21-7, 24-16, 18-12, 26-23, 19-20, 11-14, 15-17 = 134-109
Total on plays from scrimmage: 40-16, 35-45, 27-35, 45-46, 37-34, 36-, 34-36 = 254-249

Penalties not tacked on to plays: 2-0, 3-0, 1-1, 0-0, 1-2, 0-1, 1-1 = 8-5

Game total when OPPONENT had the ball: 46-26, 42-68, 31-54, 49-56, 45-52, 39-52, 38-46 = 290-354

Overall Game Total: 101-74, 99-132, 95-116, 91-99, 98-111, 72-101, 103-104 = 659-737

Comment: Incredibly we have won more defensive plays from scrimmage than offensive plays (252-228), although that is skewed by the Colgate game, (when we were 40-16 on defense). Still, we haven’t been beaten by an opponent that dominated play after play. It’s mostly the big plays from scrimmage and the special teams breakdowns that have hurt us. Ironically, considering our obvious problems defending passes we are excellent against this down passes (43-20).

 

[SWC75]

HISTORICAL WINNING PLAYS
(Game totals only- games we ‘won’ are in bold)

2011
Syracuse 101 Wake Forest 87
Syracuse 92 Rhode Island 65
Syracuse 75 USC 90
Syracuse 96 Toledo 88
Syracuse 103 Rutgers 99
Syracuse 79 Tulane 99
Syracuse 90 West Virginia 84
Syracuse 74 Louisville 83
Syracuse 84 Connecticut 86
Syracuse 92 South Florida 106
Syracuse 83 Cincinnati 104
Syracuse 87 Pittsburgh 93
TOTAL: Syracuse 1,056 Opponents 1,117 We 'won' 4 of 12 games.

2012
Syracuse 105 Northwestern 116
Syracuse 92 USC 98
Syracuse 93 Stony Brook 82
Syracuse 82 Minnesota 95
Syracuse 85 Pittsburgh 76
Syracuse 93 Rutgers 73
Syracuse 103 Connecticut 70
Syracuse 115 South Florida 92
Syracuse 96 Cincinnati 122
Syracuse 103 Louisville 86
Syracuse 92 Missouri 98
Syracuse 98 Temple 81
Syracuse 105 West Virginia 82
TOTAL: Syracuse 1,262 Opponents 1,171 We 'won' 8 of 13 games.

2013
Syracuse 75 Penn State 113
Syracuse 92 Northwestern 114
Syracuse 115 Wagner 52
Syracuse 107 Tulane 76
Syracuse 64 Clemson 136
Syracuse 111 N C State 85
Syracuse 46 Georgia Tech 113
Syracuse 108 Wake Forest 81
Syracuse 92 Maryland 88
Syracuse 55 Florida State 104
Syracuse 80 Pittsburgh 96
Syracuse 100 Boston College 87
Syracuse 99 Minnesota 79
TOTAL: Syracuse 1,144 Opponents 1,224 We 'won' 7 of 13 games.

2014
Syracuse 91 Villanova 103
Syracuse 99 Central Michigan 76
Syracuse 91 Maryland 91
Syracuse 71 Notre Dame 114
Syracuse 71 Louisville 100
Syracuse 80 Florida State 101
Syracuse 86 Wake Forest 77
Syracuse 75 Clemson 102
Syracuse 92 N C State 101
Syracuse 78 Duke 98
Syracuse 46 Pittsburgh 114
Syracuse 72 Boston College 78
TOTAL: Syracuse 952 Opponents 1,155 We 'won' 2 of 12 games, with one even.

2015
Syracuse 96 Rhode Island 56
Syracuse 83 Wake Forest 83
Syracuse 84 Central Michigan 91
Syracuse 84 Louisiana State 89
Syracuse 80 South Florida 93
Syracuse 86 Virginia 97
Syracuse 70 Pittsburgh 89
Syracuse 84 Florida State 100
Syracuse 74 Louisville 110
Syracuse 83 Clemson 105
Syracuse 78 North Carolina State 100
Syracuse 89 Boston College 78
TOTAL: Syracuse 991 Opponents 1091 We 'won' 2 of 12 games with one even.

2016
Syracuse 101 Colgate 74
Syracuse 99 Louisville 132
Syracuse 95 South Florida 116
Syracuse 91 Connecticut 99
Syracuse 98 Notre Dame 111
Syracuse 72 Wake Forest 101
Syracuse 103 Virginia Tech 104
TOTAL: Syracuse 659 Opponent 737 We've 'won' 1 of 7 games.

Totals since 2011: Syracuse has won 6,358 plays, (48.3%) and 25 games, (37.3%). The opposition has won 6,817 plays and 42 games with 2 games even.

 

[upperdeck]

one thing this doesnt do is handle big plays or little plays.. so long plays count as 1 win no matter if they are a score and short plays count as losses.. so for instance 1st and goal at the one a 1 play score is good a 4 play score is bad. its still a score. same for 4th down plays.. you can have 3 avg plays that are not quite 1/3, 3yds, 2yds, 1 yd and make a 4th and 5 and you lose the play game but you have won the war.

 

[SWC75]

one thing this doesnt do is handle big plays or little plays.. so long plays count as 1 win no matter if they are a score and short plays count as losses.. so for instance 1st and goal at the one a 1 play score is good a 4 play score is bad. its still a score. same for 4th down plays.. you can have 3 avg plays that are not quite 1/3, 3yds, 2yds, 1 yd and make a 4th and 5 and you lose the play game but you have won the war.

Very true. I'm first trying to determine if one team actually dominated the game by winning a significant majority of the plays or if the game was competitive in that sense but the difference would be found elsewhere. Then you look at long plays, red zone efficiency, special teams foul -ups or big plays, penalties and were the good plays 'bunched' like a baseball team bunching it's hits. This is intended to be the start of the analysis, not the end of it. it also enable us to focus on problem areas like first down runs, third down passes, etc.

 

[Shark58]

#fancystats

 

[SWC75]

#fancystats